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House Targaryen

AGOT Mafia Game n= May 2011.

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Hoo boy.

1) Trying to lynch people leads to discussion. Discussion leads to innocents winning. No discussion leads to killers winning.

2) Odd/even rule only applies in the absence of good roles, modkills, etc. Much better to ignore it until the game gets smaller.

Why am I already tired of explaining this when I haven't played this game for years?

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It is day 1.

14 players remain: Edward., Ernst Blofeld, Garfield, Humpty Dumpty, Igor, Joseph Starlin, Krakatoa, Miss Marple, Puff the Magic Dragon, Showgirl Barbie, Simba, Sooty, The mummy, Wonder Woman.

8 votes are needed for a conviction or 7 to go to night.

1 vote for Edward. (Miss Marple)

1 vote for Showgirl Barbie (Edward.)

1 vote for Sooty (Wonder Woman)

1 vote for Night (Showgirl Barbie)

10 players have not voted: Ernst Blofeld, Garfield, Humpty Dumpty, Igor, Joseph Starlin, Krakatoa, Puff the Magic Dragon, Simba, Sooty, The mummy.

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@ Miss Marple: Nope.

Obviously I am just a noob who doesn't know a thing. I bow to your superior knowledge.

I deny your Nambly cookies. They've probably got barbs in.

I never could resist eating my own cookies

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Odd-even rule is not about LyLo. It's general.

In assumption that Doc will fail in healing (which happens in most cases)

we have a simulation:

(two wolves we lynch every day, scums are smart so very likely misslynches will going to occur)

14 players: humans win 0.264

12 players: humans win 0.215

10 players: humans win 0.157

8 players: humans win 0.083

(two wolves we skip the first lynch, then lynch every day, scums are smart so very likely misslynches will going to occur)

13 players: humans win 0.352

11 players: humans win 0.299

9 players: humans win 0.229

7 players: humans win 0.133

So you are saying that we can switch from even to add just before the LyLo and that will bring a better chance. Nope. That's not gonna work. This way we gonna be at 5 players LyLo rather than 3 players LyLo. And thats a huge difference.

Explanation: our win chances are the sum of all successful lynch chances at each day phase. The only way to maximise this sum is to switch from even to odd as soon as possible. Clearly we want to come for 3 players lylo rather than 5. So we should maximize our chances at each day from early on. We should skip today's lynch to keep playing longer.

Today we have 0 information and it takes consensus of 8/14 players to lycnh someone. Obviously it will result in misslynch.

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Also, It seems we have a 3 FMs, so even more so.

Why would you think this? There is no way 3FM is balanced

I was one of the biggest fighters against lynching on day one for a really long time, but the truth is we learn more from the lynches than from doing nothing

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We will start fighting, but tomorrow. Anyways, it will not reduce overall number of days before the LyLo (even if we not get any better at lynching).

If we lynch now, and skip then - it would be worse, because we will lose in chances at EACH even day.

And obviously it's better to skip today, when we know so little. Am i right?

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We will start fighting, but tomorrow. Anyways, it will not reduce overall number of days before the LyLo (even if we not get any better at lynching).

If we lynch now, and skip then - it would be worse, because we will lose in chances at EACH even day.

And obviously it's better to skip today, when we know so little. Am i right?

We (almost) never skip lynches

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Today we have 0 information and it takes consensus of 8/14 players to lycnh someone. Obviously it will result in misslynch.

You are either new or pretending to be so.

Here we have pretty much of experience of succcessfully lynching a guilty on day 1 - with zero information, except of what players were saying during day 1. And we have to vote to get and evaluate such info.

Since we are obviously skipping RP stage, I'll vote my top suspect after brief reread.

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