GoT Mafia Game 70.5 - Jingle Hell

[House Targaryen]

Oh yeah, it's night, send in your PM's.

[House Dondarrion]

Oh, and I've just realised that so long as Santa is innocent the game doesn't end if Mini is innocent. So long as the Ventriloquist's Doll goes to an innocent tonight the innocents can still lynch tomorrow...

Although, I'm not sure if there's any scenario in which we'd be able to lynch the following day. Hmm...

If Mini is innocent then tomorrow we have six players and three baddies, plus the extra vote.

If we lynched a baddie, and they have a NK we're down to four and two the next day so we'd still be screwed. We'd have to prevent a NK somewhere for this to work.

*sigh* I don't think it's actually possible.

[House Dondarrion]

Hey! Woohoo! Good old Grumpyjack.

[House Dondarrion]

{Mini Me, Bashful, Dopey}**

{Mini Me, Dopey, Tyrion L}*

{Mini Me, Dopey, Happy}*

{Mini Me, Bashful, Happy}*

{Mini Me, Alberich, Bashful}**

{Mini Me, Alberich, Dopey}*

{Mini Me, Alberich, Happy}*

{Mini Me, Alberich, Tyrion L}*

{Mini Me, Alberich, Sneezy}**

{Mini Me, Sneezy, Tyrion L}

{Mini Me, Dopey, Sneezy}

{Mini Me, Happy, Sneezy}

I'm posting this list for my own reference and in case I die. It's an overly complete list of possible trios. The only ones I've cut out are the ones I consider conclusively disproven by Grumpy and the ones that include me. Trios mark with one star were ruled out by Grumpy and trios marked with two stars are in his second tier of suspects. There may be mistakes in this list. I'll check it but I want to post it quickly in case it's a short night that results in my death.

ETA: To fix the stars. They should be correct now.

[House Targaryen]

Night falls, and everyone heads right to sleep. Except for Alberich.

She stays up for a few more hours, sobbing. "Poor, dear Grumpy," she cries. "Why did it have to be you?! So young, so wonderful. So unfair. Oh how I miss you. It is unbearable..." Eventually, she drifts off into sleep...but her rest is plagued by terrifying nightmares of a world with no Grumpy.

Fortunately, those dreams soon come to an end.

Unfortunately, the end is the result of her death by strangulation.

Worst of all, she never got to see the present that Santa left for her under the tree....

Alberich was Gertrude, an innocent Dwarf.

------------

It is day 5.

6 players remain: Bashful, Dopey, Happy, Sleeppy, Sneezy, Tyrion L.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or 4 to go to night.

6 players have not voted: Bashful, Dopey, Happy, Sleeppy, Sneezy, Tyrion L.

[House Dondarrion]

Bloody buggery hell.

Well, at least my trust hasn't been misplaced this game.

My list is also now much shorter:

{Mini Me, Bashful, Dopey}**

{Mini Me, Dopey, Tyrion L}*

{Mini Me, Dopey, Happy}*

{Mini Me, Bashful, Happy}*

{Mini Me, Sneezy, Tyrion L}

{Mini Me, Dopey, Sneezy}

{Mini Me, Happy, Sneezy}

I'm going to be gone for quite a few hours now. Grumpy's list says to kill Sneezy, Gert's plan was to kill Dopey. It all needs some thought put into it.

One question, before I go. Sneezy, if you're a guard, and we lynch an FM today, your power becomes useful tonight. Any thoughts on why they didn't lynch you? Gert was the most generally trusted, sure, but if you're innocent you have the power to alter the game.

[House Dayne]

I was not dreaming of Grumpy. And I never cried. He is delusional.

*dies again*

[House Baratheon]

I thought we were supposed to use full 48 hours? Well, never mind.

Pairings left:

1) Mini – Sneezy – Dopey

2) Mini – Sneezy – Tyrion

3) Mini – Sneezy – Happy

4) Mini – Sneezy – Sleepy

5) Mini – Dopey – Sleepy

7) Mini – Dopey – Bashful

8) Mini – Dopey – Tyrion

Obvious choice is Sneezy or Dopey. I dislike both. Can't make a decision before Dopey will post.

[House Tully]

I thought we were supposed to use full 48 hours? Well, never mind.

Pairings left:

1) Mini – Sneezy – Dopey

2) Mini – Sneezy – Tyrion

3) Mini – Sneezy – Happy

4) Mini – Sneezy – Sleepy

5) Mini – Dopey – Sleepy

7) Mini – Dopey – Bashful

8) Mini – Dopey – Tyrion

Obvious choice is Sneezy or Dopey. I dislike both. Can't make a decision before Dopey will post.

What do you think about the NK? That has been completely senseless.

I still trust Sneezy. Not going to lynch him under any crircumstances.

The next lynch should be Dopey or you. Have to look at my analysis again before I make a decision, but I'm leaning towards Dopey right now.

[House Tully]

My updated list of possible FM trios:

Happy,Sleepy,Mini

Happy,Sleepy,Dopey

Happy,Mini,Dopey

Happy,Mini,Alberich

Happy,Dopey,Alberich

Sleepy,Mini,Dopey

Mini,Dopey,Alberich

Mini,Dopey,Tyrion

Btw, I think that the FM have Santa's bag. It's too unlikely that they hit a player who got a gift twice in a row.

[House Tully]

Happy,

since I believe that Sleepy didn't comment it, could you explain why WJ excluded the pairing Sleepy-Happy?

I'd also like to get feedback (from everyone) for my Analysis 1.1 and my voting pattern analysis. I will soon update the latter.

[House Baratheon]

What do you think about the NK? That has been completely senseless.

Yes; they should kill Sneezy. If he is innocent, of course. The fact they haven't is another argument agains Sneezy.

Though, the kill is favorable for Dopey also. With Sneezy dead, he would obvious next lynch.

Btw, I think that the FM have Santa's bag.

Agreed.

Note that New Year is same thing for us here that Christmas for you all. So now it's my turn to be barely online for next 42-44 hours. I'll definitely return close to time limit. So I kindly ask you all to spend full day length this time. I'd like to be present at the moment of the lynch at least once in this game.

[House Baratheon]

since I believe that Sleepy didn't comment it, could you explain why WJ excluded the pairing Sleepy-Happy?

Because I very actively defended Sleeppy through days 1-2. WJ knows I am heavy supporter of strong distancing.

I'd also like to get feedback (from everyone) for my Analysis 1.1 and my voting pattern analysis.

Sorry, but you in fact ruined WJ's theory. The presumption of two FM being on first mob was lockstone of his analysis, starting point from where he moved. By declining it you just make all this analysis talk senseless.

[House Tully]

Because I very actively defended Sleeppy through days 1-2. WJ knows I am heavy supporter of strong distancing.

Ah, now I remember that. Still can't find this comment inhis posts. <_<

Have to think about this.

Sorry, but you in fact ruined WJ's theory. The presumption of two FM being on first mob was lockstone of his analysis, starting point from where he moved. By declining it you just make all this analysis talk senseless.

This is not true. The Analysis 1.0 and the voting pattern analysis are two different things. The only thing my theory says is that Dopey could still be partnered to you. The Analysis 1.0 still works, but the voting pattern analysis has one more element and is significantly changed.

As you're innocent, do you think the Oompaah kill makes a Tyrion-Dopey partnership impossible?

[House Tully]

I'm willing to exclude a Sleepy-Happy partnership because of this comment by Sleepy.

Happy, can you explain why you came to the same solution as WJ? Did you make exactly the same mistakes when you made your analysis?

If I dismiss a Sleepy-Happy partnership, I have three remaining scenarios:

Happy-Mini-Dopey

Sleepy-Mini-Dopey

Mini-Dopey-Tyrion

As Gert has already pointed out, Sleepy had been ranking Mini over Doc when WJ asked us abiut our lynch favs. That's why I'm almost willing to give Sleepy a free pass.

Dopey is in all remaining scenarios, so Im going to vote for gim today. I'm willing to wait for the lynch until Happy returns.

The remaining partner should be either Happy or Tyrion.

[House Baratheon]

This is not true. The Analysis 1.0 and the voting pattern analysis are two different things. The only thing my theory says is that Dopey could still be partnered to you. The Analysis 1.0 still works, but the voting pattern analysis has one more element and is significantly changed.

I answered by memory. Sorry, no time for any sort of reread.

As you're innocent, do you think the Oompaah kill makes a Tyrion-Dopey partnership impossible?

No.

Happy, can you explain why you came to the same solution as WJ? Did you make exactly the same mistakes when you made your analysis?

I didn't gather information myself. Please reread that part of day in full. Before posting his first 22 variants, WJ posted brief preliminary review which in fact contained those 22 variants in a nutshell. Starting from same basement, I came to same conclusions naturally. Later he widened his basement.

Moreover, about half of next 18 variants included me, so it would be strange if I counted them.

[House Velaryon]

Btw, I think that the FM have Santa's bag. It's too unlikely that they hit a player who got a gift twice in a row.

It doesn't make any sense. Why would they gift the player they wanted to kill? I speculate that an innocent Santa gifted Alberich because he thought I would die tonight.

[House Clegane]

Yes; they should kill Sneezy. If he is innocent, of course. The fact they haven't is another argument agains Sneezy.

Though, the kill is favorable for Dopey also. With Sneezy dead, he would obvious next lynch.

Agreed.

The NK was logical - a guard (if Sneezy tells the truth can't hurt them yet, whereas Gert, the most trusted player, could. Although now I think about it assuming we lynch a bad guy tonight there'll only be one left, who can be guarded. If a lone FM tries to kill Sneezy tonight and Sneezy guards them, what happens? Then again, the FM might just be betting on SNeezy guessing wrong, or not being around or something.

Bash, you're partner analysis leaves Happy-Sleepy, Happy-Dopey and Sleepy-Dopey right? (excluding Alby and myself from the trios that included Mini)

Now you say Sleepy and Happy aren't partnered, so that leaves Dopey-Happy or Dopey-Sleepy. Pretty clear lynch for today should be Dopey. If we must take the full time for Happy's benefit, okay, but my mind is made up for today, barring some extreme revelation.

[House Velaryon]

The NK was logical - a guard (if Sneezy tells the truth can't hurt them yet, whereas Gert, the most trusted player, could.

How is that so? If we lynch an FM today and I guard someone, and a night kill happens, then we have a CI. That drastically increases our chances.

[House Tully]

The NK was logical - a guard (if Sneezy tells the truth can't hurt them yet, whereas Gert, the most trusted player, could. Although now I think about it assuming we lynch a bad guy tonight there'll only be one left, who can be guarded. If a lone FM tries to kill Sneezy tonight and Sneezy guards them, what happens? Then again, the FM might just be betting on SNeezy guessing wrong, or not being around or something.

Bash, you're partner analysis leaves Happy-Sleepy, Happy-Dopey and Sleepy-Dopey right? (excluding Alby and myself from the trios that included Mini)

Now you say Sleepy and Happy aren't partnered, so that leaves Dopey-Happy or Dopey-Sleepy. Pretty clear lynch for today should be Dopey. If we must take the full time for Happy's benefit, okay, but my mind is made up for today, barring some extreme revelation.

First you complain that you don't want to follow WJ's logic blindly, but now you follow mine. Is this your New Year's pledge or did you just make a 180 turnaround regarding your valuation of independent thinking? :shocked: