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House Targaryen

AGOT Mafia Game n= May 2011.

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Goddamn you, Pebbles. I had a sinking feeling I'd wind up with this alt. But Humpty Dumpty kind of sounded like }|{opa, and there were quite a few female alts, so I clung to false hope.

Welcome to Westeros, Sotty Sooty!

@Barbie: Just a quick theory discussion: you're right about the odd-even rule...but we should still never no-lynch on D1. Because not only does that mean we'd start D2 with one strong player missing and no information, but if there's a successful heal/guard or a modkill, we're back to odd and gain a day. The time to no-lynch is in endgame, AFTER we know the doctor can't make a successful heal.

Hmm. You've played on other sites, right? Do you always suggest no-lynching on D1 when there's an even number of players?

(I'm leaving now. I'll be back later this evening.)

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You are either new or pretending to be so.

Malc, you realize everyone's alt is outed in the first post, right? That's }I{opa. You've played with him before. Is this typical of him?

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The night will fall inevitably. We have one evil faction. So if we lynch someone today it would result in -2 tommorow which makes the even number of 12 players, and so on till LyLo. The point is that innocents have significantly better chances to win when it would be an odd number of players at each day phase.

See the Wiki.

lol, no.

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Goddamn you, Pebbles. I had a sinking feeling I'd wind up with this alt. But Humpty Dumpty kind of sounded like }|{opa, and there were quite a few female alts, so I clung to false hope.

Your welcome. :devil:

It is day 1.

14 players remain: Edward., Ernst Blofeld, Garfield, Humpty Dumpty, Igor, Joseph Starlin, Krakatoa, Miss Marple, Puff the Magic Dragon, Showgirl Barbie, Simba, Sooty, The mummy, Wonder Woman.

8 votes are needed for a conviction or 7 to go to night.

2 votes for Sooty (Wonder Woman, Humpty Dumpty)

1 vote for Edward. (Miss Marple)

1 vote for Showgirl Barbie (Edward.)

1 vote for Night (Showgirl Barbie)

9 players have not voted: Ernst Blofeld, Garfield, Igor, Joseph Starlin, Krakatoa, Puff the Magic Dragon, Simba, Sooty, The mummy.

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Here we have pretty much of experience of succcessfully lynching a guilty on day 1 - with zero information, except of what players were saying during day 1.

With even number of players in a similar setup? Links please, or didn't happen. <_<

And voting/discussion night will give us info too. Clearly killers want us to lynch somebody today.

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Malc, you realize everyone's alt is outed in the first post, right? That's }I{opa. You've played with him before. Is this typical of him?

Well, like Lany, I almost never read starting rules. I even sent alt guesses to Targ before reading your post - and, yes, I thought Barbie is }I{opa. But I wasn't completely sure of this.

His behavior is typical of him, either when guilty and when not. Just like me, he is always same.

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quite a few female alts
:tantrum:

Welcome to Westeros, Sotty Sooty!

@Barbie: Just a quick theory discussion: you're right about the odd-even rule...but we should still never no-lynch on D1. Because not only does that mean we'd start D2 with one strong player missing and no information, but if there's a successful heal/guard or a modkill, we're back to odd and gain a day. The time to no-lynch is in endgame, AFTER we know the doctor can't make a successful heal.

So were you so enamored of my beautiful female alt that you had to both argue and vote the same way I did? :P

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For now, I'd like to test Wonder woman, it's only player who sounds scummy yet. No proof, just vibes.

I won't lynch Edward or Humpty today, for obvious reasons. We need our strongest players alive. Everybody else is a possibility.

ETA: I evidently missed that we have a lot more of strong players. Stupid me looked only at those who posted already.

WW still looks like a good chance.

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*ROAR*

Thank you, Pebbles, for giving me the Simba alt in recognition of my rightful position as King and Savior of all Mafia.

Peasants, worry not, for I am here now, to lead you all to victory. Do not strain your inferior minds trying to work things out - as usual, I shall do it all for you. Just give me time, friendly simpletons, and I will most assuredly solve the game and bring us all infinite glory!

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I meant "night" is not so dumb idea after all.

I am not a newb just as the majority of players here. I admit we have great hunters, but killers most likely are expirienced too.

The Mathematics tells that best strategy is to skip this lynch.

All points against this strutegy are weak:

1) Healer? Healer will not intervene in most cases.

2) No info? I don't think so. Just watch what you guys are saying:

a)We gonna lynch somebody today, because we can lynch scum!

b)Voting for night will leave us out of info.

I see a contradicton here.

Why lynching today without objectively any bits of info is good, but postponing the lynch untill tomorrow is bad. You saying: "because there would be no info".

And this is subjective and wrong. We would have more info for tommorow's lynch.

So why we need to hurry?

Either way we get an equal amout of allowed misslynches before the LyLo.

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I'll match you content for content! :P

Actually, no, I'll add some:

You said you won't lynch one of two 'strongest' players because we need them alive. I agree with that - having multiple players of the logical, verbose, and intelligent type, pushing in different directions, keeps the discussion going much better than having just one.

But do you feel the same way about going from three to two, or would you be theoretically open to a Simba/Edward/HD lynch today?

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Might I inquire, what are these accusations based on? What information? =)

Dragon, any accusations at the beginning of day 1 doesn't have to be based.

You just throw some shit at arbitrary directions and look where it sticks.

By the way, what you can say in your defence?

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But do you feel the same way about going from three to two, or would you be theoretically open to a Simba/Edward/HD lynch today?

Theoretically, yes.

I've seen Simba saying things which made me wanting to lynch him almost on day 1.

Practically, for now, doubtful.

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SGB:

The difference in win percentage between your 14 and 13 player scenarios is less than 10%.

Isn't the chance of a healer hitting (on any of the nights) higher than that?

I suck at probability so I won't attempt to do the math myself, but it hardly seems fair to quibble over percentage points while entirely discarding the possibility of a heal/guard/modkill.

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