R + L = J Part XXIII

[Xray the Enforcer]

I feel like you just blew my mind. I just took it for granted that she killed herself. Of course, I also took it for granted that Wylla was Jon's mom when I first started reading the series, so that shows how deeply I was looking into things... :shocked:

There is a theory (although I don't have an opinion as to its plausibility or accuracy) that

(spoilers for possible fate of Ashara)

Ashara = Quaithe, the priestess in the lacquered mask from Qarth.

[Frisco]

We assume that Howland Reed (and maybe other Reeds by extension) are the only ones who know about Rhaegar and Lyanna, but my memory is hazy--do we know that none of Rhaegar's friends/family/circle knew that Lyanna was locked in a tower? If there was enough proof that Lyanna had slept with Rhaegar that Robert was convinced that she was raped, it seems like the knowledge would be more widespread.

So there's a rumor that Lyanna had sex with Rhaegar. There's also a mysterious child brought home about 9 months after the first rumor, claimed to be a bastard son of a man famed for his honor. Also, this honorable man will not even talk about the subject.

As much as it looks like R+L=J to us, I feel like there should be someone in the books smart enough to think of the same thing. :P Maybe not have the same sort of proof, but at least some speculation.

[Maester Luwin]

As much as it looks like R+L=J to us, I feel like there should be someone in the books smart enough to think of the same thing. :P Maybe not have the same sort of proof, but at least some speculation.

Maybe that person just hasn't been shown yet.

[Frisco]

The way the smallfolk gossip, I'd think there'd be rumors carved into every outhouse from Dorne to the wall!

♥ R+L 4ever ♥

Haha...R+L=J! (Howland wuz here 6/7/77)

[Breedy]

Correct. The above theories have timeline issues that can't be fixed. Ned was married to Cat before he could have married Ashara.

Yet Cat was promised to Brandon be for Ned.

The time line could and I stress could look like this.

1. Cat promised to Brandon, Lysa to Jon Arryn, amd Lyanna to Robert

2. Inquires/feelers are put out to marry Ned (2nd Son) to a highborn daughter of a lesser house (possible Ashara)

3. Assume that the above marriages serve a the greater purpose of conslidating power between Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully and Rickard Stark.

4. Rhagear and Lyanna do there thing

5. Clop...clop...Brandon Rides off to King's Landing...and Rickard follows

..they die

6. Ned is now Lord of Winterfell and Winterfell is one piece of the triad. But we need a marriage between a Stark and a Tully to secure the alliance, both must be promient members. Ned is more or less forced to marrg Cat, with Jon Arryn (his foster father) whispering in his ear.

7. News finally reaches Ashara that she might wed Ned (did the meet at the Herranhel tourny w/ the Knight of the Laughing tree)...news like this would have been sent by envoy taking X months.

8. The war lasts a year or so (time wises what is the order? Battle of Trident, lifting the seige at Storms End, Tower of Joy, Sack of King's Landing)

9. Ned rides of...to return "Dawn"??? and that's it??? (Possible I'll grant since it appears Arthur died defending Ned sister against Ned and some friends )

10. Ned informs Ashara about what has happened...

So yeah the time line is iffy but travel takes weeks to months at best and there was a war going on

[alaric]

When I recall my experience of how Eddard felt every time he had a flashback of his last moments with Lyanna, I see a man burdened with sadness, guilt, and remorse. We are assuming that his sister is dying, likely from complications due to childbirth, and that Ned is just in time to spend his last moments with her. Does she really need to ask him to take care of her child and keep its identity secret? She knows her kid brother would die to protect family and, ironically, we did have to watch him die because he wanted to protect the lives of his enemy's children by giving Cersei a "heads up."

I think that Lyanna knew her child's life was in danger if she was recovered alive from the Tower of Joy. There could be no happy outcome if she lived. What rings true to me is that she was really asking Ned to show her mercy and disguise the childbirth, giving her the exit she desired. And I believe that Eddard's character could commit to such deed out of love for his sister and her innocent child, even though he would be cursed as a kinslayer. We have been told that he frequented communion with the old gods and rarely seemed happy. Perhaps he was praying for some divine understanding and forgiveness from them to lift the curse on House Stark. But, no joy.

[metr0man]

Crazy alternate theory...

Lyanna was giving birth to a DRAGON, not Jon. The dragon gored her. Bed of blood. I'm thinking back to Mirri telling Dany how Rhaego was born looking like a dragon. What if that was true and that Targ blood/seed can somehow produce dragon children? She died giving birth to an actual dragon, which either died at birth (like Dany's child) or Ned himself killed it?

(i know it's actually a loony theory haha, I'm actually fully onboard with R+L=J, but her being gored by a dragon is the only alternate theory that made me sit up and go "whoa")

[Dragonfish]

I think this board has been getting madder and madder the closer we get to the release date.

[slayer420]

I think this board has been getting madder and madder the closer we get to the release date.

If someone would have posted the Red Wedding before it happened you would have called them crazy

[KyleLitke]

For the record, Catelyn and Brandon were promised to each other long before the war. When Jaime was a squire, they sent him to Riverrun with a "message" that "had to be delivered personally" and while he was there Hoster sat him next to Lysa at every meal...seems obvious there was some kind of vague discussion about Jaime and Lysa. Jaime thinks to himself that Catelyn interested him more but she was promised to the heir of Winterfell.

Anyway, point is, the Catelyn/Brandon marriage was not created in order to get Hoster into the war or whatever. It just seems to have been a normal marriage to shore up house alliances without the war involved.

All that said I do think it's possible there were feelers sent out, there was some thought of Ashara and Ned getting married in the future. I think that's absolutely a possibility. The part I question is the idea that they were actually already firmly promised to each other and Ned broke that off to go marry Catelyn. Promised to her brother or not, breaking the betrothal wouldn't be the honorable thing to do and probably wouldn't have even been what Ned wanted, and with his brother and father dead, Ned was the Lord of Winterfell, so it's his call. Now, if they were not betrothed and there were only talking about the possibility, totally different story, that can easily be broken off.

[corbon]

All that said I do think it's possible there were feelers sent out, there was some thought of Ashara and Ned getting married in the future. I think that's absolutely a possibility. The part I question is the idea that they were actually already firmly promised to each other and Ned broke that off to go marry Catelyn.

There is no evidence, or even hint, of any serious (ie, for political purposes) thought of a Ned + Ashara marriage.

But there is evidence that ties Ned and Ashara directly. At the tourney at Harrenhal, the Wild Wolf (Brandon Stark) had to ask a Maid with Purple Dancing Eyes (or something like that - Ashara Dayne) to dance on behalf of his Shy Brother (Ned).

It sounds like Ned rather liked Ashara.

Then her later apparent suicide after he arrives at Starfall with her dead brother's Sword, a baby, and the news he has married Catelyn Tully in place of his brother, makes it seem like it was a mutual thing.

But that is all we have that ties them together.

It is not impossible that there was more. But speculating on such has as much basis as speculating that Littlefinger started Robert's Rebellion by lying to Brandon after Lyanna and Rhaegar met with him on the road and gave him a message to pass to her family about her eloping.

It's a neat little theory, and fits all though known facts while contradicting none, but it is entirely speculative.

I( have to agree though. It makes no sense for Ned to break his own marriage contract in order to fulfill his brother's. If that was the case, there was always Benjen available to avoid breaking the other contract.

[Lord Qorgyle]

If someone would have posted the Red Wedding before it happened you would have called them crazy

Guessing that there was going to be a mass murder (mind you, before there was a reason for thinking there would be: Robb married Jeyne in the same book that the Red Wedding took place) doesn't require the same level of thinking that assuming there are dragons sleeping in fortifications built thousands of years before Aegon landed in Westeros, or assuming that there are hundreds of hidden Targaryens in disguise because of minor details in their physical descriptions, or assuming that dead people aren't dead but someone else in disguise.

If a theory just fills the gaps in a scene (such as the Tower of Joy dream) or gives a plausible explanation to an unfulfilled foreshadowing or prophecy, it's cool - there's clearly a mystery there that requires an explanation, and you found one. Jon's parentage IS a mystery, the Tower of Joy is another (hence Martin's refusal to have Howland Reed appear on stage yet). The identity of Jon's mother is a relevant piece of information we don't have yet and it's reasonable to think it's important to the plot. R+L=J may or may not be true but it fits and solves both mysteries.

However if a theory requires the reader to give a second meaning to things that clearly have plausible, common (and uninteresting) meanings, or requires to make a lot of assumptions without previous basis (not even the Old Nan has ever said a word about dragons in Westeros before Aegon, and Aerys has been called a lot of foul things but never accused of raping women) you're just reading too much into it.

[Yorko]

If that was the case, there was always Benjen available to avoid breaking the other contract.

Benjen, who is a sworn brother of the Night’s Watch for reasons unknown.

[Ygritte]

Benjen, who is a sworn brother of the Night’s Watch for reasons unknown.

He may not have joined up yet at that point, though.

[Darth Dragonstone]

Yet Cat was promised to Brandon be for Ned.

The time line could and I stress could look like this.

1. Cat promised to Brandon, Lysa to Jon Arryn, amd Lyanna to Robert

2. Inquires/feelers are put out to marry Ned (2nd Son) to a highborn daughter of a lesser house (possible Ashara)

3. Assume that the above marriages serve a the greater purpose of conslidating power between Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully and Rickard Stark.

4. Rhagear and Lyanna do there thing

5. Clop...clop...Brandon Rides off to King's Landing...and Rickard follows

..they die

6. Ned is now Lord of Winterfell and Winterfell is one piece of the triad. But we need a marriage between a Stark and a Tully to secure the alliance, both must be promient members. Ned is more or less forced to marrg Cat, with Jon Arryn (his foster father) whispering in his ear.

7. News finally reaches Ashara that she might wed Ned (did the meet at the Herranhel tourny w/ the Knight of the Laughing tree)...news like this would have been sent by envoy taking X months.

8. The war lasts a year or so (time wises what is the order? Battle of Trident, lifting the seige at Storms End, Tower of Joy, Sack of King's Landing)

9. Ned rides of...to return "Dawn"??? and that's it??? (Possible I'll grant since it appears Arthur died defending Ned sister against Ned and some friends )

10. Ned informs Ashara about what has happened...

So yeah the time line is iffy but travel takes weeks to months at best and there was a war going on

not that this is addressed in text, but a glance at the map shows that Riverrun is geographically indefensible, whereas Winterfell and the Vale would be the most easily defended of the 7 kingdoms. Since Riverrun is astride the major land approaches to the other two realms, the RR/WF/Vale tripartite alliance would make inherent strategic sense. Such an alliance would ensure that anyone wanting to invade the North or the Vale would have to pass thru Riverrun, and that the majority of the fighting would occur in Riverrun. This is pretty much how it played out in the novel.

The Reach is the other geographically indefensible realm, and cannot survive without alliances with either or both of Lannisters and Baratheons. Again....this is how it played out in the novel.

[Darth Dragonstone]

Yet Cat was promised to Brandon be for Ned.

The time line could and I stress could look like this.

1. Cat promised to Brandon, Lysa to Jon Arryn, amd Lyanna to Robert

2. Inquires/feelers are put out to marry Ned (2nd Son) to a highborn daughter of a lesser house (possible Ashara)

3. Assume that the above marriages serve a the greater purpose of conslidating power between Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully and Rickard Stark.

4. Rhagear and Lyanna do there thing

5. Clop...clop...Brandon Rides off to King's Landing...and Rickard follows

..they die

6. Ned is now Lord of Winterfell and Winterfell is one piece of the triad. But we need a marriage between a Stark and a Tully to secure the alliance, both must be promient members. Ned is more or less forced to marrg Cat, with Jon Arryn (his foster father) whispering in his ear.

7. News finally reaches Ashara that she might wed Ned (did the meet at the Herranhel tourny w/ the Knight of the Laughing tree)...news like this would have been sent by envoy taking X months.

8. The war lasts a year or so (time wises what is the order? Battle of Trident, lifting the seige at Storms End, Tower of Joy, Sack of King's Landing)

9. Ned rides of...to return "Dawn"??? and that's it??? (Possible I'll grant since it appears Arthur died defending Ned sister against Ned and some friends )

10. Ned informs Ashara about what has happened...

So yeah the time line is iffy but travel takes weeks to months at best and there was a war going on

I was struck at Ned's demeanor when telling of the battle in which he and others slew the Knights Watch knights defending Lyanna. He no doubt knew that to "rescue" his sister he had to cut his way past Dayne, et al. But he also showed no joy in his victory. He could only remark what a splendid knight Dayne was and what a terrible thing it was that Dayne had to die. It seemed clear to me that Ned held Dayne in respect not just for his ability as a knight, but at Dayne's willingness to die for Lyanna, which is exactly what he did. Two men with the same goal -- to protect Lyanna -- yet each man had to cut thru the other to accomplish their goal. Dayne perished, and Ned seemed to truly regret that it had to come to that, that a knight so fine as Dayne had to die at all.

And the great irony of it all......Lyanna died anyway. Greek tragedy is rarely so tragic.

No doubt Ned's decision to return Dawn was as much a function of Ned's respect for Dayne as for the sword. Imagine they dynamics of approaching a fair maiden with whom you are smitten and having to tell her that you just slew her brother, in a situation where both sides in the conflict were acting out of duty and honor. A sword would be a hollow gesture indeed. And imagine Ashara's reaction to her brother being killed by Ned, a knight she had strong feelings for.

Basically, I think the deep undercurrents of emotion regarding Ned and Ashara are more easily understood than the Ned + Ashara = bastard child scenario.

[corbon]

He may not have joined up yet at that point, though.

He had not. During the Rebellion he was the Stark in Winterfell (there must always be a Stark in Winterfell) and he joined the NW after the war finished, presumably after Ned came home.

[Wik]

Yet Cat was promised to Brandon be for Ned.

The time line could and I stress could look like this.

1. Cat promised to Brandon, Lysa to Jon Arryn, amd Lyanna to Robert

2. Inquires/feelers are put out to marry Ned (2nd Son) to a highborn daughter of a lesser house (possible Ashara)

3. Assume that the above marriages serve a the greater purpose of conslidating power between Jon Arryn, Hoster Tully and Rickard Stark.

4. Rhagear and Lyanna do there thing

5. Clop...clop...Brandon Rides off to King's Landing...and Rickard follows

..they die

6. Ned is now Lord of Winterfell and Winterfell is one piece of the triad. But we need a marriage between a Stark and a Tully to secure the alliance, both must be promient members. Ned is more or less forced to marrg Cat, with Jon Arryn (his foster father) whispering in his ear.

7. News finally reaches Ashara that she might wed Ned (did the meet at the Herranhel tourny w/ the Knight of the Laughing tree)...news like this would have been sent by envoy taking X months.

8. The war lasts a year or so (time wises what is the order? Battle of Trident, lifting the seige at Storms End, Tower of Joy, Sack of King's Landing)

9. Ned rides of...to return "Dawn"??? and that's it??? (Possible I'll grant since it appears Arthur died defending Ned sister against Ned and some friends )

10. Ned informs Ashara about what has happened...

So yeah the time line is iffy but travel takes weeks to months at best and there was a war going on

1. We are on the same track so far. This is actually what happened, with the minor point that I will note Jon was more or less forced into marriage with Lysa to secure the alliance.

2. Ned, as far as we know of, was never approached by any house, great or small at this point. So it is PURE speculation, however I will even cede this point.

3. Exactly right

4. yes yes

5. BBQ anyone?

6. Ned was married to Cat because she was the eldest of a great house, betrothed to the eldest of another great house. Brandon died however. From both the Starks and Tully point of view, the ONLY option that made sense was to marry Cat and Ned. Who would the Tully's go to, the Lannisters? Martells? Obviously not. All 3 needed each other, Ned, an honorable man understood and assumed his role as lord of WInterfell, he really had no other choice and as far as we know, no other suitors with the exception of one quick meeting and dance with Ashara Dayne at Harrenhall, which while was exciting for Ned, most likely was a distant memory (at least to me, if I meant a great women for a night and then my father and brother were murdered and I was suddenly thrown into a civil war-like situation where I was one of the leading houses, I wouldn't be too concerned with her anymore).

7. They did meet at the tourney. Ned was too shy to talk to her and his brother, Brandon, approached her on his behalf. They may have been madly in love. But that is irrelevant as we know that didn't impact the outcome of Ned's marriage. I have ceded some points earlier but in this theory you claim that Ashara and Ned are possibly considering being married prior to Lyanna and Rhaegar's disappearance. But as far as we know, they have never meant. Ned meant Ashara AT Harrenhal during the tourney. Which was a few months prior to the start of Robert's Rebellion. So from the tourney you assume envoys go out from the North, all the way to Dorne and back in a couple of months (none of this is even speculated in the books mind you) and that a potential deal is looming between the two.

8. Battle of the Bells is the first major battle. This is when the Targs realize they have pissed off enough people that the rebellion is serious. Rhaegar returns from the south, to KL. Battle of the Trident happens, Rhaegar dies, Sacking of KL, Siege of Dragonstone is lifted and ToJ happens.

9. Ned returns Dawn because he has great respect for the knights of the KG and is an honorable man. It is happen stance that it was the brother of a women he was attracted to. We know that while he may have done other things in Starfall or had secondary purposes, from the clues we get, his primary reason for going to Starfall was to return Dawn to the Daynes.

10. I suspect that Ashara already knew that Arthur was at the ToJ and seeing Eddard ride up could only mean one of two things (as far as I can consider anyhow), Eddard was looking for the ToJ and knew he was close but had not yet found it, or he had already been there and that there was most likely a fight. Seeing that Ned was there, that is bad for the chances of Arthur being alive.

I think the timeline and speculative ideas just are way too far off. No disrespect. Just saying, for this to be true so much would have had to have happened and we never get a glimpse or suggestion in Ned's memories or talks with Robert about ANY of the speculative parts brought up in this theory.

I think this board has been getting madder and madder the closer we get to the release date.

QFT :agree:

If someone would have posted the Red Wedding before it happened you would have called them crazy

That is much more different than a broken "second possibility" timeline about a theory that already has a timeline that fits together well. I'm all for examining R+L=J and even dissenters who don't believe it, but people who say "I don't believe it because I don't want Jon to be a Targ" aren't adding anything constructive to the conversation.

Theorizing about R+L=J is different then speculating about a potential Red Wedding in ASoS because we have more bits of info about R+L=J being possible. The Red Wedding was a random event that most people didn't see or anticipate and so no reliable discussion could be made on that.

[KyleLitke]

He may not have joined up yet at that point, though.

He didn't, but we don't know exactly when he made the decision. It's specifically noted that he sat out the war at Winterfell because there must always be a Stark there, and I believe there's an implication at one point that he waited to take the black because of that.

[Ygritte]

I think that's definitely a possibility. We don't know how Eddard suddenly found out where Lyanna was, Ashara seems like a potential culprit for that.

After some rereading, I believe that by the end of the war, Ned knew where Lyanna was and that she was pregnant. Don't know how he found out, but I think he knew. He didn't go to get her right away--he was busy, and I think he probably thought "Well, she's in this tower in the middle of nowhere, far from the fighting, and there are Kingsguard there, and Robert doesn't know where she is; there are far worse places for her to be. She's safe for now and I'll go get her when we're done here." But then he snapped when Robert let the other Targ children be killed. Here's the quote that stuck out to me:

Ned did not feign surprise; Robert’s hatred of the Targaryens was a madness in him. He remembered the angry words they had exchanged when Tywin Lannister had presented Robert with the corpses of Rhaegar’s wife and children as a token of fealty. Ned had named that murder; Robert called it war. When he had protested that the young prince and princess were no more than babes, his new-made king had replied, “I see no babes. Only dragonspawn.” Not even Jon Arryn had been able to calm that storm. Eddard Stark had ridden out that very day in a cold rage, to fight the last battles of the war alone in the south. It had taken another death to reconcile them; Lyanna’s death, and the grief they had shared over her passing.

(AGOT, p. 112 in the mmpb)

I think that by the "last battles of the war" that Ned fought "alone in the south," he means the ToJ. It's possible that he found out about where the tower was and that L was pregnant right that very day, but I've always wondered about the crazy coincidence that he happened to turn up right when she was in labor. Now I think it's that he already knew she was pregnant and that she was due right around then. But suddenly the ToJ didn't seem so safe anymore, with Robert condoning the murders of "dragonspawn." He figured he'd get both Lyanna and the baby to safety, but as it turned out, Lyanna died instead.