Egypt thread 4

[Fez]

Looks like police won round 1 in Algeria...

Gathering in the central May 1 Square, demonstrators chanted “Bouteflika out!” in reference to President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, who has ruled Algeria since 1999. Organizers said thousands had taken part, but news agencies gave vastly differing figures, from a few dozen to thousands.

The protesters were hemmed in by thousands of riot police officers and blocked from embarking on a planned march through the capital. Many were arrested, although there were also conflicting numbers for those detained.

A witness said the police had far outnumbered the protesters.

“There was a march of police, not demonstrators,” said a man standing near the square in the afternoon, and who spoke on condition of anonymity. “The marchers had asked to conduct a peaceful march and it was refused. This is how power here acts.”

By Saturday afternoon, no protesters were evident in the area around the square, which was lined by riot police officers and armored security vehicles. A police helicopter circled overhead. Principal roads into the center of the city also remained blocked, and far fewer people were on the streets than would normally be on a Saturday.

I'll admit to have greatly underestimated the strength of this wave of protests (or perhaps overestimated the strength of Mubarak) but I'm not sure how many more regimes will fall. I don't think states with great oil wealth and/or states which rely on tribal ties are at any real risk to fall. And outside of those states, as well as ones where the army and regime are united and willing to commit massive atrocities (looking at you Syria) like flat out killing everyone who doesn't run away, there aren't really that many candidates left. I guess Jordan is the most likely, but if its only a Palestinian and Iraqi refugee thing and the protests don't include any native Jordanians, then 1) I don't think protests will succeed and 2) the situation could get very ugly.

[Lord O' Bones]

I know it's early days, celebrations are premature, etc, but it's hard not to be moved by what we just saw in Egypt. This article made me mist up a little, especially this part;

That, outside of the dilution that we put the word through, is in fact, awesome.

Man, I hope this sentiment is ultimately justified.

[KAH]

Looks like police won round 1 in Algeria...

I'll admit to have greatly underestimated the strength of this wave of protests (or perhaps overestimated the strength of Mubarak) but I'm not sure how many more regimes will fall. I don't think states with great oil wealth and/or states which rely on tribal ties are at any real risk to fall. And outside of those states, as well as ones where the army and regime are united and willing to commit massive atrocities (looking at you Syria) like flat out killing everyone who doesn't run away, there aren't really that many candidates left. I guess Jordan is the most likely, but if its only a Palestinian and Iraqi refugee thing and the protests don't include any native Jordanians, then 1) I don't think protests will succeed and 2) the situation could get very ugly.

I'm not very hopeful for Algeria even if it doesn't have great oil wealth. It's not even a decade since the civil war there (mostly) petered out, and the spectre of GIA will probably linger for the better part of a generation before real change can be had there...

[RWHamel]

Jordan is like Syria in that they have a secret police that will kill any trouble makers. Yemen is a lot like Texas, in that everyone is armed.

[RWHamel]

<sarcasm> Yah! Mubarack is out. </sarcasm> We can only hope that the next dictator is as liberal and peace loving. Maybe Egypt won't be screwed over too badly by the economic hit-men.

[sologdin]

screwed over too badly by the economic hit-men

that horse left stable during the oustered administration's tenure. most of nasser's socialistic policy was destroyed by the IMF austerity regime during the '80s and '90s. i think the egyptian constitution was amended in recent years to abolish de jure the socialistic language that had already been de facto destroyed. doesn't stop some rightwingers from complaining that mubarak was a commie!!!!, though.

[Padraig]

We can only hope that the next dictator is as liberal and peace loving. Maybe Egypt won't be screwed over too badly by the economic hit-men.

I wouldn't give up on the Egyptian people just yet. They have managed something that you (I bet) would have said was impossible a month ago. At least 99.9% of the people on this board would't achieve anything as momentous.

I'm not saying that things wouldn't falter. I am saying that things have changed. Such dictatorships will never again be so inviolable.

[RWHamel]

Such dictatorships will never again be so inviolable.

I must disagree.

[Demonblade]

The Egyptian army has already proclaimed the legitimacy of the Egyptian people when they sided with them in this whole mess. At face value, sure this is a military coup. But through social networking, the Egyptian people have basically taken control of the country. I mean really, do you think that the military can just go against what they have pledged to do, which is run free, democratic elections? Or are you assuming that the Egyptian people will elect a government hostile to the US and Israel and will then just take over the military and run yet-another dictatorship? Is this based on anything other than prejudiced assumptions?

Truth be told, whatever you think may happen, just as the likelihood of seeing an actual democratic process in Egypt. As bystanders from another continent, your guess is as good as mine. But what these last two weeks has shown me is that the Egyptian people have shown us all how to overthrow repressive dictatorships. I mean, there was practically no conflict, primarily because the protesters saw the military as citizens just as they were, not as the oppressors. The military was not provoked into a fight, leaving civil disobedience the driving force behind regime change. That's pretty impressive, and with so many Egyptians putting aside differences and basking in national pride, it makes returning to another repressive dictatorship that less likely.

[Fez]

But what these last two weeks has shown me is that the Egyptian people have shown us all how to overthrow repressive dictatorships.

I'm going to still say they've shown us only how to overthrow a certain type of repressive dictator. I don't think their methods would work in a country where the military has been isolated to such a degree from the people that would be very willing to attack them if ordered, or a country where the economy is actually booming (even if its only based off oil exports and its only the actual citizens who are doing well), or a country where a large segment of the population is actually highly supportive of the regime despite its repressiveness, or a country where social networking tools are not available, or a country where the population has been brain-washed (North Korea's regime may fall, but it would be due to a civil war after Kim dies, not a popular uprising).

Egypt and Tunisia are actually somewhat special cases in that neither fits into any of those categories. They both had highly unpopular leaders who oversaw struggling economies with a large segment of their population well-educated and under-employed and with access to social networking tools and had military forces that were not isolated and were highly professionalized. Situations like that (excepting the social networking which is a new component) have been a recipe for toppling a dictator for a while now. In the case of Egypt I had thought that Mubarak had a higher degree of support then he really did from several civilian sectors as well as the armed forces (if push came to shove and he had ordered it I thought that there would be at least some units that would have been willing to fire at the crowds for instance) and so that's why I was continually confident that he would not be forced out.

[RWHamel]

Padraig, so I guess I will rise to to the bait.

I wouldn't give up on the Egyptian people just yet.

This assumes that I have some expectation in the Egyptian people, and that I've given up on it. Well, I think many of the Egyptians want the normal things. They want a job. One that pays enough for them to lead a good life. They don't want someone else 's hand in their pocket screwing them over. I still think this. So, in that respect I haven't given up on them.

As I write, the Egyptian Army is clamping down. I bet the people are going to get a good groping.

I also think they are dupes, and have been manipulated into doing this. Throughout Europe, Egyptian assets are being seized. Of course, the reason given, it's money that Mubarak has stolen from Egypt. But really, how much of that money is going to end up with Egypt, and not in the hands of Bankers/Lawyers/Politicians? Cynic and Misanthrope that I am, I say, “Let the looting begin!,” because it has. I am not singling out Europe, but they are amazingly faster in this case than the crooks on this side of the Atlantic.

They have managed something that you (I bet) would have said was impossible a month ago.

You have no idea what I was thinking a month ago. Since history has many examples of just such a situation, I would have to say that I definitely would have thought it was possible. I would have enjoyed it far more if Mubarak had been more like Saddam Hussein, Stalin, Adolf Hitler, Pol Pot or the regime in Myanmar.

At least 99.9% of the people on this board would't achieve anything as momentous.

That's one hell of a statement. I would assert that if 99.9% of this board united in a single goal, they could topple governments too!

I am saying that things have changed.

I bet you are one of these “change is good” people. It's Not! It's neither good nor bad. It's going from one state to another. Going by the past 3000 years of history in Egypt, I'm going to have to go with the odds are against a “good” change.