what is the chance of HBO seeing it through?

[Seanathin]

If they make it to Storm I think the rest are a forgone conclusion, provided that GRRM can get the books out.

[Padraig]

I doubt it would get further than a fourth season though, but we'll see. its incredibly unlikely that book six will be even half written by the time that they're ready to film a fifth season, so the show ends there.

Wow. Mr Optimist. :)

[daimonion]

The thought of seeing a third season seems almost too good to be true, so i guess that means it is...

My guess is two. And that would be pretty darn great, actually.

[Werthead]

With the somewhat welcome news that GoT's budget is going to be very manageable, half that of Rome's, it's likely the show can survive a lot longer than the aforementioned shows HBO cancelled prematurely. Deadwood failed because of creator issues, and since the creator was needed to carry on with Deadwood his departure to make some surfing show meant the end of that series. OTOH, if David Benioff or DB Weiss decided to leave GoT after two or three or five seasons, the show could continue under a new creative team, as the show isn't 100% dependent on them, especially if it's a big success.

With regards to Carnivale, that was cancelled after Ronald D. Moore left to make BSG and the show's creator, taking over as showrunner, couldn't keep the budget under control. When he refused a budget cut, the show was cancelled. GoT's budget is less likely to get out of control in the same manner since the people working on it are more experienced producers and project managers.

The only reason GoT might fail is if it gets very low ratings due to dubious marketing. It's a hard show to sell, since those tuning in expecting to see wizards hurling fireballs at one another are going to be disappointed and the 'fantasy' label might put off people who are fans of The Tudors and Rome who'd otherwise enjoy the show but won't tune in because they'd expect to see wizards hurling fireballs at one another. I suspect that paradox is what the show will have to overcome to attract viewers, but I think it's doable.

I could see 3 seasons getting ordered. 10 eps for game of thrones, 11 eps (or a two hour finale of a ten ep order, so really a 11 hour order) for book two, and 12-13 hours ordered for season 3. The fourth season would be a combine of Crows and Dragons, but due to declining interest would only get 10 episodes (with the majority of the episodes dedicated to the events of Dragons, since the events of Feast are mostly boring or about side characters). Of course all this is dependent on If George has finished the fifth book by then (late 2013, early 2014). I doubt it would get further than a fourth season though, but we'll see. its incredibly unlikely that book six will be even half written by the time that they're ready to film a fifth season, so the show ends there.

As mentioned previously, the current plan seems to be to combine the events of Books 4 and 5 across two years, not just one season. With the series likely to have longer breaks between seasons than normal (as with Rome), that gives GRRM more like six or seven years to finish Book 6 and another two beyond that to finish 7. It's tight (for the seventh and final part) but doable. If the book series goes more than seven volumes, than the TV series will likely face more serious problems at that point.

[lacuna]

Personally, I'd rather have George finish the books at his own pace, feeling good about the finished product, than have him rush the last two (or more?) books to stay ahead of the show. Then again, I haven't seen the show yet, so maybe I'll change my mind? :P

The depressed realist in me says we'll be lucky to get three seasons, since I'm not sure the audience for adult fantasy is quite there yet. But I also know that I'm not qualified to state that as a fact...

[Lord Varys]

I doubt that GRRM would let himself get into rushing to finish the series by the mere fact that there are people who want to make a series out of his stuff.

He took and takes his time with ADwD, and is going to the same with TWoW and ADoS, and any book he has to stuff in between.

[Werthead]

I think the HBO series will add a certain degree of pressure to GRRM to finish the last two books in a more timely manner, especially once he overcomes the timeline/structural problems of AFFC/ADWD and (hopefully) has a clearer run down to the end of the remaining two books.

I agree he probably won't compromise the quality of the books for the sake of the TV series, but it will, at the very least, add a consideration that was not present before when it comes to writing the books. Whether that results in the books being written faster in a good way or in a rushed way remains to be seen. But I do genuinely think GRRM wants to get the last two books out a lot faster than AFFC/ADWD and may welcome this added incentive. Or not. We'll see, I guess.

[Alexia]

What is the plan for ADWD and AFFC, should we get the gravy and they take it that far? Would it be one longer season mixed together? Would they do each book in a separate season (leaving half the cast twiddling their thumbs for a year?) or merge the two together and do it over the course of two seasons?

Personally, I would want them to merge the two together and either do a longer season or two rather than having to do without favorite characters each year.

[Amsra]

The only reason GoT might fail is if it gets very low ratings due to dubious marketing. It's a hard show to sell, since those tuning in expecting to see wizards hurling fireballs at one another are going to be disappointed and the 'fantasy' label might put off people who are fans of The Tudors and Rome who'd otherwise enjoy the show but won't tune in because they'd expect to see wizards hurling fireballs at one another. I suspect that paradox is what the show will have to overcome to attract viewers, but I think it's doable.

I have to agree that the marketing angle is crucial. I think they will have more success stressing the intrigue and power struggle angle than the fantasy angle. As far as the wizards hurling fireballs, if you really think about it, there really was not a lot of that in LOTR either in terms of screen time. I mean honestly, for a powerful wizard, Gandalf really didn't do a whole lot :)

I think the long term success of the series is going to depend on the actors and character interaction.

My 2cp....

[Werthead]

What is the plan for ADWD and AFFC, should we get the gravy and they take it that far? Would it be one longer season mixed together? Would they do each book in a separate season (leaving half the cast twiddling their thumbs for a year?) or merge the two together and do it over the course of two seasons?

Personally, I would want them to merge the two together and either do a longer season or two rather than having to do without favorite characters each year.

We - and presumably HBO and D&D - will need to see ADWD before we can say for sure. My guess is that the events of ADWD and AFFC will be chronologically arranged next to one another and then stripped over two shorter (8-10 episode) seasons, a bit like how the LotR moves were arranged compared to the books.

One extra-long season (14-16 episodes) might be doable and possibly preferable to HBO if it means getting the series done in six rather than seven seasons. But based on the casting sides and comments from the castmembers in Belfast, it does sound like the two-season angle might be what they are thinking about now.

[Erik of Hazelfield]

I think the fantasy label might not be as offputting as some of you suggest. Doing darker stuff is in fashion these days - just take a look at The Dark Knight. It's been hailed by audiences and critics alike despite the fact that it's based on a bloody comic book.

With the right marketing, people will swallow this. People looking for magic thunder and swordplay and whatnot won't be disappointed either, because this series contains plenty of those too. We have dragons and wights and Others and a fire sorceress. We have horses and torneys and battlefields and knights in shining armour.

I may be a bit naïve, but I think if this series is just good enough, the rest will follow. There's no reason for HBO to end a wildly popular series. The biggest hope is that it'll be as good as we hope.

[Padraig]

We - and presumably HBO and D&D - will need to see ADWD before we can say for sure.

Yes. I doubt they will have any solid plans for S4 until (crosses fingers) they get up to planning for S3. They'll have more material to work with then and they'll also have 2 seasons behind them. They'll know what the cast are thinking and what the viewers are liking. If some plot isn't working so well on screen then they might choose to downplay it. TV is such a collaborative enterprise theat its difficult to plan too far ahead.

[adamsputnik]

I wonder what sort of assurances they've given George? I don't suppose he'd be apt to spill such information though, especially since undoubtedly it depends on so many things. Would be unbelievable if they went out to seven seasons, though. It's just great that they've even signed on for one, really.

[Han Shot First]

Slim, I think. The first season has to really be a big thing for us to see a second, third and and a fourth book, which would equate to incredibly boring television.

[Ran]

HBO doesn't generally do multiple season orders, especially for shows that have never aired (now, True Blood has received a promised fourth season despite the third season being in production still -- this could happen for GoT if it proves a big hit, but I think it's true that it's a harder sell than True Blood).

The only assurance they'd give George (and the executive producers) is that if it performs well in relation to its budget, it'll get another season.

[Padraig]

The first season has to really be a big thing for us to see a second, third and and a fourth book, which would equate to incredibly boring television.

You really think HBO would bother producing a series if they think there is a slim chance they would pursue it beyond 1 season? There is a lot of other entreprises HBO could put their money into. I understand that people may not want to raise their hopes but sometimes it all gets ridiculous. :)

And there is no point looking at the 4th book on its own when it comes to the TV show, sine they would combine it with book 5. (Although I did love aFfC).

[Ran]

That's a good point. If HBO thought this show wasn't capable of going past a season without it being some sort of huge hit, they wouldn't have bothered with it. There's a certain level of expectations which it has to meet, but HBO must believe it's possible for it to reach that mark.

[Werthead]

HBO's logic with GoT appears to be clear. They want a big-budget costume drama with an epic sweep which will simultaneously do well with the audience and critics. They loved the critical acclaim Rome and Deadwood got, and were happy with Deadwood's ratings (the second-most-popular show on the channel after The Sopranos). They're also no doubt aware of them losing some traction over the last few years to the likes of Showtime, and may have seen The Tudors as the type of show HBO would have done in the past but has now gone to a competitor.

To this end GoT is a logical project to pursue over a long period of time. It's based on an existing series of books which many talented producers and writers can bring to the screen. If Benioff and/or Weiss decided to leave at some point, GoT could continue. When Milch decided to leave Deadwood, or at least attempt to do another project simultaneously, HBO realised they couldn't carry on without his full cooperation and canned the show. GoT is not as vulnerable to that fate. In addition, the show, as we know now, will have a vastly smaller budget than Rome (and possibly Carnivale, which I think was more expensive than the planned GoT budget even before it went out of control in the second season), which should render it less likely to canning for budgetary reasons.

In addition, whilst the 'hard sell' nature of the series has been noted, the reverse of those factors is also true: the show has enough supernatural elements to intrigue the True Blood audience (or so HBO might hope) without alienating the more serious and historically-minded Rome and Deadwood audience.

For these reasons, I think HBO have decided that GoT is a project that potentially has very long legs, provided they get the marketing right and the quality comes in at the level they want.

[Ran]

According to Wikipedia, the per episode budget of Carnivalé for the first season was approximately $4 million. So a bit cheaper on a per-episode basis.

[Han Shot First]

You really think HBO would bother producing a series if they think there is a slim chance they would pursue it beyond 1 season? There is a lot of other entreprises HBO could put their money into. I understand that people may not want to raise their hopes but sometimes it all gets ridiculous. :)

And there is no point looking at the 4th book on its own when it comes to the TV show, sine they would combine it with book 5. (Although I did love aFfC).

First of all, I haven't heard anyone officially state that they'll combine the fourth and fifth book -- that's speculation, especially since the fourth is more then enough material for a fourth season. And no, while HBO may not just be looking at a first season, a second and a third just seem too big for television.