Egypt Mk. 3

[Eddison]

The networks are all showing the the anti-Mubarak barricades, but the pro-mubarak barricades (and re-arming) were new to me. CNN also said that the pro-Mubarak protesters were being re-armed from trucks passing by on the adjacent highway.

[Jerol]

The final word on NBC Nightly News was that the pro-Mubarak forces were being pushed back in Cairo, for whatever that's worth.

[Cantabile]

From what my Egyptian friends are telling me it sounds like it's pretty much game over at this point. Seems that most people are losing hope and becoming extremely dispirited, which is no surprise since the protests have achieved very little despite their scope. Within a few days everyone will go back to their daily lives.

Peaceful protests are futile when the opposition can simply sit back in luxury and wait it out.

[Shryke]

It looks like the most hardcore are the ones remaining behind in Tahrir, since I've heard much of the same thing.

On the other hand, these things do ebb and flow. Just look at how Algeria progressed: it took years to drive out the French, but there would be protests coming out of nowhere.

I think the fact that the INTERTUBES are back on is promising. I'm sure that Uncle Hosni turned it on to try to convince everyone watching that the anti-government protesters were starting the fights.

The live AJE feed said that there's an "endless supply" of molotovs from the basij-wannabes.

This seems to have been his big strategy. Get his goons in place and try and make it look like it's the anti-government forces causing all the damage and fuss. Open communication up to let people see but crack down on all reporters and the like to keep what's actually going on from getting out.

I do worry the protesters may be loosing steam though.

I think, however, that Mubarak is done no matter what. The question now is he gone real soon or does he get to sit around and burn more records/strip money from the country or the like while trying to rig the election to get a lacky or buddy of his in power after him.

[IheartTesla]

Yeah, more concessions have been granted by the regime in a relatively short period of time compared to say, Iran. And I dare say dissatisfaction with the government is much more in Egypt than in Iran. International pressure on Mubarak has also been slowly growing (although the US envoy seems not to have got anything concrete from his visit).

All it takes sometimes is a spark to ignite things (like say the army firing on citizens which has never happened). I'm not sure the lack of a central figure on which to focus or lead the protests has helped or hurt - ElBaradei doesnt seem to count for much.

[Shryke]

:lol:

http://www.theonion.com/articles/us-negotiating-mubaraks-severance-package,19037/

[Demonblade]

Time for some boldness based on principles, not just expediency, IMHO.

btw, even the anti-Israel/anti-west rhetoric I've read from protestors seems to be along the lines of "we hate the jewish bastards, but we really don't want to go to war." Okay, if that's as good as we can get, maybe that's good enough.

Completely agreed, on both counts. Sometimes you just have to go by your principles, not by what's most practical, and Obama really needs to go by his principles on this one. And if democracy truly comes to Egypt, the Israelis will finally be forced to deal with the Egyptian people, not some US puppet. Whatever comes out of that discussion (war being the least possible outcome, imo), will only benefit all parties involved, including the Palestinians.

[Fez]

Is it in bad taste to post this?

Let me know.

Nope. These lame jokes from an otherwise serious NYT article may be though...

Q. What happens if the protesters in Egypt win?

A. They advance to the finals against Tunisia.

Another popular joke featured a conversation between President Obama and Mr. Mubarak. “I suggest you write a farewell note to the Egyptian people,” Mr. Obama says. “Why?” Mr. Mubarak asks. “Where are they going?”

[Horza]

Agreed 'cause how long can they continue the way they've been going? You have to think that without Mubarak stepping down or the protests taking things up a notch and becoming more violent (or the Army stepping in)... they'll run out of steam soon, right? Its already drug on much longer than I expected without reaching any type of conclusive result.

How long do revolutions take?

Months and years.

[KAH]

We are all watching today's events in Egypt and it really looks like Mubarak is ready to use violence to stay in power. Obama's words might be able to deter that by persuading him to step down NOW.

Obama's words aren't going to do shit. In cases like these, diplomacy without intent to do something is going to achieve nothing. Mubarak is fighting for his continued (political and other) life.

Obama showing intent to do something might, however, succeed. Diplomacy with teeth.

With the latest developments, they could put the thumbscrews on Egypt economically. First move is removal of aid, and political and economical isolation a la Zimbabwe (i.e. of the elite). As Mugabe shows, that may not be enough, but it's worth a try.

If this doesn't work, it's economical sanctions against Egypt in it's entirety. That is going to bite Mubarak, but it's going to take it's toll on the Egyptian people as well, at least if goes on for long.

After that, the remaining US cards are of the military bent, which you may or may not countenance (well, probably not).

Bottom line is, words meant only for domestic consumption are likely useless and could well be harmful. If Obama is going to say something, he should be ready to back it up with something real.

[Shryke]

It's a mistake to think what's said publically is all they are doing anyway. Especially in the case of a client state relationship like the US and Egypt.

The public statements are all PR stuff. It's about image. Any real hard call for change would be going on in secret cables anyway.

And given the language the US has used on this in the last few days (ie - "the Egyptian people need reform and that reform needs to start now"), it's not unlikely that there's alot of private pressure being placed on Mubarak by the US to step down and start a fair election process right the fuck now.

The US could change it's public calls to, but that's a consideration divorced from the kind of economic or political pressure they'd be putting on Mubarak to step down anyway.