Should Palestine unilaterally declare independence?

[Werthead]

In today's Independent, Johann Hari advocates that the Palestinian Authority should unilaterally declare independence for the West Bank and Gaza Strip from Israel, with respect to the 1967 borders. Hari's argument is that with the peace process stalled on the Israeli end over the issue of settlements - which should be a non-issue, given that they are already in breach of international law - a Palestinian declaration would drum up significant international support and put immense political pressure on Israel to offer up substantive concessions.

The article is heavily flawed (a total lack of any mention of the three wars Israel fought against Arab aggression is bemusing), but has some points to it. As he points out, this week Israel announced plans to build an additional 1,600 homes in the Occupied Territories in defiance of international condemnation and American requests for a freeze on settlement construction. Netanyahu has even said that if there was peace deal tomorrow, Israel would continue settlement construction. This indicates that Israel's interest in a proper, negotiated end to the conflict and a two-state solution is questionable, at best, and the notion arises that the matter should be removed from Israel's hands.

If Palestine were to declare independence, it would be doing so following the December 2009 UN Security Council resolution guaranteeing Palestinian sovereignty over the Occupied Territories (including East Jerusalem) and their natural resources, which was not vetoed by the United States. This gives the Palestinians a firm grounding for such a move (previous similar votes were taken in preperation for decolonisation of various states after WWII). They also have the recent declarations of independence from Kosovo and South Ossetia, neither of which is recognised by the United Nations but both nevertheless now exist as de facto independent nations (guaranteed by NATO and the EU on the one hand, and by Russia on the other). Assuming the countries who recognised Palestinian statehood following the 1988 declaration did so again, nations such as India, China, Russia and Indonesia would recognise Palestine sovereignty, along with over 100 other countries (or almost twice the number who recognise Kosovo).

Europe and the West would likely be divided over such a move. France has indicated it is prepared to consider recognition in such circumstances. We can take it as read that the USA and UK would not. With these in mind, UN recognition of a Palestinian state would probably not take place, with the USA likely to veto such a move (if he didn't, Obama might as well write out his 2012 concession letter right now). As pointed out earlier, however, UN recognition is not necessary in the face of de facto recognition by significant numbers of other countries.

If such a decleration was made, it might be little more than a hollow gesture, as 1988 was (although the PLO in 1988 did not formally control any territory, unlike the Palestinian Authority today, and did not have UN Security Council guarantees of sovereignty, like they do today). Israel would, after all, remain in control of the territories and practically little might change in the short-term. However, such a move of support for the Palestinians could be the impetus needed to restart substantive negotiations.

Thoughts? Should the Palestinians consider this, even if it was just a waste of time?

[Ser Reptitious]

Thoughts? Should the Palestinians consider this, even if it was just a waste of time?

Unless they can ascertain that some heavyweight countries such as Russia or China would actually recognize them, I think it might fly about as well as a lead balloon. But perhaps they should at least consider making loud public noises about seriously considering such a move? It might pressure the current Israeli government into getting a bit more serious about peace negotiations again (since such a declaration could create tension, instability and embarrassment) and slowing down (if unfortunately not stopping) the further expansion of the settlements.

On a side note, anyone care to place bets how long it will take for Samalander and Shryke&Pax to start sniping at each other in this thread? I'll be extremely optimistic and say we can make it to page 2 before it begins.

[Stalker]

a Palestinian declaration would drum up significant international support and put immense political pressure on Israel to offer up substantive concessions.

I see wishful thinking. I have no other explanation for why he would think that.

[Datepalm]

On a side note, anyone care to place bets how long it will take for Samalander and Shryke&Pax to start sniping at each other in this thread? I'll be extremely optimistic and say we can make it to page 2 before it begins.

Gosh darn it, i'm going back to the army on Sunday and will likely miss all the fun.

Personally, I think there isn't the political will in Fatah to take responsibility for such a move, or they would have done it already.

[Altherion]

They also have the recent declarations of independence from Kosovo and South Ossetia, neither of which is recognised by the United Nations but both nevertheless now exist as de facto independent nations (guaranteed by NATO and the EU on the one hand, and by Russia on the other).

I think your parenthetical is the key difference. The Palestinians could declare anything they want, but unlike Kosovo, South Ossetia, Abkhasia, etc., neither they nor their allies have the power to back it up. The latter two are only recognized by a handful of nations (Russia, Nicaragua and whoever else the Russians have managed to bribe into it), but their status is not up for any meaningful debate because the Russian army controls that territory. I don't think anyone sane still expects the Israelis to agree to 1967 borders (they've had nearly half a century do so...) and there is no greater power like NATO or Russia that is going to get involved and take it from them by force.

Besides, who exactly would be doing the declaring? Aren't the West Bank and Gaza ruled by different factions?

[Ser Reptitious]

Gosh darn it, i'm going back to the army on Sunday and will likely miss all the fun.

Well, there are still a couple of days left before then, so you still might get lucky! :)

[Datepalm]

Well, there are still a couple of days left before then, so you still might get lucky! :)

My saturday night is really Shrykes saturday morning. I find it hard to believe things will get really good by then.

[Eurytus]

I've always kind of thought the opposite. Given the population demographics of Jews and Palestinians in the combined territories assuming the Palestinians put aside differences to vote en mass for one Palestinian party, they would surely win a large number of seats in any parliament. Were they prevented from voting then that would be an easier thing to get UN support for than an independent country I would think.

[snake]

Thoughts? Should the Palestinians consider this, even if it was just a waste of time?

Does Israel lay claim to any part of the West Bank and Gaza or are they merely occupying "hostile" territories? If they do not, then declaring independence from Israel would be rather foolish since they are not part of Israel anyways. If, on the other hand, Israel does lay claim to some of the land the UN set aside for Palestine then I do not see the harm in them making such a declaration. If nothing else, it would give them some indication of what actual support they have in the international community for a Palestine as envisioned (very little I suspect).

I think Israel would basically shrug it off and none of the major players involved are going to pressure Israel to do anything with regards to the situation anyhow.

Seems odd that they would do so just the same, since they are supposedly already recognized as a nation by over 100 UN members. In order for that to be the case wouldn't they have already declared a state of Palestine?

[Stalker]

Seems odd that they would do so just the same, since they are supposedly already recognized as a nation by over 100 UN members. In order for that to be the case wouldn't they have already declared a state of Palestine?

The PNC already did it in '88, as referred to in the OP.

[Werthead]

Unless they can ascertain that some heavyweight countries such as Russia or China would actually recognize them, I think it might fly about as well as a lead balloon. But perhaps they should at least consider making loud public noises about seriously considering such a move? It might pressure the current Israeli government into getting a bit more serious about peace negotiations again (since such a declaration could create tension, instability and embarrassment) and slowing down (if unfortunately not stopping) the further expansion of the settlements.

Russia, India and China recognised the Palestinian entity founded in 1988, so I'd assume they'd recognise them again. Russia might also do it on the basis that it might back up their recognition of South Ossetia, although it might also put them in a bind over Kosovo (not that Russia has huge problems with presenting blatant hypocritical opinions to the world, but then they argue the West is doing the same thing over Kosovo/South Ossetia, so what the heck?).

Does Israel lay claim to any part of the West Bank and Gaza or are they merely occupying "hostile" territories? If they do not, then declaring independence from Israel would be rather foolish since they are not part of Israel anyways. If, on the other hand, Israel does lay claim to some of the land the UN set aside for Palestine then I do not see the harm in them making such a declaration. If nothing else, it would give them some indication of what actual support they have in the international community for a Palestine as envisioned (very little I suspect).

Israel is the occupying power of the West Bank and Gaza, but they have also effectively annexed the two territories. I also believe that Egypt and Jordan, the former controlling powers, have not disputed Israel's ownership of the two territories for some considerable time. The problem is exasperated by the settlements in the West Bank, by which Israel is effectively colonising the West Bank. Gaza could still be called an occupied territory, but the West Bank is a de facto annexed and conquered territory, which creates immense headaches for the Israelis. If they did formally declare the West Bank and all of its inhabitants as part of Israel, Fatah would become a powerful political party in Israel overnight (and having recognised Israel, abandoned violence as a means to an end and so forth, there would be no basis on which to ban Fatah as a party), so it will never happen. Yet Israel has now shown itself unwilling to stop the colonisation of the West Bank, leaving them in the position of basically treating its indiginous people like second-class non-citizens, which is having a big impact on Israel's image in the world at large.

As was discussed in the previous threads, Israel can either be a Jewish State or it can be a democratic state. It cannot be both if it retains control of Gaza and the West Bank indefinitely as the demographic shifts will see the Jewish population become the minority within a generation or two.

[Padraig]

Israel is the occupying power of the West Bank and Gaza, but they have also effectively annexed the two territories.

You could argue that they have effectively annexed the West Bank given the colonies but they have only officially annexed East Jerusalem. The rest is military occupied land, although some parts are administered by Palestinians.

[Ser Reptitious]

On a (slight) separate note, what exactly is Netanyahu hoping to achieve by so openly proclaiming the construction of a further 1,600 housing units in the West Bank? If he's simply trying to throw some red meat to his coalition partners, then why not choose a more inconspicuous time to make the announcement? To make it official while Joe Biden is visiting seems calculated to let the whole world know. To what end? Is Israel so confident now that it feels it doesn't even need the support of its most powerful ally anymore? In Canada, even the National Post (which is about as staunchly pro-Israel as they come) seems to condemn the move.

[TheKassi]

Declaring independence accomplishes nothing. Doing so and being recognized by super powers accomplishes nothing. Without the military backing of several first world countries willing to start world war three Palestine exists at the sufferance of Israel, and Israel doesn't seem keen on having a hotbed of terrorist and rocket attacks touching it's boarder.

[Brude]

As was discussed in the previous threads, Israel can either be a Jewish State or it can be a democratic state. It cannot be both if it retains control of Gaza and the West Bank indefinitely as the demographic shifts will see the Jewish population become the minority within a generation or two.

I'm Jewish, I agree with this completely. So do pretty much all of my Jewish friends. What a lot of non-Jews don't seem to realize is how popular that sentiment is in many quarters of the Jewish community.

I wonder if maybe a two-state solution won't be possible unless and until a strong Jewish U.S. President comes into office and really pushes for it. It might be that only a Jewish U.S. President would be immune to the political ramifications that could occur with getting very tough with Israel over this issue. You'd also need the right government in Israel at the same time, but it seems that every time an Israeli PM gets really close to doing these things, they either get assassinated or they have a sudden stroke and go into a permanent coma. (Call me paranoid, but I honestly don't think that's by happenstance. I do believe there are radical elements within the Israeli intelligence services that probably made both of these things happen for their own ends.)

That might be all I can say on this subject, it tends to depress me too much.

[Shryke]

Unless this somehow stops Israel from continuing to exercise essentially total control over Palestinian territory, I don't see the point.

Israel is gonna laugh in the face of the UN, as usual.

The US will stall anything because US politicians are either pro-Israel or scared shitless of being labeled "Holocaust Loving Terrorist Lovers".

It won't do shit. The Israeli government is simply not interested in anything that doesn't have to do with settling the shit out of the land and hoping the Palestinian problem just goes away.

On a (slight) separate note, what exactly is Netanyahu hoping to achieve by so openly proclaiming the construction of a further 1,600 housing units in the West Bank? If he's simply trying to throw some red meat to his coalition partners, then why not choose a more inconspicuous time to make the announcement? To make it official while Joe Biden is visiting seems calculated to let the whole world know. To what end? Is Israel so confident now that it feels it doesn't even need the support of its most powerful ally anymore? In Canada, even the National Post (which is about as staunchly pro-Israel as they come) seems to condemn the move.

The hilarious part is that Israel's response to the condemnation is not to actually do anything different, but rather to change how they announce this shit to avoid the PR blunders in the future: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/12/israel-moves-to-change-la_n_496425.html

[Altherion]

On a (slight) separate note, what exactly is Netanyahu hoping to achieve by so openly proclaiming the construction of a further 1,600 housing units in the West Bank?

The Israelis are no less adept at speaking the language of diplomatic games than the rest of the Middle East. The US pushed rather hard for the cessation of all construction in the disputed territories. Obama & Co. stood their ground and refused to budge (i.e. they wouldn't allow the standard exceptions). Although Netanyahu claims otherwise, it's not an accident that this announcement was made during Biden's visit -- this is his answer to that policy. All client states do this every once in a while; it amounts to saying "We are not ruled from Washington" (or Moscow or Beijing or various other places depending on the client state).

[Brude]

Clinton called Netyanahu and basically lambasted him for 43 minutes straight over the thing they did to Biden the other day.

[Lord Mord]

I don't know what could be achieved by such a move, but I'm not opposed to it in theory. If they can get some practical and peaceful results, I'm for it in a big way.

[Lark the Sisterman]

Wouldn't it be more prudent for the Palestinians to sort their own shit out before contemplating such a move?

I mean- what's the point of declaring a state when Fatah and Hamas aren't even talking to each other.

Unless we are talking about a three states solution, this move doesn't make much sense now.