AGoT Mafia 71 - Rebellion in Hell

[Magic Mirror]

Another small pointer:

We shouldn't forget the Beelzebub kill (which we know was FM). Consider the following tiers:

Okay, let's start with tiers:

Most suspicious: Leviathon, Asmodeus, Berith, Mammon

Moderate suspicion: Belial, Astorath, Baphomet, Azazel, Lady Gaga

Less suspicion: Mephistopheles, Belphagor

I think this makes it very unlikely that neither Leviathan nor Mammon is a FM. It's also a very good point in favor of Mephisto and Belphegor.

On Leviathan's play thus far... I just think it's extremely wacky. I can't get my head round it to decide what to think of him. Most anything he says makes extremely little sense to me. I'd have to say his game is pretty atypical for an FM, though.

[House Corbray]

Sorry, didn't have the time to post and will be away for roughly 5 hours. :frown5:

[Lady Gaga]

I'd like to hear frome everyone what he thinks about the nightkill.

I think either the SK was Mammon and is dead, or a kill was blocked. Maybe Bel was a guard or healer since no one else has claimed a role. If Bel was a healer he probably would have healed Bapho as he was most likely to be killed. I agree that if the kill was SK then they may have left Bapho for the FM. The FM could have tried to kill the SK, if the SK is someone who they didn't think likely to be so and was a threat to them also, but it's not as likely. I don't think it's likely that all FM are dead. I can see why it's likely that Mammon was partnered with Asta, but I'm keeping an open mind.

[House Wythers]

Hmmm... okay, I'm back from my sleep and will put some time into the game now.

It's nice to see you around Lady Gaga, and I'd really like you to give us your read on where we are now and who you think we should lynch and why.

We're up far away creek without a paddle.

Really.

We've had three lynch attempts, and killed nobody evil. We got a modkill and a vig kill to get us into an OK position, but even after 3 lynches, everyone still looks suspicious? It would be even worse if you'd died last night and Belial was still here.

Today, I'm going to go with the clever plan - assume the SK is dead, look for the 2 FM's. SK can't kill tonight anyway, and right now a team of 2 is more dangerous than two teams of 1. Unfortunately, I only have half an hour left before another stretch of unavailability.

Someone do something really angelic quick. I don't have much time.

[House Dayne]

Belph, I am starting to think it's you (partnered with Mammon?).

Why you totally ignored my argument that Levi's vote on Bapho makes innocent?

I didn't ignore it - in fact, I made a post about your argument, in which I asked if you are symping Lev. I think that should give you an indication of how I feel about the argument. I don't think it is very strong.

Would an evil player be so blatantly illogical? I can see why you'd say no, but the fact is that I think that at least one of Mammon or Leviathan is FM, and they have both been extremely illogical throughout this entire game.

Any explanations why Mammon and Levi are less likely SK than the rest?

Mainly because I have it in my head that the SK is going to position himself as one of the leaders, but not the top leader. You and Azazel fit the profile. Gaga does less (which is why she's listed after you), and the other two don't fit at all.

And you are ahead of Azazel because the Belial kill makes sense for you.

My theory right now is that you are SK and killed Belial. The FM is Mammon or Leviathan, and they either tried to kill you (would certainly make sense for Mammon) or tried to kill Baphomet and were blocked by a healer or guard. I agree with Azazel that any living healer or guard should reveal to help us out right now, but I also think it's possible that Belial was the healer.

Alternatively, yes Azazel, it's possible we have 2 FM and no SK left. In that case, again, the person who most had a reason to kill Belial was Mephistopheles. Would have to go back and check to see who makes the most sense as his partner, between Lev and Mammon.

This is quite a display isn't it. Asta has avoided putting you in a bad position and gone to great lengths to justify why. Interesting that she felt the need to do this.

That's completely untrue, see below:

Notice that you are in his top tier for FM?

Yup, I'm having a super bad game, I'm an idiot. Remove vote

Looks like you already figured out that you were mixing up names. I get the feeling that you are desperate to make a case against somebody, and keep the heat off of yourself. As Azazel said, it's really interesting how a bunch of sheep are all of a sudden coming out of the pasture to attack me. Have to think that at least one of you is being opportunistic. And no coincidence, I'm talking specifically about the same people who I have listed as my top suspects - Lev, Mammon, and Meph.

3) There are still some explanations why an evil Belphegor could have killed Belial: he probably thinks I'm no major threat to him, or he decided that Belial had a role or was a member of the other evil faction.

If I was evil, why would I not consider you a threat? Prior to the recent flood of posts against me, you were the only one really mentioning me as even a mid-tier suspect. I would have wanted you out of the way.

4) We had only one kill, but still Belphegor insists that the SK is alive. The likeliest scenario - which is also the worst case scenario - is that the SK is dead and we have to deal with 2 FM.

I'm not insisting that the SK is alive. I'm insisting that it's still possible.

You'll notice that even if I believe it's possible the SK is still around, I'm focusing on FM today. Because I know that the FM are the priority for us, since they can kill every night. Hell, I'm the one who has said that a few times.

I just think it's very likely that Mammon or Lev is FM, so really it's a question between the 2 of them today. Would I love to do some partnership analysis beyond that? Yeah, I would. But sadly, I don't have any time. I've got a presentation I need to practice for all day (doing the first public run-through in front of my co-workers later tonight). So I won't be able to dig through the thread to analyze the game at that level. Going to have to stick with the evidence that one of Mammon or Lev is FM (e.g. 1) they had motive to kill Beelzebub, 2) there are reasons to think that none of the other players were partnered with Astar, 3) there is possible distancing between them and Astar).

I also have a question for Belphegor. Did you ever wonder why you're still alive? Could it probably mean that you're posing no threat for the evil players? That you're heading into the wrong direction?

Yep, I've thought about it. Notice that I've spent a lot of time recently talking about why the FM/SK might have killed certain people - how they were probably targeting the players who threatened them most. Obviously, that wasn't me.

And if you'll notice, that has impacted my suspect list today. It's the entire reason why Meph has risen to the top of my SK suspect list.

And I don't like Belfegor's attempt to force us to look for SK, even if he admits we should lynch a FM today. I also have a feeling that he tried to hide Mammon by naming five tier-1 suspects.

Ridiculous.

1) You're claiming that it's a waste of time to even consider the possibility of the SK being alive? I have clearly stated that I want to lynch FM, and that I would vote for Lev or Mammon today. I was even the first one to actually break it down and explain why that is the right course of action. All I have added to that is that I refuse to rule out the possibility that the SK is still alive as well. If you are disagreeing with me, then you must be claiming that we should completely ignore the SK for now, which goes way too far.

2) You say I'm hiding Mammon....yet I said I want to lynch him or Leviathan. Yeah, that makes sense.

3) You say I'm hiding Mammon....yet I was the one who said that he is suspicious for hunting SK (to the exclusion of FM) yesterday. While everyone else was dying to lynch Berith, I was one of the few considering the Mammon alternative.

4) Your sudden attack on me, after I list you as my top SK suspect, and after Lev and Mammon make a few negative comments about me, looks very opportunistic and defensive. Makes me feel even worse about you.

Whom I'd target if I was evil Belphegor? Can't be sure, but probably not Azazel. I can't imagine evil Belph killing Azazel because of being afraid of his slight suspicions.

If I wasn't going to be concerned about Azazel, then who was I going to be concerned about? Just think about this for a second.

1) If there is a living SK, he cannot afford to kill the last FM yet. He wants the FM around for 2 reasons - to help him kill innocents at night, and to be the focus for the lynch during the day. So the SK could absolutely not kill Lev or Mammon.

2) If I was the SK, that would leave me with Baphomet, Meph, Belial, Gaga, and Azazel as my options. Of those 5, only Azazel was any sort of threat to me, prior to today. I would have absolutely tried to kill one of him or Baphomet (if I felt it was necessary to take out the PI, and I didn't trust the FM to do it).

Anyway, I need to get back to work.

[House Wythers]

Well night kill analysis has been done. If we're looking for FM's, and IF Belphy's analysis is right (I haven't looked at it properly beyond a skim read and a glance at the tiers) then Leviathan and Mammon are who we should concentrate on.

Based on today's play, it feels like Levi is getting a lot of love and protection from somewhere:

Why you totally ignored my argument that Levi's vote on Bapho makes innocent?

Current tiers:

1) Mammon;

2) Belphegor;

3) Azazel, Lady Gaga, Leviaphan;

5) Baphomet.

However, with all this evidence for people feeling good about Leviathan, and the D1 lynch derail, it is this comment from Leviathan that is quite worrying:

It's also possible that one faction decided not to kill tonight to cause more confusion.

I find it easier to believe, when taking everything into consideration, that there is a partner behind the scenes prompting Leviathan to attack these two to give the illusion of distancing.

You know what I mean?

Angel X: Hey Levi, those two look like they're protecting you, so you should attack them to look like you're distancing so when you go down, they'll go down with you.

Or something like that.

Basically - I don't trust Leviathan for attacking Belph AND Mephi who both trust him and are basically the only players who have acted like they trust him - in terms of derailment and Mephisto's comments today. Plus Meph and Belph are better SK candidates than FM. SK could always have used threat of a healer to be more aggressive in this game than CB would determine.

:unsure:

Leviathan

I'll pop back again in about 4 hours, but I won't be deeply involved again for about 6.

[House Wythers]

I quoted the wrong Leviathan quote there. Not sure how that happened? Please print, cut and paste below comment into my previous post:

I find it really strange that neither Baphomet or Belfagor was killed last night. Mephisto makes me uncomfortable, he's very one track minded.

I didn't know that it was super unlikely for the FM to pull a stunt like I described. They would have needed to do it then, because afterward it would have been obvious there was no SK and it wouldn't be possible. I thought the benefit may have outweighed the risk and Mephisto doesn't reassure me at all. I know you all think I'm mental but I can't rule it out completely.

Reguarding Mammon he seems pretty resigned to his death, which is now far from assured. I don't know what to make of this but I think maybe an FM would fight a bit harder.

Belphogor and Azalel's analysis of the day one mob if accurate, from my perspective points to Balphagor and the fact that he's alive worries me too.

Atm I prefer Mephisto or Balphogor for lynching.

Kthxbai.

[House Corbray]

I still have stuff to do, but I will try to post some small posts.

First of all, I have made a decision. I'm going to give Belphegor a free pass. If he is evil I think we can forget about winning the game. If he is innocent (or even the SK) we need his help to turn the tide for the innocents. And I need to reduce my suspect pool to make something that can be called an analysis.

Voting pattern update:

It is day 1.

15 players remain: Asmodeus, Astaroth, Azalel, Baphomet, Beelzebub, Belial, Belphegor, Berith, Lady GaGa, Leviathan, Lucifer, Mammon, Mastema, Mephistopheles, Sammael.

8 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

7 votes for Azalel (Belphegor, Berith, Baphomet, Asmodeus, Belial, Leviathan, Sammael)

4 votes for Leviathan (Beelzebub, Azalel, Lucifer, Astaroth)

2 votes for Astaroth (Mastema, Lady GaGa)

1 vote for Beelzebub (Mammon)

1 vote for Lady GaGa (Mephistopheles)

This vote count doesn't help me much. I want to think that at least one baddie did vote for me, which leaves only Belphegor and Leviathan. But then I can't believe that Astartoth would be that paranoid to sacrifice one of her partners - especially if Mastema is the other one.

Ok,let's think through some scenarios:

1) Astaroth and Mastema are partnered

That means that Leviathan is most likely innocent. Like I said, Sacrificing a partner is one thing, sacrificing a partner when the other one is most likely not going to make it to endgame is the other.

No, I think Asta's partner is someone who is strong enough to avoid being lynched for a while.

2) Astartoth and Mastema are not partnered (aka Mastema is the Wannabe)

Here it's more likely that Astartoth tried to cut ties with Leviathan. More likely doesn't mean likely though.

The main problem is that so many players were absent at the end of the day. Astartoth could be partnered with two of Lady GaGa, Mephistopheles and Mammon.

It is day 2.

12 players remain: Asmodeus, Astaroth, Azalel, Baphomet, Beelzebub, Belial, Belphegor, Berith, Lady GaGa, Leviathan, Mammon, Mephistopheles.

7 votes are needed for a conviction or 6 to go to night.

7 votes for Asmodeus (Belphegor, Mephistopheles, Baphomet, Astaroth, Azalel, Beelzebub, Berith)

5 votes for Baphomet (Belial, Lady GaGa, Leviathan, Mammon, Asmodeus)

Again we have two possible scenarios:

1) The FM killed Belial (more likely)

I can see multiple reason to kill a player who wasnÄt on the lynchmob. We don't know if the FM were rolehunting or trying to hit the SK (in that case they should have killed someone who was on the mob though). I have to make to subcategories:

1a) The FM killed Belial and Mastema was part of the FM team

Only one FM left who certainly does not want to waste his kill. He'd probably tried to kill someone who he thought was not the SK. I don't think that Belial fits into that category. That means he must have been some kind of threat to them or they were looking at the voting pattern or it was a frame job.

1 B) The FM killed Belial and Mastema was the SK

In that case I don't understand why they didn't risk to take out Baphomet. We would have fallen from odd to even, so we wouldn#t have gained an extra lynch. So either the FM are paranoid on a more than average level or they're not so clever as we thought. Or they have a mastermind plan that I'm not able to crack.

2. The SK killed Belial

Well, this scenario has been discussed in full length already. However, Belphegor already said that the SK does not want to kill the remaining FM. So why did he kill Belial? Why not Baphomet or Belphegor? Or me*. That's why I think it's more plausible that the FM killed Belial which means in conclusion that there is no SK or a role interfered. I'm favouring the geuard over the healer as it could also belong to the FM faction and because two NK-preventing roles are too much for my taste.

Damn, this post has become longer than I planned. Have to leave you now.

* No, I am not a narciss, but no one really suspected me for a long long time

[House Corbray]

Where the hell is Mammon?

Mammon

come back and give us at least some input. :tantrum:

[Magic Mirror]

This vote count doesn't help me much. I want to think that at least one baddie did vote for me, which leaves only Belphegor and Leviathan. But then I can't believe that Astartoth would be that paranoid to sacrifice one of her partners - especially if Mastema is the other one.

Ok,let's think through some scenarios:

1) Astaroth and Mastema are partnered

That means that Leviathan is most likely innocent. Like I said, Sacrificing a partner is one thing, sacrificing a partner when the other one is most likely not going to make it to endgame is the other.

No, I think Asta's partner is someone who is strong enough to avoid being lynched for a while.

I really don't get this point. I already argued why I thought it was mistaken here:

We'll have to disagree on this one. I think it's reasonable to assume Astartoth thought Leviathan would be lynched. Putting a vote on Azazel or Lady Gaga would have been pretty weird, and would have required some explaining (I don't remember him having expressed suspicion on either of you), which might have been a problem given his time constraints. Putting a vote on one of the no-hopers would have been pretty suspicious too. Basically I don't think he could have done anything much other than vote Leviathan if he didn't want to attract considerable suspicion on himself with little guarantee he could actually save Leviathan.

Also, and assuming Astartoth was partnered with Mastema, the Levi vote happened near the end of night one, when Mastema had been around and hadn't really attracted any votes other than Belial's. Astartoth couldn't really know Mastema was going to be modkilled.

2. The SK killed Belial

Well, this scenario has been discussed in full length already. However, Belphegor already said that the SK does not want to kill the remaining FM. So why did he kill Belial? Why not Baphomet or Belphegor? Or me*. That's why I think it's more plausible that the FM killed Belial which means in conclusion that there is no SK or a role interfered. I'm favouring the geuard over the healer as it could also belong to the FM faction and because two NK-preventing roles are too much for my taste.

I already addressed this, the SK could have thought Belial was not FM and was a less likely heal than me or Belce. From where I'm standing the Belial kill looks like it makes lot of sense for an SK and not that much for a FM. I frankly agree with Belphegor's assessment of what happened during the night here:

My theory right now is that you are SK and killed Belial. The FM is Mammon or Leviathan, and they either tried to kill you (would certainly make sense for Mammon) or tried to kill Baphomet and were blocked by a healer or guard. I agree with Azazel that any living healer or guard should reveal to help us out right now, but I also think it's possible that Belial was the healer.

I'm leaning towards a Leviathan lynch over a Mammon one right now, as Leviathan is the only one who seems to be getting some support (and for reasons I don't entirely agree with). I also think Mammon comes accross as more innocent and the night kills are slightly more convenient for Leviathan than for Mammon.

[House Baratheon]

I generally dislike kill analysis, since it is far to easy for scum to manipulate.

Considering peoples analysis(that it makes me look worse) then why make the kill, since as soon as people look at who he was attacking it casts suspicion on me.

[Magic Mirror]

I generally dislike kill analysis, since it is far to easy for scum to manipulate.

Considering peoples analysis(that it makes me look worse) then why make the kill, since as soon as people look at who he was attacking it casts suspicion on me.

Well you have to analyze something...

Games have been won with the clever use of frame-kills, or playing against the market and killing people who trust you rather than people who suspect you, but it's a rare occurrence. I'd also say if you look at the people who were night-killed there's a pretty distincitve pattern in whom they suspect. We simply can't not take that into consideration, it would be silly.

Other arguments based on anything else are welcome, of course.

[House Velaryon]

Sorry, I am a bit busy.

Mammon, since I think it's a better lynch than Levi and I don't think we can manage anything else (especially after Aza stated his willingness to lose to an evil Belph).

[House Corbray]

Baphomet, do you at least agree that if Mastema was an FM, Astartoth wouldn't have sacrificed Leviathan?

[Magic Mirror]

Baphomet, do you at least agree that if Mastema was an FM, Astartoth wouldn't have sacrificed Leviathan?

No, remember Astartoth voted Leviathan on day one. Mastema was killed on day two. Also, and I'll insist, I think that from where Astartoth was standing there were two options: be on the train or not, lynching someone else was not really an option, specially since Astartoth didn't have the time to start pushing another lynch because he was busy at work. Belphe's push on you and the radical turning of the lynch tides is not really something that could have been predicted.

So, in a CF game, if an FM has to choose between being on his partner's lynch or not being on his partner's lynch, what does he choose?

[House Velaryon]

Ok, I am free now.

I have some desire to answer Belph's last post, but I am not sure it's useful. Evidently, he doesn't want to lynch me today and I don't want to lynch him today, so we can stall our duel until tomorrow. Today, it would be likely a distraction.

Besides, I'd like to see if Belph will join Mammon lynch (which seems more popular) or support an alternative, before solidifying my opinion about him.

[House Baratheon]

Got to run, and still suspect Mephisto most. Hopefully back later.

Vote mephisto

I also don't trust his last post, which seems to be trying too hard to be friendly, to try and avoid a lynch.

And why not answer the post? You basically seem to be trying to stall until later, which I really don't like.

What if you die, and leave it unanswered? That leaves us with less information on what you thought, and knowing the thoughts of someone whose CF we know is helpful. Though you don't seem to consider the possibility that you will die...

[House Corbray]

No, remember Astartoth voted Leviathan on day one. Mastema was killed on day two. Also, and I'll insist, I think that from where Astartoth was standing there were two options: be on the train or not, lynching someone else was not really an option, specially since Astartoth didn't have the time to start pushing another lynch because he was busy at work. Belphe's push on you and the radical turning of the lynch tides is not really something that could have been predicted.

So, in a CF game, if an FM has to choose between being on his partner's lynch or not being on his partner's lynch, what does he choose?

With or without the modkill, Mastema was a likely lynch target. And if he told his partners that he had issues to keep up with the game, even more so.

[House Wythers]

I'll pop back again in about 4 hours, but I won't be deeply involved again for about 6.

Pop.

Back in 2.

[House Velaryon]

What if you die, and leave it unanswered?

If I'll die (which looks highly unlikely at the moment), you will stay with my opinion that Belph is likely guilty. Some additional arguments might be useful with me alive, but not with me dead. Especially regarding those are rather minor arguments.

The fact you vote me and not Levi is a minor argument for your innocence - but very minor, after I critisized you yesterday for voting Berith over me. It's good you can learn, but today's situation is sufficiently different. Yesterday, innocent you had a decent chance to lynch me, if making votes 3-2 instead of 4-1. Could you explain why you've voted Berith instead?

Today, voting me is clearly useless, since everybody is after Levi or you.