House Stokeworth Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Hoo boy.1) Trying to lynch people leads to discussion. Discussion leads to innocents winning. No discussion leads to killers winning.2) Odd/even rule only applies in the absence of good roles, modkills, etc. Much better to ignore it until the game gets smaller.Why am I already tired of explaining this when I haven't played this game for years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Baratheon Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 @ Miss Marple: Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 *bakes Wonder Woman some cookies* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Stokeworth Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 I deny your Nambly cookies. They've probably got barbs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Targaryen Posted May 16, 2011 Author Share Posted May 16, 2011 It is day 1.14 players remain: Edward., Ernst Blofeld, Garfield, Humpty Dumpty, Igor, Joseph Starlin, Krakatoa, Miss Marple, Puff the Magic Dragon, Showgirl Barbie, Simba, Sooty, The mummy, Wonder Woman.8 votes are needed for a conviction or 7 to go to night.1 vote for Edward. (Miss Marple)1 vote for Showgirl Barbie (Edward.)1 vote for Sooty (Wonder Woman)1 vote for Night (Showgirl Barbie)10 players have not voted: Ernst Blofeld, Garfield, Humpty Dumpty, Igor, Joseph Starlin, Krakatoa, Puff the Magic Dragon, Simba, Sooty, The mummy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 @ Miss Marple: Nope.Obviously I am just a noob who doesn't know a thing. I bow to your superior knowledge.I deny your Nambly cookies. They've probably got barbs in.I never could resist eating my own cookies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Thorne Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Interesting, I wonder why people vote so quickly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Interesting, I wonder why people vote so quickly?It is better than sitting around staring at each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Thorne Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 It is better than sitting around staring at each other So true Miss Marple!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Baratheon Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Odd-even rule is not about LyLo. It's general.In assumption that Doc will fail in healing (which happens in most cases)we have a simulation:(two wolves we lynch every day, scums are smart so very likely misslynches will going to occur)14 players: humans win 0.26412 players: humans win 0.21510 players: humans win 0.1578 players: humans win 0.083(two wolves we skip the first lynch, then lynch every day, scums are smart so very likely misslynches will going to occur)13 players: humans win 0.35211 players: humans win 0.2999 players: humans win 0.2297 players: humans win 0.133So you are saying that we can switch from even to add just before the LyLo and that will bring a better chance. Nope. That's not gonna work. This way we gonna be at 5 players LyLo rather than 3 players LyLo. And thats a huge difference.Explanation: our win chances are the sum of all successful lynch chances at each day phase. The only way to maximise this sum is to switch from even to odd as soon as possible. Clearly we want to come for 3 players lylo rather than 5. So we should maximize our chances at each day from early on. We should skip today's lynch to keep playing longer. Today we have 0 information and it takes consensus of 8/14 players to lycnh someone. Obviously it will result in misslynch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Baratheon Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Also, It seems we have a 3 FMs, so even more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Baratheon Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 discuss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Baratheon Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Well, it's rather 2 FMs and Symp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Also, It seems we have a 3 FMs, so even more so.Why would you think this? There is no way 3FM is balancedI was one of the biggest fighters against lynching on day one for a really long time, but the truth is we learn more from the lynches than from doing nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Well, it's rather 2 FMs and Sympstill too many, there is likely no symp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Baratheon Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 We will start fighting, but tomorrow. Anyways, it will not reduce overall number of days before the LyLo (even if we not get any better at lynching).If we lynch now, and skip then - it would be worse, because we will lose in chances at EACH even day. And obviously it's better to skip today, when we know so little. Am i right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Yronwood Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 We will start fighting, but tomorrow. Anyways, it will not reduce overall number of days before the LyLo (even if we not get any better at lynching).If we lynch now, and skip then - it would be worse, because we will lose in chances at EACH even day. And obviously it's better to skip today, when we know so little. Am i right?We (almost) never skip lynches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Baratheon Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 We (almost) never skip lynches :huh: In my eyes it is by no means a proper reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Thorne Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Most interesting, we have such little information to work on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
House Redfort Posted May 16, 2011 Share Posted May 16, 2011 Today we have 0 information and it takes consensus of 8/14 players to lycnh someone. Obviously it will result in misslynch.You are either new or pretending to be so.Here we have pretty much of experience of succcessfully lynching a guilty on day 1 - with zero information, except of what players were saying during day 1. And we have to vote to get and evaluate such info. Since we are obviously skipping RP stage, I'll vote my top suspect after brief reread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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