what is the chance of HBO seeing it through?

[Ninepenny]

I agree with others in that I don't think HBO would have greenlit it if they didn't think it could be successful enough to see it through.

a second and a third just seem too big for television.

It's Not TV. It's HBO

[Padraig]

And no, while HBO may not just be looking at a first season, a second and a third just seem too big for television.

Besides the Blackwater, why? The series doesn't change that much in aCoK.

I'm not saying S2 or S3 are very likely, i'm just saying that you can't dismiss it as slim either. HBO must be going into this hoping for the best. Otherwise, as I said, I can't see why they would bother at all.

Its speculation to say that they would only film aFfC also for S4. :) Since both of us are speculating, its a matter of deciding what is the more likely. From a TV point of view, dropping half the cast for a season doesn't make a lot of sense. (And dropping the other half for the next season). One extra long season or 2 seasons to span aFfC and aDwD, it doesn't much matter. I just hope HBO have to make that decision. :)

[Han Shot First]

The Blackwater, The Green Fork, The Whispering Wood (which they might not show -- which would be a mistake) and The Battle of the Wall are huge in size and scale. And the cast just gets bigger and bigger. Shows like The Wire and The Sopranos can maintain casts because of their setting. It's harder to shoot a big cast.

[Wastrel]

Shows like The Wire and The Sopranos can maintain casts because of their setting.

I'm not sure what you mean here.

[Han Shot First]

Maybe this is my limited knowledge of budget, but isn't it cheaper to film in Jersey (Sopranos) than than in Belfast?

[Ran]

"The Whispering Wood" is not huge. If they describe it exactly as it's done in the chapter (which they should -- it'd be a bit of a mistake to do otherwise, IMO), it'll be a very effective, and not very expensive, scene. The whole point is that it's night and for the most part all there is is the impression if steel flashing in moonlight, and the sounds of horses, horns, swords, and men dying. The only CG they'd really need is a momentary glimpse of Jaime's column before the ambush, IMO.

I've no idea whether shooting in Belfast is cheaper than shooting in Jersey. I suspect that it is comparable at worst, though.

[Lord Varys]

The only real great battle will be the Blackwater - and even it would only be shown in parts, as would the Battle at the Green Fork, if they would stay close to the books - and that would be in the second season.

I actually rather liked the way the did the battles in 'Rome', and what is true about 'Rome' is true about this series as well: It's not about battles, it's about the story, and the story is not about battles ;-).

The whole series would lose very less if whole battles were not shown on screen, only be talked about. That is what the characters in the books do all the time.

But I'm confident that we will see at least Tyrion's herotic deeds at the Gree Fork, and that the Blackwater will be impressive, if we get a second season. This battle is the central event of the book.

[The Anti-Targ]

I'll be surprised (and disappointed) if we don't get to the end of 'Clash of Kings', I'll be very pleased if we got through 'a Storm of Swords', I'll be back to surprised (but this time very happy) if we get to 'a Feast for Crows', I'll be amazed (and ecstatic) if we get any further than that.

Unlike other HBO series that have lasted only a few seasons, at least with this one you'll always have the books

[The Anti-Targ]

The only real great battle will be the Blackwater - and even it would only be shown in parts, as would the Battle at the Green Fork, if they would stay close to the books - and that would be in the second season.

I actually rather liked the way the did the battles in 'Rome', and what is true about 'Rome' is true about this series as well: It's not about battles, it's about the story, and the story is not about battles ;-).

The whole series would lose very less if whole battles were not shown on screen, only be talked about. That is what the characters in the books do all the time.

But I'm confident that we will see at least Tyrion's herotic deeds at the Gree Fork, and that the Blackwater will be impressive, if we get a second season. This battle is the central event of the book.

Gotta have the Whispering Wood though. The crowd will cheer (or at least they would if it was in a movie theatre) when __________ captures ____________

[Padraig]

I've no idea whether shooting in Belfast is cheaper than shooting in Jersey. I suspect that it is comparable at worst, though.

Indeed. The producers have been indicating what a great deal they got in Belfast. I can't imagine anywhere in the US is very cheap to shoot. But don't know much about that.

[daimonion]

and that the Blackwater will be impressive, if we get a second season. This battle is the central event of the book.

And in the books a lot of the Battle of the Blackwater is shown from behind the walls of Kings landing. Joffrey with his trebuchets, Cersei and Sansa in the dining hall (?) Sansa in her tower. The Hound chickening out. Clip in some battlescenes seen from afar and very up close, green flames and smoke rising to the sky and it will seem a lot more big and epic than it is.

[Ran]

Just a thought for trying to estimate if Belfast is cheaper from New Jersey, incentives, tax breaks, etc. aside.

Compare per capita GDP between Northern Ireland and Jersey. This has an impact on what the real wages are, comparatively. Suffice it to say, wages in Northern Ireland are lower than in Jersey, which as far as I can tell strongly correlates to lower production costs. Take a look at New Zealand and compare to Australia and Canada -- the New Zealand film board touts the fact that estimates suggest filming in N.Z. is 20% cheaper than in Australia, and 30% cheaper than in Canada. Then you compare GDPs (source: Wikipedia, providing 2008 figures) and you can kind-of, sort-of see that reflected in the differences.

So, I'll hazard that even without the tax incentives, production in N.I. as opposed to the U.S. is roughly 20% cheaper. So the $30 million they're going to spend in N.I. (the other $15 million, it seems, is going to VFX, non-U.K. crew, and so on) would be the same as $37.5 spent in the states, so now the budget may very well be approaching the same purchasing power as $60 million in the U.S. (or $6 million per episode), if I'm calculating things right. Which would be more money than HBO has spent on a regular series, per episode, since Rome.

This is speculative, though. GDP may be a poor comparison for calculating wages and thus services-related production tasks in N.I. I will continue to dig around for more information.

ETA: Of course, GDP comparisons are not straightforward, I realized. Italy's GDP is lower than that in the U.S., but Rome specifically is said repeatedly to be one of the most expensive places in the world to film, so obviously there are other factors than just wages to consider.

[Wastrel]

Also, when it comes to cast, the main actors will presumably want England wages rather than Northern Ireland wage.

[Erik of Hazelfield]

One thing we haven't really discussed is the potential for DVD sales. A full 7-season series box with a complete and satisfying ending would sell much better than an incomplete set cancelled halfway through, right?

The difficulty here for HBO is that the story doesn't really allow for them to cancel gracefully. Even if they do it at a natural break in the story (e.g. at the end of ASoS), there's still a ton of unresolved stuff going on (plus it would render Dany's storyline completely reduntant). No one wants to buy half a story.

If they get as far as season 4/5 and it doesn't do very well in ratings - do you think there's even a remote possibility they might go with my reasoning and finish the series anyway, hoping to cash in on the DVD sales?

[Humble Asskicker]

The major obstacle that GoT has against it is that it's an adult fantasy. With movies like Twilight and Harry Potter, geared at adolescents and pre-adolescents, the "child fantasy" has not only become accepted but normal as enjoyable fare without being pidgeon-holed as too "geeky," I think that has set an expectation on what kind of fantasy is okay for the mainstream.

While unfair, I think Lord of the Rings also receives this kid-friendly appellation in that they are PG-13 movies. Even an Oscar can't battle this mentality.

GoT is flat-out adult fare. It's really dark adult fare at that, darker than almost any other show out there. No other show that I'm aware of has not only its main character killed in the first season, but have a tone as such that this isn't an evil deed, but one of incompetence, done by a faction that you can even grow to root for.

The story will beat everything else out there, but it is one contained in a fantastical world.

GoT is quite a bit more rough and grey in its content than Lost even. I don't think that the modern television genre consumer is tuned to that level of complexity in fantasy, or will be desirous of it.

It's more geared toward The Wire and Deadwood crowd. But that crowd too will be put off because I imagine most of them consider fantasy a low form of story-telling, that by its very nature cannot reach the auspicious heights of importance that those two likewise complex series managed.

And so both parties will be leery in giving the show a chance.

That will easily be the biggest obstacle: finding an audience in the first place.

From there I think it will be easier. The story does after all get better and better. Storm is up there on the pinnacle of not just fantasy story-telling, but any modern story period.

Expenses can be worked around. You don't need to see battles to impress the intensity of an embattled territory. I think of GoT as equivalent to I, Claudius. I, Claudius was composed of really low budget sets - which became irrelevant as you were engaged in an awesome story filled with tremendous acting. Epic battles weren't needed in the least.

I think what's favorable to GoT is well-paced it is, and how eventful. There are ton of twists and turns going on, and even the slower build-up isn't all that slow. And then approximately half-way through the shit really hits the fan and it's this huge rollercoaster ride. For the viewer who doesn't know what they're getting into, this will be like no TV show they've ever seen before.

But again, the bleakness will put a lot of people off. Rome tread some dark territory, but even that one didn't go so far as to kill off Pullo and Verinicus, leave Verinicus' children unrescued from slavery and fending for themselves, and everyone they ever knew slaughtered or believed killed without ever finding out otherwise.

As far as books 4/5, well...while people argue that four was a good book that took its time addressing the aftermath of war and the resultant destruction (I disagree and consider it mostly redundant, as Arya's chapters already send home the impact of it), I don't think it would function as terribly impressive visually. The rest of the books aren't out yet, so we don't even know the quality of those in written form, much less how they would play out on screen.

[Werthead]

Also, when it comes to cast, the main actors will presumably want England wages rather than Northern Ireland wage.

They're both part of the UK, so the wages should be the same. I think you mean 'British wages rather than American' wages, which with the exchange rate difference will be notable.

[Seanathin]

As far as books 4/5, well...while people argue that four was a good book that took its time addressing the aftermath of war and the resultant destruction (I disagree and consider it mostly redundant, as Arya's chapters already send home the impact of it), I don't think it would function as terribly impressive visually. The rest of the books aren't out yet, so we don't even know the quality of those in written form, much less how they would play out on screen.

This slowness will work better when cut with with content from Dance, becuase both books make up seasons 4 and 5.

I think that if it gets to season 2 it will pick up a bigger audeance then, becuase people will be able to push the DVDs on others. I know I had a hard time getting people into sci-fi shows untill I was able to phycialy put disks in their hands. But if HBO markets it right, putting more of the midevil quazi-historical bit forward it might suck some people in. Also season 1 isn't that heavy on anything fantasical, outside of the prologe, and the birth of dragons.

[Padraig]

They're both part of the UK, so the wages should be the same. I think you mean 'British wages rather than American' wages, which with the exchange rate difference will be notable.

And given its hard to avoid paying wages when making a TV show, it seems we are scraping the bottom of the barrel when it comes to what may go wrong. :P

I don't think it would function as terribly impressive visually.

I can agree with that. Its why I loved the book but its another reason why it will probably get mixed up with aDwD.

But that crowd too will be put off because I imagine most of them consider fantasy a low form of story-telling, that by its very nature cannot reach the auspicious heights of importance that those two likewise complex series managed.

It seems to me (based on comments in the Entertainment board) that the whole HBO thing is a huge plus. HBO has this reputation that no other channel can compete with. Viewers may have not given this show a chance on other channels but it sounds like people would be willing to at least try it out on HBO. If HBO thinks it is worthwhile, then there must be something to this.

And aGoT does end on a very positive note. :) GRRM completely fools us with the positive note but at the time, things looked grand for both Robb and Dany.

[Wastrel]

They're both part of the UK, so the wages should be the same. I think you mean 'British wages rather than American' wages, which with the exchange rate difference will be notable.

Wages differ markedly in different parts of the UK. As Ran notes, high-GDP places tend to have higher wages and higher prices, while low-GDP places tend to have lower wages and lower prices. He suggests looking at the GDP figures for Northern Ireland, but this would be misleading, since the actors will want wages on a level with those in England, which are presumably higher than in Northern Ireland.

As an example: according to the internet, an office administrator earning £20k in London would be earning £14k in Belfast. Looking at the GDP of NI compared to America would give you predicted actor wages at the Belfast level, but in fact the actor wages (for the stars, even if not for the extras) will presumably be at the London level, which I assume is, as in other jobs, substantially higher than the Belfast level.

-----

On adults refusing to watch fantasy: it's possible, but I think it's unlikely. After Lord of the Rings, and after True Blood, and after Lost, and after Battlestar Galactica, and after Rome, all of which pushed audiences in different ways into Game of Thrones territory, I think this is exactly the time when a lot of adults are out there willing to watch adult-fare fantasy stuff. And if a few of them try, and like it, and recommend it, I think there's an even larger market of people who are willing to give it a try if they've heard it's good. [Eg I know many people who don't watch sci-fi who were willing to try BSG when they heard about how good it was]

As for the Wire crowd: if the critics praise it, the Wire crowd will watch it, at least on DVD.

I think that if this series is done well, it will be succesful. It's both populist and intelligent - it's the sort of bloody soap opera that anyone can enjoy for the fight scenes, while also being able to appeal to critics and hardcore fans. [And don't underestimate that hardcore fan market. The ASOIAF base may not be that big, but if this gets made and made well it will quickly get the support of the whole fantasy community, which is actually pretty damn big, and pretty damn good at buying DVD boxed sets. That market may not be enough to make it a massive success by itself, but it should be big enough to keep the series afloat for one or two seasons while word-of-mouth gets around to bring in more casual viewers].

Of course, if it isn't done well, it'll not only flop massively and expensively but it'll also further help to damage the reputation of fantasy on TV and film for years to come. No pressure!

[Ran]

since the actors will want wages on a level with those in England, which are presumably higher than in Northern Ireland.

The £20 million spent in Northern Ireland is going to be be overwhelmingly spent on N.I. crew and production services. That's all I'm really talking about. I thought I implicitly acknowledged that not all of the £30 million was being spent in N.I., but yes, I'll repeat that: At least £10 million are going to non-N.I. sources, such as non-N.I. cast and crew members. :)

ETA: Of course, the £20 million estimate of "economic impact" may include "indirect" impact, i.e., it's not actual production money that's being spent, but economic activity further down the chain of supply that the production money is creating. However, I'll just stick with my idea that £20m is the direct production spend. Easier that way, and doesn't hurt my head so much. ;)