[ADwD Spoilers] Is the letter real?

[estrellas]

He lost his fake Arya so the only way he can truly claim the north is if Jon is dead, as he believes Jon to be the last heir of Winterfell. That is why he's goading Jon into battle; but he wouldn't do that if Stannis were still outside his walls. I think it's possible Stannis has RETREATED, but not died. Melisandre would have KNOWN if Stannis died, right? I know her fires "show only snow(Snow?)" but you'd think she'd have some inkling if Stannis had been killed.

Stannis was in bad sorts and I do not think he would have stormed Winterfell. I also don't think the entire Bolton army went out to meet with Stannis. They would have sent riders out for Jeyne in all directions. Not being able to find her, he would have grasped for any reason to kill Jon in order to eliminate the Starks. If you can't marry them, beat them.

[Vikingkingq]

Ramsay wouldn't, but I assume he occasionally takes orders from his pops, who takes orders from KL.

KL isn't exactly in a position to give orders at the moment, given the chaos that's erupting there.

[Steve Moss]

The Ramsay letter tells us several things, actually.

1. It shows that the Boltons are very aware of Jon and consider him a threat, as Cersei Lannister also does.

2. The letter is very personal and obviously designed to get a reaction. But I believe it is to get a reaction from the NW, not necessarily Jon. Remember, Slynt was in communication with Tywin, as others may also be. It can be safely assumed that when Slynt went, Tywin/Boltons found another person to communicate with, likely either Thorne or Bowen Marsh.

3. Jon is unpopular amongst a large segment of the NW. From military drills, to strict discipline, to letting wildlings pass the Wall, he has convinced many honest NW men that he is a problem, though probably not the majority. The problem for Jon, however, is that he largely keeps his enemies close and sends his friends away.

4. No one could act against Jon while Stannis had an army capable of exacting vengeance.

5. Ramsay is hated by the North. With Jeyne Poole exposed as a false Arya, Jon is the only "Stark" widely known to be living. A Stark who has, from a paranoid Bolton perspective, built an alliance between the NW, the wildlings and Stannis. With the false Arya exposed, Jon's threat level has increased ten-fold.

6. Ramsay has to know with the snow and distance that there is no way Jon would have the fake Arya or Theon, or that if he did he would give them up.

I think the letter was Ramsay's desperate attempt to assassinate Jon. He exposed Jon's "lies" to the NW. He told Jon's haters that Jon was no longer protected by Stannis as Stannis was defeated (allegedly). He demanded things, Stannis' queen, his daughter, Val, the monster, Melisandre, from Jon (i.e. the NW) in return to leaving them alone. These hostages, however, would only protect Bolton from the wrath of the wildlings and Stannis, not the North. Ramsay is hoping to remove Jon so the North has no central figure to rally behind. The Boltons' best bet of survival, now that fake Arya has escaped, is the chaos of civil war.

In short, I think:

1. Ramsay's letter primary purpose was a success in that it induced assassins to act against Jon for the "good of the NW." Whether Jon is truly dead is unknown.

2. Ramsay's letter, however, is a lie in that Stannis is a threat, at large.

3. The success of Ramsay's letter's secondary purpose, to induce the NW to give Ramsay hostages (Shireen, Melisandre, his wife) he can use against Stannis, is unknown.

I also think Manderly has not acted overtly against Bolton, yet, but that the Freys suffered an extraordinary amount of losses in the "confusion" of the storm. Manderly is increasing his strength while bleeding the Stark's enemies.

[Seerow]

Personally I'm inclined to believe the letter is real. Nobody reacted to Jon as though he were reading a hallucination rather than a real letter.

[bmulls]

Why would Ramsay write a letter if things were going so perfectly for Stannis? There has to be some chance it will be believed, some nugget of truth in it even if the majority of it is untrue, otherwise why write it at all?

Ramsay captured Mance and flayed him until he told everything he knows. Ramsay realizes he's totally effed and needs some leverage, otherwise he's going to starve. If he managed to trick Jon into handing over the Queen, the Princess, Melisandre and all the other hostages he demanded, he could demand supplies or barter for his life with Stannis.

The only reason he sent the letter to Jon is because Stannis' family is at the Wall.

Remember people, Mance did not know that Jon had let Tormund and 5000 or whatever Wildlings in, he only knew about the few that survived the battle. Mance, and thus Ramsay, don't know that Jon effectively commands an entire army of wildlings.

Edit: I also thought it was kind of strange that none of the wildlings/Nights Watch batted an eye when Jon revealed that Mance was still alive.

[Vikingkingq]

Ramsay captured Mance and flayed him until he told everything he knows. Ramsay realizes he's totally effed and needs some leverage, otherwise he's going to starve. If he managed to trick Jon into handing over the Queen, the Princess, Melisandre and all the other hostages he demanded, he could demand supplies or barter for his life with Stannis.

Except that he doesn't even try to trick Jon by insinuating that he has his sister so do it or else. He openly admits he has no cards to play and taunts Jon instead. Sort of the opposite of what he'd need to do to pull that off.

[Vikingkingq]

5. Ramsay is hated by the North. With Jeyne Poole exposed as a false Arya, Jon is the only "Stark" widely known to be living. A Stark who has, from a paranoid Bolton perspective, built an alliance between the NW, the wildlings and Stannis. With the false Arya exposed, Jon's threat level has increased ten-fold.

6. Ramsay has to know with the snow and distance that there is no way Jon would have the fake Arya or Theon, or that if he did he would give them up.

I think you're right about Ramsay's motivations here, but I have to question two points. First, there isn't time for Jeyne to be exposed - as you said, the distance and weather preclude messages from traveling far enough in time.

I think Ramsay's bigger problems are within his own alliance - with no "Arya" fake or not, he's got no hold on half the Northmen in his army.

[Julian Rayne]

I'm probably being thick but I have to ask:

1. Why was Crowfood Umber beating drums and blowing horns?

2. Did Manderly actually bake Freys into a pie?

[jurble]

I'm probably being thick but I have to ask:

1. Why was Crowfood Umber beating drums and blowing horns?

With the blizzard, it makes them think Stannis is right outside. He probably hopes to get them to sortie into the storm, and then die in the cold.

[Lyri]

I'm probably being thick but I have to ask:

1. Why was Crowfood Umber beating drums and blowing horns?

2. Did Manderly actually bake Freys into a pie?

1. To make Bolton and the rest at Winterfell think Stannis' entire army was out there surrounding the castle. So it's a bit of sleight of hand + intimidation. Better than knocking on the door and running I guess.

2. Yep, and apparently it was really tasty! Wyman had 6 pieces lol.

[Steel_Wind]

The letter lacks a seal. We might explain this by noting it was a letter from Ramsay, not Roose (who presumably wears the signet of the Dreadfort), but it is a small piece of evidence that it might not be real. It's equivocal.

If the Letter is a Forgery...

Now, if the letter itself is an outright fabrication, there is only one person who could have written it. Not Bowen Marsh, Queen Selyse or anybody other than... Melisandre. Mel is the only person on the Wall who knows the details of Mance's mission - other than Jon.

Why would Mel do this? To forestall Jon from marching to rescue Mother Mole. She decides she must take action to stop it. That's it. There is no other reason.

If that was her intent,it certainly succeeded. Jon changed his mind immediately about leading the rescue mission.

It's possible, I suppose. She uses information that includes visions she knows to be true, mixes it up with some information she knows to be false, and rolls the dice to prevent Jon from marching. She bets that Jon's honour will prevent him from actually marching on Winterfell, but the letter will keep him in Castle Black. And she gets it DEAD wrong. In fact, she causes Jon's death with his reaction to her letter.

That would certainly be a powerful incentive for Mel to try and reverse the damage and bring Jon back.

Still, if it was Mel, why would she write that Stannis was dead? It seems unlikely. But there may be a reason for it. If Stannis isn't dead, to include information within it that will prove to be false allows her to include the information about Mance in the letter, to be able to say later that the letter lied about Stannis and it lied about Mance, too. That allowed her to include information in the letter that would demonstrate to Jon that it must be true while still leaving her an "out" later regarding Mance. All while causing Jon to not march off to his doom. Maybe.

If the Letter is Genuinely from Ramsay ...

First off, if the letter is genuinely from Ramsay, then the only way that it could be real is if Ramsay Snow does not know Arya is a fake. Otherwise, there is no reason the letter would say what it says.

And this is the part that gets me. I don't think that Roose Bolton would leave that detail aside. It's too dangerous for Ramsay to not know that detail so he could take steps to keep Jeyne hidden when necessary. This one fact, more than any other, suggests to me that the letter is a fake and Mel forged it. Still, it remains equivocal.

Secondly, why would Ramsay even write it? He's a rather cunning bastard, but what does he hope to gain from it? To provoke Jon to march on Winterfell at the start of Winter? Why? What would be gained from this?

That's the part I don't get. What does Ramsay have to gain? Is the real aim an attempt to shake loose Stannis' supporters from the Wall and get them to sail home? Maybe.But if so, why not just write some other letter, and leave out the taunts aimed at Jon Snow?

If Ramsay did write it, then it seems very unlikely that Jeyne Poole and Theon Greyjoy would not have been captured if Stannis did attack and was defeated. Possible, sure, but highly unlikely.

The delivery of Tycho to Stannis' camp at the same time that Jeyne and Theon appear means that, at the least, the Karstarks treachery was forestalled and countered ahead of time. So the big ace up the sleeve of the Boltons is now spent.

As for whether or not Stannis actually would attack is unknown. His northmen would no longer have a reason to march on Winterfell to save "the Ned's girl". By the same token, they would be furious that Bolton held out Jeyne as Arya to legitmize Ramsay Snow. On balance, I think the Northmen in the camp are now fully his. They don't need to attack -- but will do so if asked.

Stannis no longer needs a victory at Winterfell to bind the northmen to his cause. He now has their anger at the Arya ruse to rely upon to bind them to him -- and he has already rescued Deepwood Motte and now has both the Greyjoys as hostages, including "Theon Turncloak". Plus -- above all -- he is about to get the backing of the Iron Bank of Braavos. That offers Stannis real hope. Why would he risk all on an attack? I don't see it, I really don't. Stannis is a very able commander, but a very cautious one, too. It is an unnecessary risk.

The only reason Stannis would attack is if he was left with no other choice. His army was about to melt away anyways, so it was a matter of use it or lose it. Win all and gain some provisions, or lose an army he was about to lose anyways. Maybe.

Could Stannis have attacked, lost, and yet Jeyne, Asha and Theon were sent elsewhere before the battle? Maybe.

So was it Fake, or Genuine, and if Genuine, was it true?

I don't know. I don't think there is any way for any of us to know at this point. I'd love for some other logic to be brought to bear on this, but right now? It really is equivocal.

Last point: Ann Groell, in her interview, suggests that there were two large pieces that were cut from the novel. Is it possible that the attack on Winterfell was one of those pieces?

The answer again? Maybe.

[Dalfiatach]

Send them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows

The letter is a fake, and was written either by Mance or, more likely, by Bowen Marsh and the other "senators".

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

If it's fake, it could also be forged by Marsh and Clydas, they needed an excuse to kill him and saying that he was breaking his vows would make for a good excuse.

[Manfryd Lothston]

The letter is a fake, and was written either by Mance or, more likely, by Bowen Marsh and the other "senators".

Can't really be fake.

1. The Nightwatchmen know nothing of Reek, and they know nothing of the Bastard's handwriting, sealing wax etc. since Jon burned Ramsay's first letter. They also do not know of Mance Rayder still being alive.

2. Mance would serve no purpose by writing such a letter.

_____________

My opinion:

1. The Boltons now view the Watch as their enemy, due to Mance & Stannis.

2. Roose is still alive, elsewise Ramsay would have styled himself Lord of the Dreadfort. But maybe he is wounded or otherwise indisposed, leaving the Bastard in charge.

3. Ramsay is TROLLING Jon and the Night's Watch to sow dissent and if possible lure them out from the Wall into the snow.

4. Stannis may still be around - Ramsay's known for putting someone else's heads on walls instead of the real deal, and he could have heard about Lightbringer from Mance. Or, STannis may have been defeated, which makes the Boltons that much more dangerous.

5. The conspiracy against Jon was long in the making, possibly masterminded by Alliser Thorne (who "never returned" from the ranging). They were waiting for the time to strike, and the hour has come.

[Lokhtar]

Stannis was killed off screen to make it easier for HBO :P.

[jack88]

My take:

I think that Roose is probably dead, Stannis is NOT dead, and Ramsay is just trolling Jon to get him to do something stupid

There were a lot of pissed off northmen in there with Roose, Stannis may have had time to get word of Arnolf Karstark's betrayal, and they lost "Arya" - I think anything could have happened. I'm not even sure they captured Mance Rayder or just one of his spearwives who told Ramsay anything

Fuck it's even possible that Mance took Roose Bolton out then and there - he was playing for him at the time of all the confusion going down, and the book made a point of showing us Mance Rayder kicking the shit out of Jon Snow in a practice match back at Castle Black

[Faint]

I remain continually surprised how little mentioned the prophecies at the House of the Undying are in these discussions. We know Stannis is not dead because we know the person to finally make an end to his misguided campaign is Daenerys Targaryen (a.k.a. "the slayer of lies").

Personally, I think his story is leading to a retreat to the Nightfort, his army in tatters, where he'll join Selyse and Shireen, having been abandoned both by the North and by Melisandre, the latter who will have finally hitched her ride to the real Azor Ahai. At that point I think he burns Shireen alive and becomes the Night's King.

[Galen M]

Fuck it's even possible that Mance took Roose Bolton out then and there - he was playing for him at the time of all the confusion going down, and the book made a point of showing us Mance Rayder kicking the shit out of Jon Snow in a practice match back at Castle Black

Sorry, Mance is not going to violate guest right, just not happening.

[Aranel]

Sorry, Mance is not going to violate guest right, just not happening.

By rights it was not Roose's table, so would that still be a violation?

[jack88]

Mance wouldn't even have had to be the one to break guest right, if he even honored the Boltons as having it to extend at Winterfell. Whoever sent the letter knew that Mance was there, and its implied he knew it was the singer. I'm 100% sure Ramsay and Roose would have been OK with violating guest right to try and kill him, and Mance would definitely have fought back.