An Analysis of HBO's Total Viewers Figures

[SergioCQH]

I've done an analysis of the total viewers numbers that has been published by EW. I think it's worthy of a front-page post because it sheds much more light on how the show doing than the Nielsen ratings.

Thus far, EW has published five total viewing numbers. Using these five numbers, we can establish to a reasonably certain degree the viewing trends of Episodes 1 through 6.

First, James Hibberd revealed in http://insidetv.ew.com/2011/04/26/game-of-thrones-ratings-for-second-episode/ that the total viewers for the first episode in the first week were 6.8 million.

Second, Hibberd reported at http://insidetv.ew.com/2011/05/03/game-of-thrones-ratings-rise/ that the total viewers for the first episode in the first two weeks were 8.7 million.

Third, after the airing of the fourth episode, Hibberd reported at http://insidetv.ew.com/2011/05/10/game-of-thrones-ratings-rise-again/ that the average total viewers of the series was 8.3 million.

Fourth, after the fifth episode, Hibberd reported at http://insidetv.ew.com/2011/05/17/game-of-thrones-ratings-climb/ that the average total viewers of the series was 8.1 million.

Fifth, after the eighth episode, Lynette Rice reported at http://insidetv.ew.com/2011/06/07/game-of-thrones-ratings/ that the average total viewers of the series was 8.3 million.

What the first two numbers show is that these numbers are calculated from the total viewings of each episode after the first two weeks of airing. It was Knurk that clued me into this fact. It is confirmed by the fact that the first average figure we get is after Episode 4, because it wasn't until after Episode 4 did we get the two weeks number for Episode 2 to average with the two weeks number for Episode 1.

Using the number from after Episode 4 and the 8.7 million figure for Episode 1, we can calculate that Episode 2 had 7.9 million viewers.

Using the number from after Episode 5, which is 8.1 million average for the first three episodes, we can then calculate that Episode 3 had 7.7 million viewers.

Because we do not get another figure until after Episode 8, which would include the first six episodes, we cannot calculate exactly what the viewing totals are for Episodes 4, 5, and 6. However, we can make a fairly educated guess depending upon whether we think Episode 4 or 5 was the turning point in which the downward trend reversed.

If we think Episode 4 was when the series began to recover in viewership, then the numbers would look something like this:

Episode 1 – 8.7 million (certain)

Episode 2 – 7.9 million (certain)

Episode 3 – 7.7 million (certain)

Episode 4 – 8.1 million (hypothetical 1)

Episode 5 – 8.5 million (hypothetical 1)

Episode 6 – 8.9 million (hypothetical 1)

If we think Episode 5 was the turning point, then the numbers would look something like this:

Episode 1 – 8.7 million (certain)

Episode 2 – 7.9 million (certain)

Episode 3 – 7.7 million (certain)

Episode 4 – 7.7 million (hypothetical 2)

Episode 5 – 8.5 million (hypothetical 2)

Episode 6 – 9.3 million (hypothetical 2)

Yes, these numbers are guesses, but they are mathematically rigorous guesses. There's no other way to make sense of the fact that the average total viewers number went down and then up within the span of a few episodes unless there is some dramatic swing in viewership numbers.

But there is an explanation for the sudden surge in viewership other than the series picking up momentum: HBOGo. HBOGo was introduced May 2nd, after the third episode. It wasn't really marketed widely until before episode 6. I think we have HBOGo to thank for the greater part of the viewership increase.

[BlackTalon]

I suspect the drop after episode one was caused by all people who decided to give the show a try after all the hype and then decided it was not for them. And by episode 4 the by-word-of-mouth effect really started kicking in. The numbers for the last episode will be really interesting, with so many people threatening to quit over Ned´s death. I heard numbers for episode 9 were pretty much the same as for 8, but against very strong competition (NBA finals)