[ADwD Spoilers] Young Griff

[Jon AS]

He seemed to remember just fine while being all nostalgic on top of Griffin's Roost

He remembers the generalities. Trying to remember exactly what somebody looked like 20 years ago is a whole different thing. Particularly if that person has been dead for the better part of those two decades and you don't have any pictures of them lying around.

[Howling North]

Seemed more precise then general given the eye color note he made. And I'd say yea if he'd only met the man on a visit to the Septon, but not someone you spent a good amount of your teenage-early adult years with, likely around a decade itself. That's years of his life right there as well and I don't read of any difficulties remembering Rhaegar. And it was only 5 years until little Aegon popped on his doorstep.

And once again, anyone have any legitimate justification for Varys lying to Kevan the dying on the matter?

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

Because Varys is more interested in telling Kevan about the qualities of this young king, not his lineage.

[Howling North]

Err, no he directly said No to him being dead, and don't play the word game with me on this one, Varys knew who Kevan meant as much as we did.

[Jon AS]

The thing that makes me think that Aegon is a fake is Dany's vision of the mummer's dragon. It's a visual, not just a name that might be interpreted one way or the other, and it clearly shows a fake dragon.

[Slick Mongoose]

The thing that makes me think that Aegon is a fake is Dany's vision of the mummer's dragon. It's a visual, not just a name that might be interpreted one way or the other, and it clearly shows a fake dragon.

"A cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd"

[Brendan Moody]

And once again, anyone have any legitimate justification for Varys lying to Kevan the dying on the matter?

*Wanting to paint the best possible picture of his motives to make Kevan feel better about what's happening ("I killed you so the true king could take his throne" beats "I killed you so this random kid I found could take the throne")

*Wanting to keep the truth from his little birds, who are nearby and presumably listening (we don't know what they've been told and what motivates them)

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

Err, no he directly said No to him being dead, and don't play the word game with me on this one, Varys knew who Kevan meant as much as we did.

You're whole premise is based on this idea that Varys is telling the truth. Varys lies all the time, so if your entire basis is that Varys must be telling the truth, then I don't think you have much to go on.

[Howling North]

You're whole premise is based on this idea that Varys is telling the truth. Varys lies all the time, so if your entire basis is that Varys must be telling the truth, then I don't think you have much to go on.

Under normal circumstances I'd say no. Under "dead man tell no tales then yes" there's absolutely no reason to ramble on about it other then giving Kevan the truth.

*Wanting to paint the best possible picture of his motives to make Kevan feel better about what's happening ("I killed you so the true king could take his throne" beats "I killed you so this random kid I found could take the throne")

*Wanting to keep the truth from his little birds, who are nearby and presumably listening (we don't know what they've been told and what motivates them)

Lying to him, when Varys has clearly shown his respect for Kevan, would be more of an insult. Especially since Kevan isn't likely to care whether Aegon's fake or not. Giving him the true reason justifies why he has to die, not the lie.

The seconds dubious given what he's already entrusted them with, a fraction of it would send Varys to chains, whether Aegon was real or not. Also what motivates them seems obvious, they're orphans. Varys practically raises and trains them, they know nothing else, so you have to expect quite a bit of obedience under those circumstances.

The thing that makes me think that Aegon is a fake is Dany's vision of the mummer's dragon. It's a visual, not just a name that might be interpreted one way or the other, and it clearly shows a fake dragon.

Viserys, anyone? Previous failures to raise Dragons by most of the Targrayean dynasty? Being a Targ or having their blood does not automatically make you a Dragon or mean you can tame one as we've clearly seen.

[Brendan Moody]

Lying to him, when Varys has clearly shown his respect for Kevan, would be more of an insult.

According to whose perspective? Varys'? Kevan's? Or yours? Only one of the three matters in this context.

Especially since Kevan isn't likely to care whether Aegon's fake or not.

He might not care, or he might. It depends on how he feels about a lot of things. Varys might know more about Kevan's beliefs than we do.

Also what motivates them seems obvious, they're orphans. Varys practically raises and trains them, they know nothing else, so you have to expect quite a bit of obedience under those circumstances.

But we don't know what he has or hasn't told them about his own grand purpose. I could see him feeding them a pleasant story about the heroic exile prince to justify all their spying. Speculative? Of course. But so is the notion that Varys would never ever lie to a dying man.

[Ser Greguh]

I'll also posit that perhaps "Aegon" could be considered a prime candidate for one of Daenerys's Three Treasons.

ETA: Let's not forget that Varys was speaking to more than Kevan. There were Little Birds watching, and listening, and while Varys may trust them, I think there would be a limit to that, and Varys may not be willing to risk that one of them might take such ridiculously sensitive information (such as Varys's Aegon being a fake) and betray him with it. A minor risk, probably, but Varys is a cautious man.

[Jeejee]

Does anyone find the idea that Varys switched out the babies ridiculous? Like something that happens in a fairytale!

Exchanging the babies requires forethought. While Varys could have planned for the sack of the city, I don't think he could have anticipated when it would occur. Are we to believe that he bought a lookalike child, hid the baby somewhere about the castle for who knows how long, and then switched the babies without Elia noticing?

It seems more likely that Varys bought a lookalike child...then gave that kid to Griff, saying it was Aegon, in the hopes that they could raise the perfect king. (Although I also really like the theory that Aegon is actually Illyrio's son. Illyrio + Varys, scamming an entire country! A natural extension of their unique friendship?)

We know, from Barristan, that Varys was deliberately provoking Aerys into increasing bouts of paranoia. If Varys truly was all for the Targaryens he wouldn't have tried to turn Aerys against Rhaegar. Varys is clearly out for his own ends. This smacks of his and Illyrio's partnership taking place on a larger stage.

[Howling North]

It's Varys, its the type of thing I EXPECT him to do. He's the Master of Whisperers, subterfuge is his charge. And it wouldn't have been difficult to see things going south after the Battle of the Trident.

He could have switched them out immediately, the whole point of a look-alike child is to well... look like the child he's pretending to be. So that strikes against hiding him, for pete's sake Craster's child is posing for Mance's right now, how alike can they be. Babies are much easier to switch out with. And from Aegon's story on the matter, Elia may have given him up willingly.

Yes, because raising a fake that can pass for a Targrayean Prince, convince everyone else that he is said Targaryean Prince after his death, especially said Prince's closest friend, investing tutors, mercenary companies, and hiding him for 17 bloody years so that he might one day claim the Iron Throne in spite of the fact that everyone and their mother is going to believe he's fake, sounds so much easier? And no I'm not going to buy Illyrio being his father... how easy would that be to spot depending on how he grew up? Not to mention that the fact that Aegon still has family in Dorne to compare with and convince he is of their blood!

Maybe, or it could simply have been Varys trying to provoke Rhaegar to do exactly that, depose his erratic and insane father. We know practically everyone (who wasn't Robert) had a high opinion of Rhaegar and thought he would have made a better king then his predecessors. And yet know Rhaegar was extremely reluctant and slow to act on that point, understandable to some degree. But who would the realm choose if Rhaegar and Aerys confronted one another? I thought so. I think Varys is doing what he believes to be serving the realm as best he can, even if we might disagree with his methods.

According to whose perspective? Varys'? Kevan's? Or yours? Only one of the three matters in this context.

He might not care, or he might. It depends on how he feels about a lot of things. Varys might know more about Kevan's beliefs than we do.

But we don't know what he has or hasn't told them about his own grand purpose. I could see him feeding them a pleasant story about the heroic exile prince to justify all their spying. Speculative? Of course. But so is the notion that Varys would never ever lie to a dying man.

I'm inferring based on how Varys is responding to Kevan, he's very frank and remorseful over the whole thing. The fact that he even bothers when he has no obligation to do so explain shows that courteousy. Lying detracts from that, Kevan isn't a loved one Varys needs to protect emotionally for pete's sake.

He viewed both equally problematic regardless, as he should so it doesn't really change anything for Kevan, we've actually been inside his HEAD if you recall. And just as easily telling him Aegon was still alive might have made him feel worse, as Varys describes how Aegon is a legitimate threat to Tommen's rule, his own blood matter more to Kevan then others or a higher/moral cause will, we've seen that with Tywin, Tyrion, and Cersei despite what he knows about or believes of them.

They do much more then that you do realize right? Varys has his fingers stuck in a lot of pies and a lot of questionable actions. I don't think worrying about their moral compass is going to be the biggest issue here. They're children, impressionable, obedient. Being mute shows the extent that they've been trained by him.

I simply can't find a logical reason. Varys has at least that in his motives and actions. He owes Kevan nothing, and what he says isn't likely going to make Kevan feel any better. Now if George wants to some how make that happen, then its up to him but right now there's nothing here to indicate that.

[Aelinor Keath]

Does anyone find the idea that Varys switched out the babies ridiculous? Like something that happens in a fairytale!

Exchanging the babies requires forethought. While Varys could have planned for the sack of the city, I don't think he could have anticipated when it would occur. Are we to believe that he bought a lookalike child, hid the baby somewhere about the castle for who knows how long, and then switched the babies without Elia noticing?

It seems more likely that Varys bought a lookalike child...then gave that kid to Griff, saying it was Aegon, in the hopes that they could raise the perfect king. (Although I also really like the theory that Aegon is actually Illyrio's son. Illyrio + Varys, scamming an entire country! A natural extension of their unique friendship?)

We know, from Barristan, that Varys was deliberately provoking Aerys into increasing bouts of paranoia. If Varys truly was all for the Targaryens he wouldn't have tried to turn Aerys against Rhaegar. Varys is clearly out for his own ends. This smacks of his and Illyrio's partnership taking place on a larger stage.

Varys could of swapped the babies when he realized the rebellion was coming as a security measure. And you're assuming Elia didn't know. Varys could have come to her and told her that her son was in danger and he should be hidden in Dorne and a decoy kid be keep in the palace until the danger had passed.

[Ran]

He didn't lie, though. All Kevan said was "Dead. He's dead." He being Aegon with his army. That's the boy's name, no matter who he really is, so... where's the lie, again? And where's the word game?

The children are mute, BTW, because he had their tongues taken out, not because they've been trained to hold their tongues...

As to baby switching, who said Elia didn't know her child was being switched, anyway? She had wanted to leave for Dragonstone, Aerys refused, if Varys quietly told her he could get Aegon to a more secure location by switching babies...

That said, it seems quite probable to me that a switch never did happen, he just said he did it to explain having this boy that he's calling Aegon.

[banditry]

It's Varys, its the type of thing I EXPECT him to do. He's the Master of Whisperers, subterfuge is his charge. And it wouldn't have been difficult to see things going south after the Battle of the Trident.

He could have switched them out immediately, the whole point of a look-alike child is to well... look like the child he's pretending to be. So that strikes against hiding him, for pete's sake Craster's child is posing for Mance's right now, how alike can they be. Babies are much easier to switch out with. And from Aegon's story on the matter, Elia may have given him up willingly.

Yes, because raising a fake that can pass for a Targrayean Prince, convince everyone else that he is said Targaryean Prince after his death, especially said Prince's closest friend, investing tutors, mercenary companies, and hiding him for 17 bloody years so that he might one day claim the Iron Throne in spite of the fact that everyone and their mother is going to believe he's fake, sounds so much easier? And no I'm not going to buy Illyrio being his father... how easy would that be to spot depending on how he grew up? Not to mention that the fact that Aegon still has family in Dorne to compare with and convince he is of their blood!

Maybe, or it could simply have been Varys trying to provoke Rhaegar to do exactly that, depose his erratic and insane father. We know practically everyone (who wasn't Robert) had a high opinion of Rhaegar and thought he would have made a better king then his predecessors. And yet know Rhaegar was extremely reluctant and slow to act on that point, understandable to some degree. But who would the realm choose if Rhaegar and Aerys confronted one another? I thought so. I think Varys is doing what he believes to be serving the realm as best he can, even if we might disagree with his methods.

I'm inferring based on how Varys is responding to Kevan, he's very frank and remorseful over the whole thing. The fact that he even bothers when he has no obligation to do so explain shows that courteousy. Lying detracts from that, Kevan isn't a loved one Varys needs to protect emotionally for pete's sake.

He viewed both equally problematic regardless, as he should so it doesn't really change anything for Kevan, we've actually been inside his HEAD if you recall. And just as easily telling him Aegon was still alive might have made him feel worse, as Varys describes how Aegon is a legitimate threat to Tommen's rule, his own blood matter more to Kevan then others or a higher/moral cause will, we've seen that with Tywin, Tyrion, and Cersei despite what he knows about or believes of them.

They do much more then that you do realize right? Varys has his fingers stuck in a lot of pies and a lot of questionable actions. I don't think worrying about their moral compass is going to be the biggest issue here. They're children, impressionable, obedient. Being mute shows the extent that they've been trained by him.

I simply can't find a logical reason. Varys has at least that in his motives and actions. He owes Kevan nothing, and what he says isn't likely going to make Kevan feel any better. Now if George wants to some how make that happen, then its up to him but right now there's nothing here to indicate that.

I agree with you. A fake Aegon would just be too hard to sell; the real thing is going to be hard enough. Too many people in Westeros know the Targaryens all too well. I just don't see them trying to pass off some random youth, even if it's Illyrio's son, even if the features are similar, as a Targaryen.

[The Pale Griffin]

Going back to the Mummer's Dragon....what if it is the possessive sense of Mummer's. As in the dragon belonged to the mummer, hence the mummer's dragon. This dragon belonging to Varys, who was a mummer, hence the Mummer's Dragon.

[Ran]

And the false dragon that Moqorro sees in the flames?

Aegon's not who he believes he is. Bank on it. :)

[Ser Greguh]

Yeah, that's the other point. Varys never mentions a baby swap, or a son of Rhaegar, just a child named Aegon that has been groomed to rule since before he could walk.

[olennaredyne]

Does anyone find the idea that Varys switched out the babies ridiculous? Like something that happens in a fairytale!

Exchanging the babies requires forethought. While Varys could have planned for the sack of the city, I don't think he could have anticipated when it would occur. Are we to believe that he bought a lookalike child, hid the baby somewhere about the castle for who knows how long, and then switched the babies without Elia noticing?

I also thought it felt kind of silly at first, but look at the situation - we know that at that point, Rhaegar was already dead. Viserys and his mother were sent away for their safety. Aerys insisted on keeping Elia and her children as a sort of collateral to guarantee Dornish loyalty, but the crown prince is far too precious to keep in King's Landing - even if Aerys didn't see reason, Varys could have discreetly arranged the switch with Elia's consent, and Elia - god knows if I were her, I'd have done it.

But major twists are usually accompanied by ample foreshadowings, and I'm a bit disappointed that there wasn't any clues or hints in the previous books to indicate this all along. That's why, though the development makes perfect sense, feels a bit like a cop-out. It's a very typical fantasy-genre twist - everyone saved by a dead prince who turns out alive out of the blue, and is a perfect savior to boot. Bit lame.