AGoT Mafia 71 - Rebellion in Hell

[Lady Gaga]

All right, I think we can exclude the following possible FM pairing:

Azazel/Mephistopheles

Otherwise Leviatha would be lynched already. Leaves us with the following pairings:

1) Lady GaGa/Leviathan

2) Lady GaGa/Mephistopheles

3) Lady GaGa/Azazael

4) Leviathan/Mephistopheles

5) Leviathan/Azazel

Of course in my opinion the pairings 3) and 5) are impossible. 2) is also unlikely, since Mephistopheles just voted Lady GaGa which absolutely nakes no sense.

That leaves 1) and 4). Both include Leviathan. If Lady GaGa was his partner, she probably wants to cut ties. If it's Mephistopheles, he apparently wants to safe her. Both strategies make sense. Lady GaGa can afford to lynch he partner, because she would be able to frame Mephistopheles the next day. Mephistopheles OTOH has an interest to keep Leviathan alive, as he is a prime suspect himself.

Have to think about it a bit more.

If I exclude myself, Lady Gaga is in every partnership. You are right that you and meph can't be a partnership or you would have lynched me when Gaga placed her vote. If there are paired FM she's definitely one of them.

[House Velaryon]

If I exclude myself, Lady Gaga is in every partnership.

And if I exclude myself, either you or Gaga should be a partner.

Since I exclude possibility of SK alive, I have to vote one of you two, no other variant left.

[House Corbray]

And if I exclude myself, either you or Gaga should be a partner.

Since I exclude possibility of SK alive, I have to vote one of you two, no other variant left.

When exactly did you come to the conclusion that the SK is dead?

[House Velaryon]

I am still at the beginning of reread, but I think I already found something important: post #132 by lady Gaga, where she accuses Azazel of role-fishing (because of his post #108), but doesn't vote him. Very probable distancing.

[House Velaryon]

When exactly did you come to the conclusion that the SK is dead?

At the very beginning of the previous day.

Later I've admitted that theoretically he still might be alive, but think that probability of that is almost same as probability of Bapho being evil, so worth dismissing.

If SK is alive, than last FM failed to kill, so I'd expect him to try strongly to lynch his target since he has a good reason to think the target was SK. Do you see signs of that?

[Magic Mirror]

That's true. And Gaga was pretty keen to place her vote. if she's FM then her partner's just waiting for someone else to put a vote on me if she has one.

This is true, and it's one of the reasons why I'd rather wait as much as I can before voting. The fact that I'm willing to wait doesn't mean I'd be willing to vote against my initial suspicions unless cases and evidence are more forthcoming, though.

I am still at the beginning of reread, but I think I already found something important: post #132 by lady Gaga, where she accuses Azazel of role-fishing (because of his post #108), but doesn't vote him. Very probable distancing.

If you remember, Lady Gaga then goes to vote Astortoth because of the role fishing (of which she had accused Azazel...). She later claimed this was a mistake. Both Belial and Baphomet thought this was a point against Lady Gaga being evil, because she wouldn't have made that mistake if Astortoth was her partner. One of the few things that we know for sure in this game is that Astartoth was FM.

At the very beginning of the previous day.

Later I've admitted that theoretically he still might be alive, but think that probability of that is almost same as probability of Bapho being evil, so worth dismissing.

If SK is alive, than last FM failed to kill, so I'd expect him to try strongly to lynch his target since he has a good reason to think the target was SK. Do you see signs of that?

The FM could have failed to kill because of a successful heal (if they had targeted me, for instance). This was Belphegor's theory (that Belial was the healer and that it had healed me on the night it died). They probably wouldn't suspect me of being the SK.

[House Corbray]

At the very beginning of the previous day.

Later I've admitted that theoretically he still might be alive, but think that probability of that is almost same as probability of Bapho being evil, so worth dismissing.

If SK is alive, than last FM failed to kill, so I'd expect him to try strongly to lynch his target since he has a good reason to think the target was SK. Do you see signs of that?

Lady GaGa's early vote on Leviathan mostly.

I cannot imagine that the remaining FM targeted Leviathan at all. Lady GaGa would have been mad to try to kill someone who was that lynchable.

However, you're probably right. We know that Baphomet is not the SK and that Leviathan is also a very unlikely possibility. That leaves Lady GaGa and you as the remaining suspects. If Lady GaGa targeted you she wouldn't tryto lynch Leviathan. So that leaves only you (and me from a neutral PoV) as a possible SK candidate.

[House Velaryon]

Everybody, if I am SK - do you actually think FM would try to nightkill me over a bunch of more trustable and unlynchable players? I don't think it's possible.

So, if I am SK, only explanation of a lack of second death is that Belial was healer or guard. Considering me SK requires a definite person to have a definite role. But Bapho also might be guilty if a definite person had a definite role. It's exactly same.

[House Corbray]

The FM could have failed to kill because of a successful heal (if they had targeted me, for instance). This was Belphegor's theory (that Belial was the healer and that it had healed me on the night it died). They probably wouldn't suspect me of being the SK.

Yep, it could be that or there is indeed no SK or.....

I really wished we would know for sure if Mastema was the SK. Would make things much easier.

[House Corbray]

Have to leave you for a while.

Mephisto, could you do me a favour and quote your case against Lady GaGa from day 1 (or 2?)? I don't have the time right now, since I'm already late.

[House Velaryon]

If you remember, Lady Gaga then goes to vote Astortoth because of the role fishing (of which she had accused Azazel...).

After being strongly critisized for not voting.

She later claimed this was a mistake. Both Belial and Baphomet thought this was a point against Lady Gaga being evil, because she wouldn't have made that mistake if Astortoth was her partner.

But they completely missed to consider possibility that both Azazel and Astaroth were her partners.

Perhaps she sincerely mistook one of her partners for another. Or perhaps she misvoted deliberately.

[Lady Gaga]

This is true, and it's one of the reasons why I'd rather wait as much as I can before voting. The fact that I'm willing to wait doesn't mean I'd be willing to vote against my initial suspicions unless cases and evidence are more forthcoming, though.

I'm off for about two hours. I may not have anything up within your deadline although I'll try. I've been through the first half of the thread collecting conversations which I'll look at when I return. I hope you'll wait a bit longer if necessary, there's still a fair bit time till the real deadline.

[House Velaryon]

Mephisto, could you do me a favour and quote your case against Lady GaGa from day 1 (or 2?)? I don't have the time right now, since I'm already late.

Day 1, post #138.

In fact, after I've remembered we are in three-sided, my suspicions on Bath's and Levi's votes significantly lowered. Both these votes don't fit Cerwyn Bible profile.

For now, I vote Lady Gaga, for unexplained talk about her posting level and for failing to vote her suspect.

By the way, now I see I had miisunderstood her talk about posting level, so first point wasn't viable. Second was, as Belial agreed in #139.

[Magic Mirror]

But they completely missed to consider possibility that both Azazel and Astaroth were her partners.

Perhaps she sincerely mistook one of her partners for another. Or perhaps she misvoted deliberately.

Well, I guess this is a possibility I'm willing to consider, but again, you need a case.

If you're arguing that Mastema was the SK and Gaga, Azazel and Astartoth are the FM you need a case focusing on:

a) The night-kills. Why did they choose them?

B) How these players relate and interact with each other.

I've had a look at it myself and it doesn't really seem to hold. Lucifer, the day one NK, thought Lady Gaga looked like a carefree innocent while being very suspicious of Leviathan, for example. Beelzebub had Leviathan, Berith, Asmodeus and Mammon on his tier 1. If all 4 of them were innocent, why kill him? Belphegor would have probably wanted to lynch one of Leviathan or yourself today, while Azazel seemed convinced that Leviathan is innocent, yet Belphegor dies and Azazel lives.

Anyway, have your go at making your case.

[House Velaryon]

yet Belphegor dies and Azazel lives.

But of course Azazel lives if he is FM? :)

Anyway, have your go at making your case.

It's already evident I won't make in time. And, besides, I am less convinced now myself. Gaga's reaction to Azazel is suspicious indeed, but Azazel's reaction to Gaga looks quite sincere and natural.

Perhaps, Levi is guilty after all. Perhaps, joining his mob is more useful for innocent case than trying to convince you all to vote Gaga (since I know lynching me is absolutely suicidal).

Speaking honestly, I don't trust in my ability to catch guilties in this game anymore.

[Mentat]

Nothing to see here...

[Magic Mirror]

But of course Azazel lives if he is FM? :)

Yeah, but that doesn't really help the 5 of us who live today. Plus, if Azazel is FM chances are he's partnered with Leviathan rather than with Lady Gaga (at least that's what I think).

It's already evident I won't make in time. And, besides, I am less convinced now myself. Gaga's reaction to Azazel is suspicious indeed, but Azazel's reaction to Gaga looks quite sincere and natural.

Perhaps, Levi is guilty after all. Perhaps, joining his mob is more useful for innocent case than trying to convince you all to vote Gaga (since I know lynching me is absolutely suicidal).

Speaking honestly, I don't trust in my ability to catch guilties in this game anymore.

Whichever way you look at it, innocents have played awfully this game. Belphegor, who was our strongest player, consistently went after the wrong people (with the possible exception of day 1, if Azazel is evil, which is a theory he abandoned long ago).

If this is any consolation to you, if Leviathan is guilty I'd now feel more inclined to look at Azazel rather than just lynch you... but Azazel + Lady Gaga? Sorry, I'm just not buying that right now.

[House Velaryon]

Ok, now I agree that Lucifer's kill doesn't make sense for Azazel, but Sammael's does. In #246, Sammael supports idea that Azazel could do role-fishing. Meanwhile, in #256 he says he suspect Asmodeus more than Leviathan.

[Magic Mirror]

Ok, now I agree that Lucifer's kill doesn't make sense for Azazel, but Sammael's does. In #246, Sammael supports idea that Azazel could do role-fishing. Meanwhile, in #256 he says he suspect Asmodeus more than Leviathan.

Who killed Lucifer then? Mastema the SK? I guess it's possible, but Lucifer said he wasn't buying the Mastema case, so it doesn't look like a specially good choice either.

[House Velaryon]

Ok, I give up.

Leviathan.