AGOT Mafia Game 72 - Adventures Beyond The Wall

[House Targaryen]

*appears out of thin air*

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHH.............

Lord Commander Jon Snow has been possessed by the vengeful ghost of Grandison. I'm calling to you from beyond the grave with an urgent message. The killers are...

Astartoth, Azazel, and Lady GaGa

I'll be around for the next hour or so, but soon I have to leave for a holiday dinner. Unfortunately, I can't give the CF until about 11-12 PM EST if there's no decision before then.

[House Dondarrion]

For Reyne's (and everyone else's) benefit, I'm not going to claim anything but RI, so don't worry if you only make your decision once I'm gone.

[House Mooton]

I found your post on Harclay convincing. Too many inconsistencies in his post and coupled with my general dislike of Reyne I don't like it.

Struggling a little to find Tarbeck's main points at the mo.

This is the quote I used to disqualify a Vyrwel > Harclay pairing. I know it's weak, but the reasoning I used it is that Vyrwel, as a quiet player, would be careful not to make any comments that reflect poorly on their master since they wouldn't be around to change their mind if needed.

[House Mooton]

Execute: Lady GaGa

[House Stokeworth]

Okay, looking over Swann.

Day 1

I’m going to start by pointing you to my day 1 case against him. He was the one player who was most conscious of his number of posts with regard to Grandison’s Rule 2. And he made the most effort to get above the 7 post threshold. And he cast a bandwagon vote on Cerwyn without much thought or effort. The case is in post 208.

Day 2

After that, he disappears until day 2. He starts off with a reasonable course of attack – he goes after Bracken for his list of 4 options at the end of day 1 (which included Swann but failed to include Qorgyle). After a few posts back and forth, Bracken offers up a weak defense that should have been easily dismissed (claiming that it would be too blatant for a symp to leave his master off of a suspect list when the master was suspected)….but Swann backs off.

Sigh. This admittedly gives me pause. The advantage of being the one to suggest a final four is that you get to frame the final debate the way you want it. If you choose a reasonable final four there's a good chance no one will think twice about it. Reyne, at least, seemed to accept that Qorgyle was off the table without questioning it. I'm not sure if it's too blatant as a symp move.

And instead, Swann shifts his attention to Reyne (who failed to object to Bracken posting a list of 4 lynch options that didn’t include Reyne’s top suspect). It’s a reasonable line of inquiry. But the interesting thing is how Swann has eased up on Bracken and found another outlet for his suspicion.

This isn't doing it for me, Reyne. . . . If someone proposes to limit the field to four people, the first thing I expect anyone to do is question the choice. If your top suspect is cut out of the running I expect you to seriously consider if it was reasonable (not if the proposed list was reasonable, but if there isn't a more reasonable list that includes your candidate). You (and Harclay) were the people best positioned to question Bracken's final four. You not only didn't dispute it, but really the only one to engage with it (aside from Grandison).

At the end of his post, he accuses Reyne of faking his suspicion of Qorg -

You weren't practicing some aggressive distancing from Qorgyle and found a very convenient reason not to vote him at the end of the day, were you? Because, despite your loudly stated belief in the power of votes you never voted Qorgyle, your top suspect, until Grandison put you in a position where you couldn't do anything else.

He says that Reyne never voted for Qorg prior to Grandison forcing him into it. But that was incorrect (which I later pointed out to him). It's suspicious that he'd make a mistake like that - FM are often lazy and don't always check all of their facts before posting.

He follows up with a big case connecting Reyne to Qorgyle. Wasn’t a bad case, but again it keeps the focus on Reyne rather than his original target (Bracken). He later votes for Reyne.

He hammers away at the same point for a while. After a bit, Vyrwel calls him defensive over being placed in Bracken’s top 4 lynch options. He objects to that, but makes sure to not start up a new disagreement –

A top four was Bracken's number, and I agree that I could reasonably be included in a top six (I said so myself in the post you quoted). If I'm coming across as defensive then I'm not making my point well. This was never about me. Initially it was about Bracken's failure to include Qorgyle and then it was about Reyne's failure to go in to bat for his suspect. So, to that extent I agree with you.

So long as you accept that I was no one's top pick then we don't disagree. I've certainly acknowledged that there was a case made against me, but even Yarwyck didn't pick me over the other options. Again, my point isn't really to defend myself. I expect people's opinions of me to be very different today anyway (better or worse) so I don't really see how pushing the view that I wasn't broadly suspected yesterday would help me.

In reading that, I see a player who is worried about being seen is defensive, and who doesn’t want to make too many enemies (by provoking Vyrwel).

After Reyne asks people to categorize the other players as ‘like’ or ‘dislike’, he posts this –

Well, Qorgyle is my favourite for your partner, so I'm not sure that "like" is quite right. He hasn't done anything actively suspicious, but he hasn't done anything that makes me think he's innocent either. I agree with those who said that Mina's death doesn't clear him in any way. I wouldn't be in favour of lynching him before you, so perhaps you could say I don't want to lynch him today.

If the question mark next to Bracken represents my uncertainty over whether his move is too blatant for a symp then it describes my feelings pretty accurately. As mentioned, Plumm is in the dislike column, and I'm going to have to give Cerwyn a good read through to work out where I stand on him. Suffice to say I'm not comfortable with the way discussion of him has dropped off. Put him as a provisional dislike as well.

I have a good gut feeling about Tarbeck, but I have to pinpoint where that's coming from as well.

ETA: Maybe I should put all that into a table of some sort.

Like: Tarbeck, Yarwyck,

Mid: Qorgyle*, Harclay, Vyrwel

Dislike: Bracken(?), Cerwyn, Reyne (vote), Plumm

Since I'm doing it I might as well put everyone else in. My feelings are not so strong for the people I didn't mention above.

I've just realised that I have next to no read on Harclay.

Wishy washy on Qorgyle and Bracken. Feels bad about Cerwyn and good about Tarbeck, but not sure why on either one and needs to re-read them. Has no read on Harclay. Doesn’t have strong feelings on people not mentioned at the top part of the post (including me and Vyrwel). He’s posting quasi-tiers, but is barely taking a definitive stand on anybody.

Up until this point, he has never attacked anybody other than 1) a bandwagon vote on Cerwyn on day 1, 2) a weak attack on Bracken that he quickly abandoned for a bad reason, and 3) Reyne. And then Reyne reveals as the Vig.

Swann is forced to go back to the drawing board to look for suspects. Rather than find somebody new, he defaults to his day 1 suspicion of Cerwyn. And when King Plumm posts that he dislikes Cerwyn and Tarbeck, he votes for Cerwyn.

Then Plumm reveals that he’s a Healer. He posts his plan to heal Reyne at night, so that Reyne can delay his Vig kill. Swann immediately objects, and in the process reveals that he is resistant to labeling either Reyne or Plumm as VPI (in spite of the fact that neither claim made any sense for an evil player).

I don't like this at all, Plumm. I admit that the logic of it is reasonable but it only works so long as we trust Reyne and you, and I don't really trust either of you.

Let me think this through.

*If Reyne's an innocent vig and you're an FM you get a chance at killing the vig tonight. Doesn't make a lot of sense since you'd probably be killed tomorrow, and it would be a stupid risk to take just to kill the vig.

*If you're an innocent healer and Reyne's an FM, you're just letting him go an extra day without having to prove his claim. Would Reyne have claimed vig when he did if knew he couldn't prove it... probably not. Hmm.

*If you're both FM this is a pretty clever plan since it could potentially get you both into the final 6. If you also managed to bring a symp with you then you would have won the game.

Pff. I really prefer that Reyne prove his role rather playing it out for the extra payoff. Obviously I can't make Reyne use his kill tonight, but if I end up king tomorrow and everything doesn't seem 100% on the up and up, it's you guys I'm going to be concentrating on.

Well, you can't say we haven't had examples of FM being needlessly... creative before. It just sets my teeth on edge when someone claims an easily provable role to clear themselves, and then someone else (assuming the first person is now cleared) tells them not to bother about proving their role for another day.

There’s really no reason to suspect Reyne or Plumm at this point, but Swann was one of the few people who was trying to undermine any trust going their way.

Then Reyne reveals as Ninja instead of Vig, and again Swann jumps on him –

Wait.

A. Why did you lie in the first place? I'm not sure I see the reason to. And if you're worried about Plumm as king why not take the extra day you've been given, reveal as ninja tomorrow and prove your innocence then under the new king?

Following the Ninja reveal, Swann initially encourages Reyne to use the Ninja power. Which would have obviously caused Reyne’s death and was only necessary if you didn’t trust Reyne based on the reveal. So he’s pushing for a scenario that would have led to an extra innocent death.

I want to go on the record now as saying that if Plumm agrees to withhold his kill I'm completely in favour of Reyne ninjaing the most suspicious person in the group. As far as I'm concerned, if Reyne really can ninja then Plumm is almost certainly innocent.

But a bunch of other people argue against use of the Ninja power -

That's awful.

Evidently, ninjaing Cewryn and Plumm withholding is worse for us than ninja withholding and Plumm killing Cerwyn. Only merit of the former is that we will be sure of dead Reyne's innocence, which is same as CF result.

I suggest to proceed as usual, with hope that Reyne will be eventually nightkilled.

Reyne, I've decided that using your power is stupid. It's meant to be an innocent last card in the case of an evil king, but barring an evil king it's just stupid because it loses us an extra player. So don't use it at all unless you think the king is evil. If you want someone dead that bad, then make your case an urge Plumm to do the deed. I don't care if Cerwyn agrees or not.

Initially I was not sure that I trusted Reyne, initial reveal felt pretty haphazard, and I suppose it was. In light of the more recent reveal, I think that we should let Reyne slide for now and I would advise against using the ninja today (or, more likely, at all), the risk of losing 3 innocents in one day (having already had a innocent lynched, NKed, and modkilled).

And guess what? Now all of a sudden, Swann doesn’t want Reyne to use the Ninja power either -

I'm going to have a look at what happens if the symp is dead. But from this I really think Reyne shouldn't ninja anyone. Does anyone see anything I've missed here?

His change of heart doesn’t come until after he realizes he is going against popular opinion. He then spends the next big group posts basically reiterating this point. Up until the point when Plumm shows up and says the day needs to end soon. Swann posts –

Oh crap. My entire suspect list has just been decimated and all I'm left with is vague suspicions. Qorgyle or Vyrwel would probably be my favourites just now, but I don't have strong reasons to support that.

So he puts forth a few new suspects. First, why did Cerwyn drop off of his suspect list? And how about Bracken? Second, he suggests Qorg and Vyrwel, but it’s extremely weak. Once again offering a soft opinion that isn’t going to provoke anybody.

When Plumm suggests that he’s looking at Bracken and Tarbeck, Swann jumps in to say he prefers Bracken. But he doesn’t vote.

I'd prefer Bracken to Tarbeck, and if you're looking for a pure informational lynch I'm really not sure if Qorgyle or Vyrwel (my earlier choices) help.

Then Plumm focuses on Bracken and Qorgyle. Again, Swann says Bracken.

If that's your final two then I can't help but agree (on the head/gut thing). My call is... Bracken, though you won't believe how I dithered over that.

This, definitely this. I'd quite like to reread the entire game now.

But he doesn’t vote, and he says he’s uncertain about it. He’s not pushing Bracken at all, and I could easily see this as distancing. He’s making it known that he supposedly favors a Bracken lynch, but isn’t pushing it hard. In fact, he’s doing the opposite, suggesting that the other option isn’t a bad choice either. And he adds to the idea that he could go either way by posting this to Bracken –

The choice between you and Qorgyle hurts my head.

Qorgyle is executed, and revealed innocent. Here’s Swann’s reaction –

Of course he was. Bastard doesn't even have the decency to be guilty. Hmph!

It looks extremely fake. Especially the “Hmph!” part.

The board won't let me put it all in one post. Next post will start with day 3.

[House Stokeworth]

Continuing the case against Swann.

Day 3

He doesn’t show up on day 3 until after I have started my analysis. Here’s his first reaction.

Alright, but if we're going to do look at it that, let's do it properly. I don't really trust you enough to have your name removed from proceedings. It not only clears you unreasonably, but it creates a false impression of just how many combinations are left. If we put you in we have to add 27 new combinations (unless I missed some cuts I should have made):

While I don’t blame him for wanting to at least take a look at the options that include me, I find it interesting how he doesn’t even mention the fact that starting the analysis (at a time when we were pretty aimless) is, in and of itself, something you’d expect from an innocent player. What motivation would an FM have for engaging in this type of logical approach? Especially a player who was already trusted, wasn’t on the block, and didn’t really need to earn any goodwill from the group.

I think the underlined sentences might reveal his true motive here. He doesn’t like that I’ve cut it down to a small number of possibilities, and he probably doesn’t like that his name appears in a lot of those scenarios. He wants to broaden the scope of the analysis to create a bigger cushion around himself.

I'm slightly skeptical that a symp would never vote their master, though I think it's less likely in a KM games, so maybe it is a reasonable assumption here.

Perhaps the most interesting thing here is that he doesn’t even really believe in the analysis. He basically spends the rest of the day focusing on it, because he knows that it’s inescapable at this point. But he also takes a shot at undermining the entire thing from the very start, using very weak reasoning.

This might seem self-serving, but I would like to propose that partners wouldn't vote for one another during a final two unless it would be suspicious to do otherwise. I therefore suggest that a Swann/Bracken pairing is unlikely. It probably also means that a Harclay/Bracken pairing is unlikely, though I have to double check the circumstances surrounding Harclay's vote.

And, huge surprise, he’s eager to point out that a Swann/Bracken pairing is unlikely.

First off, I’ve thought about it, and I disagree with the suggestion that a FM would not vote for his partner if given the choice between 2 players. That’s distancing. If you’ve expressed suspicion of your partner, then you are often backed into a corner where you have to vote for him when you are put on the spot.

The funny thing is, Swann knows that. He used it as a point against Reyne/Qorgyle earlier in the game. Remember on day 2, when he accused Reyne of faking of his suspicion of Qorgyle? He said that Reyne never voted for Qorg until Grandison put Qorg (and Dayne) in his final 2.

despite your loudly stated belief in the power of votes you never voted Qorgyle, your top suspect, until Grandison put you in a position where you couldn't do anything else.

So he’s saying that Grandison put Reyne in a position where he had to vote Qorg, because Qorg/Dayne was his only option and Reyne had already expressed suspicion of Qorg. Seems pretty clear – he thinks a FM would vote for his partner when the partner is in a final 2 situation.

Yet now he is arguing the exact opposite. He’s trying to get the Swann/Bracken pair off of our lists, based on reasoning that contradicts something he posted earlier in the game.

Then he tries to undermine the analysis again –

I do want to give two cautions about this approach. 1. The symp maybe dead, so only looking at scenario's with a living symp may cause us to discard an valid FM pairing. 2. I think that in a king maker game it is going to more difficult than usual to rule out pairings.

The first point is something I had already acknowledged – I said very clearly that I was looking at the potential worst case scenario. And the second point is irrelevant to vote analysis of symp / FM pairs, at the very least.

When I later say that one or both of Vyrwel or Swann is probably evil, he responds in what I took to be an annoyed tone –

This shouldn't be terribly surprising to you. I appear in a lot of partnerships for the same reason you do. We've both concentrated our votes on a small number of players, and no one has voted for either of us, so there is no basis for cutting our lists down.

The interesting thing is, I actually looked over his list of partnerships that include me. And I could make strong arguments to cut many of them, so I think his assertion is incorrect. But again, he’s trying to make himself look better by increasing the number of scenarios that don’t include him.

After that, he again speaks out against the analysis –

I don't think you'll ever prove the existence of a symp beyond a reasonable doubt, and so while I think it's good to consider the possibility of a living symp I don't think we should base anything on the assumption that there is one. Which is particularly frustrating because I'd know a lot more now if I knew the symp was alive.

Ironically, in spite of his desire to not base anything on the assumption that there’s a symp….he turns around and does exactly that (14 minutes later) –

I'm going to try to reread the game now. We'll see how far I get before I give up. My vote is provisionally on Vyrwel, but that comes mostly out of the symp groupings and I'd much rather find some suspects based on FM pairings alone.

He then posts some analysis of his own. Trying to cut down some of the scenarios.

These are Cerwyn's Tiers from mid day one . . .

I'm not sure if there's anything to be made out of this, except, is an FM likely to rank their partner dead last... meh, maybe.

This is an argument that Cerwyn and Bracken aren’t FM partners. It’s a weak argument, given that FM have blatantly defended their partners in recent games. Note that it attempts to remove a pairing that includes Bracken.

Then we have Bracken's infamous final four:

I have to imagine that a symp would never put their master in this situation, and that an FM probably wouldn't put their partner there either (an FM might put a partner in the "Plumm" position, but we know Plumm isn't an FM.

Again, I completely disagree that an FM wouldn’t put his partner in his list of 4 lynch options. In fact, I’d argue the opposite - that’s exactly what a partner would do in a CF game. And I also disagree that a symp wouldn’t do it – it’s not as if he was voting for Swann.

He adds in a few other points, many of which are questionable. Reading it over, I got the impression that he was trying to slip a few self-serving points in among other analysis. Hiding his attempt to lead us away from himself and possibly Bracken.

Reyne posts this about a post made by Bracken –

Yeah ... I didn't follow any of this at all. In your plan you have me executing Vyrwel, me dying and then we start the day off with 4 players? I'm missing something.

This post is just ... wow. It's bad.

At the same time, Swann removes his vote on Vyrwel. Two minutes later, he edits in this reasoning –

ETA: I wanted to get that in quickly in case Tarbeck felt inclined to renew his vote. I'm having serious doubts about Tarbeck and Bracken just now.

All of a sudden, Swann is back to doubting Bracken. Just so happens to coincide with Reyne not liking a post by Bracken. He follows that up by saying –

As I just said, (somewhat) independent of the partnership analysis I'm suspicious of Tarbeck and Bracken, both for their behaviour today. Tarbeck in particular feels like he's trying to shunt the game in the direction he wants it to go. I get the impression that he's been trying to paint Vyrwel as a forgone conclusion.

So he’s suspicious of Bracken and Tarbeck, with the emphasis on Tarbeck. He makes a few negative points about Tarbeck. Gets to the part where Reyne asks people to do ‘tournament picks’ and has a final of Bracken and Tarbeck. Ultimately says he’d rather lynch Bracken than Tarbeck, but says he might change his mind.

Tarbeck v Bracken (equally difficult one) -> Bracken, I think. I don't promise not to flip flop.

Haven’t we seen this from Swann before? Remember the end of day 2, when he said that he’d lynch Bracken over Qorgyle, but that it was a very tough choice? Here’s the quote again -

If that's your final two then I can't help but agree (on the head/gut thing). My call is... Bracken, though you won't believe how I dithered over that.

Seems like a pattern. He votes Bracken, but agonizes over it. Suggests that the 2nd option could be just as good, and that he’d support both lynches. If they are partners, he’s distancing from Bracken while also giving off the suggestion that the other lynch would be fine too.

And if Bracken is his top choice, then why is he fighting with Tarbeck? Over the next few posts, he attacks Tarbeck. Up until the point when Tarbeck gets all WIFOM and asks Swann if he should vote for Bracken. Backed into a corner, Swann says yes.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

Conclusion

So…that’s it. Here’s a short summary:

1) Swann was the player most conscious of Grandison’s statement that a player with fewer than 7 posts would be lynched. He made an effort to get above that threshold.

2) Potential connection to Bracken.

- Starts day 2 by attacking Bracken for his “4 lynch options” list. Backs off for a bad reason. Instead shifts the argument toward Reyne.

- Has made a few attempts to get the Bracken/Swann pairing off of our suspect lists on day 3 (as well as other pairings that include Bracken).

- At the end of day 2, was confronted with a choice between Bracken and Qorgyle. Voted Bracken, but suggested that a Qorg lynch was also good. On day 3, was confronted with a choice between Bracken and Tarbeck. Same exact thing happened – voted Bracken, but suggested that a Tarbeck lynch was also good. Looks like distancing combined with an attempt to push the lynch in another direction.

3) Contradiction – he stated in his day 2 case against Reyne/Qorgyle that Reyne was suspicious for not voting for Qorg (his top suspect) until King Grandison declared Qorg one of the final 2 options. Basically, he was saying that a FM would vote for his partner if his partner was a final 2 option. Later, he argued that the Bracken/Swann pairing should be removed from our suspect lists, because he had voted for Bracken when Bracken was a final 2 option. This is a blatant, self-serving contradiction.

4) Casts a bandwagon vote on Cerwyn on day 1. Barely considers other suspects – just jumps on the most popular lynch mob.

5) He does his best to not provoke anybody throughout the game, unless his hand is forced. Also has wishy washy opinions.

6) Attempts to undermine Reyne and Plumm as VPI after their reveals. Only gets on board with them being VPI after other people do. Also, suggests that Reyne should use the Ninja power. Only changes his mind after other people disagree.

7) Attempts to undermine my day 3 analysis. It doesn’t look great for him, so naturally he has problems with it. Note how he is both disagreeing with the analysis and also trying to use it. Even to the point where he says that he doesn’t want to vote based off the analysis…..and then he casts a vote for Vyrwel because of the analysis (another contradiction).

I’m sure there’s more in the detailed thoughts in the main part of the case, but I think those are most of the major points. I could definitely see him having some sort of link to Bracken. I could also see him being evil even after you remove the various connections to Bracken. My vote goes to Swann.

[House Mooton]

Anyway, I am not impressed with Bracken's lack of defense today and his lack of digging. Seems completely at odds with his earlier persona.

I am equally unimpressed with Tarbeck. He does not look like someone weighing the options seriously at all. I am also still highly confused that he thinks Cerwyn is innocent based on the fact that he wanted me to go all ninja, taking down me (ninja), Plumm (healer) and a random player (probably Cerwyn) who probably wouldn't be an FM. A symp sacrificing himself so that 2 claimed roles that could harm his masters would call that a good day.

I am also worried that Swann made an attempt to analyze, but gave up part way through. His massive post of a re-read didn't have any conclusions (unless I missed them. I am not trying to diminish his effort, but I also can't help but feel that it was an attempt to look useful without a real drive behind it.

[House Stokeworth]

Round 2 -

Swann v Tarbeck

Cerwyn v Bracken

I am not giving you my candidate until you all pick a person to lynch. Chop chop!

My vote is Swann. Bracken is my 2nd choice at this point, based on the potential connection to Swann.

[House Mooton]

Wow. Compelling case on Swann, I have to say. It does bring up a few points I had forgotten I had with Swann. Specifically him going after me for Bracken's list while backing down from Bracken himself and his negative reaction to my reveal. Bracken's reaction to my reveal set off all kinds of alarm bells too.

[House Mooton]

Tarbeck is bugging the bejezzus out of me too, but he hasn't been until lately. This may effect the voting, but I think Vyrwel is an easy target and I've never really found him suspicious.

It is day 1.

7 players remain: Bracken, Cerwyn, Harclay, Swann, Tarbeck, Vyrwel, Yarwyck.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for Bracken (Swann, Tarbeck)

2 votes for Vyrwel (Bracken, Cerwyn)

1 vote for Swann (Yarwyck)

1 vote for Tarbeck (Vyrwel)

1 players have not voted: Harclay.

[House Thorne]

Conclusion

So…that’s it. Here’s a short summary:

1) Swann was the player most conscious of Grandison’s statement that a player with fewer than 7 posts would be lynched. He made an effort to get above that threshold.

2) Potential connection to Bracken.

- Starts day 2 by attacking Bracken for his “4 lynch options” list. Backs off for a bad reason. Instead shifts the argument toward Reyne.

- Has made a few attempts to get the Bracken/Swann pairing off of our suspect lists on day 3 (as well as other pairings that include Bracken).

- At the end of day 2, was confronted with a choice between Bracken and Qorgyle. Voted Bracken, but suggested that a Qorg lynch was also good. On day 3, was confronted with a choice between Bracken and Tarbeck. Same exact thing happened – voted Bracken, but suggested that a Tarbeck lynch was also good. Looks like distancing combined with an attempt to push the lynch in another direction.

3) Contradiction – he stated in his day 2 case against Reyne/Qorgyle that Reyne was suspicious for not voting for Qorg (his top suspect) until King Grandison declared Qorg one of the final 2 options. Basically, he was saying that a FM would vote for his partner if his partner was a final 2 option. Later, he argued that the Bracken/Swann pairing should be removed from our suspect lists, because he had voted for Bracken when Bracken was a final 2 option. This is a blatant, self-serving contradiction.

4) Casts a bandwagon vote on Cerwyn on day 1. Barely considers other suspects – just jumps on the most popular lynch mob.

5) He does his best to not provoke anybody throughout the game, unless his hand is forced. Also has wishy washy opinions.

6) Attempts to undermine Reyne and Plumm as VPI after their reveals. Only gets on board with them being VPI after other people do. Also, suggests that Reyne should use the Ninja power. Only changes his mind after other people disagree.

7) Attempts to undermine my day 3 analysis. It doesn’t look great for him, so naturally he has problems with it. Note how he is both disagreeing with the analysis and also trying to use it. Even to the point where he says that he doesn’t want to vote based off the analysis…..and then he casts a vote for Vyrwel because of the analysis (another contradiction).

I’m sure there’s more in the detailed thoughts in the main part of the case, but I think those are most of the major points. I could definitely see him having some sort of link to Bracken. I could also see him being evil even after you remove the various connections to Bracken. My vote goes to Swann.

:bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown: :bowdown:

Jesus christ that's a damning case. Swann.

I'd still keep Vyrwel as my second choice based both on the number of people he could be connected to and the various scummy things he's done that both I and others have called him out on. I just don't feel it's nearly as strong a case as this one.

[House Mooton]

Either one or both of Vyrwel or Swann is evil in every single one of my possible scenarios, except for #2. So unless 1) Cerwyn is symp to Bracken/Tarbeck, 2) the symp is dead, or 3) there was no symp, I am pretty confident that at least one of Vyrwel or Swann is evil.

How did Bracken jump to #2 instead of Vyrwel? Is it because of his connection to Swann?

[House Stokeworth]

How did Bracken jump to #2 instead of Vyrwel? Is it because of his connection to Swann?

Yep. Basically, I'm saying that I'd prefer to lynch Swann today, but I'd consider Bracken based on the connection to Swann.

I still suspect Vyrwel, but he's not an option for me today. The evidence pointing to Swann (and Bracken) is more important to me than the number of potential partnerships each player has.

[House Mooton]

You do realize, don't you, that I can't help but suspect you now Yarwyck? The length of a post directly correlates to the degree of your guilt. Sorry, it's a proven law.

[House Clegane]

Quick time travel back to my post from last night that nobody found compelling at the time.

Today we lynch Vyrwel. Tonight, Reyne dies.

We have Bracken, Cerwyn, Harclay, Swann, *EDIT* Vyrwel, Yarwyck

Vyrwel is guilty:

_symp_ | _partner_

Harclay for Swann

Swann for Harclay or Tarbeck

Tarbeck for Swann

Now, Yarwyck seems like an obvious choice. Frankly, I just don't think he is guilty for a number of reasons. If they are guilty, then they are probably going to win because there are just so many options. So, here's where I will lose people (if I haven't already with assuming I am guilty) and I assume Yarwyck is innocent.

This leaves:

_symp_ | _partner_

Cerwyn for Swann/Tarbeck/Yarwyck

Harclay for Cerwyn/Swann and Yarwyck

Swann for Harclay/Tarbeck and Yarwyck

Tarbeck for Swann/Yarwyck

Yarwyck for Tarbeck/Harclay and Swan

I still want Vyrwel because he is my dog in the race, but looking at this..I would not be terribly opposed to Swann today and Vyrwel tomorrow.

[OOC]

Ok, I just got a job offer that I want and I have a first date in an hour. Do with the game what you will, life is bliss. See you all later tonight in the thread.

[House Clegane]

Yep. Basically, I'm saying that I'd prefer to lynch Swann today, but I'd consider Bracken based on the connection to Swann.

I still suspect Vyrwel, but he's not an option for me today. The evidence pointing to Swann (and Bracken) is more important to me than the number of potential partnerships each player has.

Fine, whatever. Vote Swann for today if you have to. Consider me as an FM _in and of itself_ also though. I've been pretty much consistent throughout and working to find evils. Yeah it is WIFOM at the end there but whatever.

Time for drinks with a lovely girl!

[House Mooton]

The part I didn't get about your post is where you are coming up with the partnerships. You just jump in having made some assumptions and don't show your work at any step.

[House Thorne]

[OOC]

Ok, I just got a job offer that I want and I have a first date in an hour. Do with the game what you will, life is bliss. See you all later tonight in the thread.

Wow, congratulations. :cheers:

[House Stokeworth]

You do realize, don't you, that I can't help but suspect you now Yarwyck? The length of a post directly correlates to the degree of your guilt. Sorry, it's a proven law.

I knew you'd say that. :P

[House Mooton]

I've been pretty much consistent throughout and working to find evils.

I don't think you have been though. I think your style has changed quite a bit from pre-reveal/post-reveal. You are much lower key now and don't bother to provoke people like you had been earlier. You give off the air of someone who's not been able to recover after a jolt to your system.

I also keep coming back to something Yarwyck mentioned Day 1 and I commented on. You went out of your way to beat your chest and yell from the rooftops that you wouldn't be lead. You've attacked everyone. Making everyone your 'enemy' is similar to making no one your enemy.