The Thread for the NBA

[add-on]

So we're here. Most of you don't care but some of you do. Seems perfect for this sort of setting. Let's do the thing where we predict stuff. I'll go team by team until I lose interest.

THE EAST (because, after this summer, why would we start elsewhere)

The Heat

What could any of us say that hasn't been said? Things look to be getting off to a slow start. People are getting hurt and that's slowing down the whole chemistry thing that a brand new team just thrown together sorta needs...bla bla bla. They'll win 65ish games and lose in the conference finals or the finals. If somebody like Nene doesn't somehow force a buyout to join a contender, they simply don't have the size to win it all. The Lakers will certainly beat them if the Celtics or Magic don't manage it before.

The only other thing I want to say about The Heat is that I still hate LeBron. Seems like every sportswriter has gone into semi-forgiveness mode. Not me. Fuck him and his Nike ad.

(ZYDRUNAS ILGAUSKUS WAS A MISTAKE!)

The Magic

My favorite team that isn't The Bulls mostly because their winning a championship would defy conventional wisdom and wouldn't that be great. We all know about Howard's stay at Dream Camp, and what that could mean, but there's more.

Both Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis had subpar seasons last year. Neither of them will be nearly as bad as they were last year. If Jameer can stay healthy, this team is scary. If Rashard Lewis can return to even 08-09 form they'll be much more than that. Injuries are unpredictable, but I expect Van Gundy's apparent willingness to use Lewis at the three and plug Gortat, Bass, or Anderson in at the four (all tasty options) to help Lewis a great deal. That way Lewis can utilize his post up game against smaller defenders while still apprising his long range assassin role.

If they can parlay their many trade assets into a more effective swingman than Carter (entirely possible) this team is facing the Lakers in the Finals.

Celtics

They do have another run in them. They'll coast through the regular season in their own special way and have everyone (including me) doubting them. That's Okay. They feel good about that. As long as they're healthy come playoff time, who cares. Their new depth at the five means they only need one O'Neal plus Perkins to be healthy to make it through the playoffs, but obviously, that only matters if Kevin Garnett is healthy for the Playoffs. It doesn't matter that Rondo keeps getting better and that he's pissed that he got sent packing from the Worlds. It doesn't matter that Ray Allen is gonna recover just fine from his late postseason lapse. It doesn't matter that Paul Pierce will never die. KG matters.

The Bulls

So guys, listen. So we're not gonna win a title. Dwyane Wade didn't come home. LeBron James didn't take his talents to the City of Big Shoulders. Chris Bosh isn't here either. Luol Deng is still grossly overpaid. Luol Deng is still clearly our best wing player. But hey! We finally have a low post scoring option! But hey! He's out. For a couple of months. At the least. Well.

I still think we're in a better position than any other 'young' team in the league because both of our best young players have already proven they can make big plays in big situations which is unjustly overlooked every time a shithead writer tells me to fear the fucking deer. Fuck that.

Which brings us to

the Bucks

Honestly, fuck Wisconsin. Terrible place, all of it. Also, Milwaukee. You're a suburb of my city, bitch. You're nothing. Rahm Emanuel's gonna be mayor here soon. Which can only mean (yeah) that we're about to annex your ass. You're nothing.

Roster = mostly good. Just a few questions. Bogut's health. Any sort of sophomore slump for Jennings. Salmons only playing well for a team after he's traded to them midseason. Magette being, well, an ass. Michael Redd, the albatross.

But then so the roster doesn't matter. Because this is the third year of Scott Skiles' Milwaukee adventure. Never ends well because the progression goes like this a little:

FIRST YEAR

TEAM: We've sucked for a while. Here's this new coach with stuff that he's saying.

SKILES: YELLING! DO IT MY WAY! I'M ANGRY BUT I STILL KNOW STUFF THAT'S VALUABLE TO YOU AND WHAT ELSE DO YOU HAVE TO LOSE YOU SUCK! MY WAY!

TEAM: Well, he's right. We do suck. Nothing else has worked. Still, I have reservations. I am an adult, after all. People shouldn't yell at me this way.

(Team loses for a while, then buys into the Skiles system out of desperation because their losing combined with Skiles' reassurances have convinced them that they do really suck. This collective agreement to do the same thing results in an uptick at the end of what would have been a disappointing season. Momentum.)

TEAM: Wow, that worked great at the end. Maybe next year we should do that the whole time.

SKILES: MORE YELLING TO REINFORCE THE STUFF I SAID BEFORE!

TEAM: This makes more sense now, but I still feel really bad on the inside.

SECOND YEAR

(Feeling really bad at the beginning because of the yelling instead of the rewarding pats on the head that should have followed their end of season success leads to slow start, but the team catches on quicker this time)

TEAM: Uh-oh. The losing is happening again. Hey remember last time when we did the things he said and it went well? We should do that again.

SKILES: YELLING! RED IN FACE!

TEAM: Yeah. Let's do that again.

(Things go well. Team threatens to make the second round or even does make the second round. Media spends off season on team's collective dick.)

THIRD YEAR

SKILES: STILL YELLING! THIS IS ALL I KNOW HOW TO DO! THIS IS WHO I AM!!!

TEAM: You know what guys, we're pretty good at doing basketball things. Everybody at espn.com says so. Maybe he shouldn't yell at us like this.

SKILES: YOU'LL SUCK AGAIN IF YOU DON'T DO THE THINGS I'M TELLING YOU TO DO! REALLY!

TEAM: Yeah, we are adults after all. We shouldn't have to endure all this yelling. Let's just do what we want.

(Team fails.)

THE END

Atlanta

I can't see this going well, but isn't Josh Smith great?

Philly

The unfloppable Evan Turner is looking more and more like a flop every day, Thaddeus Young is still only as good as he was two years ago, Andre Iguodala is a third option on a winning team, Elton Brand is certainly still broken and that's all there is to say about that.

Washington

I'm excited about this. Especially if they can get anything at all for Arenas. Anything at all. You gotta love Wall, Hinrich is a great glue guy, and I love their two young bigs (Blatche and McGee). DC rejoins the league's list of exciting young teams. Welcome.

New York

Just not going to be much better than they were last year. Amare's addition plus Lee's subtraction equals, what, three more wins? Five?

Leaving the Eastern Conference with this thought: It's very likely that both Detroit and Toronto will post worse records than Cleveland.

THE WEST

Lakers

Hands down favorites to win the title. Will probably start off slow due to injury, but when it comes to match ups in the Playoffs, there's no one that can stay with them until the Finals. And then I think their size wins out.

OKC

We've all been reading all about how they're ready to make the jump this year. I still think they're a year away from really competing with the Lakers.

Spurs

The West's only real hope against the Lakers. If Blair and Splitter can play well enough in the regular season to preserve Timmy's legs for the playoffs, and if Parker plays out of his mind for a new contract, I believe they've got a shot.

The Jazz

I'm really excited about the Jazz. I think Jefferson is going to have a crazy good year playing with Deron Williams. Plus, after seeing my team fleece their's in the offseason, guilt is forcing me to root for them.

The Rockets

No one but Commodore believes Yao Ming is going to play a full NBA season or even be healthy for a serious amount of the time. He's an extremely likable fella and a great basketball player. I wish it could happen. But I don't see it. Still, failing all else, they've got a shit ton of trade assets and no more T-Mac. So things could be worse.

Portland

Again. I just don't see Oden ever staying healthy for a full season. But even worse, this preseason seems to be showing that Roy and Miller still haven't found a way to coexist. That Miller signing was a worse reach than most of the garbage we saw this year. As long as those two are together, the Blazers aren't competing for a title.

So there are other good teams that I'm leaving out, and a bunch of bad ones, but it's definitely time for bed. We'll get to it I'm sure.

Big time predictions:

LA over SA in the Western Conf

Orlando over Miami in the East

LA over Orlando

MVP

Durant

ROY

Wall (Griffin misses time again)

Coach of the year

Sloan! Sloan! Sloan!

Biggest Surprise

Sacramento

Biggest Flop

Milwaukee (fuck em)

[Greywolf2375]

So, if I read you right, Milwaukee is coached by Brick Tamland?

Can't say I disagree with much - the one thing would be about Boston; I think they will come out hard for 10-15 games; see what they have in the tank and then go into coast mode, doing enough to win the Atlantic.

I do see the East coming down to Orlando & the C's. And yeah, if Howard learned and can apply, Lewis finds his sack and Nelson can play to his potential, that'll be a fun team to watch out for. Even though Boston is old, the Heat are the team that I think is one injury away from losing their shot - LBJ or Wade get an extended injury and that team has a very different face to it.

[Flying Halftrak]

Nice to see a prediction that does not involve the Jazz explicity mention winning less than 50 games. So many people are sleeping on us - it'll be their mistake.

As a Jazz fan, thank you for "fleecing" us. You took a lot of deadweight off our hands. Don't get me wrong, they're all very talented and I think they'll do very, very well for you, but we'd gone as far as we were going to go with them. NO ONE wanted Boozer to stay except for a few radio commentators, and the national media always overrated what Korver brought to the table. Brewer's a black and white kind of player. His strenths are very useful, but his limitations can be appalling.

That said, all of those players fill needs that you guys have so I absolutely think that the Bulls made the right decision picking them up. Good luck to you.

[Commodore]

The Rockets

No one but Commodore believes Yao Ming is going to play a full NBA season or even be healthy for a serious amount of the time. He's an extremely likable fella and a great basketball player. I wish it could happen. But I don't see it. Still, failing all else, they've got a shit ton of trade assets and no more T-Mac. So things could be worse.

Some team will under-perform this year (my prediction is the Suns, and Nash will get traded), and the Rockets have more assets than anyone else (expirings, vets, young talent, the Knicks next two draft picks).

Agree about Yao, but he was out for a year and is on a strict minute limitation, I think he has a good chance to be ready for the playoffs.

I notice you didn't mention the Mavs, they are always a factor.

[Old Nan]

Deeeeeeeeeeeetroit... Oh, sorry. The Pistons suck.

I guess I'll be rooting for San Antonio or Milwaukee. I can't possibly bring myself to support Boston or L.A. or those johnny-come-lately upstarts in Chicago, much less either team from Florida; Miami's going to be insufferable.

Am agreed that the Lakers have to be considered the favorites, though.

[Slurktan]

Well I'm actually excited for this season. I know the Raps in all likelihood are going to be junk, but they will be entertaining junk and that's more than I got the last few years. It's kind of interesting to read the American reporters's take on the Raps this year. It's fairly obvious that they haven't watched them in preseason by the stuff they say and they all say that the Raps will be dead last in the East. Doubtful.

I don't think they will make the playoffs but they won't be that far off. If they play a team that has size and plays defense they are going to lose, and likely lose badly (as shown by the healthy Chicago game and the Boston parts where Rivers didn't inexplicably try to run and gun). But against everyone else they can give a good showing, and if a team tries to actually outrun and the Raps, that team will get their asses kicked. Throughout this preseason whenever a team has tried to do that the Raps just kill them (whether it be the whole game like the Suns games or stretches like against Boston). I predict 35-38 wins for us. I'm curious to see if the Ewing theory applies.

As for the rest, Miami is going to win 56-59 games and will bow out in the second round to either Boston or Orlando. For you people who didn't watch Toronto play the last couple years it will be a treat for you to see just how much Bosh wilts when there is actual size going against him. That's of course if he doesn't get hurt. Wade is already hurt and will likely stay so the rest of the year, hammy's don't heal with anything other than rest and can get hurt again at the drop of a hat, so he isn't going to be Wade. LeBron is in FU mode which will be fun to watch but he has no shooters around him with Miller hurt so his drive and dish game will be much less effective than when he was in Cleveland.

I think it's going to be Lakers/Celts in the Finals again and if Perk is healthy then the C's will win.

[ztemhead]

Go Suns!

Okay I'm not really happy about the trades this offseason, but what are you gonna do? NY's loss in getting Amar'e should be Phoenix's win, but as yet it's still an x factor. I just hope they have a good home record and affordable ticket prices because I love going to the games.

I'm not surprised no one has picked them to win anything; at the beginning of last season the consensus was that they'd be on the bubble for a playoff berth, not finish second to the Lakers.

[AutumnEvenings]

I am very excited for this season!! FD and I have tickets for our first home game (Thurs, vs. Phoenix). I'm completely pissed off that I'll miss the first hour of our opener (Wed vs. Denver) due to plans I can't get out of. I watched all the Pre-Season games I could, and I know, it's only pre-season, but damn did I like what I was seeing!! Fesenko is finally, finally getting his sea legs. Big Al is fitting right into our system, even making extra passes. Raja Bell's attitude is fabulous, and I've been impressed with his defense. I'm really liking our 2nd-round pick, Evans. He's got a lot of athleticism and reminds me of Ronnie Brewer (only bigger). Less keen on Hayward, but he's a bit better than I hoped. Our new backup point is good too. I'll miss Memo (he's out till December) and AK needs a different haircut, but aside from that, I'm totally stoked.

I gave most of my run-down on the other thread. Our division (between us, Denver, Portland, and OCK) is going to be hard-fought and awesome. Fuck the Lakers, as always. Phoenix might be sad this year, but I wouldn't count them out. I think Dallas will be the best Texas team, and probably the only one in the playoffs, assuming Portland stays un-injured.

I'm excited about the East. I hate Orlando, but don't want to cheer for Miami. I think Boston will be my Eastern hope. :) I want Cleveland to not suck.

The Bulls <snip> We finally have a low post scoring option! But hey! He's out. For a couple of months. At the least.

:rofl: Could've told you that when you signed him. I'm so, so glad he's off our hands! Plus we got Jefferson. It's like removing a cancerous lung and replacing it with a super bionic one. Sorry, Chicago, but you should have looked at his attitude and number of games played, not just box-score for nationally televised games.

The Jazz

I'm really excited about the Jazz. I think Jefferson is going to have a crazy good year playing with Deron Williams. Plus, after seeing my team fleece their's in the offseason, guilt is forcing me to root for them.

Except, see, we didn't want Boozer. And Korver...ok, he can shoot (sometimes) but he can't pass, dribble, defend, or half the time even get open. The one I'll miss most is Brewer, but he was already gone before the season ended. :( I wanted us to resign him, but when we went for Bell, I knew it was a lost hope. But yes, be excited about us!!

Coach of the year

Sloan! Sloan! Sloan!

It would be about time.

NO ONE wanted Boozer to stay except for a few radio commentators, and the national media always overrated what Korver brought to the table.

Exactly. Are you from Utah? If so, don't you just want to punch "NotRod" in the face? I can't even listen to the radiocasts anymore. My cat could do a better job of calling than that jackass.

Some team will under-perform this year (my prediction is the Suns, and Nash will get traded

You think? I mean, I agree with the Suns underperforming, but you think Nash will get traded? What else does Phoenix even have??? And I can't see him pushing for that. I guess I've just assumed he'll retire from the Suns. What makes you think he'll be traded? That would honestly make me kinda sad. (And I haven't liked Phoenix since they traded for Shaq.)

[ztemhead]

You think? I mean, I agree with the Suns underperforming, but you think Nash will get traded? What else does Phoenix even have??? And I can't see him pushing for that. I guess I've just assumed he'll retire from the Suns. What makes you think he'll be traded? That would honestly make me kinda sad. (And I haven't liked Phoenix since they traded for Shaq.)

I believe Nash owns a place in New York. Maybe he would go to the Knicks, though he's damn near beloved in Phoenix, so I don't know if they could offer enough that the Suns would let him go.

Thinking back, and I've decided Sarver is a bit of a douche for letting Steve Kerr go/ making such an insulting offer that he had no choice but to leave. I'm also a bit sad that Dan Majerle didn't get the head coaching job elsewhere like he wanted to.

[Rhom]

Some team will under-perform this year (my prediction is the Suns, and Nash will get traded), and the Rockets have more assets than anyone else (expirings, vets, young talent, the Knicks next two draft picks).

Agree about Yao, but he was out for a year and is on a strict minute limitation, I think he has a good chance to be ready for the playoffs.

I notice you didn't mention the Mavs, they are always a factor.

I saw that Patrick Patterson is listed as inactive for the opener. Any word on why he's not on the roster? I thought he was having a solid preseason.

[grozeng]

If anyone is interested we started a Fantasy Basketball league in forum games. We will draft some time next week. So if anyone wants to join it is open (the link is in the thread).

Since this is the basketball thread, I may actually watch some Knicks games this year. I have not in a while.

[Andriy Czarchenko]

I saw that Patrick Patterson is listed as inactive for the opener. Any word on why he's not on the roster? I thought he was having a solid preseason.

They´re just too deep. They have Yao, Miller, Scola, Hill, Hayes and Jeffries for 4/5. Who would you leave out for Patterson atm?

[Rhom]

They´re just too deep. They have Yao, Miller, Scola, Hill, Hayes and Jeffries for 4/5. Who would you leave out for Patterson atm?

Sadly... Hayes probably. Even though he's another of my favorites. At least Patterson doesn't shoot free throws

(Honestly, I don't remember Chuck shooting like that at Kentucky.)

I think in a pinch, Patrick could probably play the 3. That's what he was doing a lot last year and actually has decent range for a big guy. But the guy was a lottery pick... I guess I don't understand what Houston was doing by taking him if they had no intention of even putting him on the roster unless he (or someone else) is trade bait.

[Andriy Czarchenko]

Sadly... Hayes probably. Even though he's another of my favorites. At least Patterson doesn't shoot free throws

(Honestly, I don't remember Chuck shooting like that at Kentucky.)

I think in a pinch, Patrick could probably play the 3. That's what he was doing a lot last year and actually has decent range for a big guy. But the guy was a lottery pick... I guess I don't understand what Houston was doing by taking him if they had no intention of even putting him on the roster unless he (or someone else) is trade bait.

Jeffries is the trade bait. You also have to remember Yao only plays 24 minutes max and no back-to-backs. They need back-up 5s way more than 4s. Patterson can´t play 5 like Hayes or even Jeffries in a pinch.

For being lottery pick... 14th is usually a crap shoot anyway so Houston just took the best available guy.

[Flying Halftrak]

Exactly. Are you from Utah? If so, don't you just want to punch "NotRod" in the face? I can't even listen to the radiocasts anymore. My cat could do a better job of calling than that jackass.

Yep. I too have tickets to the Suns game on Thursday. Very stoked :)

Locke was SO much better before he got hired to be the radio voice of the Jazz. He's turned into a complete corporate shill, repeating the party line about EVERYTHING.

Of course, if you tell him so, he'll just start screaming, "you're asinine! you're asinine! that's an asinine question! why are jazz fans so asinine!" over and over and over.

Ugh.

On the flip side, at least Matt Harpring's a full-time commentator now, eh?

[Commodore]

Portland seems pretty weak at the PG position if someone gets hurt, but I guess they think some another guard can fill that role if needed.

Losing Amare is going to really hurt Phoenix, who is your scorer on that team now? Hedo? Channing Frye? J-Rich? I think there is a good chance they have a down year. With Nash at the end of his career he may want to go to a contender, and Phoenix may want to grab one of these up and coming PGs (there's a bunch of them).

The Jazz are intriguing to me, will be interesting to see what Al Jefferson can do now that he is finally with good players and a competent organization.

[add-on]

Fun game to start the year off. It's not surprising that the Heat struggled to start the game given their injury prone preseason. I think the next game between these two in a couple of weeks might be a better barometer of things to come. Will say that at no point during the Heat's comeback did I feel like they'd pull it off, not even when the lead was cut to three.

I notice you didn't mention the Mavs, they are always a factor.

Yeahhhhh, mostly because I was pretty bored and tired by the time I got to them. I don't think they will be a factor. With that roster, they ought to, but they just won't. The roster's just tooo hodgepodge and Jason Kidd is just too old to make it all stick together. I'm sure they'll win 50 but what else is new.

Also, Dirk Nowitzki makes it really hard to coach adolescent white kids. They see him do his 'well i'll just stand at the elbow and shoot fade aways the whole game and that will go just absolutely fantastically great for me' and they feel like they can do it, too. Unaware as they are that he's a once in a generation talent, they're not terribly easy to convince that they need to get to the rim. Dirk Nowitzki is an awful pain in my ass.

:rofl: Could've told you that when you signed him. I'm so, so glad he's off our hands! Plus we got Jefferson. It's like removing a cancerous lung and replacing it with a super bionic one. Sorry, Chicago, but you should have looked at his attitude and number of games played, not just box-score for nationally televised games.

I mean, it's not like I was unaware of his downside. He was still the best option available for a team that was desperately in need of a low post threat.

Except, see, we didn't want Boozer. And Korver...ok, he can shoot (sometimes) but he can't pass, dribble, defend, or half the time even get open. The one I'll miss most is Brewer, but he was already gone before the season ended. :( I wanted us to resign him, but when we went for Bell, I knew it was a lost hope. But yes, be excited about us!!

Well, this is the last time I try to be nice to someone from Utah. After Sara from Provo, I really should have learned my lesson.

[Slurktan]

Well I didn't watch the other two but the Heat game was interesting. Interesting in that the Heat looked the best only when it was LeBron and 4 stiffs, ie the Cavs. Now that is likely due to the 3 not playing much together yet but interesting nonetheless. That game quickly put to rest the "It is Dwayne Wade's team, not LeBron's" statements though, as it most certainly is LeBron's team.

[ztemhead]

Phoenix really looked like they missed Amare. They are still a solid team, but Nash and Hill are a year older, and Hedo will never bring what Amare did to the table.

I disagree with this because at a cursory glance, it looks like they needed what they always have needed, more defense. They were out rebounded 48 to 30 last night, and Amar'e was never the world's greatest rebounder.

We'll wait and see if Nash can get the timing right with the rest of the team. The worst thing that could happen is if he never gets confidence in them and tries to become a scorer.

[Commodore]

9 TOs for Nash and the Suns couldn't rebound, yikes

Houston looked good, Yao makes the defense so much better, Pau was a monster when Yao went out. K-Mart and Brooks are going to tear it up this season.