[ADwD Spoilers] The Varys-Illyrio Conspiracy

[wolverinehokie]

The Targs were not the only one with dragons. They were the only ones with dragons in Westeros. Dragon eggs could have come from any number of places.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Look at all the gifts Dany receives from Illyrio, or any other character for that matter - does this imply that they could be Dany's father/motehr/whatever? No, of course not.

Young Griff stayed with Illyrio for years, so it's natural that some sort of fondness has developed for the boy. Also, if you were helping a Targaryan get to the Throne - wouldn't you want to ensure you're on his good side?

I really dislike the fake Aegon theory, not because I don't see the evidence (I think evidence is there for both cases). I simply dislike it on the fact that it a weak subplot to introduce this late in the game and if anything would only serve to further complicate the storyline - in a negative fashion.

Agreed. Having a fake Aegon is pointless

[KhalRhaego]

According to Illyrio, Dany's eggs came "from the Shadow Lands beyond Asshai." If true there may still be more than Dany's and the Targaryen dragon eggs -- who may have been destroyed -- around. Dany has also heard tales of dragon eggs which may suggest that they are rare but not that rare.

In AGoT Bran sees to Asshai by the Shadow, where dragons stirred beneath the sunrise. so we know of dragons in that part of the world too.

The Targs were not the only one with dragons. They were the only ones with dragons in Westeros. Dragon eggs could have come from any number of places.

Duly noted. But they are still very rare, which still begs the question why Ilyrio would give Dany three eggs as a present instead of just one. It's not like they're steak knives where he'd look cheap not giving her the entire set. At the very least either he believed in the "Dragon has three heads" prophecy so three eggs was at least symbolic (even if, for arguments sake, he didn't believe they'd hatch) or he gave away an extremely expensive unneccesary present to someone who he thought was going to die anyway.

If he thought it was symbolic, and we now know that he knew about Prince Aegon's existance, why didn't isn't didn't he save one of the eggs just as some sort of symbolic guesture for him as well?

[Lord Godric]

The Targs were not the only one with dragons. They were the only ones with dragons in Westeros. Dragon eggs could have come from any number of places.

They were the only ones with dragons after the Doom of Valyria. Before the Doom dragonlords were spread across Valyria, even controlling the Free Cities. Then the Targaryens went west to Dragonstone and the Doom happened destroying all the other dragonlords. So only the Targaryens and their dragons were left.

After the Doom, while there was still dragon eggs around, as we see from Illyrio, they aren't readily hatching for anyone besides Targaryens.

[Markus]

At the very least either he believed in the "Dragon has three heads" prophecy so three eggs was at least symbolic (even if, for arguments sake, he didn't believe they'd hatch) or he gave away an extremely expensive unneccesary present to someone who he thought was going to die anyway.

The question is how valuable dragon eggs truly are. Sure, they are rare and valuable but it may be that Dany is right when she thinks: It was a truly magnificent gift, though she knew that Illyrio could afford to be lavish. He had collected a fortune in horses and slaves for his part in selling her to Khal Drogo.

This suggests that while the eggs were a great gift that Illyrio had made a much greater fortune when he sold Dany and so could be generous.

If he thought it was symbolic, and we now know that he knew about Prince Aegon's existance, why didn't isn't didn't he save one of the eggs just as some sort of symbolic guesture for him as well?

When Young Griff doesn't actually receive any dragon eggs this lends itself to them not being symbolic or all that important to Varys and Illyrio one might say.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

If he thought it was symbolic, and we now know that he knew about Prince Aegon's existance, why didn't isn't didn't he save one of the eggs just as some sort of symbolic guesture for him as well?

Perhaps because he knows Aegon is no Targ and hence could never hatch the egg?

(I missed the first part of your post - I'm assuming here that Illyrio was hoping Viserys/Daenerys could hatch the eggs).

[KhalRhaego]

Agreed. Having a fake Aegon is pointless

Having a fake Aegon is pointless if his fake identity is later revealed to the entire kingdom. It's not pointless if he assumes the throne and everyone believes him to be the real Aegon. Maybe the point from Varys is to get a ruler on the throne that isn't going to go Targaryen crazy on him later, but who is still looked on as being in the line of succession and therefore the "rightful" ruler. From our modern standpoint we want rulers who are capable, in Westros people aren't elected--it's the bloodline that matters. Robert and Ned both fought Aerys, but Robert became king because he had Targaryen blood and therefore the better claim to the throne. Maybe it's a commentary about giving people what they need instead of what they think they want (assuming they want a Targaryen on the throne).

And if that's the case maybe Varys isn't as pro-Targaryen as he seems now. Dany could've been given the eggs as an opportunity to let her destroy herself.

[longlivestark]

While it is true you could buy an army with the eggs, it would be an army of SELLSWORDS, by trading Dany to Drogo Illyrio planned to get an army of Dothraki who don't even believe in gold, so really he did plan to get an army, so he just tossed the eggs in as a bonus.

[Jon AS]

This suggests that while the eggs were a great gift that Illyrio had made a much greater fortune when he sold Dany and so could be generous.

Yeah, this is part of throwing the most lavish wedding for the most powerful Dothraki Khal around. Illyrio wants Drogo to give Viserys his army, that's part of he plan, so it's in his best interest to impress him with generosities like this. The less pleased the Khal, the longer he will take to honour his part of the "deal".

[KhalRhaego]

Yeah, this is part of throwing the most lavish wedding for the most powerful Dothraki Khal around. Illyrio wants Drogo to give Viserys his army, that's part of he plan, so it's in his best interest to impress him with generosities like this. The less pleased the Khal, the longer he will take to honour his part of the "deal".

Yeah, but there is no evidence that the eggs were somehow valued by Drogo. They were more a gift to Dany. There is also no evidence that Drogo knew what they were worth, and Dany didn't know until Jorah told her. Illyrio seemed to downplay their worth.

While it is true you could buy an army with the eggs, it would be an army of SELLSWORDS, by trading Dany to Drogo Illyrio planned to get an army of Dothraki who don't even believe in gold, so really he did plan to get an army, so he just tossed the eggs in as a bonus.

He bought an army that was unwilling to cross the poison water. Given that, it's hard to convince me that they'd be more valuable than sellswords. Even Ned at one point said something about not being worried about the Dothraki crossing the sea and he's one of our most reliable POVs. Also, it's not like Illyrio had any idea that Drogo would end up loving Dany, so it's not like he could've assumed that they's automatically be more loyal to Dany and especially to Viserys. She was an outsider. They might have loved their fighting, but they could've just as easily gone to Westros, raped and looted, and done nothing constructive to get Viserys or Dany on the throne. Khal Drogo was their king and the Dothraki never showed any respect for Viserys, and I don't see that magically changing on the other side of the water.

[Jon AS]

Yeah, but there is no evidence that the eggs were somehow valued by Drogo. They were more a gift to Dany. There is also no evidence that Drogo knew what they were worth, and Dany didn't know until Jorah told her. Illyrio seemed to downplay their worth.

You can be sure that a Khal (who plunders cities for a living) has a pretty good idea of the worth of dragon eggs. Illyrio's generosity to the Khal's bride is definitely going to be noticed.

He bought an army that was unwilling to cross the poison water. Given that, it's hard to convince me that they'd be more valuable than sellswords.

Sellswords can be bought with simple gold. An army of Dothraki gained through the word of their Khal - which was secured by marrying him to the last Targaryen princess (who also happens to be quite the looker) - is definitely going to be more useful. Getting them across the sea doesn't seem such a big thing, they don't like it and would never do it out of their own free will, but if they give their word they won't refuse. And they aren't supposed to go it alone, they were supposed to support the biggest, most elite sellsword company in the Free Cities (the one that famously never breaks a contract and has a vested interest in going to Westeros).

[KhalRhaego]

Sellswords can be bought with simple gold. An army of Dothraki gained through the word of their Khal - which was secured by marrying him to the last Targaryen princess (who also happens to be quite the looker) - is definitely going to be more useful. Getting them across the sea doesn't seem such a big thing, they don't like it and would never do it out of their own free will, but if they give their word they won't refuse. And they aren't supposed to go it alone, they were supposed to support the biggest, most elite sellsword company in the Free Cities (the one that famously never breaks a contract and has a vested interest in going to Westeros).

I will concede that the Dothraki are probably the more superior army and I would definitely want them on my side (rather than against me), but I still don't think that it was a terribly good plan to begin with. What was the plan for after Viserys was on the throne? Were the Dothraki just gonna get back on their ship and go home? They only follow the strong, and they clearly didn't respect Viserys so the army would only be loyal as long as Khal Drogo was around and wanted them to be and they are definitely not the subservient type. It just seems like having a problem with mice then releasing snakes to eat all the mice, but then WTF do you do with all the snakes? Maybe it was all an elaborate plot by Illyrio to get rid of the Dothraki and make them Westeros's problem instead? ;)

[Ivy Snow]

Like some other posters said here, I don't thing that Vary's is concerned about the small folk or the realm. If he was he wouldn't have killed Kevan that early. Kevan dying will just ruin the small peace that the realm has for now. I think he knows that winter is coming and there are not enough food to last everyone for the long winter. I think he's in this for his own good. Maybe the Blackfyre theory is correct, maybe he's in it for revenge? IMO him saying its for the realm or children is just a lie. There's a bigger picture here.

[Jon AS]

I will concede that the Dothraki are probably the more superior army and I would definitely want them on my side (rather than against me), but I still don't think that it was a terribly good plan to begin with. What was the plan for after Viserys was on the throne? Were the Dothraki just gonna get back on their ship and go home?

I don't think Viserys was supposed to survive long enough to become king. Or maybe he was, and after a brief period to demonstrate how bad he was, "Aegon" could have been revealed and replace him.

Getting rid of the Dothraki is pretty easy: kill the leader and the Khalasar will splinter. Provided they don't want to go home once the job is done.

IMO him saying its for the realm or children is just a lie. There's a bigger picture here.

I think the bigger picture is that Varys thinks that he can create the "perfect" king (who will, of course, do exactly as Varys advises him) which will ultimately be good for the realm, and in his mind that justifies all the death and destruction necessary to get that king on the throne. Of course, his king might turn out to not be as great as he thinks, and on top of that there's an even bigger picture that involves a zombie invasion.

[Markus]

By the way, it should be noted that the value of dragon eggs is described differently in the novels than in the TV show. In the novels Jorah says that: "Drogo will have no use for dragon's eggs in the night lands. Better to sell them in Asshai. Sell one and we can buy a ship to take us back to the Free Cities. Sell all three and you will be a wealthy woman all your days."

So one dragon egg is worth a ship, not necessarily a small army like in the show, while three dragon eggs mean Dany will be wealthy not that Viserys could hire a large army big enough to conquer Westeros.

[KhalRhaego]

I don't think Viserys was supposed to survive long enough to become king. Or maybe he was, and after a brief period to demonstrate how bad he was, "Aegon" could have been revealed and replace him.

Getting rid of the Dothraki is pretty easy: kill the leader and the Khalasar will splinter. Provided they don't want to go home once the job is done.

I think that this just goes to show that either Varys never intended the Dothraki to actually get here or he doesn't have the best interest of realm at heart. Unleashing the Dothraki, who think that it's okay for the strong to take from the weak, upon your population is exactly the opposite sentiment of, let's say a knight who vows to protect the weak. If the plan was really to kill Drogo and splinter the Khalassar then you've still got 4 groups of 10,000 Dothraki riding around Westeros raping and pillaging which seems like a worse problem then an unified Khalasar. Then again, if the plan is to drop them off at Casterly Rock when he's done with them, that's probably okay. I'm voting for a Cersei and Khal Jhaqo pairing. Or maybe that's why Mago is coming back? Let's see her try to convince him that a blond baby is his.

[Leon]

By the way, it should be noted that the value of dragon eggs is described differently in the novels than in the TV show. In the novels Jorah says that: "Drogo will have no use for dragon's eggs in the night lands. Better to sell them in Asshai. Sell one and we can buy a ship to take us back to the Free Cities. Sell all three and you will be a wealthy woman all your days."

So one dragon egg is worth a ship, not necessarily a small army like in the show, while three dragon eggs mean Dany will be wealthy not that Viserys could hire a large army big enough to conquer Westeros.

I don't have the book on hand just now, but I believe they were described earlier as being worth an army. The scene where Viserys tries to take them and Jorah stops him did come from the book, and it was after that when Jorah told Dany that Viserys could buy an army with them.

Personally, I think Jorah was overstating their worth. Also, if they're that valuable, then selling them would be very difficult. Who could afford to buy them? And if you're selling as a beggar, you'd more likely end up dead than paid.

[KhalRhaego]

By the way, it should be noted that the value of dragon eggs is described differently in the novels than in the TV show. In the novels Jorah says that: "Drogo will have no use for dragon's eggs in the night lands. Better to sell them in Asshai. Sell one and we can buy a ship to take us back to the Free Cities. Sell all three and you will be a wealthy woman all your days."

So one dragon egg is worth a ship, not necessarily a small army like in the show, while three dragon eggs mean Dany will be wealthy not that Viserys could hire a large army big enough to conquer Westeros.

Yay! Thanks for establishing the "Dothraki Screamer" to "Dragon Egg" monetary conversion ratio. It helps. Of course there is always the chance that the Dothraki market will crash and Dany can buy up a whole lot of screamers at a bargain rate. That's probably what she's been waiting around for. :)

[Winterfell is Burning]

Great summary, MaesterLuwin. :thumbsup:

•Varys visits Eddard in disguise, and urges him to confess and take the black. This is the first we hear about Varys "serving the realm." Perhaps Varys hopes that this will stall off war if Eddard is not executed.

I think Ned would have never reached the Wall, and Varys had some men set to take him back to his troops. The reasons:

1) It helps to stall off the war;

2) Having Ned in command of the North/Riverlands force increases the chances that the Lannister's forces suffer massive damages or loses when the war comes. He couldn't know that Robb would be any good as a military commander;

3) It causes a major setback to LF's plans (Varys had to at least suspect he wanted Ned dead because of Catelyn);

4) Improves his (Varys) image in the North, making him more credible when he says Aegon is the real deal, or in any other future plans;

5) I believe his respect for Ned wasn't false, he wouldn't kill him if it wasn't necessary.

•Varys suggests Barristan take the blame for Robert's death and be removed from the Kingsguard. (Source: Cersei tells Tyrion at the beginning of CoK. Most likely true. Some theorized that Varys wanted Barristan to join Dany, but Barristan's story in DwD indicates that he didn't immediately take off for Essos after his dismissal. Perhaps Varys just wanted competent advisors removed from King's Landing?).

I think Varys wanted competent advisors removed. Plus, Barristan standing there gives Joffrey more legitimacy, and his dismissal is an unpopular decision, since he's seen as a hero in the entire realm by the smallfolk, like Tyrion said in CoK.

•Varys manages to arrange for Gendry to escape King's Landing. He also is probably involved in telling Yoren to be there when Eddard chooses to take the black. (Gendry and Yoren's talk to Arya in CoK. Also, Varys tells Tyrion that he arranged for one of Robert's bastards to escape. Most likely he is telling the truth here, but its unclear what Varys gains from protecting Gendry).

He gains yet another possible candidate for king, or at least for lord of Storm's End. Plus, Varys seems against the killing of children.

•Varys tells the small council of the rumor of a "three-headed dragon" in Qarth, deftly dropped in between other rumors. Tywin dismisses this out of hand.

And that was the idea. If Varys doesn't present this rumor, when it eventually reaches another council member, he'd be wondering why Varys didn't knew, or didn't tell. But presenting among some others make it sound like just gossip.

•Varys turns against Tyrion after he is accused of Joffrey's murder, presumably to save his own skin.

And to cause more infighting among the Lannisters, and to remove yet another competent mind off the council.

•At Jaime's behest, Varys frees Tyrion and sends him on his way to Illyrio. It is unclear whether or not Varys intended Tyrion to kill Tywin and Shae.

I don't think it was Varys plan, but killing Tywin certainly was a big victory for him (Shae is indifferent).

•Qyburn tells Cersei that most of Varys' informers are now under his employ. It's unclear if this is true, or if Varys is still pulling strings and revealing to Qyburn what he wants to reveal.

Of course many of his informers would go to Qyburn, but all? Certainly not.

•Tyrion arrives at Illyrio's. Illyrio sends him off with Griff and Young Griff, but does not tell him about Young Griff's true identity. Their plans for Tyrion are unclear; Connington burns the note Illyrio sends to him about Tyrion, and doesn't think of it again. Connington does seem annoyed that Illyrio has involved more people in the plot.

Well, if Tyrion is working for Varys, he's certainly a great asset. And a natural candidate to have Casterly Rock.

•Varys sees Kevan doing a pretty good job of bringing the realm back together. He kills Kevan and Pycelle with the intention of causing dissent between Lannisters, Tyrells, and Martells. (Source: DwD. Some debate about whether or not Varys is telling the truth to Kevan, but it seems clear that, at the very least, he wants to spread chaos and prevent competent people from being in charge).

Why would Varys lie to a dead man?

What can we learn from all this?

•Varys' endgame during all these books has been to spread chaos across Westeros to prepare for the invasion. Illyrio's role is less clear, but perhaps he is funding the whole endeavor. He's at least funding Varys' "birds."

Illyrio is his right-hand man.

•Viserys/Dany, the Dothraki, and the dragons appear to be an afterthought. The supposed Aegon has been the plan for at least 12 years (it was 12 years ago that Connington left the Golden Company, faked his death, and hung out with Young Griff). "Aegon" has been groomed from the beginning, and Connington and Toyne were made aware of the plan. But Viserys and Dany were allowed to wander around the Free Cities, were rejected by the Golden Company, and were sent off to the Dothraki Sea with little training or protection. Dany only seems to be important at all once it turns out she has dragons.

The plan was use Viserys and the Dothraki to cause chaos in the realm, to be "fixed" by Aegon's return. Also to be an obvious target while Aegon keeps hidden. And, finally, a back-up plan in case Aegon dies/is mad.

•There is some evidence that Varys/Illyrio were responsible for Aerys' downfall, but this is not at all clear. It is also unclear why Varys didn't want Aerys to let the Lannisters into the city.

Seems pretty clear to me (about the Lannisters): his own head would be at risk.

•The plans that Willem Darry made with the Martells for Viserys and Dany seem to be a different conspiracy altogether. Doran thinks the Volantene ships carrying the Golden Company and the elephants are actually Dany and the dragons.

It is. Varys wasn't aware of this plans.

•Varys' care for Robert's bastards is interesting. Perhaps he likes collecting heirs?

Legitimized bastards have potencial claims, and they are back-up plans. Plus, like I said earlier, even if Aegon is at the throne, he can still use Robert's bastards to get Storm's End.

Oh, and, of course, they help to prove the theory that Cersei's children aren't Robert's.

•The big question from all of this is whether or not the supposed Aegon is the real deal. "Aegon" himself believes that Varys switched babies. Connington doesn't seem to doubt the identity of "Aegon," but it's not clear he was involved in the baby switcheroo at all, or even if he was working with Varys until a few years after the war. Varys' word seems to be the only true indicator that "Aegon" is actually Aegon.

Only Varys (and GRRM) know that.

[Jon AS]

If the plan was really to kill Drogo and splinter the Khalassar then you've still got 4 groups of 10,000 Dothraki riding around Westeros raping and pillaging which seems like a worse problem then an unified Khalasar.

No, you've got four groups that are not going to support each other and are each indidually quite easily dealt with by Westerosi forces. Also, maybe killing them isn't even necessary. The Free Cities have gotten into the habit of buying them off, after all. Just give them half the gold of Casterly Rock and send them back across the Narrow Sea so they can return to Vaes Dothrak.;)