Mafia 72.5 - Down In The Projects

[House Dondarrion]

It's hard to imagine they both are guilty. Therefore, only one is. That's simple.

It's still possible that they both are innocent, but I don't think so. If I am wrong, it's not a tragedy, since you all don't listen to me anyway.

I thought you trusted Carver yesterday. Why it's changed?

Nothing. I trust him because of his reveal/unreveal stunt. ;)

[House Targaryen]

It is day 4.

7 players remain: Bubbles, Detective Carver, Detective Greggs, Detective Hauk, Detective McNulty, Detective Moreland, Major Rawls.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

2 votes for Detective McNulty (Bubbles, Detective Hauk)

1 vote for Detective Carver (Detective McNulty)

4 players have not voted: Detective Carver, Detective Greggs, Detective Moreland, Major Rawls.

[House Dondarrion]

Before I leave I have a question:

What happened th all the Greggs hate? Looks like no one is caring for her right now.

Then I find McNulty's current behaviour a bit strange.

It's hard to imagine they both are guilty. Therefore, only one is. That's simple.

It's still possible that they both are innocent, but I don't think so. If I am wrong, it's not a tragedy, since you all don't listen to me anyway.

Well, we would listen to him once we get his innocent CF. Okay, that sounds aperhaps a bit harsh, but once we know McNulty is innocent his thoughts get a special weight - at least for me.

I currently get the impression that McNulty gave up once he realized that his lynch is inevitable. I think an innocent would try to make some cases or to post some more thoughts before he dies (don't look at me :P ), but McNulty apparently has decided that everything he says might backfire when we analyze possible partnerships.

For me it's a given that we will lynch McNulty and that he will show up evil. The only reason for me not to vote him right now (I guess you ask yoursekf why I'm not voting) is that I want to delay the day a bit, since I don#t have time now and today and it will get better during the week.

CU

[House Clegane]

Well, we would listen to him once we get his innocent CF.

It might be a bit late, since you will be in endgame tomorrow.

For me it's a given that we will lynch McNulty and that he will show up evil. The only reason for me not to vote him right now (I guess you ask yoursekf why I'm not voting) is that I want to delay the day a bit, since I don#t have time now and today and it will get better during the week.

Five hours left.

I'd prefer to read spoilers before going to bed, if anybody cares...

[House Stokeworth]

I just wanted to repost my earlier discussion re a McNulty/Greggs partnership.

I think that a McNulty/Greggs parnership looks like a possibility. She was his main day one focus yet he never placed a vote on her and ended the day without voting. If he knew he wouldn't be around why not leave his vote on her?

He did have his vote on Greggs. But he agreed to move to you with Carver at T30 even though you were on parr. He then took the opportunity to move to Avon even though Greggs was still on four at that point.

Greggs also placed a pretty weak vote on McNulty and McNulty's day one behavior screams distancing.

Don't forget that McNulty voted Carver. It was only after After Carver's reveal that he moved back to Gregg and the reveal wasn't something he could have foreseen. He hadn't left himself a wealth of options Greggs was his only believable choice (except maybe you).

It's definitely something to consider. What do you think?

As seen below, McNulty points out that I have made an error, which I've put in italics. He wasn't active until day two and when attributed to day one and a failure to vote it looks worse than it is.

But what it is still looks potentially bad from a distancing perspective particularly if the other factors in the above case are considered.

I also wanted to discuss this post from Gregg in which a few things stand out:

McNulty seems by far the scummiest of my top tier, though I'm also unsure about Bubbles (they are bickering an awful lot at the moment; I hesitate to say "distancing" but that could easily be the case; Bubbles's case on McNulty is comprehensive but weak, and could be a deliberate attempt to... what's the opposite of damning with faint praise? Redeeming with a crappy accusation?)

McNulty was the first to lead the charge on that Avon lynch, despite switching back and forth while the mob was gathering, and an awful lot of what he's done since has been defensive or wishy-washy. Many of his recent posts have been little more than bitching about dubious play or weird reveals, and then there's been all that back'n'forth with Bubs. I won't vote just yet as I want to see the Carver CF, but if nothing drastic happens before the morning then I'll almost certainly vote McNulty.

She says that my case is weak but then uses the facts that I have collected as her reasons for distrusting McNulty.

She then hints at me as a possible partner based on distancing which is similar to my mini case quoted above regarding her.

It looks like the only posts she's been looking at are those involving McNulty. She hasn't made a single comment about anyone else but me and those a re all in relation to my McNulty interactions.

If she hasn't looked elsewhere, how has she reached her conclusions?

She puts herself in a position where she can vote for him, but chooses to wait, which could easily be the sole reason for this post.

If McNulty tips FM, which I think is very likely then I still think his switch to Avon during the lynch will be one of our best clues to finding his partner who will most likely be Greggs or Moreland.

I need to look further at Moreland/McNulty interactions before placing a vote on Greggs if McNulty is FM, but I think that from his day TWO distancing, Greggs weak vote on McNulty early in the game and her weak attack on him now, which she hasn't followed up, she is a pretty good fit.

I'm not going to around for the lynch, I've only got about an hour now before the whole bed/work thing.

Unless anyone can give me a good reason to do otherwise, I'm going to withold my action tonight. I don't trust anybody over myself at this point and I'm letting everyone know so that if I'm dead tomorrow there's no confusion as to why.

[House Dayne]

Ugh. Life has been interfering with Mafia in a rather bigger way than I was expecting, and I won't be about for the end of day today. So, I'm just going to go with my earlier gut and vote McNulty, see how that comes out in the wash.

[House Stokeworth]

Before I leave I have a question:

What happened th all the Greggs hate? Looks like no one is caring for her right now.

Don't worry, she's not forgotten :P

[House Targaryen]

It is day 4.

7 players remain: Bubbles, Detective Carver, Detective Greggs, Detective Hauk, Detective McNulty, Detective Moreland, Major Rawls.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

3 votes for Detective McNulty (Bubbles, Detective Hauk, Detective Greggs)

1 vote for Detective Carver (Detective McNulty)

3 players have not voted: Detective Carver, Detective Moreland, Major Rawls.

[House Velaryon]

McNulty hasn't come up with convincing answers. I don't think anyone is going to care if I end it a few hours out.

McNulty

[House Velaryon]

eh - I screwed up the formatting and fixed it without thinking. In case anyone wants a pure, unedited vote -

McNulty

[House Targaryen]

It is day 4.

7 players remain: Bubbles, Detective Carver, Detective Greggs, Detective Hauk, Detective McNulty, Detective Moreland, Major Rawls.

4 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

4 votes for Detective McNulty (Bubbles, Detective Hauk, Detective Greggs, Major Rawls)

1 vote for Detective Carver (Detective McNulty)

2 players have not voted: Detective Carver, Detective Moreland.

Detective McNulty (TheMalcolm) is lynched.

-----

---- On Detail ----

The city was growing weary. They had lynched all the well known criminal faces in town. Avon was gone. Stringer was gone, D'Angelo. All gone, but still the killings continued.

Some of the citizens began to turn to those in a position of authority and query their innocence, and as the old saying goes, if you chop off the head... something will die. Or something. And so they lynched Detective McNulty.

His death brought about his Guilty verdict. The town had found one.

It is Night. PM me!

[House Targaryen]

A blood red dawn casts its feeble rays upon the derelict cars abandoned in the city.

As the nightly high brings with it the morning low, so does the ebb and flow of people on the street continue its daily cycle. As the fiends pour onto the streets, each more desperate than the one before, the hustlers and the dope lords make sure to keep as low as possible.

The uniformed heartbeat of the city treads its usual paths, busting heads and taking names.

There is no difference in seeing a body floating in the harbour nearby, throat slit ear to ear, a smile permanently etched to remind everyone who takes notice - this is the price you pay when you play the game.

Bubbles (May) was a player to the end. His Innocent demeanour belied his inner demons, which took him at last, silent into the night, on the high that would never end.

There is no difference this morning in Baltimore.

-----

It is day 5.

5 players remain: Detective Carver, Detective Greggs, Detective Hauk, Detective Moreland, Major Rawls.

3 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

5 players have not voted: Detective Carver, Detective Greggs, Detective Hauk, Detective Moreland, Major Rawls.

[House Velaryon]

Yes! We have breathing room now.

[House Velaryon]

I've been looking over the vote on Day 2 and McNulty was the first to suggest a compromise lynch (D'Angelo) which I picked up on. Moreland was the first to vote but McNulty was the second - just after he'd said he would vote Moreland.

As has been noted before, McNulty has had Moreland in his tiers but always found a reason to suspect someone before him. Moreland did suspect McNulty, but no one was really looking at him at the time*, so it could be seen as safe distancing. Moreland made sure we knew he'd vote McNulty, but didn't actually do it (eh, kind of a null tell actually).

It's possible McNulty was protecting Greggs as well. He could have gotten trapped into voting for him and then looked for reasons to move his vote, but if that's the case, then I think Moreland was the easiest choice. It was a serious game of chicken and would take nerves of steel to stay on Greggs as long as he did.

I'm leaning towards Moreland right now (surprise, right?). I'd have to go back and see if McNulty had significant ties to anyone else.

* correction - I think Greggs was looking at him.

[House Dondarrion]

Rawls!

RAWLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Could you please explain to me why I have cleared

1) Bubbles (innocent)

2) Daniels (innocent)

3) Hauk (innocent if I am evil)

4) Carver (innocent if I am evil)

why I did not pushed a Greggs lynch to save my head

and

why I continued to push McNulty (evil, remember?) as my prime suspect?

Your tunnelvision regarding me is extremely, well, lacking any logic. However, you most likely won't listen to me. But you surely will listen to yourself:

This is the most suspicious thing about McNulty IMO. I've found myself agreeing with his thinking a lot of times - or more accurately, not agreeing, questioning it in my head and then seeing his point. (For instance, Carver looking bad) However, no matter how he explains it, the swing doesn't look good. I'd say it makes him a good candidate for a Moreland partner. Of course he would axe Moreland if he was going down - and I really think it looked like he was. Now he's moved Moreland down in his tiers and haring off in another direction.

This is where he rearranges his tiers. He is still casting suspicion on Moreland elsewhere, but there 3 other lynches that he'd rather go for.

I disagree that Bubbles is very suspicious. I think you're stretching.

Looks like you've got the mind of a killer. :P

[House Dondarrion]

Things we have to do today:

1) voting pattern analysis

2) McNulty interaction

3) lynch Rawls

Seriously, Rawls is my major suspect right now by process of elimination.

Greggs looks better because McNulty voted for her and didn't give me the impression that he was forcing a Moreland lynch. As day 2 was a crucial day for the FM, I doubt they would risk to loose one of their number. They had options to lower the risk, but both (!) McNulty and Greggs didn't vote for me before the swing to Avon was started. No option for today.

I still trust Hauks's reveal, so he's no option for today.

Carver I have to check again. I just cannot see him and McNulty partnered. I'm saying this without having real proof (will start another reread tomorrow), but if they are a team they're very disorganized.

[House Connington]

Firstly, I'd like to take a moment to apologise to all the abuse I've given Team Gut in the past.

Secondly, yeah. Time for another bloody re-read, but with a guilty McNulty in mind throughout.

[House Dondarrion]

Well, and I'd like to thank Team Logic for making all this happen. :thumbsup:

I'm off to bed now. Don't rush a lynch while I'm away.

[House Velaryon]

Rawls!

RAWLS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

<snip>

Your tunnelvision regarding me is extremely, well, lacking any logic.

Who's left?

Hauks? I think he's VPI

Carver? His reveal was a desperate move and now that he can't be partnered with you or Greggs, it looks like an innocent who was very convinced he was right.

It's down to you and Greggs. Looking at how day 2 went down, you look like the more plausible partner. Greggs is a possibility, but because of McNulty's vote on him until very late in the game, I think it's you. If it's not, then I plan to go after Greggs tomorrow if I am in a position to.

It doesn't hurt that I haven't liked you for a while now. :P

Nearly everyone (I could go and find quotes if you like) expressed some suspicion of you early in Day 2, yet when it came time to lynch, there was a lot of resistance. Don't bother pointing out how I was part of the problem, I am well aware and very regretful.

So you cleared some people, so you voted McNulty - it comes down to actions, and your actions fit better with a McNulty partnership.

eta: I will say that I don't like how Carver has disappeared. I realize there were some internet issues, but it's still kind of crappy and we have nothing on him except day 1 & 2. Even Greggs has popped in more and offered thoughts. Even so, based on day 2, I can't see an evil putting himself out there like that with no apparent gain.

[House Dayne]

Tried to do a full reread, but I've been unable to follow the game properly for 2 days now and it's really hard to get back into the swing of it (plus the wine is starting to kick in and I'm glazing over). Mainly looking for possible McNulty partners, and I keep coming back to either Rawls or Moreland.

The first obvious scummy thing that stood out about Rawls was his rush to get D lynched after Carver's fake reveal as finder; I do wonder if that was just a way of getting rid of an obvious non-FM so that they could then take out the finder at night. He was then the one that suggested the Avon lynch as a compromise, which again would have done him no harm because as an FM he would know damn well that Avon was innocent.

Moreland, at first, in that lynch mob looked to be in danger - notice, however, that when the voting got really confused and everyone was switching back and forth, McNulty did put a vote on him that could easily have been decisive. OK, he switched it back straight away, but that looks like much too dangerous a play for a partnered FM, and that's the main thing that persuades me of Moreland's innocence.

Notice that when McNulty posted his tiers, he had Rawls right down low as well, though not quite at the bottom where it would have been too suspicious.

So, Rawls it is. And now to bed.