AGOT Mafia Game 72 - Adventures Beyond The Wall

[House Thorne]

Dodging the modkill. Please, for me until tonight. :grouphug:

So, you are asking for a free pass to day 2?

Why didn't I think of that? :smoking:

[House Velaryon]

Far from it. Dayne looks worst to me, Swann came on and said he didn't have time, while Vyrwel hasn't been on during serious phase. Dayne came on, made two awful posts then disappeared. That's far worse in my eyes.

Dayne made three posts, and the third was relatively decent.

Swann didn't have time for either RP and real phases, shit happens.

But how probable it is that only time Vyrwel had for us coincided exactly with RP phase?

[House Velaryon]

edit: Loving the "no-one would do fake quotes" one post down and 1 minute after I made up a fake quote from Grandy. :D

You weren't serious. Jokes don't count.

[House Thorne]

Dayne made three posts, and the third was relatively decent.

Swann didn't have time for either RP and real phases, shit happens.

But how probable it is that only time Vyrwel had for us coincided exactly with RP phase?

Without getting into alt speculation, I can think of a handful of people it could make perfect sense for. One based on times alone, then more based on having to have an early night for one reason or another, then work or the like the next day.

As I said, if he doesn't come back tonight and contribute he'll have some answering to do. Until then, it is perfectly reasonable. He posted between 6 and 9.30 in the evening central european time. Prime mafia time for half our players, no?

[House Thorne]

You weren't serious. Jokes don't count.

I was being perfectly serious. :ph34r:

[House Targaryen]

Mod announcment:

As the first hour of the game had been an extra given to you by LC Jon Snow, Kenning won't be modkilled as he managed to avoid a modkill by ca. 10 minutes.

(well, I wouldn't have modkilled Kenning even if he had missed the limit, but I would have given him the 'cursed' role instead)

[House Velaryon]

A long period of absence followed by a short post jumping on the lynch mob is suspicious.

Yesterday I did warn you all I would be probable absent and gave you a reason. It's rather hard to post when having negative money at my internet account, don't you agree?

I find your justification poor,

Bracken doesn't. :shrug:

If he admitted understanding and accepting my point (even besides of that making him looking a bit worse), I don't see why you can't.

In fact, Bracken's first reaction to my vote was exactly same as yours, but minutes later he had enough common sense to see I was right and enough bravery to admit this. He really tried to understand my point and succeeded at this. Did you ever try?

I don't really support Reyne, but I would support a Qorgyle lynch. I think the impression that he's mostly coasting and that his contributions are bloated quite accurate; like his long post with lots of quotes encouraging Vyrwel to contribute (which I won't say he shouldn't do).

Please, be more precise? Have you any other reasons to suspect Qorgyle unless stated by Reyne? Can you produce any proof?

OMGUS

I knew you would say this. Now, if you are innocent, just think why I haven't OMGUSed Qorgyle, who voted me first.

[House Redfort]

Okay, I'm back. Sorry, I fell asleep last night before doing the vote count. I'm pretty overwhelmed with everything I've missed now.

Fuck. Less than eight hours to go, and I still have no idea who is scum--or who is innocent. This is not good at all.

I vowed today that I would restrain the urge to go with whatever gut whim caught my attention and make a safe choice that most people would be satisfied with, because I didn't want to take risks on Day One...but I don't know. Again, I'm leaning toward taking out one of the less active players just because I'm a coward who doesn't want to make hard decisions. At least players who talk more give us more in endgame.

I really wish this day was longer. I'd like to reread every player and write a blurb on them, but I'm supposed to give my targets hours of advance warning. Just responding to random posts as I catch up with the thread.

Do you find the bickering to be suspicious? Any one over another?

Right now, I need to reread the thread from top to bottom, but going off the top of my head...I remember people being rather quick to label each other as evil. It could have been douchiness, but misrepresenting trivial shit is also scummy. I accused Yarwyck of this, but I did feel that everyone was guilty of throwing around accusations rather than sincerely probing for motivations to determine people's alignments. I remember thinking you were misinterpreting people's comments, Plumm's overreactions were weird, and I also got a bad impression from Qorgyle, but I'll reread to see if there was anything behind it.

You read that post as being completely genuine?

It was more that I thought Yarwyck's post came across as not genuine. I'll admit Cerwyn hadn't really stuck out to me one way or the other--although now that he's the vote leader, I'll reread him and make a decision for myself.

[House Velaryon]

I was being perfectly serious. :ph34r:

You failed. :ph34r:

[House Baratheon]

Alright, I'm here and I've read everything. I'm working on a super post of genius* to summarise my thoughts on all this nonsense the days proceedings. (Man missing a big chunk of the day sucks).

*May not contain actual genius.

[House Clegane]

It was more that I thought Yarwyck's post came across as not genuine. I'll admit Cerwyn hadn't really stuck out to me one way or the other--although now that he's the vote leader, I'll reread him and make a decision for myself.

Really? That surprises me. His reaction was not only exactly what I thought but it was the exact reaction I'd expect from Yar.

If you want to go for someone quiet, I'd probably go with Vyrwel if I was going to go with anyone from the group of Vyrwel, Dayne, Swann, and Kenning.

[House Redfort]

Mod, could you give us an end-of-day timer?

Players in the less-than-seven posts pool:

Vyrwel

Dayne

Kenning

Swann

Except now it's WIFOM time: would the FM be more or less likely to be in that group of four players, given that I announced my first priority would be from the group of low posters?

GAH! *head explodes*

[House Thorne]

Mod, could you give us an end-of-day timer?

Players in the less-than-seven posts pool:

Vyrwel

Dayne

Kenning

Swann

Except now it's WIFOM time: would the FM be more or less likely to be in that group of four players, given that I announced my first priority would be from the group of low posters?

GAH! *head explodes*

Less likely, unless they had a genuine reason for not getting on i'd say...

Which means it's pretty much useless :(

[House Baratheon]

It's difficult to try to get into a game one it's progressed this far, so I'm just going to write this stream of consciousness style and see what comes out. I'm not promising it will all be gold.

THE KING: All in all I think Grandison's approach to Kinging has been reasonable. There's nothing about it that smells of scum. I think Rule 2 is a perfectly reasonable thing to say but not a great idea to follow through on (and I don't only say this as one of the lowest posters). There's some chance it will discourage low flying FM, but there's no real reason to believe that the FM are among us low posters. This apparently puts me into direct opposition with Plumm who thought Rule 2 was a reasonable thing to do, but that it shouldn't have been announced. Which brings me to...

BRACKEN AND YARWYCK: Bracken (I think it was Bracken) suggested that Yarwyck might have been a symp telegraphing Grandison's intent to his masters (Grandison's intent being so obvious that there's no other reason a person would explicitly explain it). The only person who didn't seem to get that Rule 2 might be more useful if it was announced on the thread was Plumm. So, Bracken, did you mean to suggest that Plumm was Yarwyck's master? Because from I can really see this post as an attempt to subtly clue Plumm in that his argument didn't make a lot of sense. Yarwyck would also get a little distancing in as a bonus. I didn't find Bracken and Yarwyck's actual debate all that suspicious. In general I don't like people trying to shut down a particular line of questioning (however insipid they think it), but I found myself sympathising more with Bracken's position as the debate went on. These kind of clashes are far more useful for what comes out at the periphery than for what happens between the actual combatants...

CERWYN: Which is why Cerwyn's defense of Bracken sits poorly with me. Whether or not Bracken was being a useful antagonist, letting him be an antagonist is far more useful than encouraging everyone to see the useful role he's fulfilling. Outright defenses of players never look good and (as has been pointed out) smack of sucking up to an obviously strong player. Added to that, whoever said Cerwyn kept himself out of the controversy was correct. I'd have to reread to check where this came from, but my impression of him was that he was more a commentator despite his initial defense of Bracken. Also his reread of himself was pretty stretchy. Cerwyn's defenses of Bracken and Vyrwel were straight up defenses while the other defenses he found to establish a pattern were the kind of sideways defenses that naturally come from attacking people. I don't think he establishes the pattern he's attempting to.

Alright, I'm going to post this now because I want to do a bit of rereading before I comment further. At this point I really get the suspicion on Cerwyn, I feel reasonably good about Bracken, and think there's an argument to be made for Yarwyck being Plumm's symp.

So... yeah... massively original. :rolleyes:

[House Thorne]

Cerwyn's defenses of Bracken and Vyrwel were straight up defenses while the other defenses he found to establish a pattern were the kind of sideways defenses that naturally come from attacking people. I don't think he establishes the pattern he's attempting to.

So, please explain, who was I attacking at the time, to naturally end up with a sideways defence?

[House Connington]

Yesterday I did warn you all I would be probable absent and gave you a reason. It's rather hard to post when having negative money at my internet account, don't you agree?

I'm sorry if RL is giving you a hard time, but there are ways and ways to make a return. I found yours suspicious.

Bracken doesn't. :shrug:

If he admitted understanding and accepting my point (even besides of that making him looking a bit worse), I don't see why you can't.

Because I'm a different player who thinks differently.

In fact, Bracken's first reaction to my vote was exactly same as yours, but minutes later he had enough common sense to see I was right and enough bravery to admit this. He really tried to understand my point and succeeded at this. Did you ever try?

I, in fact, agree with Cerwyn about Vyrwel. He didn’t warn he would we absent but I think chances are he’s got some RL shit going on, rather than him lurking, reading the thread and cackling, refusing to contribute to discussion at all as part of a clever plan. I acknowledge defending other players is an easier approach to the game than attacking them, what I'm arguing is that your (to a point, valid) accusation sounds forced. Cerwyn may be guilty, but if he is you guys have him covered. I'd rather look elsewhere.

Please, be more precise? Have you any other reasons to suspect Qorgyle unless stated by Reyne?

Qorgyle doesn’t really have enough many posts that I can assemble a case based on them. I might give him a re-read an try... but I'm making no promises.

Can you produce any proof?

Proof? Do you have any proof that Cerwyn is guilty? I have my opinion, fallible as it is.

I knew you would say this. Now, if you are innocent, just think why I haven't OMGUSed Qorgyle, who voted me first.

Because he didn’t? Qorgyle never voted for you or I suck at re-reads. He jumped right onto the Cerwyn mob and there he remains to the best of my knowledge.

[House Baratheon]

Too much of a stretch.

It's exactly the sort of argumentation I'd expect from a guilty, making a big fuss about minor things, like coinciding terminology, gender slips and so on. Killers adore such stuff, but innos, I think, should avoid using it outside of secondary proof for a really good case.

This, definitely. Plumm, are you really arguing that two people using the word "rabid" is suspicious? I could see your argument if Reyne had been sheeping along behind Grandison on a bunch of things, but I really don't see one similar opinion as amounting to what you suggest.

[House Connington]

So, please explain, who was I attacking at the time, to naturally end up with a sideways defence?

Who were you attacking at the time?

[House Baratheon]

So, please explain, who was I attacking at the time, to naturally end up with a sideways defence?

... Actually you're right, I completely misremembered the content of those posts. Though I don't read either as a strong defense in the sense that the Bracken or Vyrwel defenses were. One is agreeing with someone's position, the other is offering an interpretation of a player's opinion, and then saying you didn't really agree with it. Either way, your conclusion was that you were trying to diffuse the debate that you'd earlier been praising Bracken for creating.

I will agree with Harclay that your defense of Vyrwel makes sense.

[House Redfort]

Right now, I'm in the middle of rereading the thread from top to bottom, but just pointing out something to Swann:

I need to get some sleep. My vote is on Cerwyn. My other suspects right now are Bracken and Plumm.

So Yarwyck is definitely not Plumm's symp, although they could still be FM partners distancing.