[ADwD Spoilers] Is the letter real?

[The Marquis de Leech]

- Roose may be dead himself, as the deliverance of this letter partly denotes that Ramsey is now in control of Winterfell.

If this were the case, Ramsay would have signed off as Lord of the Dreadfort (which he didn't).

[mormont]

If this were the case, Ramsay would have signed off as Lord of the Dreadfort (which he didn't).

Only if he wanted it to be known that Roose was dead. I suspect that if he wanted to give the impression that their side had been victorious, he would want to avoid that.

[Sun]

I assume that's why he's also demanding hostages he can leverage against Stannis. Indeed, if Stannis were actually dead and his army defeated, Ramsay's need for hostages would be far less dire.

And there lies my problem. If Ramsay believes that Stannis is alive then asking for hostages to come down from the Wall would risk the very real possibility of running into Stannis on their way, thus never reaching him. Also, his lie of Stannis being dead would be a risky one as Stannis could have been raven telegraphing the Wall with updates. I don't see how Ramsay could realistically expect his letter to serve his blackmail purpose unless he believed that Stannis is no longer a threat.

Under these assumptions - that Ramsay wrote it knowing that Stannins is alive and out there - the letter's logic simply does not hold water, for me.

[borwin]

Hmmm after thinking about it, I believe that Ramsey believes that Stannis is dead, but that doesnt mean that its true.

For instance consider the fact that the Frey's believed that Davos was dead also, and that Manderly had him beheaded.

So in my opinion I think Manderly's men killed the Frey's or had them attack Stannis's camp and assisted Stannis in killing the Frey's.

After that the Manderly's swore their allegience to Stannis and they concocted a scheme to present Stannis's sword to the Boltens as proof of Stannis's death, but in reality Stannis and his army are marching for a suprise attack on Winterfell. And when that happens the Manderly's will open the castle gates for Stannis.

[generic]

As I see it there are two plausible possibilities: Either Ramsay wrote it thinking Stannis is dead or Mance wrote it conspiring with Mel.

Mel has the motive in that she believes Stannis will save the world and is consequently more important than everything else including the Wall. It would also bind Jon irrevocably to Stannis cause and keep him from dying a stupid death north of the Wall. It may even give Stannis a Stark in Winterfell. Not a bad plan at all. It also seems like the kind of plan Mance would like. And he does owe her.

[Kadence]

I would just figure that this was Ramsay lying, rather than a forgery. Unlike some people I think the letter sounds very much like Ramsay, and I think the "Bastard" on the front makes sense - to Ramsay, that's probably the most hateful insult imaginable. There's also the "And I want my Reek", and I don't see why Mance would add that - what does Jon know about Reek?

However, there's a few things that make me wonder if it's Mance. The first is the lack of seal. The second, is the handwriting - why would Martin have emphasized Ramsay's spiky handwriting? The only reason I can think of is to give a hint that this letter is fake, when Jon fails to note the handwriting. Another thing with the handwriting, is that Jon is repeatedly noticing how Cotter Pyke didn't write his letters but signed them. This too seems to be a hint regarding handwriting - handwriting foreshadowing, if you would. And there's also the mentions in the letters about Val and Mance's kid, which is a bit odd. The letter seems too well-designed to piss Jon off (but then, making people go crazy is what Ramsay is best at).

It's the handwriting thing that's what really makes me wonder though. Why the emphasis on Cotter Pyke signing his letters? Why the noting of Ramsay's handwriting by Asha? If it weren't for these I'd be convinced Ramsay was the author, but these have me seriously questioning it. Using the Cotter Pyke stuff as a hint for this letter being a forgery is exactly Martin's style.

I still can't make sense of Mance's motivation though. Why exactly would Mance want to try and bait Jon into leading a wildling army to Winterfell?

[Axon]

Ramsay would have cut off Stannis' cock or something. Strange things are afoot in that letter.

As to the handwriting, I agree. Much like the ship insurer's habit of biting coins is pointed out, it seems to be done for a reason. At first it's little more than a subtle detail, and later it becomes important.

Finally, in the same vein that Mance has no real reason to lure Jon in, I can't see what Ramsay's reasons are either, other than the fact that he's a nutjob. Roose, clearly the brains of the two, had little to no concern over Jon. I suppose his motivation is to sew up Winterfell, but with Jon having taken the black, there's not even a reason to start with him until he actually made a move.

[Kadence]

The black brothers were totally in on the contents of his letter.

Rereading the last Jon chapter, Ghost tried to bite the black brother Mully, just like Grey Wind before the Red Wedding. Mully insists that Jon read the letter even when he tells Clydas to put it away for later. Also, what he says before Clydas hands Jon the letter was foreboding.

Nice theory. This makes a ton of sense and explains the pink seal. They opened it, then they re-sealed it. This would explain how they weren't surprised by the contents at all.

Here's when Jon finds out about the letter:

Jon: "Tell him to leave it with you. I will read it later."

Mully: "As you say, m'lord, only...Clydas don't look his proper self...he's more white than pink, if you get my meaning...and he's shaking."

Why would Clydas because *that* scared about this letter? Only if he knows that the NW wrote the letter and is setting Jon up, or he read the contents and he freaked out. But they couldn't have written it themselves because they don't know about any of this stuff.

The one thing this fails to explain is the handwriting clues. But it explains a lot of other stuff, like the Watch's strange behavior and the seal.

Now the question is, why would they open the letter? If as you theorize, that they sent a second letter meant for the Watch, it wouldn't explain the seal - because Ramsay could seal Jon's letter too. So I don't know about that. Perhaps they were just getting paranoid and opened Jon's mail.

[Kadence]

Here you go. From the Wayward Bride (Ashara) POV chapter:

Then, a description of the letter sent to Jon:

So here are the similarities:

(1) hard pink wax seal

(2) generally impolite tone set up to piss off the reader ("I write in the blood of ironmen)

(3) both times the letter is thought of first by "dark wings, dark words" (although that is common with raven-mail)

(4) Signed Ramsay Bolton Lord of Winterfell/Trueborn Lord of Winterfell.

(5) each time the deliverer is nervous of the letter despite the seal not being broken indicating that the letter had not been read (possibly indicating that an additional letter had been sent to other recipients that would make the deliverer have a pretty good guess on the letter's contents)

From this we can probably say three things:

[a] The theory that pink seal = Mel has 0 textual support and so can probably be discarded as evidence for the theory of Mel's authorship.

The similarities in style, seal, and signature line indicate that more likely than not, the author is Ramsay. Unfortunately, we do not have a description of the handwriting so cannot conclusively rule out Mance being the author although its very unlikely.

[c] Ramsay's style may have been to send one "fuck you" letter to his enemy while also sending a second secret letter to potential allies

Whoa, great research.

So apparently Ramsay doesn't have a seal. Somehow just about everyone here including me competely missed that :blush:

There's still the handwriting thing, but now I'm leaning towards Ramsay being the author again. The handwriting thing is weird, I don't get Martin's setup there...but Mance just doesn't seem to have a reasonable motive, and I don't for one second believe this was Mel's work. She seems incapable of writing a letter this rude or cunning.

But this "Ramsay always sends two letters" theory is interesting. Not sure if I buy it, but it's possible. Because the Watch officers certainly seemed to be aware of this letter's contents.

[Bastard of Godsgrace]

I also noticed the handwriting thing. It does seem to hint Ramsay wasn't the true author, but if not he, then who? Mance didn't have any motive which makes sense, and for Roose it would be totally out of character. Besides, why would he pretend he is his bastard son? Melisandre wouldn't know about Reek or false Arya. Who else is there? Alliser Thorne acting in league in Ramsay? I don't buy it. It looks like it must be Ramsay, by simple process of elimination. It does seem strange, though.

[Starkdar]

This letter still has me puzzled. Regardless of who wrote it, if the objective of the letter is to provoke Jon to come to Winterfell, I don't see how the letter is supposed to accomplish it (which makes the snap character-reversal in Jon's reaction even more bizarre). If there are lies in the letter, wouldn't "Arya"'s escape be the one thing Ramsay would actually want to lie about in order to goad Jon? In fact, wouldn't he harp on how he still has her and then maybe subtly hint at the things he might do to her?

[Kadence]

Has anyone noticed that one of Stannis' men mentioned in all seriousness in Asha's hearing that Stannis had seen - in the flames - a great victory that men would sing of for a thousand years in the future. I don't think that Stannis lies to himself about those things; I don't imagine that he would boast or lie to his underlings, either.

Anyone know what page this is on, where Stannis talks about seeing victory?

That's very interesting. Perhaps Stannis' hidden Targ blood powers are manifesting for once (Shireen seems to have them).

Regardless of who wrote it, if the objective of the letter is to provoke Jon to come to Winterfell, I don't see how the letter is supposed to accomplish it (which makes the snap character-reversal in Jon's reaction even more bizarre). If there are lies in the letter, wouldn't "Arya"'s escape be the one thing Ramsay would actually want to lie about in order to goad Jon? In fact, wouldn't he harp on how he still has her and then maybe subtly hint at the things he might do to her?

The breaking of his vows was startling and it did seem out of character to me at first, but, when you consider the fact that he thinks his sister is married to a man who brags about making cloaks from the skins of women, I think it becomes more understandable. It's one thing to not get involved in politics, or to not support your father or brother in a war - leaving your sister in the hands of this madman is something else though. I think many men who otherwise would remain true to their oaths, would not be able to do so when their sisters are married to a man who merrily makes leather cloaks from women.

As for saying he still has Arya, that doesn't make sense. He wants his bride back - and because the plan was to take her back to the Wall, he presumes she is there. His bride is his main objective, not Jon. His whole future depends on getting her back.

I think Ramsay assumes that because she isn't Arya, Jon will actually be willing to return her, because she's nobody to Jon. Of course, if she's fake there's nothing stopping Jon from telling everyone she's fake, but maybe he thinks he can intimidate Jon into staying silent. He's desperate I guess anyway so he doesn't have many options, now that fake Arya might be exposed. And I think Ramsay is dumb enough (or desperate enough) to believe that Jon might actually send him the hostages.

Also it just occurred to me why he wants Val and the "prince": because most are right and Mance is indeed running loose murdering guards here and there, and Ramsay wants Mance stopped. Having Stannis' family hostage won't stop Mance, but threatening Mance's own son will.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

The letter confuses me, honestly.

It sounds like Ramsay, but it doesn't add up. We know that Theon and Jeyne escaped and got to Stannis. Wouldn't they have been killed or caught if Stannis had actually been defeated? Yet the letter says that they're still missing. It also doesn't mention Asha, who's unique in that she's a woman and a member of the Iron Islands royal house. You'd think she'd merit a mention. The hostages Ramsay asks for also don't make much sense. Most of the kingdom doesn't believe that Stannis is legitimate anyway, and now he's "dead," so what use would his wife and daughter be as hostages, if everyone who'd pay for them is also "dead"? And Val and the wildling baby and even Mel would have even less value as hostages.

This is more connected to Jon's "demise," but his reaction to the letter made no sense. He only cares about the Boltons insofar as he thinks that Arya has married Ramsay. But the letter says that "Arya" got away. Why would or should Jon go to Winterfell if he already knows his "sister" is no longer there?

I'm thinking that the handwriting descriptions are important here, but I can't work out why.

The biggest thing to stick out to me though is that Ramsay doesn't send any flayed skin with the letter. He supposedly has killed Stannis and the spearwives, and has taken Mance prisoner. But he doesn't send skin as proof, when he's done it twice before, both with Theon's skin (once to Asha, once to Robb and Catelyn)?

The letter is either written by Ramsay but is mostly lies, or it wasn't written by Ramsay and is a ruse to get Jon off the Wall.

[Kaitscralt]

I think that it was written by Ramsay but dictated by Mance, who holds him hostage or has tricked him into joining forces. Mance being a random hero that helps Jon/Stannis/anyone comes off as too cardboard to me. I think he has his own agenda and will never be happy until the Watch is defunct and gone.

The main issue with Mance writing it to get Jon to come is the Stannis element.

[Lord Godric]

The biggest thing to stick out to me though is that Ramsay doesn't send any flayed skin with the letter. He supposedly has killed Stannis and the spearwives, and has taken Mance prisoner. But he doesn't send skin as proof, when he's done it twice before, both with Theon's skin (once to Asha, once to Robb and Catelyn)?

I think this is proof of one of two things. Either the Manderly men brought back just a head that they claimed was Stannis and Ramsay saw it and ran to the rookery without having time to flay the little flesh that would be on the head or he is just lying. Personally I believe it is the first. I can't figure out all of the details about how the Manderly men were able to shake the Freys and avoid the treachery of the Karstarks without Roose or Ramsay finding out but that is certainly the way it seems.

[Andhaira]

The letter was a mixture of bullshit and some truths. basically, the battle never happened. Manderly probably attacked the Freys, and then went over to Stannis. The Boltons are still holed up in the Dreadfort. However, Ramasay probably did get his hands on Mance Raydar and most likely does have him in a cage. Everything else he could have gotten from torturing and flaying the spearwives. Pretty simple IMO.

[Ser Pistus]

The letter was a mixture of bullshit and some truths. basically, the battle never happened. Manderly probably attacked the Freys, and then went over to Stannis. The Boltons are still holed up in the Dreadfort. However, Ramasay probably did get his hands on Mance Raydar and most likely does have him in a cage. Everything else he could have gotten from torturing and flaying the spearwives. Pretty simple IMO.

If this is true, what is the point of the letter?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

The letter was a mixture of bullshit and some truths. basically, the battle never happened. Manderly probably attacked the Freys, and then went over to Stannis. The Boltons are still holed up in the Dreadfort. However, Ramasay probably did get his hands on Mance Raydar and most likely does have him in a cage. Everything else he could have gotten from torturing and flaying the spearwives. Pretty simple IMO.

Not sure I buy this. If anything, the spearwives would just give up information on Melisandre, Selyse and Shireen. I have the impression that the Boltons don't have much, if any, knowledge of Val and "Mance's" baby. Nor would they be expecting it. So I'm wondering why the letter includes references to Val and the baby. That's the sort of thing that would almost have to be given up or explained voluntarily. I also have a hard time believing that six wildling spearwives would break under torture that easily.

The more I think about it, the more I like the idea of Mance being involved in the letter. If he can lure Jon off the Wall, fighting could break out between the Night's Watch and the wildlings. If Jon brought Val and the baby, that would free them from the custody of Stannis' people. And the queen, Melisandre and Shireen could be taken hostage and used as bargaining against Stannis when he eventually arrives at Winterfell.

[Raventhal]

If this is true, what is the point of the letter?

To get his "toys" back. I have a feeling he thinks a battle happened in their favor when he sends the letter out but it's not the case.

The Manderly's likely turned on the Freys and the banker probably gave the warning letter about the Karstarks to Stannis and they were killed. Manderly plot with Stannis and say the Freys were lost in the snow and bring the Bolton's back Stannis sword and say he's dead and the Karstarks outed and killed. Then sets him up by letting Stannis men in and attack the Boltons.

Even better would be for the Manderly's to send Stannis sword ahead with a scout and tell them Stannis, Freys and Karstarks are all dead and they are returning. Ramsay goes sends letter on his own and boast but wants his toys back who he figures would head to the Wall because of the seeming alliance with Stannis. Like Ramsay did with Theon they let the Manderly's and Stannis men with no banners in and they kill everyone.

[King_In_The_North]

If this is true, what is the point of the letter?

1. The only thing keeping the Northmen together is Ned's (supposed) daughter. They won't stand besides flayers and traitord for two long without a Stark to unite them, so he must need have them back.

2. To get hostages (Selyse, Shireen, Mel) to be used against Stannis.