How big a conspiracist are you? A poll

[K26dp]

01. Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark (R+L=J) 95%

02. Jon Snow is the son of Ned Stark and Ashara Dayne (N+A=J) -- 0%

03. Jon is the son of Ned Stark and Wylla -- 0%.

04. Tyrion is a Targaryen (TiaT) -- 5%

05. Varys set up Tywin murder -- 15%

06. Dragonstone and/or Loras aren't as reported -- 85%

07. Syrio Forel is alive -- 50%

08. Syrio Forel = Jaqen H'ghar (S=JH) -- 0%

09. Tysha = Sailor's Wife -- 50%

10. Jeyne Westerling isn't Jeyne Westerling -- 0%

11. Sandor is the gravedigger -- 100%

12. The dragons are Lightbringer -- 45%

13. Dawn is Lightbringer -- 5%

14. Ashara is Quaithe -- 20%

15. Lyanna is the KotLT -- 85%

16. Dany is the young and beautiful queen who is foretold to dismiss Cersei -- 90%

17. Ben Stark is Coldhands -- 50%

18. Bloodraven is Coldhands -- 10%

19. Aegon is alive -- 5%

20. Jon is legitimized by Robb -- 85%

21. Robb gives Jon at least contingent control over Winterfell -- 85%

22. Marillion is still alive -- 0%

23. Arya didn't kill Dareon -- 0%

24. Ser Gerold Dayne is the great grandson of Aerion Targaryen - No opinion

25. Grey Sheep have conspired to kill the dragons and continue to scheme against the Targaryens and any magic. - 60%

26. Pycelle the Saboteur of Summerhall. -- 10%

27. Littlefinger spread Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna lie -- 0%

28. Davos is alive -- 95%

29. Red Wedding plot precedes Robb attack on Crag -- 85%

30. Red Wedding wasn't Tywin's idea -- 70%

31. Joffrey was manipulated to do 2 of 3 of behead Ned, send assassin to Bran and airmail Antler Men -- 95%, but I think the Antler Men catapulting was all Joffrey.

[AvengingAryaFan]

...And I also like my personal theory that the Children of the Forest are frozen into the Wall. That way it makes sense to shatter the wall.Also that the COF are the old and strong magics that protect the Wall.

Could you provide a little support for that? Being as it's not a theory I've heard before, and is interesting.

[AvengingAryaFan]

02. Jon Snow is the son of Ned Stark and Ashara Dayne (N+A=J) -- 0%

03. Jon is the son of Ned Stark and Wylla -- 0%.

08. Syrio Forel = Jaqen H'ghar (S=JH) -- 0%

10. Jeyne Westerling isn't Jeyne Westerling -- 0%

11. Sandor is the gravedigger -- 100%

22. Marillion is still alive -- 0%

23. Arya didn't kill Dareon -- 0%

27. Littlefinger spread Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna lie -- 0%

While I tend to agree with many of your expectations, I'm surprised when anyone is absolutely sure about the truth or falseness of theories. I mean, these are "theories" precisely because the book does not state the outcome unequivocally, and Martin seems to have a penchant for surprising twists.

[Stalker]

While I tend to agree with many of your expectations, I'm surprised when anyone is absolutely sure about the truth or falseness of theories. I mean, these are "theories" precisely because the book does not state the outcome unequivocally, and Martin seems to have a penchant for surprising twists.

While you are correct that it is impossible to be absolutely sure of anything, the entire idea of using percentages is hyperbole in itself. No one will sit around and calculate exact values. At least I hope so.

[AvengingAryaFan]

While you are correct that it is impossible to be absolutely sure of anything, the entire idea of using percentages is hyperbole in itself. No one will sit around and calculate exact values. At least I hope so.

no, exact values aren't practical either; but I'd think that 1% would be HIGHLY unlikely, while 99% would be almost certain, but with a tiny reserve for modesty and a nod to the god GRRM of this universe. But who needs modesty?

[King Bronn l]

Could you provide a little support for that? Being as it's not a theory I've heard before, and is interesting.

Here you go

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/41225-so-you-want-to-find-the-children-of-the-forest/page__p__2025473__fromsearch__1&#entry2025473

[AvengingAryaFan]

Here you go

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/41225-so-you-want-to-find-the-children-of-the-forest/page__p__2025473__fromsearch__1&#entry2025473

Wow - "Awaken the sleepers", indeed!

But now I'll go review your cite.

ETA: I like it! CotF in the Wall! Blow it down and release them to fight the Others!

[StoneColdJaneAusten]

Has no one subscribed to my favorite looney theory, Ned is Alive. The person beheaded was a stand-in, arranged when he refused to make the statement they wanted. He is in one of these dark, dark dungeons in the bowels of the palace.

[King Bronn l]

Has no one subscribed to my favorite looney theory, Ned is Alive. The person beheaded was a stand-in, arranged when he refused to make the statement they wanted. He is in one of these dark, dark dungeons in the bowels of the palace.

I actually like that theory. It's extremely unlikely IMO, but it would be awesome. Maybe thats why the Direwolves freaked out in the crypt?

[Namorath]

im a believer in the theory that the others are aliens from outerspace bent on sleeping with hot human women

:ack:

[DizoakiusMaximus]

im a believer in the theory that the others are aliens from outerspace bent on sleeping with hot human women

:ack:

That's the plot to "earth girls are easy"....

Also add: "Rhaegar is Dany's father" to the list of crackpot theories.

[A wilding]

aliens from outerspace bent on sleeping with hot human women

I am with the Red Viper on this one: Who can blame them?

[I love Cersei]

R+L=J --- I strongly guess so

A+L=J --- possible

N+A=J --- unlikely

Tyrion is a Targ/isn't Tywin's --- no way, he's a chip off the old block

Varys drugged Shae --- certainly not

Grand Tyrell Conspiracy --- nope

Loras is injured, but he will live --- yes, he has sth yet to do

Benjen = Coldhands --- nope

Bloodraven = Coldhands --- could be, but we'll never know. I give it a 5%

Syrio = Jaqen --- nope. A lot of wishful thinking out there. I'm sure Syrio lives, though

The sailor's wife is Tysha --- unlikely, and: we'll never know

Lyanna is the KotLF --- sure

Sandor is the gravedigger --- definitely

Jeyne Westerling switch theory --- highly doubtful, but... hips don't lie - it is known

Dany is the younger, more beautiful queen --- she's my best guess

Dany is the PtwP --- yes; 95% (provided that Rhaegar is dead). And Jon isn't - I suppose

Dany's dragons are Lightbringer --- no. But I know what/who it is...

Brienne survives the hanging --- I do hope so very much; 75%

Davos's execution is a lie --- hope it's not. Not sure though; 49%

Arya's blindness is temporary --- almost certain of it

Marillion is still alive --- i don't buy it

Arya didn't really kill Dareon --- get off it

What about Theon? And: Is Lady still alive?

[Silverin]

Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna 89%

Jon snow is the son of Lyanna and someone else 1%

Jon Snow is Ned's son 9,9999999%

Jon Snow is Brandon's son 0,0000001%

Tyron is a Targaryen 5%

Varys drugged Shae 1%

Dragonstone didnt fall, Loras didnt get injured 5%

The Tyrells are up to something 55%

Benjen=Coldhands 15%

Syrio=Jaqen 15%

Syrio is alive 50%

Lyanna is the KotLF : 85%

Sandor is the gravedigger 70%

Jeyne was switched 85%

Dany is the younger more beautiful queen 30% (I think Margarey is)

Dany is PtwP : 65%

Dany's dragons are Lightbringer: 1%

Brienne survives hanging: 95%

Davo's execution is a lie: 75%

Aeya's blindness temporary: 60%

Dareon is alive: 65%

Robb legitimized Jon as Jon Stark making him temporarly (until it is discovered that Bran and Rickon is alive or crackpot theory he has a son from Jeyne (5%)) his heir 98%

Tyrek Lannister is alive 50%

The weirwoods are just plain trees, they have no special power, the old gods dont exists 5% (Though looking at what is happening to the ones actually praying to them I start to doubt)

And at last:

HODOR 409,2816753%

[Horza]

Deserves a post-ADWD bump, no?

New added crackpottery:

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne

Theon is the Hooded Man

The Green Grace is the Harpy

Aegon is Fake

Bran ate Jojen

Mirri Maz Duur's prophecy is fulfilled

(again, feel free to add)

My revised answers:

01. Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark (R+L=J) 92%

02. Jon Snow is the son of Ned Stark and Ashara Dayne (N+A=J) -- 0%

03. Jon is the son of Ned Stark and Wylla -- 0%.

04. Tyrion is a Targaryen (TiaT) -- 0%

05. Varys set up Tywin murder -- 80%

06. Dragonstone and/or Loras aren't as reported (GTCT) -- 5%

07. Syrio Forel is alive -- 0%

08. Syrio Forel = Jaqen H'ghar (S=JH) -- 0%

09. Tysha = Sailor's Wife -- 50%

10. Jeyne Westerling isn't Jeyne Westerling (mysterious shrinking hips) -- 33%

11. Sandor is the gravedigger -- 100%

12. The dragons are Lightbringer -- 75%

13. Dawn is Lightbringer -- 0%

14. Ashara is Quaithe -- 0%

15. Lyanna is the Knight of the Laughing Tree -- 85%

16. Aegon is real-- 20%

17. Jon is legitimized by Robb -- 85%

18. Marillion is still alive -- 20%

19. Arya didn't kill Dareon -- 0%

20. Marwyn is right about the Maesters (Grey Sheep) -- 67%

21. Tywin arranged Jeyne for Robb (Tywin planned the Red Wedding) -- 55%

22. Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne -- 15%

23. Theon is the Hooded Man -- 20%

23a. Theon killed Little Walder -- 5%

24. The Green Grace is the Harpy -- 80%

25. Aegon is Fake -- 80%

25a. Aegon is a Blackfyre -- 55%

26. Varys is a Blackfyre --50%

27. Bran ate Jojen -- 0%

28. Mirri Maz Duur's prophecy is fulfilled -- 95%

[Arkash]

Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark 90%

Tyrion is a Targaryen 0%

Varys drugged Shae (VDS, Tywin constipation optional) 0%

Dragonstone hasn't really fallen and Loras is OK because the Tyrells are up to something... 70%

Syrio Forel is Jaqen H'gar (S=JH) 0%

Jon Snow is the son of Eddard Stark and Ashara Dayne (N+A=J) 30%

The sailor's wife is Tysha 0%

Jeyne Westerling isn't Jeyne Westerling (switcheroo ahoy) 0%

Sandor is the gravedigger 98%

The dragons are Lightbringer 50%

Dawn is Lightbringer 5%

Merlings are behind everything Dude ?

Undead-ness is caused by a virus 0%

Ashara is Quaithe 0%

Lyanna is KotLF ?

Aegon is alive 80%

Benjen is Coldhands 50%

Jon is Robb's heir 20%

Marillion is still alive 0%

Arya didn't really kill Dareon 0%

Erryk or Arryk killed Joffrey 30%

[Arkash]

Adding: Mirri Maz Duur prophecy is fulfilled: 95%.

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 50%

Theon is the Hooded Man 0%

The Green Grace is the Harpy 60%

Aegon is Fake 10%

Bran ate Jojen 5%

Maegi's Prophecy is Fulfilled 5%

[Horza]

Adding: Mirri Maz Duur prophecy is fulfilled: 95%.

Maegi's Prophecy is Fulfilled 5%

Doh, I meant Mirri Maz Duur there.

[Winter's Lady]

Thank you for bumping this, this is like an encyclopedia of crackpots! I love it.

New added crackpottery:

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 5%

Theon is the Hooded Man - 5%

The Green Grace is the Harpy - srsly? no idea

Aegon is Fake - 95%

Bran ate Jojen - 75%

Maegi's Prophecy is Fulfilled - 20%

Allow me to add Apple Martini's fantstic theory:

Lightbringer is the Nights Watch - 95%

01. Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Lyanna Stark (R+L=J) 99%

02. Jon Snow is the son of Ned Stark and Ashara Dayne (N+A=J) -- 0%

03. Jon is the son of Ned Stark and Wylla -- 1%.

04. Tyrion is a Targaryen (TiaT) -- 0%

05. Varys set up Tywin murder -- 80%

06. Dragonstone and/or Loras aren't as reported (GTCT) -- 15%

07. Syrio Forel is alive -- 0%

08. Syrio Forel = Jaqen H'ghar (S=JH) -- 0%

09. Tysha = Sailor's Wife -- 5%

10. Jeyne Westerling isn't Jeyne Westerling (mysterious shrinking hips) -50%

11. Sandor is the gravedigger -- 100%

12. The dragons are Lightbringer -- 5%

13. Dawn is Lightbringer -- 25%

14. Ashara is Quaithe -- 0%

15. Lyanna is the Knight of the Laughing Tree -- 99%

16. Aegon is real-- 5%

17. Jon is legitimized by Robb -- 85%

18. Marillion is still alive -- 20%

19. Arya didn't kill Dareon -- 0%

20. Marwyn is right about the Maesters (Grey Sheep) -- 50%

21. Tywin arranged Jeyne for Robb (Tywin planned the Red Wedding) -- 80%

22. Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne -- 15%

23a. Theon killed Little Walder -- 5%

25a. Aegon is a Blackfyre -- 55%

26. Varys is a Blackfyre --50%

I also highly support the idea that Sandor Clegane and Gregor Clegane are brothers. :bowdown:

[Fearsome Fred]

The following crackpot theories (of which I am, as far as I know, the proud originator) have yet to be mentioned:

a ) Quentyn is alive.

b ) Myrcella is dead (since aFfC).

c ) Brienne is Undead (since aFfC)

d ) Jaime is Undead (since aDwD).

e ) Brienne is the new “Hound” (since aDwD).

f ) Shae was Tyrion & Tysha’s daughter (and was only ~12 when they met).

g ) “Tysha” was actually Rhaenys.

I also subscribe to the following on your 29-item list:

1, 7, 8, 10, 11, 22, 27.

I’m not giving percentages. That’s a total cheat. No way to be proven wrong.

Some of the items need to be clarified or reworded. For instance, which Maegi? Aegon is “real” (or “fake”) needs to be reworded as “Young Griff is (or is not) Baby Aegon”, if that is what is meant.