Datepalm Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 1) Are you accusing me of being off-topic? Because this thread topic is Egypt and the Middle East. Unless you want to imply Israel isn't part of the Middle East?What is she, mapai? Honestly, I didn't know IJ could pull off this kind of thing from Gaza without Hamas signoff. The PA has already made a few concessionary vaugely pro-democracy moves, seems like this is an opportunity to see some movement in Gaza as well and someone wants to draw attention to themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well, Gaddafi's grip seems to be weakening further. There are rumours of him losing Western cities now, alongside the East. But hard to see how Tripoli will fall. And to what? The opposition doesn't have a face. Is it just mass uprisings or is somebody actually organising the fight against Gaddafi's militias and loyalists?One of Gaddafi's sons has said that a new faces will have to take over direct control of Libya, although his father wouldn't dissapper. Interesting.Zardari is not liked, so I can see this happening. THAT would be some scary shit.Imran Kahn is a bit of a non-entity in Pakistan isn't he? I remember how he got a lot of attention in Europe because he married the daughter of a rick UK man but he doesn't rate at all in Pakistan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yoadm Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 Well, Gaddafi's grip seems to be weakening further. There are rumours of him losing Western cities now, alongside the East. But hard to see how Tripoli will fall. If he tries to hold in Tropoli, while the rest of the country crumbles around him, he will eventually lose. He has a few brigades around the city, but their loyalty is not indefinate. A good portion of the army defected. If he stayes in the capital and his prospects of reuniting the country under his rule seem bleak, he will gradually lose the rest of his troops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 If he tries to hold in Tropoli, while the rest of the country crumbles around him, he will eventually lose. He has a few brigades around the city, but their loyalty is not indefinate. A good portion of the army defected. If he stayes in the capital and his prospects of reuniting the country under his rule seem bleak, he will gradually lose the rest of his troops.Depends if the troops are actual army units or mercs (there's conflicting reports). If they're mercs then as long as they aren't in danger of being overwhelmed and there's enough money stashed away to keep paying them, they could hang around for a long time. Hell, if their army and belong to tribes that think their position will be weakened greatly in a democracy/different regime they could too.If cities in the west are joining the protesters however, I don't see how he Gadaffi can possibly regain control of the entire control though. I doubt the Saudis will send a massive bribe, as they seem to be trying with Bahrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Padraig Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 I'm beginning to think he will fall (based on the current rumours) but I was more talking about how he will fall. He has already ensured that things are very bloody. And given i've no idea who is actually going to dispose him, i'm left with way more questions than answers. Is somebody going to attack Tripoli? His grip there still seems solid. He could just try to hold out there and hope for something. A fracture in the opposition maybe.What complicates things is that he doesn't seem to have one military wing. He has these militias, some sort of mercenary wing, the army itself and these tribes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted February 23, 2011 Share Posted February 23, 2011 And the Fish Speakers. Don't forget them.If and when he gets done it will probably be one branch of his loyal supporters deciding that there is still a chance of getting out of this mess with their power more or less intact.At the rate everyone else is moving it doesn't look like UN/NATO/EU/ANZAC are going to put any military pressure on him - the Authoritarian Two at the UNSC are deeply leery of setting any precedents that may be used against them or their buddies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartTesla Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 In other news, Imran Khan says that the Raymond Davis issue could start a revolution in Pakistan:Zardari is not liked, so I can see this happening. THAT would be some scary shit.I don't think so. For one, there already exist democratic institutions in Pakistan, alhough the army keeps interrupting their functioning with regular frequency. Having said that, the fact that they have elected representatives does remove some of the motivation that existed in NA and ME. Secondly, I think urban Pakistanis are reasonably satisfied with their lot. If there is one thing I learned from the revolutions going on, they seemed to be driven in large population (urban) centers. I imagine the support for a Zardari overthrow would be more diffuse.Cameroon, Gabon, Zimbabwe and Mauritania....4 new places that might have protests. What the hell is going on in the world - I never thought I'd see this in my lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slyfinger Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Cameroon, Gabon, Zimbabwe and Mauritania....4 new places that might have protests. What the hell is going on in the world - I never thought I'd see this in my lifetime.Its like someone dropped a Mega-Culture Bomb, Civilization style. Facebook and Twitter would be awesome techs to use in a mod for Civ 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcbigski Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Nice of Obama to send Hilary to Geneva five days from now to make sure that we're internationalist enough before taking action. She's got to be thinking that it's been 3 o'clock for at least of couple of weeks now.I'm thinking he's congenitially incapable of taking a firm stand against Gaddafi or Iran just because Bush, Bush, and Reagan opposed them, and rather than decide to recognize the forces in control of Benghazi et al and use the Sixth Fleet to enforce a no fly zone around Tripoli, he'd rather let ten thousand or so more folks get shot than subject them to American imperialism. It's more important for him to snipe at the Governor of Wisconsin, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Horza Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Nice of Obama to send Hilary to Geneva five days from now to make sure that we're internationalist enough before taking action. She's got to be thinking that it's been 3 o'clock for at least of couple of weeks now.I'm thinking he's congenitially incapable of taking a firm stand against Gaddafi or Iran just because Bush, Bush, and Reagan opposed them, and rather than decide to recognize the forces in control of Benghazi et al and use the Sixth Fleet to enforce a no fly zone around Tripoli, he'd rather let ten thousand or so more folks get shot than subject them to American imperialism. It's more important for him to snipe at the Governor of Wisconsin, apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edward the Great Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 The first reason to avoid direct involvement is to avoid making the protesters look like American poodles. As to their deaths - it is their own country and their own future for which they are struggling. It is their duty to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Reptitious Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 mcbigski,use the Sixth Fleet to enforce a no fly zone around Tripoli, he'd rather let ten thousand or so more folks get shot than subject them to American imperialism.I agree with the need for a no-fly zone, but the Americans unilaterally imposing one could easily backfire in unintended ways. The region is very leery and suspicious of Americans, for, IMHO, obvious reasons. If the UN won't act, then at least it should be a multinational organization such as NATO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcbigski Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 mcbigski,I agree with the need for a no-fly zone, but the Americans unilaterally imposing one could easily backfire in unintended ways. The region is very leery and suspicious of Americans, for, IMHO, obvious reasons. If the UN won't act, then at least it should be a multinational organization such as NATO.True to a point, hence the part about recognizing the faction in charge in Benghazi as the legitimate provisional government. I was assuming they'd then be in favor of coordinating with our air power when they take Tripoli, but I don't think that's much of a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddison Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 An official advocates deadly force and live ammunition to deal with protesters multiple times...in Indiana. I put this here because I'm not interested in the politics. I'm interested in the amazing hypocritastic bizarro mirror of current events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazydog7 Posted February 24, 2011 Share Posted February 24, 2011 Goodbye old thread. Don't worry a new one is sure to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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