[ADwD Spoilers] Is the letter real?

[jxd]

Does Bowen Marsh know about Mance?

[Vernalagnia]

Honestly the biggest concern im having is this vague memory of grrm saying something about writing smaller battle scenes because of the tv show, ie they dont have the budget for big battles so he wont write them or he'll write them smaller. I really hope im wrong about that and maybe he was talking about his scripts for the episodes because fucking wow. If this is how he's going to handle the from now.. fucking letters about battles ? His descriptions of the battle scenes were always amongst his strongest writing but now ? Wait for the next book and see ?

Edit - So i don't sound like a total negative ass. I really enjoyed the book especially the focus on the north i just wanted a little more here maybe a bit of closure? "shrug" a single paragraph pov from thron or asha after jons stabbing would have done it for me i think.

I think it's fairly safe to say that we didn't see the battle on screen because the battle never happened. There's no way that he would just omit a battle from Asha's pov - especially since her men had just arrived.

[corbaekin]

Honestly the biggest concern im having is this vague memory of grrm saying something about writing smaller battle scenes because of the tv show, ie they dont have the budget for big battles so he wont write them or he'll write them smaller. I really hope im wrong about that and maybe he was talking about his scripts for the episodes because fucking wow. If this is how he's going to handle the from now.. fucking letters about battles ? His descriptions of the battle scenes were always amongst his strongest writing but now ? Wait for the next book and see ?

If this is true, it would be really ironic, given that GRRM went to writing ASOIAF specifically because it /wasn't/ something he could do for TV. He was writing for TV, and they wouldn't let him do epic battles with horses and magic, etc, etc, because it was too expensive, so he decided to start writing a book where no one could tell him he had to make the battles smaller.

Also, it's clear that HBO can just do what they want about battles, see what they did with big battles that were already written.

[Kaitscralt]

I think that while Stannis is not dead there must be more going on than some people here are suggesting. Ramsay is the one who convinced Theon to kill the common boys and use their corpses for Bran and Rickon. He understood that you can't make a boast like that without corpses.

Faking Bran and Rickon's deaths was easier because they were in hiding in dangerous territory, unlikely to show their faces and there's a good chance people wouldn't believe little kids making big claims.

Ramsay is surrounded by enemies. Stannis has an army hanging around plus the Wall is actively surveying the entire situation. My point is that you can't just say Stannis is dead if there's a chance he will walk out of the woods and rejoin his people. That would destroy the last drop of credibility the Boltons might have. It's not an easy boast to make and it's likely harder to fake a kings death than a childs.

So where the hell is Stannis? In the dungeons? If so, how? Or is there something bigger going on here.... did Ramsay even write the letter?

[Lost Time]

I doubt the letter because I honestly don't see how Stannis could've lost. He would've found out about the Karstark betrayal immediately at the end of Asha's chapter before the battle had been apparently underway. So there goes that possible disaster.

And while his own army was in tatters, he had strong and able northmen with him. What did Roose have? Riverland bitches who were just as lost in the snow as Stannis' men and a host of northmen who we know are plotting to kill him and their Frey "compatriots". By the time any such battle would have been met the Manderlys and pretty much all the Northmen at the Frey's side will have known the truth and I doubt very much they would've been fighting a 7 day battle with those treacherous Frey bastards against Stannis and their northern brothers supporting him.

There just is no way Stannis should've lost a 7 day battle. This series is full of surprises and unlikely outcomes (i.e. Ned's own quote), but it would require the complete and utter stupidity of the characters he has built up.

HOWEVER, there might be some truth to the letter as stated. The Mance thing is interesting. I had more faith in Mance not to screw up but it's possible he might've trying to breach Winterfell before Stannis and co. made their move and absolutely failed.

[Lord Varys]

I always thought Mance was doomed the moment the Arya rescue attempt failed and one of his women got shot. He was, after all, in the great hall in the presence of Roose himself, so I doubt that he would have gotten away.

[Lord Damian]

The Spearwife may have been captured and she may have spoke. Mace is tough and sly, he might have escaped but they only need one to talk. The battle, I want a description of it. What about the Bravos banker?, I think maybe Stannis is trying to get John off that wall because he thinks the Nothmen under him and the northmen that are begrudgingly supporting the Boltons, for now, will flock to him. he does not know about Bran and Rickon are alive. The battle is a mystery? was it a draw?, was Ramsay victorious or just fell back to Winterfell or did Stannis capture all and Ramsay escaped and is trying to lure Jon into being captured in order to gain a bargaining chip.

[Songstress]

Ya know... I blame a lack of sleep, and trying to burn through the whole book in less than 36 hours... but I totally did not even begin to get the fact that Abel was Mance. Even after I figured out that the girls who were with him were wildlings. I am so ashamed of myself. :huh:

But I think it's most likely that Stannis isn't dead - can't figure out why Ramsay would have thought Jon would have "Reek" and "Arya" if the Bolton men defeated Stannis.

Can't wait to see vengeance wreaked on the Boltons and Freys. Rawr.

[Edda van Heefmstra Ruston]

I also tend to think that Ramsay would probably have sent a little souvenir, the way he did to Asha, if he could. As has been pointed out, a claim of death and/or hostages is one thing, and proof is something else entirely.

[Slick Mongoose]

If everything in the letter is true, the Boltons are undisputed in their mastery of the North, so why write it? If you genuinely think Jon has the people you want, and you have the power to get them, why not just show up, rather than send a warning?

[Lord of the Night]

I say its fake, maybe some truth sprinkled into it but fake none the less. Many people in the Seven Kingdoms have heard of Lightbringer, and saw it on the Blackwater, so claiming he has the sword and knowledge of its abilities means nothing since its not a secret. Heads on the walls of Winterfell is just meaningless, no way to prove that or disprove it so likely he just wrote it to piss Jon off. Having Mance Rayder is a bit convincing but Rayder isn't that easily captured, he's been to Winterfell before under far more watchful eyes, likely they just captured the spearwife Frenya and tortured her. And if Stannis were beaten then he wouldn't ask for his bride and his Reek back, he'd have them already, so clearly he doesn't know where they are so he's likely lying.

Plus Ramsay clearly wrote it, Roose Bolton would probably have had the same feelings but he would have written it politely, and Ramsay is a lying animal. So nothing he says can be taken for true unless its totally confirmed.

Plus Asha has chapters in TWOW and if Stannis's host had fallen she'd likely be dead, Ramsay wouldn't care who she is. So Asha is still alive, question is did Roose see her value or is Ramsay lying. I say the latter but we won't know for some time.

Lord of the Night

[Zezibesh]

What about the Bravos banker?

If he is dead Ramsay is about to get his bowels full of the pointy end.

[jxd]

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Your false king lied, and so did you. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

Interesting, while Ramsay claims Stannis is dead, only the heads of "his friends" are on the wall of Winterfell.

[Slick Mongoose]

He's lost "Arya", he needs another Stark, and Jon is the closest thing he can get. And if he needs Jon he's in trouble, not in control with his enemies destroyed.

[Horza]

He's lost "Arya", he needs another Stark, and Jon is the closest thing he can get. And if he needs Jon he's in trouble, not in control with his enemies destroyed.

Yep, the letter has to be as inflammatory and sensational as possible, things are definitely not what they seem there.

[Eaglewood]

My take:

Roose is dead, Ramsay is in charge, and everyone trapped in Winterfell is fracked.

He has Mance, but Stannis hasn't moved. Why should he? All bluster and talk.

Over a fake Arya.

While the real one wanders are Braavos being blind. Ugh.

[JayDubya]

First - there's a lot of speculation here that I find bewildering.

1) A 7 day battle would make it _more_ likely people could sneak away safely, not less likely. Asha, Theon and Jeyne Poole are almost certainly safe, because they aren't warriors, and could easily slip away, unless the Bolton host completely surrounded the Baratheon host, which seems very unlikely.

2) Ramsay writes very provocatively, but he's not a complete moron (He's not as smart as he thinks he is, of course). He knows that Jon can check about the outcome(s) of the battles. He knows that Jon can easily sneak up on Winterfell and view the heads on the walls before committing to a larger action. Now, maybe Ramsay is stupid enough to think that lying is going to work here, but I am not convinced.

Having said that, what if:

a) Freys and Manderlys find Stannis's host.

B) There is some sort of pre-fight meeting. Manderly discovers that Stannis has Jeyne "Arya Stark" Poole, and Theon Greyjoy, and verifies that Bolton has no Stark, and that both younger Stark boys are alive.

c) Manderly immediately switches sides and together he and Stannis kill all the Freys.

d) (I am troubled by this, but only somewhat) Manderly convinces Stannis to give him "Lightbringer", and he heads back to Winterfell, claiming victory after 7 days. He shows "Lightbringer" as proof of that victory.

e) Ramsay has his little petulant fit and, unbeknowst to his father, sends a raven to the Wall to provoke Jon, certain that Jon has Jeyne Poole. He believes everything written in his letter, even if it is not true.

Stannis can then attack Winterfell w/the element of surprise, and kick Bolton ass.

[Ser Pistus]

Your false king is dead, bastard. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore.

Another interesting thing here. If Ramsay had the sword of Stannis, he'd know it is not magical.

[lobes604]

I loved all the North chapters, Davos, Bran, Jon, Theon, Asha, because there was a central narrative that tied them all together.

The Essos chapters were all over the place.

i concur !

[Vikingkingq]

I think it's a bluff. I think Manderlay turned on the Frays which cancels out the Karstarks, Stannis is more or less where he was maybe slightly stronger, and Ramsey's stuck in Winterfell with Northmen who hate his guts and now he has no fake Arya.