The R+L=J thread, part XI

[Glenndo]

Yeah, they wouldn't. I was talking only from the theory of "If everyone actually cared about that stuff...", but it's pretty clear in the story they don't. He'd have to get an army behind him, whether Dany's or someone elses, and the only army he's like to have would require the leader of that group stating that they want Jon to be king and handing it over (i.e., Dany totally deciding he's the rightful heir and so she's going to give up her claim to the throne...seems doubtful to me).

This is my first post ever. I have always read Jon's story as a mimic of Aemon's. Three times Aemon had a chance to be king, and three times he refused.

Jon - first chance - being raised to a Stark by Stannis and taking over Winterfell and the North: refused.

- second chance - someday discovering he has been named heir to Robb and made a Stark, can become King of the North: will refuse.

- third chance - learning he is the heir of Rhaegar Targaryan with the most legitimate claim to the Iron Throne: will refuse.

Perhaps I'm wrong but Jon seems like the only character in the books that could manage to not break under all that temptation.

[Raventhal]

Likely Ned doesn't know one way or another whether R + L = consensual. Neds sister likely tells him to protect the baby and it being obvious that his nephew is Targaryen. If you don't think that a Targaryen that's half Stark, the ruling house of the north, wouldn't be an attractive heir in the GoT or on his own, bastard or not, you are crazy.

If Ned had no proof that Lyanna was raped or not, Robert's going to assume that she was for pride alone. That alone would cause tension. His parentage is going to cause tensions in the realm as well and may be even be dangerous(assassins). I could see where Robert would worry that one day Jon would come to take his throne back and pro-Targaryen people would be conspiring against him with Jon like they do with Dany. Not only that to consider how pro-Stark the north is I could see them supporting Jon as well.

Jon would have been one baby that swirled in controversy and conspiracy.

[Icebreaker]

Hey guys!

Long time fan here, so I decided to finally register and state my opinion about this theory.

I think it is quite believable. The description is that Ned found his sister in a bed of blood, if I recall correctly. I somehow cannot but imagine painful childbirth here, the one which ended badly. Second, three of the Kingsguard were there, including Gerold Hightower, the Lord Commander, and Arthur Dayne. Why were they there? We know for a fact that the job of the Kingsguard is to protect those of the royal blood. IMO, only the potential baby of Crown Prince Rhaegar would meet this criteria, as Lyianna wasn't his legal wife.

Then, we have Ned who never clearly stated that Jon is his son, correct? He said that he was of his blood, but not explicitly his. Besides, it doesn't fit with his character that he cheated on his wife, with him being so honorable and dutiful.

So that's why I believe this theory will prove true. If not, I'll be happy to see what Martin has in store for us, because I can't find any other plausible theories which would work. There it is, my 2 cents on this matter. Rant on !

[LadyMary]

Hey guys!

Long time fan here, so I decided to finally register and state my opinion about this theory.

I think it is quite believable. The description is that Ned found his sister in a bed of blood, if I recall correctly. I somehow cannot but imagine painful childbirth here, the one which ended badly. Second, three of the Kingsguard were there, including Gerold Hightower, the Lord Commander, and Arthur Dayne. Why were they there? We know for a fact that the job of the Kingsguard is to protect those of the royal blood. IMO, only the potential baby of Crown Prince Rhaegar would meet this criteria, as Lyianna wasn't his legal wife.

Then, we have Ned who never clearly stated that Jon is his son, correct? He said that he was of his blood, but not explicitly his. Besides, it doesn't fit with his character that he cheated on his wife, with him being so honorable and dutiful.

So that's why I believe this theory will prove true. If not, I'll be happy to see what Martin has in store for us, because I can't find any other plausible theories which would work. There it is, my 2 cents on this matter. Rant on !

I concur Icebreaker. When I first read the theory I thought...what? But reading the little hints in the text (with some cleverly placed red herrings) it really seems the best theory. Since the producers of Game of Thrones apparently figured it out based on the evidence in the first 4 books, Jon's mother can't be some not yet introduced woman. There are several people who name Wylla and several who speculate it's Ashara, but the hints are screaming Lyanna. The "bed of blood" or "bloody bed" is related to childbirth in this series.

[KyleLitke]

This is my first post ever. I have always read Jon's story as a mimic of Aemon's. Three times Aemon had a chance to be king, and three times he refused.

Jon - first chance - being raised to a Stark by Stannis and taking over Winterfell and the North: refused.

- second chance - someday discovering he has been named heir to Robb and made a Stark, can become King of the North: will refuse.

- third chance - learning he is the heir of Rhaegar Targaryan with the most legitimate claim to the Iron Throne: will refuse.

Perhaps I'm wrong but Jon seems like the only character in the books that could manage to not break under all that temptation.

That's a good point and I could definitely see it unfolding that way.

Welcome to the boards by the way!

[nothatso]

This is my first post ever. I have always read Jon's story as a mimic of Aemon's. Three times Aemon had a chance to be king, and three times he refused.

Jon - first chance - being raised to a Stark by Stannis and taking over Winterfell and the North: refused.

- second chance - someday discovering he has been named heir to Robb and made a Stark, can become King of the North: will refuse.

- third chance - learning he is the heir of Rhaegar Targaryan with the most legitimate claim to the Iron Throne: will refuse.

Perhaps I'm wrong but Jon seems like the only character in the books that could manage to not break under all that temptation.

The first isn't really becoming king, but either way he's already had his share of chances to leave as well. There was the night he almost left to join Robb, as well as the temptation to stay with Ygritte and the wildlings.

[Tryggvason]

While I find the theory about Jon quite believable ... I really hope its not true! I hope its just a plot of Martins to screw with our minds! Kinda like him to stay Neds whiny bastard :D

[jellydonut]

Hey guys.

So here I was reading the books, staying well away from the forums and websites before I had finished them.

I thought I was being clever, thinking that it wasn't his own bastard Ned brought back north at all. And here there are 11 threads about the subject!

I realize that by this point everything will have been said ten times already, I just want to get my thoughts out of my head through my fingertips. :P

- Lyanna being 'kidnapped' for no good reason?

- Ned, ever stoic and honorable, suddenly fathering a bastard? Taking care afterward to not confide in *anyone* about any details of it.

- Raising the child in his own home, and his castle, against custom, which Ned seems to respect otherwise. (I somehow doubt he cares much for what the Freys or the Dornish do)

It's a bit strange he would look so much a Stark, though. Rhaegar, with his silvery blonde hair and purple (?!) eyes surely must have left a trace.

Ignoring that.. I believe R+L=J, and that it'll probably end tragically, just like everything else seems to do in this series. ^_^

[Raventhal]

Hey guys.

So here I was reading the books, staying well away from the forums and websites before I had finished them.

I thought I was being clever, thinking that it wasn't his own bastard Ned brought back north at all. And here there are 11 threads about the subject!

I realize that by this point everything will have been said ten times already, I just want to get my thoughts out of my head through my fingertips. :P

- Lyanna being 'kidnapped' for no good reason?

- Ned, ever stoic and honorable, suddenly fathering a bastard? Taking care afterward to not confide in *anyone* about any details of it.

- Raising the child in his own home, and his castle, against custom, which Ned seems to respect otherwise. (I somehow doubt he cares much for what the Freys or the Dornish do)

It's a bit strange he would look so much a Stark, though. Rhaegar, with his silvery blonde hair and purple (?!) eyes surely must have left a trace.

Ignoring that.. I believe R+L=J, and that it'll probably end tragically, just like everything else seems to do in this series. ^_^

Actually, those are likely regressive traits that are kept by close marriages between the Targs. Though in this book the royal/nobile lines seem to have dominate traits that survive the generations like Lannisters blond hair and green eyes. Like cartoons where both parents look a like for generations. It's not that far fetched considering my grandfather, father, me, son all have a similar look.

[Maestress Sand]

Though in the book the royal/noble lines seem to have dominate traits that last survive the generations like Lannisters blond hair and green eyes.

Just a side note, the Lannisters are also somewhat inbred, although not as bad as the Targs (Joanna and Tywin were first cousins, not to mention Cersei's brood). Plus, the Westerlands are supposed to have a pretty high Andal population compared to other regions. Inbreeding increases expression of regressive traits, and some ethnic groups have increased prevalence of regressive traits vs other groups (Andals).

[Masha]

Hey guys.

So here I was reading the books, staying well away from the forums and websites before I had finished them.

I thought I was being clever, thinking that it wasn't his own bastard Ned brought back north at all. And here there are 11 threads about the subject!

I realize that by this point everything will have been said ten times already, I just want to get my thoughts out of my head through my fingertips. :P

- Lyanna being 'kidnapped' for no good reason?

- Ned, ever stoic and honorable, suddenly fathering a bastard? Taking care afterward to not confide in *anyone* about any details of it.

- Raising the child in his own home, and his castle, against custom, which Ned seems to respect otherwise. (I somehow doubt he cares much for what the Freys or the Dornish do)

It's a bit strange he would look so much a Stark, though. Rhaegar, with his silvery blonde hair and purple (?!) eyes surely must have left a trace.

Ignoring that.. I believe R+L=J, and that it'll probably end tragically, just like everything else seems to do in this series. ^_^

Jon might not look like Rhaegar but his character is very similar and not like Ned at all other than his looks, in sense that he is honorable to a fault, with no eye for strategy..

[Tall Tyrion Lannister!]

Did the Kids Rhaegar have with Elia have the same features as Rhaegar did? Maybe the only way you could keep the silvery hair and eyes would be to marry within the family.Also I don't recall us every having a distint picture of what Rhaegar looked like,so Jon could not have his hair or eyes but have simular facial features.

[FacelessJoe]

Did the Kids Rhaegar have with Elia have the same features as Rhaegar did? Maybe the only way you could keep the silvery hair and eyes would be to marry within the family.Also I don't recall us every having a distint picture of what Rhaegar looked like,so Jon could not have his hair or eyes but have simular facial features.

I Belive Rhaenys(?) had dornish features and baby Aegon Targ features

[Été]

Baelor Breakspear also favoured his Dornish mother, though the rest of his siblings had their father's Targ look.

Just a side note, the Lannisters are also somewhat inbred, although not as bad as the Targs (Joanna and Tywin were first cousins, not to mention Cersei's brood). Plus, the Westerlands are supposed to have a pretty high Andal population compared to other regions. Inbreeding increases expression of regressive traits, and some ethnic groups have increased prevalence of regressive traits vs other groups (Andals).

What makes you say the Westerlands are particularly inbred? I'm not saying you're wrong but I haven't come across that before.

Tywin Lannister married a cousin, but apart from that there's no evidence the rest of the family married within a few degrees of consanguinity, so it's hard to say if the Lannister look is actually recessive. Jaime and Cersei's kids are obviously pure Lannister, but Jaime's first cousins Lancel and Tyrek are blond and green-eyed despite having non-Lannister mothers; Cleos Frey is equally related but has brown hair. It just depends.

The Baratheons seem to have freakishly dominant traits, but most families have a mixed picture phenotypically, e.g. Ned and Cat's kids.

[Galen M]

I believe that, IRL, blonde hair is recessive, so two blondes will always yield a blonde child. As for GRRM genetics, I think that Cleos has brown hair since his last name is not Lannister (or, simply, because Freys have the dominant trait).

[Nine of Spades]

This is my first post ever. I have always read Jon's story as a mimic of Aemon's. Three times Aemon had a chance to be king, and three times he refused.

Jon - first chance - being raised to a Stark by Stannis and taking over Winterfell and the North: refused.

- second chance - someday discovering he has been named heir to Robb and made a Stark, can become King of the North: will refuse.

- third chance - learning he is the heir of Rhaegar Targaryan with the most legitimate claim to the Iron Throne: will refuse.

Perhaps I'm wrong but Jon seems like the only character in the books that could manage to not break under all that temptation.

Jon has already been tempted to leave the watch 3 times:

First at Ned's death (revenge)

Second with Ygritte (love/lust)

Third with Stannis's offer of winterfell (glory)

So by that figuring, hes done with temptations (and was only made lord commander after the third). For me, it seems important that he was committed to the watch for good before being named lord commander. So I dont see R+L as making much sense as something to make him want to leave again.

[zmflavius]

Jon has already been tempted to leave the watch 3 times:

First at Ned's death (revenge)

Second with Ygritte (love/lust)

Third with Stannis's offer of winterfell (glory)

So by that figuring, hes done with temptations (and was only made lord commander after the third). For me, it seems important that he was committed to the watch for good before being named lord commander. So I dont see R+L as making much sense as something to make him want to leave again.

You know, I just noticed,

Does anyone else think there's a connection between blood/love/gold and Jon's temptations to leave the watch and "betray" his honor?

Ned's Death - Blood

Ygritte - Love

Winterfell - Gold (Ok, this one is kind of a stretch)

I admit there are problems with the order they occur in, but I think it's worth noting.

[Luin]

Jon has already been tempted to leave the watch 3 times:

First at Ned's death (revenge)

Second with Ygritte (love/lust)

Third with Stannis's offer of winterfell (glory)

So by that figuring, hes done with temptations (and was only made lord commander after the third). For me, it seems important that he was committed to the watch for good before being named lord commander. So I dont see R+L as making much sense as something to make him want to leave again.

I think that is the point, Jon lost his claim by joining up, but it doesn't change who he was and he would have very different feelings about Dany's army if he thought her claim was just or not. Aemon makes it clear to Jon that the battle of the trident and sack of kings landing hurt him deeply. Jon and Aemon would also be perfect for negotiating a settlement between Stannis and Dany if he is a Targeryan and Stark. Finally Dany might wave the order for Jon to stay celibate in order to get an heir if she wins.

Of course there is also ability to help Stannis, if he and Aemon help negotiate a settlement and Dany then brings over an unexpected overwhelming number of newly enlisted Dothraki allies who rape pillage and burn on a large scale Jon might see it as a violation of the agreement and send out a special decree that his rights are completely given up in favor of Stannis. Of course at the moment Stannis has been partially broken we don't know what the next book will bring for him.

[Masha]

Jon has already been tempted to leave the watch 3 times:

First at Ned's death (revenge)

Second with Ygritte (love/lust)

Third with Stannis's offer of winterfell (glory)

So by that figuring, hes done with temptations (and was only made lord commander after the third). For me, it seems important that he was committed to the watch for good before being named lord commander. So I dont see R+L as making much sense as something to make him want to leave again.

There is also a huge speculation about something happening to the wall, as several characters, most importantly Dany, foresee/foreshadow the Others south of the Wall perhaps as far as Trident. Wall has certain magic powers that prevent other magics, such as Coldhands and we assume the Others crossing it. Only way for them to go south is for something happen to the Wall. And if something happens to the Wall, the Night Watch oaths might be renedered null and void.

[William The Lion]

There is also a huge speculation about something happening to the wall, as several characters, most importantly Dany, foresee/foreshadow the Others south of the Wall perhaps as far as Trident. Wall has certain magic powers that prevent other magics, such as Coldhands and we assume the Others crossing it. Only way for them to go south is for something happen to the Wall. And if something happens to the Wall, the Night Watch oaths might be renedered null and void.

THere is a fairly logical "stereotypical happy end" outcome for the whole series, analogous (for the lack of better word) to the Lord Of the Rings. THe civil war will continue to the exhaustion of all combatting sides, while the Others' threat will become ever more present. The main surviviving characters have no other option than to put aside their differences ("the last alliance of man and elves marched againsg the armies of Mordor and on the slopes of Mount Doom they fought for freedom of Middle Earth"). SO Dany brings her three dragons in, Bran will fly one of them as he always was eager to fly, and Jon the other. AFter a major epic battle where a few disposable remaining heroes may heroically perish, the Others are destroyed. THe spring comes, and the Wall melts away as there is no need for it anymore. The remaining heroes happily intermarry (Dany marries Jon as he is free of the oath as there is no Wall anymore), to keep the line blood reasonably pure or something like that. THey jointly sit on the Iron Throne to a great benefit of anyone else. Additional details for the remaining heroes can be worked out, such as Tyrion becoming a Hand, Aria a High Septon, or something like that.

THis is somewhat of a farly tale. But let's look at the books in general. For instance in another thread on this board there is a long discussion about Lyanne affair and what were the motivations for the resulting conflict and getting people killed and war started, while the whole thing could have been simply a misunderstanding and lack of communication, etc. THis is quite true, and in a frame of what I oftren call "a French movie syndrome" the whole R+L affair could have been laughed off by all houses and ended in a very reasonable arrangment and certainly no war. But the books often emphasize dark tendencies of human nature of those in power, where arrogance and former grievances lead to revenge and the whole affair becoming blown out of proportion and spinning out of control with terrible repercussions for everybody.

My point is that GRRM uses these dark tendencies (and availavility of additional characters) to spice things up and turn the situaiton upside down contrary to what may appear to be logical.

In the R+L affair there very well may be some element that we do not know. For instance, who may reveal Jon's true identity and the R+L affair details? There may be some "secret testament" composed by somebody like Ned that will be suddenly found in book 7. THere of course is Howland who was the other survivor of the Tower of Joy battle and who saw the newborn Jon (but who may not be told the details of the R+L story). THere is also Varys simply by virtue of him being a head of secret police and essentially knowing everything that was said and done(however, to my surprise I have not seen any indication of Varys ever hinting that he knew Jon to be anyone else than Ned's bastard. But Varys may simply pretend ignorance as the knowledge of availability of "Long lost Last King of Gondor" is a very strong card in the "game of thrones").