[ADwD Spoilers] Young Griff

[Ygritte]

It's a very typical fantasy-genre twist - everyone saved by a dead prince who turns out alive out of the blue, and is a perfect savior to boot. Bit lame.

Ah, but I think he's going to fail miserably, thereby turning the cliche upside down. ;)

[Howling North]

He didn't lie, though. All Kevan said was "Dead. He's dead." He being Aegon with his army. That's the boy's name, no matter who he really is, so... where's the lie, again? And where's the word game?

The children are mute, BTW, because he had their tongues taken out, not because they've been trained to hold their tongues...

As to baby switching, who said Elia didn't know her child was being switched, anyway? She had wanted to leave for Dragonstone, Aerys refused, if Varys quietly told her he could get Aegon to a more secure location by switching babies...

That said, it seems quite probable to me that a switch never did happen, he just said he did it to explain having this boy that he's calling Aegon.

It IS a word game because we know, and Varys no doubt knows WHICH Aegon Kevan is referring too. That's a long stretch to make a play on words when you're making a confession to a dying man you don't even need to answer. This isn't like with Ned and his mention of Wylla to Robert <_<

I know that, and its my entire point. Look at the Unsullied, they had their genitals removed. Have they been disloyal? No, because they wiped it from their personalities. If Varys is able to go that far then he's trained these children thoroughly and along the same lines too keep them under control.

The person I was responding too, that was my entire point, that Elia could have willingly given up Aegon to safety.

I don't see anything to indicate that it didn't, I have seen some things that say it did, so for now I'm going with it did at this point in time. And it'd still work with the whole fake dragon theory, as I've used Viserys and can even go back to most of the Targaryean Dynasty for on the matter. Heck, while I'm at it we're still missing Aurane Waters aren't we? He's still got a chance to throw his hat in the ring.

[Ran]

Yes. I fear Aegon hasn't got long to live. His insistence on leading the attack on Storm's End seems ... overly-bold and aggressive, the very thing that Tyrion and then Connington were concerned about.

[Howling North]

It'd be too early though in my opinion, with Dany likely going to be a while sorting out Meeren and rescuing her followers, Aegon's the only real piece on the board that's making any moves. Without him this whole invasion flounders, and what'll the Golden Company do then? Though this does leave Jon an opening if he ever does come back and if they theory is true...

[CatelynFan]

Ah, but I think he's going to fail miserably, thereby turning the cliche upside down.

Oh, Lord, how I hope that's the case.

[Ygritte]

Oh, Lord, how I hope that's the case.

Whether he's real or not, I suspect he's going to be a Perkin Warbeck and come to an early, sad end (or if he becomes King, he'll be Aegon the Very Brief). I could be wrong, but I suspect GRRM understands that he can't just bring in a random guy in book 5 and have us care as much as we do about Jon or Dany or whomever we happen to favor for the throne--and I think it's also a take on the fact that this kind of thing really did happen when countries were unstable. Suddenly "long-lost princes" would come out of the woodwork all over the place.

[Ser Greguh]

Oh, Lord, how I hope that's the case.

Just from a meta level, I think you have nothing to fear. GRRM likes defying expectations, but he's not going to introduce a Targaryen (almost) out of nowhere and suddenly have him be more important than the Targaryen he's been setting up for the entirety of the series. That would be sloppy beyond belief IMO. On the other hand, it's about right for a False Crisis, False Dawn sort of thing.

[Ygritte]

It'd be too early though in my opinion, with Dany likely going to be a while sorting out Meeren and rescuing her followers, Aegon's the only real piece on the board that's making any moves. Without him this whole invasion flounders, and what'll the Golden Company do then? Though this does leave Jon an opening if he ever does come back and if they theory is true...

Ooh, good point. This is something to shake up the plot and keep everybody occupied while Dany regroups and Jon resurrects.

[kg1982]

Aegon is sort of dumb.. Storm's End suggests that. My take on Aegon is that he's a subversion of the whole King Arthur story, the hidden heir given a "proper" education and shaped into the world's greatest king. I think that he was given a pretty useless education. I don't think that Aegon's time among the fishermen is going to help when the Ice Zombies invade the realm. I also don't think that he's actually a Targaryen.

However, I'm not sure why someone as smart as Varys would have fallen for fake!Aegon! I'm still wondering if we actually know Varys endgame.

[Basileus777]

Aegon is sort of dumb.. Storm's End suggests that. My take on Aegon is that he's a subversion of the whole King Arthur story, the hidden heir given a "proper" education and shaped into the world's greatest king. I think that he was given a pretty useless education. I don't think that Aegon's time among the fishermen is going to help when the Ice Zombies invade the realm. I also don't think that he's actually a Targaryen.

However, I'm not sure why someone as smart as Varys would have fallen for fake!Aegon! I'm still wondering if we actually know Varys endgame.

I agree. Varys speech about how Aegon was raised to be the perfect King screams like a setup for Aegon to fail. He's going to meet some tragic end.

[Howling North]

Whether he's real or not, I suspect he's going to be a Perkin Warbeck and come to an early, sad end (or if he becomes King, he'll be Aegon the Very Brief). I could be wrong, but I suspect GRRM understands that he can't just bring in a random guy in book 5 and have us care as much as we do about Jon or Dany or whomever we happen to favor for the throne--and I think it's also a take on the fact that this kind of thing really did happen when countries were unstable. Suddenly "long-lost princes" would come out of the woodwork all over the place.

Then again... both Dany and Jon haven't exactly had the best of luck with ruling thus far.... it'd be convenient for George to continue along that lines and had them simply help Aegon to the throne, while passing on the opportunity themselves. Though this is just me speculating.

Aegon is sort of dumb.. Storm's End suggests that. My take on Aegon is that he's a subversion of the whole King Arthur story, the hidden heir given a "proper" education and shaped into the world's greatest king. I think that he was given a pretty useless education. I don't think that Aegon's time among the fishermen is going to help when the Ice Zombies invade the realm. I also don't think that he's actually a Targaryen.

However, I'm not sure why someone as smart as Varys would have fallen for fake!Aegon! I'm still wondering if we actually know Varys endgame.

Errr, are we REALLY going to hold something that he and most of the realm aren't even aware of against him right now? He just landed on Westeros, save the zombies for later. And Varys was making a point about how Aegon had spent time with commoners and understood them better then most. His education will help in RULING, but we're still at the stage where he has to win the throne. And taking Storm's End himself, while reckless, is also strategically valuable in shoring up his claim and his image to the rest of the Seven Kingdoms.

Which is why I'm in the camp that says he's real, but anyway...

[Jeejee]

Varys could of swapped the babies when he realized the rebellion was coming as a security measure. And you're assuming Elia didn't know. Varys could have come to her and told her that her son was in danger and he should be hidden in Dorne and a decoy kid be keep in the palace until the danger had passed.

True. But wouldn't she have wanted a fake Rhaenys too? Other than confining the family to the castle, was anyone keeping a close eye on the three?

I suppose my problem with this whole scenario is that it seems too pat. Varys anticipated the attack and went to pains to protect the Targaryen heirs...why? Up until that point had he shown any loyalty to the Targaryens? He was actively tearing the family apart by stoking Aerys' feelings of paranoia. And what reasons did he have to be loyal? He was brought over by Aerys rather late in the game, when the king had already begun to go insane.

I think it's telling that Varys (and Illyrio) don't come from noble families - they were both nobodies. A random child (or Illyrio's son) sitting on the throne could appeal to them.

[Jeejee]

Under normal circumstances I'd say no. Under "dead man tell no tales then yes" there's absolutely no reason to ramble on about it other then giving Kevan the truth.

Lying to him, when Varys has clearly shown his respect for Kevan, would be more of an insult. Especially since Kevan isn't likely to care whether Aegon's fake or not. Giving him the true reason justifies why he has to die, not the lie.

The seconds dubious given what he's already entrusted them with, a fraction of it would send Varys to chains, whether Aegon was real or not. Also what motivates them seems obvious, they're orphans. Varys practically raises and trains them, they know nothing else, so you have to expect quite a bit of obedience under those circumstances.

Varys isn't going through this little spiel out of respect for Kevan, he's toying with him. Is there any reason why he couldn't have given him a quick, painless death? Instead he watches Kevan painfully slump over while nattering on about how cold it is and how, despite Kevan's best efforts, the realm will fall apart. The whole scene struck me as cruel.

[Howling North]

As I said before, faking an infant is infinitely easier then say a little girl already grown and able to talk from her apparent cries for Rhaegar to protect her.

I don't think anyone could have anticipated Rhaegar's crowning and subsequent absconding of Lyanna though. I'm of the opinion that Varys, like most of Westeros is seems, shared a favorable opinion of Rhaegar, but as Rhaegar was reluctant to oppose his father wanted to provoke the young man into finally confronting and deposing Aerys. That would also make sense in regards to how much faith he's placing on Rhaegar's son. Then again I think most people besides Robert are secretly Rhaegar fans, nobody besides him EVER seem to have anything bad to say about the man.

Still too risky in my opinion, what would have happened if he started developing features that resembled Illyrio as he grew up? They were giving him to one of Rhaegar's best friends to RAISE. I'd sooner go with Aegon really being a descendant of Blackfyre as this time. He'll at least have dragons blood to justify trying to get one from Dany in the beginning then.

[Jeejee]

Still too risky in my opinion, what would have happened if he started developing features that resembled Illyrio as he grew up? They were giving him to one of Rhaegar's best friends to RAISE. I'd sooner go with Aegon really being a descendant of Blackfyre as this time. He'll at least have dragons blood to justify trying to get one from Dany in the beginning then.

Maybe Illyrio's morbid obesity is intentional. (Just sayin'. I haven't actually decided if I believe the boy is his son versus some random child who was blond enough to play the part.)

We've been deliberately exposed to the fact that dragons can sense Targaryen blood. This must be important - either to reveal that someone has Targaryen blood (Jon? Tyrion?) or to show that some one does not.

[Howling North]

And so Varys and Illyrio was willing to risk such a thing if Aegon was a fake why then? Hell even Targ blood doesn't mean your safe, look at Quentyn. The best chance for Aegon to get a dragon is for him to have had Targaryean blood, pure as possible, at least so far as everybody else knows.

[Lord Varys]

So Varys is going to end up like some kind of castrated Merlin, then? We already have such a guy with Joseph Fiennes, thank you ;-).

The birds are not all mute, by the way. The boy who lured Kevan into the trap was a bird as well, and he was there with a dagger as well. He has to have a tongue, or else he could not have delivered the message, I assume.

I don't buy the whole Blackfyre theory. What would be the point in that twist? Varys seems to want to pacify the Realm, not fighting some long lost battles. And I'm not sure about him being the end of Aerys's rule. That is not his style, nor would Connington approve of his plans if he saw him as involved in the Targaryen downfall.

The story about the child switch makes sense. Varys seems to buy birds in KL besides being getting them from Pentos, and the story that he switched Aegon, the male heir and the babe, with a rather similar looking boy shortly after the Trident fits too well to be a lie. At least in my opinion.

But we are going to see it, eventually.

[Whitering]

So Varys is going to end up like some kind of castrated Merlin, then? We already have such a guy with Joseph Fiennes, thank you ;-).

The birds are not all mute, by the way. The boy who lured Kevan into the trap was a bird as well, and he was there with a dagger as well. He has to have a tongue, or else he could not have delivered the message, I assume.

I don't buy the whole Blackfyre theory. What would be the point in that twist? Varys seems to want to pacify the Realm, not fighting some long lost battles. And I'm not sure about him being the end of Aerys's rule. That is not his style, nor would Connington approve of his plans if he saw him as involved in the Targaryen downfall.

The story about the child switch makes sense. Varys seems to buy birds in KL besides being getting them from Pentos, and the story that he switched Aegon, the male heir and the babe, with a rather similar looking boy shortly after the Trident fits too well to be a lie. At least in my opinion.

But we are going to see it, eventually.

He can sell the lie to Connington just as well as to everyone else. Likely the only person that knows half of what Varys is up to is Illyrio.

[Howling North]

The birds are not all mute, by the way. The boy who lured Kevan into the trap was a bird as well, and he was there with a dagger as well. He has to have a tongue, or else he could not have delivered the message, I assume.

That or the guard who announced him could read. Has been known to happen.

[jurble]

Maybe Illyrio's morbid obesity is intentional. (Just sayin'. I haven't actually decided if I believe the boy is his son versus some random child who was blond enough to play the part.)

We've been deliberately exposed to the fact that dragons can sense Targaryen blood. This must be important - either to reveal that someone has Targaryen blood (Jon? Tyrion?) or to show that some one does not.

Eh, even if Aegon is not Targaryen, he's certainly Valyrian. I don't see why the dragons wouldn't react positively to anyone descended from dragonlords. Perhaps a whore from Lys could walk up and start petting Dany's dragons.