Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

House Targaryen

Mafia 72.5 - Down In The Projects

Recommended Posts

McNulty makes a case against Carver:

Carver:

Starts with four RP posts. Votes Omar jokingly.

#47: Asks D'angelo how he proposes to look for SK. It's reply to D'Angelo's vote on Greggs.

#55: Asks Avon similar question, replying to Avon's vote on Greggs.

#94,97: Keeps discussing SK's general behavior.

#107: Placeholder.

#110: Suspects D'Angelo and Avon. Indecisive on Daniels. Likes Rawls and perhaps Freamon. Wants low posters (me, Hauk, Bubbles, Stringer) to step up. Doesn't mention Greggs (or Moreland) at all.

#111: Votes D'Angelo.

#118: First mention of Greggs:

#120: Confirms readiness to switch to Greggs if needful.

#124: Agrees with Omar on improbability of Greggs' lynch.

#187: New day. Agrees that lynching SK can wait "until tomorrow or the next day". Votes Greggs because of her reaction to night kills and her disappearing (same arguments other players made earlier).

#204: Dislikes Greggs' post. Dismisses Bubbles' case on Moreland as bias.

#211,216: Keeps discussing the case and defending Moreland.

#222 and so on: 180 degrees turn around on SK. Wants his head only and refuses discussing anything else.

Resume: very few original opinions (one of the few is liking the person night killed). Parroting and seeping. Fits as Greggs' partner who decided to cut ties at some point but changed his mind later. Fits even better as Moreland's partner who panicked after Moreland appeared to be in real danger.

Carver.

The bolded part is interesting. If Carver was McNultys partner and he would flip guilty, Greggs and me were both linked to him. The vote itself could be distancing, as the likelyhood of a Carver lynch was rather low at this point.

The thing about Carver that I was thinking about is his finder reveal. What if there had been a real finder? What if he really tried to move the healer's attention away from Stringer and realized between revealing and the end of the day that his reveal wasn't a bright idea at all?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I made them without really thinking, as it was still in the transition between joke and serious phase, and then everyone pointed out how dumb they were. But, I still stand by the base assertion that finding the SK should not have been our main priority, it was just luck that we got him so quickly. I'd be up for lynching him tomorrow before he gets his next kill, but I'd rather a more useful lynch today that might shed more light on possible partnerships.

Rereading this morning; I initially had bad vibes about Carver, but on looking through his posts he's really been a one-trick pony who just wants to get rid of D'Angelo. At least he's consistent. I can't see much there that would support McNulty's case on him, but as I said, I'd also not want to lynch D until we had to.

Rawls and Daniels have been quiet. Daniels wouldn't be such a useful lynch as he's hardly said anything; Rawls has mostly come up with several wishy-washy speculations and some maths. I'd support a Rawls lynch if it came to it.

In fact, yeah, Rawls. I suspect him more than McNulty right now, and don't want to risk leaving my vote there in case I can't post more before the end of the day.

I think an FM would have kept his vote on his partner. Looks like she decided to switch her vote while she was writing her posts. Sounds genuine.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What if there had been a real finder? What if he really tried to move the healer's attention away from Stringer and realized between revealing and the end of the day that his reveal wasn't a bright idea at all?

This ... is an interesting thought. However I still don't think that an FM would risk this so early in the game for so little gain(impulsive or not). Bell was VPI, but he was also not vocal nor was he leading the group. A reveal would have been better the next day if he wanted to distract the heal. I could believe it of a symp more than an FM.

So what do you think the possibilities of a symp are? I can't rule it out, but it doesn't feel right to me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think an FM would have kept his vote on his partner. Looks like she decided to switch her vote while she was writing her posts. Sounds genuine.

Even if - as he said - he might not be around at the end of the day? That's kind of risky even if no one was looking at him at the time. I know Gregg's low-profile could be contrived and he had every intention of being around at the end of the day, but things happen. He had already established his distrust and backed it with a vote, so I would be a safe vote at that point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Crap, been far busier than i expected all day. 2 hours left? Finally got home, started cooking dinner when I realised I was close to the end of day AND a modkill.

Please don't do anything for, say, an hour and a bit? Til we have like, only, an hour left?

Catching up and re-reading now. :(

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The following chain of events make Carver and especially Greggs look better:

1. McNulty votes him

2. Carver reveals

3. McNulty unvotes him and immediatly votes for Greggs, bringing her at 3 votes

6 votes are needed for a conviction or to go to night.

3 votes for Detective Moreland (Bubbles, Lieutenant Daniels, Detective Hauk)

3 votes for Detective Greggs (Major Rawls, Avon Barksdale, Detective McNulty)

1 vote for D'Angelo Barksdale (Detective Carver)

1 vote for Major Rawls (Detective Greggs)

3 players have not voted: D'Angelo Barksdale, Detective Moreland, Stringer Bell.

IF McNulty wanted to distance from Carver, why did Carver reveal? The only kind of plan I can see is "I reveal, will get lynched tomorrow, and the innocent s will focus on Moreland and Greggs". However, innocents seldo do what the FM want them to do, so a plan like this is rather stupid.

This is btw what I meant with "if Carver and McNulty are partners, the FM team has been disorganized" in one of my further posts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1. McNulty votes him

2. Carver reveals

3. McNulty unvotes him and immediatly votes for Greggs, bringing her at 3 votes

Right, but Greggs was where his vote was earlier and he hadn't really expressed suspicion on anyone else at that point. So I don't see him placing his vote back on Greggs as a point in Greggs' favor. If anything, McNulty's early vote would be a point in favor of Greggs, but not this particular vote.

I do agree that it looks like Carver spoils McNulty's plans, so either not partnered, or as you said, playing very independent (unorganized) games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So what do you think the possibilities of a symp are? I can't rule it out, but it doesn't feel right to me.

The usual setup for a vanilla 13 player game would likely include a symp. If we can believe Hauk's claim, we have seen three innocent roles so far. Both vig and martyr are pretty neutral, but they can be of help when the roled player is near a lynch. The BP role is of course powerful, but can also be harmful.

We have four players that had no chance to claim a role:

Omar, Freamon, Avon and Daniels. I would be surprised if all of them were RI. If one of them had another powerrole - well, there might be a symp in this game then.

If there is a symp and he is still alive, it's probably not Greggs. Hauk's claim is also risky, as the FM might want to get rid of him. Leaves Carver or you.

ETA:

in fact it leaves only you as Carver wouldn't have claimed finder as a symp. <_<

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Little time left.

I don't want to lynch D'Angelo even if Carver is real finder.

I can switch to Moreland to get a lynch, but still prefer Greggs.

Would McNulty suggest to lynch his partner?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyway, I ruled out Moreland because of McNulty's votes in the big lynch mess, so it's down to Hauk, Carver or Rawls (Moreland may possibly have been a symp, but that doesn't matter right now). Hauk and Carver have been PI for quite some time now so I suspect my gut on Rawls may have been right, but I need a read back to check. Why DID Hauk get PI, anyway? :huh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apropos disorganized FM's:

Not sure.

In fact, now we might end lynching D'Angelo just as a compromise, because no other lynch is possible. It's 3-3, and nobody seems to want to switch.

The vote might be based on OMGUS, but it also contains a theory that is true. Smells a bit like framing an easy target*.

The second paragraph is a good question. To find out who killed who is one thing, to use this information is another. The further makes no sense without doing the latter.

Btw, after the finder reveal we should most definitely NOT LYNCH D'Angelo today. If Carver told us the truth (I reserve to stay sceptical), the lynch victim's CF gives him some more informations to work with. ANd as it has been said already, it also reduces the number of possible suspects.

* which also applies to most of those who are voting Greggs. I know this sounds mean, but I'd just lynch her to get her CF. Ifshe's evil, it's good. If she's innocent we could look at those who pushed the easy lynch.

Clever tactic, if we were both evil. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyway, I ruled out Moreland because of McNulty's votes in the big lynch mess, so it's down to Hauk, Carver or Rawls (Moreland may possibly have been a symp, but that doesn't matter right now). Hauk and Carver have been PI for quite some time now so I suspect my gut on Rawls may have been right, but I need a read back to check. Why DID Hauk get PI, anyway? :huh:

Hauk claimed BP at a point when it was not unlikely that he could get countered.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

in fact it leaves only you as Carver wouldn't have claimed finder as a symp. <_<

Um ... why not? He thought it would force a D lynch, if there was a finder, it had a good chance of flushing him out due to reactions if not a counter-claim (in fact, I thought Hauk might be a finder). He did unreveal after the fact, quietly as it was, and it partially derailed a Moreland lynch (you had a lot of suspicion on you). The downside is that he would attract a night-kill, but the unreveal caused him to garner a lot of suspicion, so not a good NK choice. Even if he had been night killed, it would have gained you a day - 2 actually since we had to deal with D. Good trade off for a symp, yes?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Um ... why not? He thought it would force a D lynch, if there was a finder, it had a good chance of flushing him out due to reactions if not a counter-claim (in fact, I thought Hauk might be a finder). He did unreveal after the fact, quietly as it was, and it partially derailed a Moreland lynch (you had a lot of suspicion on you). The downside is that he would attract a night-kill, but the unreveal caused him to garner a lot of suspicion, so not a good NK choice. Even if he had been night killed, it would have gained you a day - 2 actually since we had to deal with D. Good trade off for a symp, yes?

Ok, it works from your PoV, of course. Not from mine, though.

This here is the last I'm going to say about a possible McNulty-Moreland partnership:

Greggs and me were at 4 votes. Most (all?) Moreland voters were not willing to switch, and Greggs was online. If we both were evil, we had two options:

1) McNulty switches on my mob to distance himself

2) I vote for Greggs to get her lynched instead of me

Instead of this, we both decide to vote for Avon, a lynch that likely wouldn't go through. Either you think we're the most weird pair of FM ever, or have to admit that w're most likely NOT PARTNERED!!!!! :tantrum:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not ruling out weirdest pair of FM ever ;)

It is the only thing that makes sense from my POV. Voting analysis would work in your favor, extreme distancing, whatever. You cleared Greggs for not voting you and can use that argument in your favor as well by association. You were the one who actually started the Avon lynch. McNulty didn't vote for you until the very last second and tried to steer it away from you. Just because you say an FM would never do it doesn't mean it's true.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×