The NFL Thread 10

[Maithanet]

I admit, I don't know too much about the Charles vs Jones discussion specifically. But something about that FO article rubbed me the wrong way. If a coach is limiting the carries of his better back until later in the season, then I think that is the kind of move that can pay off in the playoffs. Any team that is reliant on their running attack (KC certainly applies) needs the best back as healthy as possible come playoff time.

The coach is not obligated give his best back the opportunity to compete for the rushing title. If he feels like Charles may have injury/stamina issues and that limiting him to 20 carries a game is the way to go, then good for him. Stats are meaningless. Could Charles running more have turned the tide in an otherwise close loss? Possibly (@Oakland comes to mind). But running backs have to be among the most injury prone positions in football, and losing a little bit of speed there matters more than it does elsewhere on the field. Having Charles at 100% for a playoff run is really valuable, and frankly I think the article is wrong to dismiss this offhand.

[Kalbear]

The coach isn't obligated to give the back the rushing title. However, he should (for example) give the ball to the back that is most likely going to score given the same situation. Jones is flat out bad in the red zone nowadays, and Charles isn't. Why give it to Jones in that situation?

And it's not like Jones hasn't had injuries either.

Both players may be well-rested, but it's not going to matter if KC doesn't make the playoffs because they lost to Oakland in a winnable game.

[Rockroi]

Is it cruel of me to want Tom Brady to finish 3rd in MVP voting just to see Rock go Internet Insane! while the rest of the board goes, "Hey there champ. Why don't you try not talking for awhile?"

It would be warped poetic justice if somehow the voters agreed that Tom Brady was the third-best QB on the league. Then again, I think the "Warped Poetic Justice" took its ass-whuppin' out on me when it made a talentless hack make his last professional football reception with his helmet. And then the very next game had another talentless hack end my QB's season.

Regardless, there is no way Brady is finishing anywhere but first or second. Even among those voters who are saying that Vick is in the discussion (ie- Chris Mortinson of ESPN and Peter King of SI), they then are quick to add that even WITH all this, they would vote for Brady. The problem for Brady is that (and this is going to sound bad, but ...) his play is expected to be outstanding. People look at him and say "Well, Tom Brady is acting like Tom Brady" and leave it at that. Brady should be a great QB with over 7x as many TDs as INTs; Tom Brady should be leading his team into the playoffs without the benefit of other super-stars; Tom Brady should be playing at a level over and above everyone else save Peyton Manning (and whoever it is others think is the second-best QB in the league). That's the bed Tom Brady has made for himself.

Its a different universe for Michael Vick. For starters, just like Brady, Vick is having an amazing season- he is passing and running like the best all-purpose player in the NFL. Even if you include the three missed games, he's amazing in every statistical category. Second, however, is that Vick had no such expectations baggage: hell, he was the back-up for God's sake when the season started! He was never supposed to be anything but a serviceable player. Everything he does is one incredible "Who would have thunk it?" He is, finally, an amazing success story in that he appears to have shed his past life, done his time, and recovered his life and livelihood. For me that makes him comeback player of the decade.

But not the MVP (yet). Yes, I am an unabashed homer. But at the same time, Brady's performance has been nothing short of stunning when you consider that:

1. Brady leads Vick in almost every major category:

Yards thrown

Brady: 3561

Vick: 2755

Touchdowns

Brady: 31

Vick: 20

Quarterback Rating

Brady: 109.9

Vick: 103.6

Completion Percentage

Brady: 66.6

Vick: 63.2

Interceptions

Brady: 4

Vick: 5

The two areas where Vick has an advantage are rushing yards (Vick has 613 yards rushing to go with 8 rushing TDs v. Brady's 17 yards and 1 TD), but when you combine this with fumbles (Brady has 3 total fumbles; Vick has 8) and the fact that Qbs are not really expected to be running machines, its more of a push; and yards per attempt where Vick 8.37 to Brady's 7.93. I was actually stunned that Brady's was so high, but when you factor in YAK, it makes much more sense. However, overall statistics tend to benefit Brady and by a considerable margin.

2. Supporting cast.

Tom Brady lost his best WR after game 4; his possession receiver is recovering from a season-ending ACL tear. He lost his 3rd down running back early in the season (a loss many in NE considered devastating). Of all the other WR and TEs Brady throws to NOT A SINGLE ONE OF THEM caught a ball from Brady the previous season (Hernandez, Gronkowski, Tate, Woodhead, Branch, etc). The Pats D is one of the worst in the NFL - ranked 28th in total yards allowed (v. Philly at 13), 30th v. pass (Philly at 21), 15th v. the rush (Philly is at 11); the Pats D is also DEAD LAST in preventing 3rd down conversions.

LeSean McCoy has over 1000 yards rushing this season; BenJarvus Green-Ellis has about 800. McCoy also had over 500 yards receiving; BJGE has about 70. Maclin and Jackson are both having all-pro or near all-pro seasons. While both Branch and Welker are great, but Welker is not having as good a season as Jackson; Branch not as good a season as Maclin.

Overall, I think Tom Brady is far more valuable to the whole Pats team and helps them win more games than Vick does the Eagles.

3. The Best of the Best

Tom Brady is potentially having one of the best streaks a QB has ever had. In the six games since the loss to Cleveland, Tom Brady has gone 133 for 188 (over 70% completion), with 17Tds and 0 INTs, with an average QB rating of 128.5. The competition for those 6 games, all but ONE team is either in first or second place in their division. While Vick has been incredible, he has no streak comparable to Brady.

4. Lets Look at the Real Statistics

According to Football Outsiders, Tom Brady has 400 more DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) over the next nearest QB (Philip Rivers). The difference between Brady and Rivers on the list is far far greater than the difference between any other two consecutive slots on the list (ie: the difference between 1 and 2 is greater than the dif between 2 and 3, 3 and 4, 23 and 24, 24 and 25, etc); his DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average- or Brady's value PER PLAY) is at 53.9%; no other QB has a DYAR over 38%. Brady beats Vick in every single one of the metrics FO uses and its not close.

This is just an argument and none of us have the complete facts. The reality is we still have 2 weeks of football to watch and things can change. The reality is, though, that if Vick wins I can see it being for reasons outside of what was produced on the field. Vick also has one MAJOR thing going for him besides his comeback: his name is not Tom Brady or Peyton Manning. Many could be sick of giving every major award to those two players.

But if they deserve it ...

For me, I ultimately agree with Stego- while I would still probably go nutzoid if Brady does not get the MVP, it matters not at all if the Pats win the Ring at the end of the year. I mean... the year Brady won the MVP? How'd that work out for the Pats?

[Jaime L]

I admit, I don't know too much about the Charles vs Jones discussion specifically. But something about that FO article rubbed me the wrong way. If a coach is limiting the carries of his better back until later in the season, then I think that is the kind of move that can pay off in the playoffs. Any team that is reliant on their running attack (KC certainly applies) needs the best back as healthy as possible come playoff time.

The coach is not obligated give his best back the opportunity to compete for the rushing title. If he feels like Charles may have injury/stamina issues and that limiting him to 20 carries a game is the way to go, then good for him. Stats are meaningless. Could Charles running more have turned the tide in an otherwise close loss? Possibly (@Oakland comes to mind). But running backs have to be among the most injury prone positions in football, and losing a little bit of speed there matters more than it does elsewhere on the field. Having Charles at 100% for a playoff run is really valuable, and frankly I think the article is wrong to dismiss this offhand.

KC has to make the playoffs first which is still no guarantee. Who knows which of the losses could've been turned had he put the optimum lineup on the field as much as he could (Indy, Oakland and Houston were all possible wins). And do you think he was resting Charles up for the playoffs from day 1?

I mean, hell, why are the Patriots still starting Tom Brady? Division's locked up and here's a guy who has missed a whole season due to injury. You play scared about injuries you're really never maximizing your team's performance. No other team uses its star back this way. Charles isn't even the starter.

The thing is, the more you look at this situation the more you get the sense that this is Haley not grasping what he has in Charles. He either doesn't realize how much better Charles is than Jones or he thinks that Jones' 3 yards and a cloud of dust running style somehow wears down defenses better. Either way the stats back up what my eye tells me: The man is hurting his team every time out by not using the best weapon he has to even a normal, reasonable extent. Charles is the same size as full time backs like Chris Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw and Clinton Portis (when he was with Denver). Not to go all Herm Edwards here but You Play to Win the Game! This isn't a back on the verge of being run into the ground. This is Chris Johnson being treated like he's Darren Sproles.

ETA: Last week was especially brutal: Charles was averaging 11.5 ypc and got half the carries (11 to 22) of a guy averaging 2.8 ypc.

[Jaime L]

How could anyone but Brady win it?

Dude...some people don't even have Brady making the AFC Pro Bowl.

And Brady didn’t get a vote from Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs.

Suggs told Michael Silver of Yahoo! Sports that Suggs voted for Philip Rivers, Manning, and Ryan Fitzpatrick in the first-place, second-place, and third-place ballot.

So why not Brady? “I’m pretty sure he didn’t vote for me, either,” Suggs said.

[DanteGabriel]

Terrell Suggs is, of course, a fucking moron. Well he's probably just trying to get under Brady's skin, but he is also a fucking moron.

[The Dude]

Not nearly as impressive as the Metrodome failure, but Qualcomm (the Chargers stadium) is under a fair bit of water ATM:

http://www.chargers.com/media-vault/videos/Qualcomm-floods/ca4ac7db-730f-4048-95a5-fd35cf7cecbd

Good job building in a river valley, right?

[Starkess]

It hasn't stopped effing raining here for weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeks!!!! (Okay, it may have only been a few days, but I was underway in a fog bank for 2 weeks before these days, so it has literally been effing weeks since I've seen the sun.

I blame the Chargers. Somehow.

[The Dude]

It hasn't stopped effing raining here for weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeks!!!! (Okay, it may have only been a few days, but I was underway in a fog bank for 2 weeks before these days, so it has literally been effing weeks since I've seen the sun.

I blame the Chargers. Somehow.

Lol, it does feel like forever and we can't handle the rain (as the video obviously shows).

As for the Chargers, I wouldn't doubt that the special teams had something to do with this.

[Maithanet]

KC has to make the playoffs first which is still no guarantee. Who knows which of the losses could've been turned had he put the optimum lineup on the field as much as he could (Indy, Oakland and Houston were all possible wins). And do you think he was resting Charles up for the playoffs from day 1?

I mean, hell, why are the Patriots still starting Tom Brady? Division's locked up and here's a guy who has missed a whole season due to injury. You play scared about injuries you're really never maximizing your team's performance. No other team uses its star back this way. Charles isn't even the starter.

The thing is, the more you look at this situation the more you get the sense that this is Haley not grasping what he has in Charles. He either doesn't realize how much better Charles is than Jones or he thinks that Jones' 3 yards and a cloud of dust running style somehow wears down defenses better. Either way the stats back up what my eye tells me: The man is hurting his team every time out by not using the best weapon he has to even a normal, reasonable extent. Charles is the same size as full time backs like Chris Johnson, Ahmad Bradshaw and Clinton Portis (when he was with Denver). Not to go all Herm Edwards here but You Play to Win the Game! This isn't a back on the verge of being run into the ground. This is Chris Johnson being treated like he's Darren Sproles.

ETA: Last week was especially brutal: Charles was averaging 11.5 ypc and got half the carries (11 to 22) of a guy averaging 2.8 ypc.

That Patriots starting Tom Brady isn't comparable and you know it. Quarterbacks take some hits, but the punishment is nothing like what running backs go through week in and week out. And it's not like Charles isn't getting carries at all, he is just getting fewer than you would expect.

I assume that you are exactly right about motivation - Haley feels that Charles is better with fewer carries, and that Jones is capable of punishing the defense in a way that Charles is not. Both of those things are pretty difficult to capture with stats. It is pretty unusual to take this approach when you have one of the best backs in the league. Generally the two or three headed monster approach to running backs is what you do when you don't have a premiere back, and try to make up for the deficiencies in one back with the strengths of another.

But frankly, I don't think that the stats prove that Haley is mismanaging these games. Yes, it would be frustrating for both Charles and Chiefs fans to see their premiere back get relatively few carries. But the Chiefs are winning the division, something nobody really predicted, and could very realistically make a run in the playoffs if they can run the ball effectively in bad weather. So Haley's decision to keep Charles as fresh as possible looks like it might pay off beautifully.

[Mexal]

AJ Green is forgoing his senior season and entering the draft as expected. The Bengals would be absolutely idiotic to pass on him unless it's for Luck. Then all we'd need to do is find a QB next year.

I would like to keep Ocho for one more year to pair up with Green then have Green be his replacement. We could be good again in 2 years which isn't all that bad considering this year.

[Jaxom 1974]

AJ Green is forgoing his senior season and entering the draft as expected. The Bengals would be absolutely idiotic to pass on him unless it's for Luck. Then all we'd need to do is find a QB next year.

Kyle Orton. Paging Kyle Orton. :P

[Stego]

AJ Green is forgoing his senior season and entering the draft as expected. The Bengals would be absolutely idiotic to pass on him

The Bengals would be absolutely idiotic to draft a wide receiver when they have so many holes in the positions that matter.

This is the mindset that has made the Bungles a joke for decades.

[Bronn Stone]

I'm in San Diego right now. This weather is NOT normal this time of year.

Stego is 100% right. In reality, the Bengals should be marketing that pick to move down and get more players. They have a billion holes.

[Lord O' Bones]

I'm in San Diego right now. This weather is NOT normal this time of year.

I just left San Bernardino and have returned to Santa Maria. It's nice to not be drowning for a change. Just soaking wet.

And that's the closest I can come to posting anything relevant about the 49ers. Until they go to the playoffs this year.

[Jaxom 1974]

And that's the closest I can come to posting anything relevant about the 49ers. Until they go to the playoffs this year.

Did some of their players buy tickets to go to a first round game in St. Louis then...? :P

[Maithanet]

If SF wins their final 2 games and Seattle has at least one more loss, then they are in, right (due to better divisional record)? That would be awesome.

[Mexal]

The Bengals would be absolutely idiotic to draft a wide receiver when they have so many holes in the positions that matter.

This is the mindset that has made the Bungles a joke for decades.

I disagree completely. We have holes but one of those is at WR. TO is gone, Chad is an unrestricted free agent unless they pick up a 6 mil option. Who is left? Caldwell? Shipley? Simpson? I love Shipley but he was built for the slot. Neither Simpson nor Caldwell have done anything in 3 years. So we have nothing left. Green is a guy who will immediately help out a new QB next year, the others not so much.

Our other holes are QB which we won't address this year, safety, Oline and Dline. There is no Oline or safety prospect worth a top 5 pick so let's cut that out. At Dline, you have Bowens, Quinn and Fairley. I wouldn't mind Bowens or Fairely but I am less bothered by the line than I would be given Dunlap's brilliant production and MJ's and Atkins recent success. There is also the point that dline is deep this draft so could get great talent later if we wanted.

Regardless, WR is one of our holes and Green will be the best player on the board.

I agree about trading out of the spot but it is the Bengals. They never move on draft day.

What would you do to fill our needs. Remember, we have 15 players on IR, second only to Indy.

[Lord O' Bones]

Did some of their players buy tickets to go to a first round game in St. Louis then...? :P

They only have to beat the Rams and the Cards to make this happen. Since this would be historically embarrassing, generally ridiculous, totally fuck their draft position, and the San Francisco baseball Giants won the 2010 World Series, yeah; probably gonna happen.

[Lord O' Bones]

What drove you to that awful place?

Family. It's a terrible thing to have. But they have a cabin at Lake Arrowhead.

ETA: Also, Santa Maria sucks way more ass than San Bernardino.

FYI