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Egypt and the Middle East Thread 6


zollo

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Swedish Magazine Vi has a tradition of interviewing children from across the world now and then, this time from Tunisia, they ask the same questions ("What's your favourite thing?" "What do you like the most?" "What do you not like?" "What do you want to be when you grow up?" "What's your dream?" and so forth) they've done this in the Congo, in Bangladesh, etc. etc.

One girl: "What's your favourite thing?" "Tunisia!" "What do you not like?" "Former president Ben-Ali!" "Why?" "Because he's evil!" (her parents were lawayers...) a boy apparently answered to "What do you not like?" "Snipers." which made his dad very nervous. Most common dream jobs seemed to be either football player or doctor. (one boy wanted to be a boxer becuase "People beat me a lot at school.") His dream was to build an orphanage for children who lost their parents by the way...

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Should have stopped decades ago.

They did. Then Gaddafi got all nervous after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, completely exposed his nuke program to inspectors (who were completely shocked as to how advanced it was -- wrong again, IAEA), and dismantled it. So that really was a good thing for which he was rewarded with trade. I really don't have a problem with that.

Would refusing to buy Libyan oil (1) have a fast enough effect to worry Gaddafi in the next few days? and (2) not make the situation worse for the people of Libya?

Very good points. I don't think so.

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I imagine the problem with multilateral actions is that it will always tend to be slower than unilateral actions.

True, but at least when putting together a multilateral effort, you only have to worry about getting countries to say "yes". You don't have to worry about them saying "no" (unless it's an "Oh HELL no" from a powerful one), because their recourse is just declining to take part in it. Kind of like what France seems to be doing now. France now can call on nobody to act until the U.N. addresses it, and that argument may carry weight. Absent that, the countries who want to act would just ignore France and act.

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Dont know if this has been posted yet, but here are some great images from Libya and its environs. I'm actually amazed at the speed with which we've got pictures from inside Libya since western journalists were scarce on the ground till a few days ago. Of course, there must have been journos from other countries in place.

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A bit about Libyan assets that Gaddafi has (some) control over, Libyan Investment Authority apparently controls assets of approximately $ 70 billion.

Of course, lots of this may be subject to freezing in various countries, and much of the rest is probably not that easily liquidated, particularly now. Still, for bargain prices, I'm sure the colonel could find some willing buyers.

In any case, he is sure to have squirreled away several billion dollars elsewhere as well...

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An interesting map.

A rather strange day in Libya. I'm not sure has a lot happened. Saif Gaddafi is going around pretending nothing awry has happened and talks are been held with the opposition. An interesting article here on him and his western contacts.

Apparently the Ex-Justice minister has lead the formation of an interim government based in Benghazi.

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An interesting map.

A rather strange day in Libya. I'm not sure has a lot happened. Saif Gaddafi is going around pretending nothing awry has happened and talks are been held with the opposition. An interesting article here on him and his western contacts.

Apparently the Ex-Justice minister has lead the formation of an interim government based in Benghazi.

It might be my inner fantasy geek pushing through, but I have a fondness for those kind of maps...

Saif being less than the shiny democratic hope is not terribly surprising. People had hopes for Bashar Assad too.

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Today's Libya news:

UN security council voted to impose assets freezes on Gaddafi and his family, and travel bans on senior officials too, and unanimously voted to refer the matter to the international criminal court for investigation.

Historic moment in some sense.

They are hoping this will cause Gaddafi's senior aides to think twice and refuse to participate further in putting down the uprisings - the same as the academic was hoping in his article. I really hope so.

------

My worry is that because the protesters are becoming armed and threatening the infrastructure of Tripoli, and Gaddafi seems to have a lot of very loyal supporters there, they will feel they are acting in self-defence now, and won't see themselves as the aggressors. I know it's easy for us to dismiss Gaddafi as an evil villain, but nothing in life is black and white, and he has improved quality of life for some people as much as he made it worse for others, and I'm sure some people see good personal qualities in him (he's probably an affectionate father etc., and all this singing and dancing and blowing kisses is not what you associate with a dictator ;-) so I can see why people might find it hard to take a step away and question what they have been indoctrinated with all their lives). Added to that, people who have a good living and want to be sure they are living in a stable country, or prefer 'the devil you know'.

I really do hope Gaddaffi's senior aides and militia walk away from him, so that changes can be made in a peaceful way, but I can also see the psychological obstacles.

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FLoW, KAH, thanks for information I didn't know. Cyrano, Galactus, good to follow along with you too and read your posts.

Pod - thanks for linking the map. My reaction is as KAH's.

Samalander - :o Someone got that up fast, and it shows.

Something I didn't know until today: there have been two days of protests in Oman asking for reforms (a dictatorship which was given help by the UK to overthrow the previous dictatorship - familiar story there). Police have been using tear-gas on the protesters. That's probably about my sum of knowledge about Oman.

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Something I didn't know until today: there have been two days of protests in Oman asking for reforms (a dictatorship which was given help by the UK to overthrow the previous dictatorship - familiar story there). Police have been using tear-gas on the protesters. That's probably about my sum of knowledge about Oman.

A brief overview over the region I read a few weeks ago classified Oman as one of the least likely candidates for revolt, as the country is quite prosperous. Seems that was a bad call.

The Sultan has already reshaped his cabinet, but protests are ongoing, apparently with several fatalities.

Can't find much about protests in China. Reporters who filmed it were arrested under the pretense that there were new regulations for filming permits and their recorded material erased. Anybody know more?

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Can't find much about protests in China. Reporters who filmed it were arrested under the pretense that there were new regulations for filming permits and their recorded material erased. Anybody know more?

Jasmine protests? Sure there were a few scattered protests where journalists outnumbered the posers. Even the usa ambassador came to one and run away as soon as he was identified by some onlookers.

edited to add: some more about fake reporting about china here

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All still on edge in Libya. The protestors control many of the cities in the west as well as the east but Gaddafi forces are apparently outside Misrata and Zawiya.

Very interesting to see that China said they decided to apply sanctions because of concern for their people in Libya.

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Seems I was probably way, way off on my prediction of how far the protests will go. However there is a reason for that, and I said it when I first began, I'm only an amateur at foreign affairs analysis, domestic affairs are my thing. Still I do take comfort in that a lot of experts held similar positions; and also the fact of course that this will (probably) lead to better lives for a lot of people. I've expressed my autocratic leanings before, but not for this kind, these rulers just suck and the people deserve their shot at democracy, and see if they like it.

The general consensus from experts interviewed by the New York Times, as shown over articles for the past several days, is that these protests are limited, it will not be a worldwide thing. In the former Soviet states, with their aging populations, memories of the chaos of the 1990s, and the fact that for most life is in fact better then it was with Soviets (applies to Russia and Eastern Europe only, not the 'stans), protests will probably not take hold. A recent poll in Russia, one that the Russian government had nothing to do, shows that people still prefer 'Order' to 'Freedom' by a 56 to 23 margin. That is way down from where it was in 2000, but it sill would have a way to go before change happens. In China, unless the system completely fails, the consensus also seems to be that nothing major will happen. (and interesting article gladius about reporting from there). The topic of sub-Saharan Africa, as always, was ignored; I however would be surprised if much happened there. But I've been continously surprised for about 3 weeks now, so that would be nothing new.

No matter which side 'wins' in Libya though, I am very worried about its future. As others have mentioned, there are no real institutions there anymore, no basis to form a new government on. Gaddafi has spent 40 years keeping the tribes angry at each other as well. Things could get very bad. And if Gaddafi manages to hang on and retake control? Holy shit, I shudder to think at how bloody the reprisals will be.

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And if Gaddafi manages to hang on and retake control? Holy shit, I shudder to think at how bloody the reprisals will be.

Sounds like there are more attacks on Misrata and Zawiya (on either side of Tripoli) coming from the pro-Gaddafi forces also.

The general consensus from experts interviewed by the New York Times, as shown over articles for the past several days, is that these protests are limited, it will not be a worldwide thing. In the former Soviet states, with their aging populations, memories of the chaos of the 1990s, and the fact that for most life is in fact better then it was with Soviets (applies to Russia and Eastern Europe only, not the 'stans), protests will probably not take hold.

No protests in Eastern Europe? I hope they weren't trying to portray that as a big revelation. :)

The PM in Tunisia has resigned after more protests in Tunisia. A Ben Ali stalwarth. I had been a little worried about how the government there was blaming Ben Ali loyalists for some of the violence there recently. Sounded like an excuse to attack protestors. But who knows for sure. Hopefully things will stabilise there again after a tough couple of days.

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Its all over for Gaddafi:

Galyna Kolotnytska arrived in Kiev early Sunday on a Ukrainian defence ministry aircraft that evacuated 185 people from the country, Ukraine's Segodnya newspaper reported.

Kolotnytska, 38, was described in US diplomatic cables released by WikiLeaks in December as a "voluptuous blonde" that acted as one of the eccentric Libyan leader's closest confidantes and possible lover.

His nurse/possible lover has also left the building.

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The Libyan situation could have been a whole lot worse than it is right now if Libya had not abandoned its nuclear and chemical weapons programs in 2003.

Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi's apparent decision to come clean on his secret nuclear-weapons program could prove to be a major achievement in the world's bid to rein in rogue nuclear nations. But it has also shown how far there still is to go. Since 1980, inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have visited Libya, a signatory of the 1970 Nonproliferation Treaty, and routinely reported that they found no evidence of a nuclear-weapons program, although they did stress that they could not guarantee their information was complete. Last week IAEA inspectors visited nine nuclear sites in Libya, four of which the agency hadn't even known existed until then--and were surprised to find ongoing efforts to build the centrifuge technology required to produce fuel for nuclear weapons.

Read more: http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,993048,00.html#ixzz1FBv4LQVY

Even the timeline offered by the guy whose agency missed the boat is ominous:

ElBaradei indicated that his "gut feeling" was Libya was about three to seven years away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon.

http://articles.cnn.com/2003-12-29/world/libya.nuclear_1_nuclear-weapon-nuclear-program-iaea?_s=PM:WORLD

So according to that, we'd have likely have had a nuclear armed Gaddhafi right now. Yikes.

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I think it's rather hilarious that Gaddafi's cronies were taking foreign journalists into Zawiya to show that it was under Gaddafi's control, only to be met by the old Libyan tricolor flying from rebel hands in the city. True Comical Ali moment.

Tripoli seems to be safely under Gaddafi's control for the moment, however.

For a post-Gaddafi aftermath, things could go either way. Gaddafi has set the tribes against eachother, which could make civil war continue after his departure. OTOH, the revolution may have become a formative experience of the rebel Libyans, creating more of a national feeling. We can only hope...

It is no doubt that the Cyrenaicans in the east are rebelling in part because the region has been systematically neglected by Gaddafi. Infrastructure is almost invariably tied to the oil industry, health care and education has been left to rot for decades there. They say lots of rebel graffiti slogans are wrongly spelled due to education, for instance.

Also, there's going to be some anger against foreigners - the West because it's prioritizing oil and order before human rights and suchlike, black Africans are already being targetted wholesale because of Gaddafi's mercenaries.

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Another feature of the many uprisings of the Middle East is the relatively young age of those protesting. Many, many of these countries' demographic age distributions are very pyramid, with lots and lots of dissatisfied young people at the bottom, whereas the geriatric leaders like Mubarak, Gaddafi and Ben Ali have been mocking them for this very fact.

But now the joke is on them...

In Libya, for instance, there's the so-called Libyan Youth Movement arising

http://www.facebook.com/pages/Libyan-Youth-Movement/133738650025293

And this guy, although I do not know if he's affiliated with them, I added him for some comic relief (cited from BBC);

1725 Commenting on the cash the regime is handing out to Libyan people, Libyan Dude tweets: "Love it, my aunt says she went, took the 500LYD [Libyan Dinar], and went to buy medicines and food for all the neighbours.. LOL at Gaddafi's bribe money."

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