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Horus Ex Machina

Game of Thrones is out-trending it's competitors.

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Considering the major amount of buzz that our shared interest, GoTs has generated, and in the interest of gauging the potential success of the show, I ran a Google Trends on GoTs and compared it to it's major premium network competitors Camelot, and The Borgias, as well as it's two HBO network-mates the similarly pricey Boardwalk Empire, and the longer-running True-Blood. According to Google, it's been trending above everything else on average since the beginning of the year. The Borgias seems to be just beginning it's heavy push, but Camelot spiked recently and has since fallen back to the level of GoTs.

GoTs seems to trend particularly well in English-speaking markets; non-HBO products seem very non-existent in the UK, am I reading that correctly? GoTs averaged higher trends in every major country except Australia. Excluding Camelot's brief, but massive, spike in interest, True-Blood seems to be of the next highest interest which puts GoTs in good company to say the least. So I wonder how much this means? It definitely seems to point to a strong opening, at least, for our beloved series. So they'll have a decent chance to build a strong viewer base. Thoughts?

Here are the graphs for 2011 as a whole.

And here it is adjusted for just the last 30 days.

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I can only add that I've had visitors from 83 countries in the last month. Pretty much the entire world except for Africa...

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I can only add that I've had visitors from 83 countries in the last month. Pretty much the entire world except for Africa...

I guess that I'll have to represent for Africa. :smug:

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I compared True Blood, The Walking Dead, and Game of Thrones for the past 12 months. Overall True Blood trends the highest, but The Walking Dead has the highest spikes in October 2010. It premiered with 5.3 million viewers. Game of Thrones has a LOT to go if you correlate the trending and ratings.

US GOOGLE TRENDS PAST 12 MONTHS

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I compared True Blood, The Walking Dead, and Game of Thrones for the past 12 months. Overall True Blood trends the highest, but The Walking Dead has the highest spikes in October 2010. It premiered with 5.3 million viewers. Game of Thrones has a LOT to go if you correlate the trending and ratings.

US GOOGLE TRENDS PAST 12 MONTHS

I stayed away from going back 12 months in my sample since True Blood (and Walking Dead) was actually in-season during that time and it would be difficult for any show that is in pre-production to gain a fair correllation. Comparing the shows while between seasons or in pre-production seemed to give a somewhat even gauge of casual interest. Boardwalk Empire, being in the same stage of production, on the same network, and at a similar cost seemed the most direct comparison. However, buzz will always be high in the eve before a premiere. True Blood has maintained high buzz after several seasons, so that's something.

But I'm trying to stay away from comparing trends dealing with shows that were in-season, since naturally they'll trend the highest. Such a comparison won't be accurate until GoTs begins it's season in April. I also wanted to avoid comparisons with non-premium ad-based cable networks since their parameters for cancellations and ratings run along a different business model than the premium subscription-based channels. However, limiting things to the US market might be wise. The Camelot spike, though, remains singularly curious in all of the searches.

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Camelot aired the first episode Feb 25 after the Spartacus finale. That's probably why it spiked.

Oh,... I wonder if it's on Netflix yet. Thanks for that bit of info.

Adding one more thing, it is interesting to compare where Walking Dead and GoTs each trend right before their respective premieres. That's a bit more apples to apples, but of course you have to consider HBO's customer-base. Still the numbers point to a pretty sizeable premiere.

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So long as we're comparing comparisons... I think the better comparison is AGoT to True Blood. I don't particularly care how AGoT compares to shows on other networks. I care whether AGoT does well enough to go for multiple seasons. I want to see Arya as the Ghost of Harrenhall, Gregor vs. Oberyn, and the battle at the Fist. I want to see the Red Wedding, dammit.

So the best comparison is to a show that's gone four seasons, like True Blood. While I agree it's unfair to compare AGoT to True Blood while True Blood was airing, it's nice to know what targets AGoT might have to hit along the way. What's important in my mind is that AGoT is out-trending True Blood before True Blood's release (see chart) *and* between seasons of True Blood. If AGoT can continue to generate this level of interest between seasons, *and* match or exceed True Blood's interest during the season, then there's hope for the future... especially when those numbers are compared to HBO shows that have gone further (like The Sopranos and The Wire).

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Going with soley HBO network shows I ran Entourage and BWE along with TB & GoTs for 2011 and then the alltime numbers.

Another interesting set of trends is adding Deadwood and Rome to the mix. Deadwood didn't make much of a mark, but Rome had a huge spike for both seasons. Not much of a buildup however, it simply took off immediately buzz-wise.

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