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The Rhaegar + Lyanna = Jon thread, Part IX


Lady Blackfish

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No, Woodbyrne, it's you that doesn't seem to get it. Martin has let us know, approximately, when Jon is born, so we know when, approximately, he is conceived. Jon can't be a child born of Ned and Ashara conceived either at the Harrenhal tourney, OR at anytime before the rebellion. Jon is conceived some three to four months into the rebellion. It's simple math. Start with Martin's statement that Jon is born "eight to nine" months prior to Daenerys. Follow this with knowing she is born "nine moons" after her mother's flight from King's Landing - shortly before the sack. This puts Jon's conception three to four months into a rebellion that lasts about a year, not before the rebellion starts. As I laid out in the post in response to the Lady of the Rock, this doesn't eliminate N+A=J, it just means we have to explain how a well known loyalist and one of the generals in charge of the rebellion get together without anyone noticing they do. Not impossible, but unlikely. We need lots more information for this to work.

The rebellion lasted approx. 1 year according to GRRM. And most people say it began either with the death of Ned's brother and father or when John Arryn raised his banners against the Mad King. Either way, Dany was born 9 months after her mother fled from King's Landing, also 9 months after the death of Rhaegar (according to GRRM), which all makes sense. So that is 9 months out of a 1-year war leaving the first three months open (give or take). So if Jon is born approx 8-9 months before Dany, he had to have been conceived before the rebellion. Two people born approx 8-9 months apart is 16-18 months of "cooking" in the womb. I have 3 kids and understand human biology. So you were saying? Who "doesn't get it?" I am glad people like you exist with your snotty comments. Makes me feel better to say... :owned:

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You're confused, Woodbyrne. The war ended with the death of Aerys and Robert's rise to power, which is to say, shortly after the sack of King's Landing. By the time that Daenerys was born, the war had been over for months. So Jon wasn't born three months into the war, he was conceived three months into the war.

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You're confused, Woodbyrne. The war ended with the death of Aerys and Robert's rise to power, which is to say, shortly after the sack of King's Landing. By the time that Daenerys was born, the war had been over for months. So Jon wasn't born three months into the war, he was conceived three months into the war.

Correct, and by that time Ned was already married to Catelyn.

GH

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Two people born approx 8-9 months apart is 16-18 months of "cooking" in the womb. I have 3 kids and understand human biology.

Well I don't have three kids, but I think I understand human biology (and indeed arithmetic) enough to know that if two people are born approx 8-9 months apart then those two people were conceived approx 8-9 months apart. These buns were cooked in different ovens and the cooking times overlapped by a month or so. If Dany was conceived very close to the end of the war, Jon must have been conceived a few months into it.

It's certainly possible to argue that in the early stages of the war it probably wasn't clear that this was a genuine threat to the existence of the Targaryen dynasty, as opposed to a run-of-the-mill rebellion that would be put down sooner or later with most of the participants eventually allowed back into the king's peace, and that allegiances and commitments and knowledge of what had happened so far would be uncertain enough to allow Ned and Ashara to meet and have an affair -- and indeed that not all members of a given House would feel the same way about their loyalties, so Ashara might have done as Jayne Westerling did and been personally committed to her Stark regardless of what the rest of the Daynes felt. But that's a separate question to the dating of events.

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You're confused, Woodbyrne. The war ended with the death of Aerys and Robert's rise to power, which is to say, shortly after the sack of King's Landing. By the time that Daenerys was born, the war had been over for months. So Jon wasn't born three months into the war, he was conceived three months into the war.

I think that is the problem then. We don't know what is considered the official end of the war. I am going off this quote from this very site...."All that remained to close the war was to take Dragonstone, which harbored Aerys’s queen and her son. However, Queen Rhaella died giving birth to Daenerys during a terrible storm almost precisely nine months after the death of Rhaegar and the Sack of King’s Landing." So to me, in order to close the war, Dragonstone had to be taken since it still had Targaryens in it. I figured when Stannis shows up and takes it is the end of the war and the approx. 1-year rebellion. Do we know for sure the end of the war was the sack of Kings Landing or the seige of Dragonstone? That would be the answer we all need.

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Do we know for sure the end of the war was the sack of Kings Landing or the seige of Dragonstone?

Let me put this another way. The siege of Storm's End was lifted by Ned Stark shortly after the sack of King's Landing. We know that the siege lasted approximately a year, and that prior to the siege Mace Tyrell had fought a battle against Robert's forces at Ashford and achieved an indecisive victory. So we know that when Daenerys was conceived (which was shortly before the sack of King's Landing), the rebellion had been going on for at least twelve months. When Jon was conceived, Storm's End had already fallen under siege; and Robert had already called the banners and was fighting against Targaryen loyalists in pitched battles.

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Well I don't have three kids, but I think I understand human biology (and indeed arithmetic) enough to know that if two people are born approx 8-9 months apart then those two people were conceived approx 8-9 months apart. These buns were cooked in different ovens and the cooking times overlapped by a month or so. If Dany was conceived very close to the end of the war, Jon must have been conceived a few months into it.

It's certainly possible to argue that in the early stages of the war it probably wasn't clear that this was a genuine threat to the existence of the Targaryen dynasty, as opposed to a run-of-the-mill rebellion that would be put down sooner or later with most of the participants eventually allowed back into the king's peace, and that allegiances and commitments and knowledge of what had happened so far would be uncertain enough to allow Ned and Ashara to meet and have an affair -- and indeed that not all members of a given House would feel the same way about their loyalties, so Ashara might have done as Jayne Westerling did and been personally committed to her Stark regardless of what the rest of the Daynes felt. But that's a separate question to the dating of events.

Something is just not adding up then. If Jon is appox. 9 months older than Dany that means she was born approx. 9 months after he was born. I am not trying to be a wise guy here. So if this is true, Jon was conceived approx 18 months before Dany was born. A full 1.5 years (give or take a month). So even if the war ended with the sack of Kings Landing, it took another 6 months (give or take) for Stannis to approach Dragonstone?

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...it took another 6 months (give or take) for Stannis to approach Dragonstone?

It took nine months. I believe that the first Daenerys chapter says that explicitly. Presumably they thought that Dragonstone wasn't as big of an issue as consolidating the regime, and spent the time smoothing things over in Dorne, arranging Robert's marriage to Cersei, and so forth.

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It took nine months. I believe that the first Daenerys chapter says that explicitly. Presumably they thought that Dragonstone wasn't as big of an issue as consolidating the regime, and spent the time smoothing things over in Dorne, arranging Robert's marriage to Cersei, and so forth.

Well now I am totally confused. Bottom line, we need an OFFICIAL timeline in ADWD. Not going to happen but we should have one. GRRM is an amazing writer but I think he even admits he is not very good with timelines. And that is causing a lot of confusion. I think I am done talking about this particular thread since we are all really in the dark until we hear it from GRRM himself.

I will stick to my theory that Jon is the son of Ned and Ashara but I have no proof of it anymore. Nor do I have the desire to debate it since there is a 99.99% chance we are all wrong anyway. I am owned. :bowdown:

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Well now I am totally confused. Bottom line, we need an OFFICIAL timeline in ADWD. Not going to happen but we should have one. GRRM is an amazing writer but I think he even admits he is not very good with timelines. And that is causing a lot of confusion. I think I am done talking about this particular thread since we are all really in the dark until we hear it from GRRM himself.

What's confusing about the timeline? It might not seem plausible to you, but the timeline on these two events (Jon's conception and Daenerys's conception) is very clear.

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It took nine months. I believe that the first Daenerys chapter says that explicitly. Presumably they thought that Dragonstone wasn't as big of an issue as consolidating the regime, and spent the time smoothing things over in Dorne, arranging Robert's marriage to Cersei, and so forth.

I just checked that, and yes, that's what it says (well, "nine moons"). It also mentions that the terrible storm raging at the time smashed the Targaryen fleet at anchor, and that when they fled to Braavos it was "just before the Usurper’s brother set sail with his new-built fleet". So it took time for Robert to build up enough naval strength to challenge at sea, perhaps a year. If that's defined as the end of the war then the time from Jon Arryn raising his banners to the fall of King's Landing must have been about five minutes.

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What's confusing about the timeline? It might not seem plausible to you, but the timeline on these two events (Jon's conception and Daenerys's conception) is very clear.

How can the seige of Storms End take approx 1-year if the entire war took approx 1-year? And the seige took place after the war started and involved a lot of key players. Give or take a month, that still does not make too much sense to me. Either way. See you on other forums.

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How can the seige of Storms End take approx 1-year if the entire war took approx 1-year? And the seige took place after the war started and involved a lot of key players. Give or take a month, that still does not make too much sense to me. Either way. See you on other forums.

I think most people considered that the war had ended when KL and the Iron Throne was taken. Dragonstone would be considered post-war cleanup.

For WWII, the war was considered over when Japan officially surrendered. But that doesn't mean that there wasn't continued Japanese resistance in certain areas.

GH

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How can the seige of Storms End take approx 1-year if the entire war took approx 1-year? And the seige took place after the war started and involved a lot of key players.

The battle at Ashford was fairly early in the rebellion, and then after the victory Mace Tyrell was ordered to take Storm's End to weaken Robert's support among his vassals. Aside from the battle at Ashford, Mace wasn't involved in any big battles that I can recall, and we know (from Stannis grousing about it) that Stannis wasn't involved in most of the rebellion.

Either way. See you on other forums.

This is what, the third time you said you were leaving this thread?

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The battle at Ashford was fairly early in the rebellion, and then after the victory Mace Tyrell was ordered to take Storm's End to weaken Robert's support among his vassals. Aside from the battle at Ashford, Mace wasn't involved in any big battles that I can recall, and we know (from Stannis grousing about it) that Stannis wasn't involved in most of the rebellion.

This is what, the third time you said you were leaving this thread?

5th by my account.

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Targaryens were not immune to being burnt by fire, so Jon being being burnt doesn't prove anything either way. What happened to Dany at the end of GoT with her dragons was a circumstantial miracle, to do with the same magic that hatched the dragon eggs.

I know the Wall's going to have to come down, that's a given, but Greywater Watch is at the very southern end of the North, between Moat Cailin and the Twins. I just don't see Jon making his way that far south. I'd say Winterfell would be as far as he would probably get.

Even so That does not mean that Howland Reed would not want to possibly help John restore Winterfell since he was one of Neds best Friends. Maybe they will meet at Winterfell and Bran and Rickon and Reeds children will come back there too. That would be quite the reunion Reed and His family and the remaining Stark brothers to try to rebuild winterfell to fight the others from after the wall falls. Maybe it wont happen like that but it would be pretty sweet if it did.

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I get not liking a theory or not believing it, but claiming that a theory with as much circumstantial evidence as R+L=J or even L=KoTL is obviously wrong or is ridiculous baffles me. Whether they turn out to be true or not, there is certainly enough evidence for them to be reasonable. The fact that so many people (people that analyze these books enough that they've found and post on a forum about them) believe these theories shows that they are at least reasonable.

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