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Egypt Mk. 3


Inigima

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LOL. Now that I finally know what Coco thinks, mostly, I'm not sure I have anything else to say until the next news cycle.

I guess I want to hear thoughts on whether people think it's likely that Egypt will invade Israel if Mubarek is toppled and/or Isreal will finally sign a peace agreement and cede the Palestinian's land back to them.

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The MB has been a counter imperialist force since the brits.

But they weren't just counter-imperialists, and broke with Sadat because he made peace with Israel. For which the Arab League booted Egypt out of the organization, you may recall.

They weren't responsible for killing Sadat, though. Sadat wasn't a puppet, but holy shit, he wasn't a Nasser either.

He wasn't Nasser, but he also was President during the 1973 War, so we wasn't exactly a tool of the Zionists either. Dude just wanted peace, and he was murdered by radicals and ostracized by other Arab governments because of that. So again, blaming the U.S. support of Mubarak for the existence of the MB and other radicals/fundamentalist in Egypt ignores the historical timeline.

I think the reality is that the U.S. doesn't give a shit about who runs Egypt as long as whomever it is doesn't make Egypt a threat to other nations. That is not an unreasonable expectation. And if Egypt cannot develop a democratic majority that is willing to live the guidelines of not fucking with countries that don't fuck with it, then it hardly has the room to bitch if some of those other countries take steps to ensure that doesn't happen.

Now to be honest, I don't know what's going to come of all this. I think it would be wonderful if the result was a democratic government that wanted to live in peace with its neighbors. And again, I think the U.S. should be pretty clear about that latter part being an "up-front" aspect of the U.S. position on the whole thing.

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I guess I want to hear thoughts on whether people think it's likely that Egypt will invade Israel if Mubarek is toppled and/or Isreal will finally sign a peace agreement and cede the Palestinian's land back to them.

No idea (which of course is why I'm not taking sides). I do find it interesting however that both Hamas and Fatah have kept silent on the issue.

The Hamas rulers of Gaza and the rival Palestinian Authority leadership of the West Bank rarely see eye-to-eye on anything. But with mass protests rocking Egypt, across Gaza’s southern border, the Palestinian adversaries have united in maintaining a cautious silence, hedging their bets given the unpredictability of the outcome and clearly concerned about a possible spread of popular unrest to their areas.

Both Hamas and the Western-backed Palestinian Authority have prevented popular demonstrations in support of protesting Egyptians in recent days, apparently preferring to show a front of Palestinian neutrality and worried that things could spin out of control.

And considering that pretty any outcome other than Mubarak stays/a new military strongman takes over would lead to an Egypt much friendly to Hamas I think its clear that no ones has any idea about how it will turn out.

Additionally from that article,

In an early sign that people on both sides were seeking to capitalize on the regional turmoil, Palestinians inspired by how social networking sites helped to mobilize demonstrators in Egypt and Tunisia created two pages on Facebook over the weekend, one urging people to rebel against the Islamic militant rulers of Gaza, and the other against the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.
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Invade? I think it's doubtful, even if the MB or someone similar comes to power.

But they might do a whole lot of "Look at us, we have a big stick, want to have a go eh or change your tune eh?", they know they can't take Israel, so they won't.

But they might take a more aggressive stance in various issues, support various anti-israeli groups, and if/when things really go to the shitter they'll join in, but I don't think this in isolation would change things. (Just as I don't think Iran would have launched a full-scale invasion had they somehow ended up bordering Israel)

I actually suspect the first step of any new egyptian government would be to try to "export the revolution", and try to fan the flames off and support the revolts in Algeria, Yemen, etc.

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I think the reality is that the EGYPT doesn't give a shit about who runs THE UNITED STATES as long as whomever it is doesn't make THE UNITED STATES a threat to other nations. That is not an unreasonable expectation. And if THE UNITED STATES cannot develop a democratic majority that is willing to live the guidelines of not fucking with countries that don't fuck with it, then it hardly has the room to bitch if some of those other countries take steps to ensure that doesn't happen.

LOL FLOW SUPPORTS TERRORISM

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Man, a lot of us are going to have egg on our faces if the Bush Doctrine turns out to actually work. :P

Haha, if there is one thing I'm sure of.. if it does, NOBODY on this board would be caught dead attributing successful democracy in the ME to Bush Jr. :lol:

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Man, a lot of us are going to have egg on our faces if the Bush Doctrine turns out to actually work. :P

Which is why i want to hear from the Neo-Cons. Like i said last thread the neo-cons wanted this, except in the exact opposite way it's going down.

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I think the real wild card in this situation is wheat. Right now Egypt is a massive importer of wheat from the US and other countries, that is in turn used to provide cheap food to the people. If the revolt continues for very long the grain already in the graineries will run out, not long after that blood will really flow.

I would like to think that the US would do the right thing, which is to stay the fuck out of Egypt's internal conflict and only get involved if things really go sideways, ie Egypt declares war on Israel.

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Which is why i want to hear from the Neo-Cons. Like i said last thread the neo-cons wanted this, except in the exact opposite way it's going down.

Maybe I shouldn't have changed my avatar from Dick Cheney.

Well, putting on a Neo-Con hat for a second, this is easy. If this results in a non-aggressive democracy, then Bush was right. If it results in some other form of a more aggressive state, then obviously Obama screwed the whole thing up. :devil:

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Maybe I shouldn't have changed my avatar from Dick Cheney.

Well, putting on a Neo-Con hat for a second, this is easy. If this results in a non-aggressive democracy, then Bush was right. If it results in some other form of a more aggressive state, then obviously Obama screwed the whole thing up. :devil:

I laughed out loud at this and the people at Noodles & Co. probably think I'm crazy now.

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Maybe I shouldn't have changed my avatar from Dick Cheney.

Well, putting on a Neo-Con hat for a second, this is easy. If this results in a non-aggressive democracy, then Bush was right. If it results in some other form of a more aggressive state, then obviously Obama screwed the whole thing up. :devil:

nice :thumbsup:

from my woefully under-informed view i give credit to the internets for all this.

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No idea (which of course is why I'm not taking sides). I do find it interesting however that both Hamas and Fatah have kept silent on the issue.

And considering that pretty any outcome other than Mubarak stays/a new military strongman takes over would lead to an Egypt much friendly to Hamas I think its clear that no ones has any idea about how it will turn out.

Additionally from that article,

Hamas and Fatah don't want to fuck around with taking sides here because so much shit makes it into Gaza from Egypt. They have the most to lose from picking the wrong side here, so they won't pick a side at all.

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