The Thread for the NBA

[Commodore]

if you weren't following the MIT Sloan Sports Conference this weekend, you missed out. Lots of big names there discussing the state of sports and analytics in particular. At some point they will post streaming video of the panels.

http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/25914/mark-cuban-hopes-to-lose-and-lose-badly-someday

Towards the close of yesterday's basketball analytics panel, Mark Cuban and Kevin Pritchard showed their cards in terms of fast-tracking a franchise rebuilding project.

Cuban confessed that once Dirk Nowitzki retires he expects the Mavericks to lose, and, if he gets his way, they'll lose badly. Kevin Pritchard seemed to agree and introduced a new term into our lexicons: "the mediocrity treadmill."

There is no championship future for a middling team that is stuck in the embattled space between those who struggle to make the playoffs and those that struggle and miss. Cuban has no desire for the Mavericks to be such a team. Charlotte Bobcats owner Michael Jordan recently defended trading Gerald Wallace to the Portland Trailblazers by saying, "We don't want to be the seventh or eighth seed." The Bobcats have been, at best, mediocre, and so perhaps we can interpret his statement as one owner casting his philosophical lot with Cuban and Pritchard.

But before we go and make assumptions, the first question that deserves an answer is whether the mediocrity treadmill actually exists?

Once there is a definitive answer to this question, the conversation shifts to the relative merits of mediocrity and, if one so desires, how to best bypass mediocrity and move into an era of winning. If you're stuck on the mediocrity treadmill, how do you get off? What do the numbers suggest is an appropriate amount of cap clearing? What balance should one seek between acquiring veteran free agents and acquiring draft picks through a combination of losing and house cleaning?

The NBA heavily rewards bad teams, to the point that tanking is often a preferable strategy.

The only time it's ok to be a middling team is if you have young talent on good contracts with upside (see OKC). Teams like Portland (and Dallas even if they don't know it) are saddled with maxed out payrolls with no chance at a title.

[Jaime L]

The NBA heavily rewards bad teams, to the point that tanking is often a preferable strategy.

The only time it's ok to be a middling team is if you have young talent on good contracts with upside (see OKC). Teams like Portland (and Dallas even if they don't know it) are saddled with maxed out payrolls with no chance at a title.

The mediocrity treadmill definitely exists in the NBA. I've seen a bunch of teams ride it including my own Wizards under Arenas. They were good enough to be anywhere between the 4th and 6th seed in the weaker Eastern Conference but there's no way they were ever winning a title. Can't even just hope on a young team growing together or plugging a hole with a decent free agent or the right trade.

You need an A list superstar (i.e.: Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Howard, Durant) to realistically have a chance at the title and unless you're the Lakers or Heat, you're not getting one unless you draft him. Even getting the #1 pick is no guarantee, really depends on what year you have that pick. But you still have to try. 17 wins gives you a shot at a savior, 30-50 really doesn't. The only time being in the latter range is preferable is if you have that savior already on your roster, like OKC. So as painful as this season has been for the Cavs, and I can't even imagine the indignity of this season for fans who grew accustomed to 60 win seasons, but I guess the one silver lining is they're bottoming out instead of treading water at 30 wins.

[aimlessgun]

The mediocrity treadmill is an interesting comparison to the NFL.

In the NFL, those 'mediocre' teams actually do have a chance to win a super bowl, via luck and getting hot at the right time. Hell, the Arizona friggin' Cardinals were like 1 play from winning a SB, after a 9-7 season. So most of the NFL fanbases can hope for playoff success. Has a 7-8 seed every won an NBA title?

[Andriy Czarchenko]

Has a 7-8 seed every won an NBA title?

Nope. The Rockets were 6th seed in 95 and are IIRC the only team to win with no HCA on any round. Anyway, in basketball a 7 game series is pretty much always won by the better team. Any lower seed winning the championship would pretty much be a result of injuries or trades mid-season artificially lowering a good team´s seed.

[L’Age d’or]

To have a good chance of winning the title in the NBA you have to get the HCA and that means to perform impressively throughout a stretch of 82 games and bring on your A+ game come playoff time. This much intensity requires amazing management,coaching + adequate size and depth, a clutch star and a solid supporting cast. Considering the requirements to become a contender in the NBA, its natural to have powerhouses and scrubs.

[aeu]

Rose is good but not the MVP.

He has to be the frontrunner at this point, no? Maybe I'm being emotional here and putting too much stock in what happenned in the last 10 days, but Rose is definitely ahead of LeBron IMO (even though LeBron clearly has the better stats.)

I can't really think of anyone else sneaking in. In terms of pure value to their team, a number of guys would be in the discussion (Howard, Nowitzki, Paul) though I don't think any of them has any momentum in teh MVP debate.

[Relic]

He has to be the frontrunner at this point, no? Maybe I'm being emotional here and putting too much stock in what happenned in the last 10 days, but Rose is definitely ahead of LeBron IMO (even though LeBron clearly has the better stats.)

I can't really think of anyone else sneaking in. In terms of pure value to their team, a number of guys would be in the discussion (Howard, Nowitzki, Paul) though I don't think any of them has any momentum in teh MVP debate.

Howard deserves serious consideration as well.

[aimlessgun]

Grizzlies are an interesting team to talk about the mediocrity treadmill with.

They're playing well, they look dangerous, and they probably overpaid a couple guys and may or may not improve a whole lot from existing guys developing. I don't really think they can win a title. But it's hard to say they're doing it wrong.

ETA: Mmm Grizz are younger than I thought they were, but I guess I just don't have a lot of faith in those players getting that much better :D

[aimlessgun]

If you've watched the games since the All Star Break though, they have not been playing well.

Lakers: gave the game away

Nuggets(W): got lucky

Atlanta: got utterly crushed

Rockets: got crushed even worse

Sactown(W): got played tough by the Kings

Charlotte(W): Looked OK in the 2nd half, first half was some of the worst basketball I've ever seen.

Orlanda (W): Could be worse, but we got outrebounded by an Orlando team without Dwight (who gets like 40% of their rebounds on the season).

That being said I think they'll get better. Really as long as people who should be able to hit 3's actually...hit 3's, then the Blazers are very dangerous.

[aeu]

Howard deserves serious consideration as well.

Definitely. Orlando never quite got on track though. Perception of Orlando will probably hurt his chances.

This is on odd year for the MVP race. I didn't look this up, but sitting here I can't remember a case in the last 20 years or so in which the MVP didn't come from one of the very, very top teams in the NBA. Usually the one with the best record, or at worst, one of the top 2-3 teams recordwise and generally considered to be in the very top tier of teams.

This year, the very top teams (Boston, San Antonio and Lakers) don't seem to have a good MVP candidate. I would put Chicago, Dallas and Miami slightly below the first three (and Orlando, OKC even lower). If Rose or Lebron wins, they might do so with a team that ends up with the 6th best record in the NBA and goes out in the 2nd round of playoffs.

[Relic]

Definitely. Orlando never quite got on track though. Perception of Orlando will probably hurt his chances.

That's a shame. Can you think of any one team that would suck as much as Orlando would if you removed their star player? Hornets maybe...

[Commodore]

First video from the Sloan Sports Conference is up, Bill Simmons, Mark Cuban and others discussing the gameday experience and how HD tvs are making it preferable to just stay home

[aimlessgun]

Blazers put together a great team effort @ Miami and make the Heat cry again. A very nice win for Portland. They led most of the game to see Miami tie it up in the 4th. Portland then dominated down the stretch. Gerald Wallace had 22 off the bench. Portland currently brings two all-star types off the bench in Wallace and Roy and starts Aldridge who is one of the best non-All Stars in ages. Portland is up to 37-27.

:commie:

My reward for saying the Blazers haven't been playing well recently.

[Maithanet]

Lakers-Heat tonight. It's not the finals pre-match the sportswriters loved to talk about, but it is nonetheless a compelling game. The only Heat win against the Bulls/Celtics/Mavs/Spurs/Lakers came at Staples Center on Christmas. A lot has changed since then.

I don't watch a lot of ESPN anymore, so I'm not as tired of the Heat mediagasm as I could be. However, I think this team is doing only slightly worse than I expected. I thought they would be similar to last year's Cavs, who were great at finishing poor and average teams, but struggled against the big boys, and will struggle in the playoffs. The Heat aren't as good as I expected against average competition, but otherwise it's mostly the same.

I am a big underdog person. I hate teams that always win, I root against dynasties on principle and my list of least favorite teams in most sports is strongly correlated to whoever has the most championships. And frankly, I have no problem rooting for the Heat. Because they are so flawed, I can't help but consider them the underdog. If they win, it will almost be a miracle. Big Z is your center, and you expect to win a championship? Good lord. So, I'm gonna keep right on rooting for the Heat. Until they lose to the Bulls in the second round of the playoffs.

[Commodore]

WojYahooNBA

Heat officlals are throwing everyone out of lower bowl now. They haven't tossed Kobe yet.

WojYahooNBA

Kobe's been going for over an hour now on AA Arena floor, covering every spot on the floor with jumpers. He's out beyond 3-point line now.

WojYahooNBA

Kobe has them feeding him ball off curls, in post and back to the deep corner. They keep looking at each other, as if to say: He won't leave

WojYahooNBA

Arena security guy on Kobe: "I've been here 8 years and never seen this before."

WojYahooNBA

Yes, Kobe has a soaked t-shirt shooting his way through a workout in American Airlines Arena right now. Miami ballboys shagging shots

When the Heat lose, they cry in the locker room.

[Maithanet]

When the Heat lose, they cry in the locker room.

There's lots of talk about Kobe and his after-game shootaround. But it sorta feels like he is learning the wrong lesson from this loss. The problem wasn't that Kobe missed a long jumper he should have made. The problem was that he was taking way too many long jumpers. Against the Heat, Kobe shouldn't have a lot of points. Wade is the best defender on the team, and the Heat have glaring weaknesses defensively elsewhere. It should be Bynum, Odom, and Gasol all night. But instead, Kobe is determined to make "that shot". He is amazing at what he does, but frankly, that wasn't what was needed to win the game.

[Sir Thursday]

There's a really good write up of the NBA's excursion to London here. Captures the mood perfectly, although be warned it's quite long.

ST