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Middle East Uprising thread 7


Horza

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From the Grauniad:

Voting for the resolution

Permanent members: United States, Britain, France

Non-permanent members:: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Colombia, Gabon, Lebanon, Nigeria, Portugal, South Africa

Abstentions

Permanent members: Russia, China

Non-permanent members: Germany, Brazil, India

But it is the Guardian, so take that for what it's worth...

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So it looks like late Friday at the earliest before air strikes commence. It'll be interesting to see what the Americans do, whether they do hang back or if they decide to take a leading role. The Americans joining in would hugely expand the number of Libyan military targets that could be taken out on the first day, but at the same time the Americans really do seem to be wanting to hang back as much as possible.

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Hmmm, do you think this resolution is going to make the egyptians more likely to intervene?

It seems more likely if they're not going to be left holding the bag now at least the UK and France would be involved.

Wow I'm surprised by this turn of events. An Anglo-French intervention in Africa, how old school.

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So we're getting an Anglo-French intervention with support from some Arab nations and the US if Obama feels it's going well.

That's a neat trick - I do hope Cameron and Obama never play poker, we'd end up losing Suffolk.

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My uninformed guess would be that we were waiting to see whether the rebels would win. Now that's apparent they will lose without support, support they will have. We got Russia and China to abstain, and I'd guess whatever persuasion that required didn't happen in an hour or two.

U.S. officials said the United States has concluded a "no-fly" zone should be adopted and other measures that go well beyond a no-fly zone should be taken, including air strikes against Libyan tanks and heavy artillery.

Was being said before the resolution passed.

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Abstentions, pah, weak sauce from those non-permanent members. Sure Russia and China kinda had to abstain because otherwise they'd be excercising veto, right? But the non-permanent members should have had to stones to say NO for real rather than pussying out with a Clayton's no.

I'm somewhat torn by this decision. On the one hand the Gadaffi regime has been prety ruthless, if reports coming out of Libya are to be believed, and so I want to see loss of civilian life ended ASAP. On the other hand it's a pretty serious move to step in to an internal matter where the "recognised" government is trying to quell an uprising by a rebelious group. It's a slippery slope, what's the reason for the international community to step in militarily here, but not in other instances? It seems to be significantly influenced by the fact that the heavy hitters in the UN don't like Gadaffi and just want to see him gone. Which is awfully close to the whole Saddam thing. And then there's the whole matter of when there are serious cross border conflicts the heavy hitters prevent the UN from passing this sort of resolution, depending on who is involved.

I just hope Gadaffi still retains enough rationality to see that he's achieved a decent level of military superiority in the last week or so and now he has a reasonable negotiating position to call a ceasefire and start talking to the rebels about achieving a lasting resolution.

I also hope the rebels don't see this as an opportunity to go on the counter offensive. If all the no-fly zone resolution achieves is a leveling of the playing field for the conflict to continue in a less one-sided manner I think it's a pretty ill conceived move.

I wonder if the US was looking to have Russia or China bail them out, but they decided not to in order to force the US's hand in this. Yet more money being spent on military action in the middle east while the US is running deficits. I guess at least the US can insist on the world footing more of the bill for this one.

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too little, too late. Can't wait a month to make a decision. The rebels have already lost.

That rather depends on how much those supporting this are willing to do, it could get very unpleasant for pro Gaddafi forces. If I was a mercenary in Libya I'd be taking this opportunity to go home. I think it's entirely possible that the rebels just won.

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It seems to be significantly influenced by the fact that the heavy hitters in the UN don't like Gadaffi and just want to see him gone. Which is awfully close to the whole Saddam thing. And then there's the whole matter of when there are serious cross border conflicts the heavy hitters prevent the UN from passing this sort of resolution, depending on who is involved.

The big difference wrt Iraq is that the UN didn't support the US. The Arab League didn't support the US either.

It's a slippery slope, what's the reason for the international community to step in militarily here, but not in other instances?

Couldn't you turn the argument around? Maybe the international community should step in in other instances? I never liked the argument that its all or nothing. It sounded a bit silly to me.

I just hope Gadaffi still retains enough rationality to see that he's achieved a decent level of military superiority in the last week or so and now he has a reasonable negotiating position to call a ceasefire and start talking to the rebels about achieving a lasting resolution.

I can't see how the rebels could accept him staying in power.

I wonder if the US was looking to have Russia or China bail them out, but they decided not to in order to force the US's hand in this. Yet more money being spent on military action in the middle east while the US is running deficits. I guess at least the US can insist on the world footing more of the bill for this one.

Well, the US is not the main player in this. So you can easily argue that they have played a very astute game. And i'm sure they knew what Russia and China were going to do. These countries don't do things for spite.

too little, too late. Can't wait a month to make a decision. The rebels have already lost.

If this was just a NFZ, you may be right but this is more than that. Libya's military isn't that great. They've struggled this far to beat some poorly armed and organised rebels.

More importantly, this will be a huge boost for morale.

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