[ADwD Spoilers] The Varys-Illyrio Conspiracy

[Markus]

One whistle-blower is all that would be needed to bring some very complex years of planning crashing down in the blink of an eye. Too risky to have a fake put in place. Specially with the stakes so high in the game Illyrio and Varys have been playing for well over a decade.

Varys' scheme is risky whether Aegon is a fake or not. One whistle-blower could've brought it down regardless of that.

And what were Varys and Illyrio to do when they didn't have the real Aegon because he was killed? If they wanted a pretender who had a strong claim likely to attract major support in Westeros, who might be expected to make a good king which could be doubted in Viserys' case and who would be beholden to them (and might possibly even be related to either or both of them)?.

[Hielo y Fuego]

Varys' scheme is risky whether Aegon is a fake or not. One whistle-blower could've brought it down regardless of that.

Of course. But there's a huge difference between someone blowing the whistle and letting the whole of Westeros know that some kid known as Young Griff is really Aegon Targaryen and a completely different thing to have someone unmask a phony Aegon, especially should his rebellion succeed. He would never be safe on the Iron Throne and the slightest mistake could bring him down in a flash.

That's the kind of whistle-blower and unnecessary risk I was talking about. Why unnecessary?

Because you already have Viserys and Daenerys in tow. Neither looked like much at first, granted. And the boy never made it. But Dany more than made up for her brother's ineptitude, in many more ways than one...at least until that whole fiasco in Meereen. So no, I don't see the need for a fake Targ, when you already have the real thing. Much less, the need to put that plan concerning the potential phony in motion.

And what were Varys and Illyrio to do when they didn't have the real Aegon because he was killed? If they wanted a pretender who had a strong claim likely to attract major support in Westeros, who might be expected to make a good king which could be doubted in Viserys' case and who would be beholden to them (and might possibly even be related to either or both of them)?.

At this point, we don't know if the Mountain smashed real Aegon's head against a wall or no. So, anything based on that assumption is mere speculation. In which case, I must insist: Varys and Illyrio had 2 legit Targs in their power and one of them turned out much better than expected. Also, Varys has been collecting Robert bastards who, by Westeros laws, have a much better claim to the Iron Throne than Cersei's "abominable" bastards out of incest. So, IMO, no need for a fake Aegon in any which way and again, the risk would just be too great should the mummer's farce ever be discovered.

[Markus]

Of course. But there's a huge difference between someone blowing the whistle and letting the whole of Westeros know that some kid known as Young Griff is really Aegon Targaryen and a completely different thing to have someone unmask a phony Aegon, especially should his rebellion succeed. He would never be safe on the Iron Throne and the slightest mistake could bring him down in a flash.

Who was going to ummask YG though? There may be only two people who really know the truth, Varys and Illyrio. And if you think that's already too many to be safe then it would be a good reason why Varys didn't increase the people in the know to eight when he killed Kevan in front of half a dozen of his kids.

In any case, I think scheming on behalf of Aegon is already a risky scheme so we've no good reason to believe that Varys wouldn't risk scheming on behalf of a fake Aegon. The risks are largely comparable I would say.

Because you already have Viserys and Daenerys in tow. Neither looked like much at first, granted. And the boy never made it. But Dany more than made up for her brother's ineptitude, in many more ways than one...at least until that whole fiasco in Meereen. So no, I don't see the need for a fake Targ, when you already have the real thing. Much less, the need to put that plan concerning the potential phony in motion.

Varys and Illyrio had been scheming to put Aegon on the throne for at least a dozen years. The boy had been groomed to become a good king whereas Dany's education was rather spotty and may have been suspected to ill prepare her for the throne. More, Aegon's claim to the throne easily trumps Dany's. He would be beloved Rhaegar's son and not Mad Aerys' daughter. Dany's claim may even be worse than Stannis' for those who hold that a cousin of Aerys should inherit before a woman. YG was also beholden to Varys and Illyrio, moreso than Dany. Aegon also came with ready made alliances with the Golden Company and Connington.

So I can well see that Illyrio and Varys prefered to integrate Dany into their plans and not to shelve Aegon as their principal candidate and this doesn't even take possible more personal relationships into account.

At this point, we don't know if the Mountain smashed real Aegon's head against a wall or no. So, anything based on that assumption is mere speculation.

My question was a hypothetical one. If Aegon was dead which choice would Varys and Illyrio have had but to use a fake Aegon when they wanted all the advantages this particular fake Aegon might give them? I've already brought up why they would still use Aegon at the time of ADwD.

Twelve years ago there would also have been good reasons to plan with a fake Aegon over Viserys and Dany. A better claim than them. No madness whereas Viserys showed signs of it. Control over a suitable education from a young age whereas Viserys was already flawed and in his teens. Secrecy which protected their claimant. Suitable protectors and allies in Connington and his crew who may not have supported mad Viserys. And of course the possibility that there is a more personal relationship between YG and Varys/Illyrio.

Also, Varys has been collecting Robert bastards who, by Westeros laws, have a much better claim to the Iron Throne than Cersei's "abominable" bastards out of incest. So, IMO, no need for a fake Aegon in any which way and again, the risk would just be too great should the mummer's farce ever be discovered.

Robert's bastards have no recognized legal claim to the throne. Bastards don't really have any widely held legal claims in Westeros. They may be considered as heirs if there are no legitimate heirs and if it's politically expedient but that's not the same as having a lawful claim.

As for this great risk, I disagree. There may be two people who know the truth and would be believed and neither of them has any interest to reveal it to the wider world. Which other source could Varys/Illyrio plausibly expect to convincingly reveal a fake Aegon? The Lannisters and their allies simply claiming Aegon is a fake doesn't suffice because that's what they would say, isn't it? If there is a magical way or if the dragons might reveal YG as a fake then this isn't something which should be expected by Varys/Illyrio, neither twelve years ago nor even in the present.

[chrisdaw]

A fake Aegon is as good as a real Aegon in Vary's plans, it really doesn't make any difference, it's the perception of legitimacy and the character of Aegon that matter in his scheme.

The Dany marriage may have just been a long shot they could afford to play because Dany wasn't of any real importance, chances were nothing comes of it and they'd be no worse off, but there's also a slight hope it'd reap dividends, Illyrio and Varys may have had differing levels of hope for the plan. It never really should have been seen as a good bet for them as the Dorthraki don't cross the sea. Or perhaps it was just a fund raising venture as Dany points out Illyrio made big coin from the deal.

Also for the op, the marriage pact between Dorne and Viserys gives reason for their nurturing of Viserys and later Dany when Viserys dies. The marriage pact was essentially keeping Martell subdued and Dorne from open war.

[tipopellet]

completely different thing to have someone unmask a phony Aegon, especially should his rebellion succeed.

I doubt there is a way to unmask Aegon's fakeness even if he is fake. There are no DNA tests, so it's looks and who supports his claim. Having Rhaegar's best friend at his side is more than enough, I'd say.

Stannis sending letters about Cersei's bastards didn't bring her down. Just saying somebody's fake isn't going to accomplish much.

Varys and Illyrio had 2 legit Targs in their power and one of them turned out much better than expected.

Dany in Vyseris only came to live with Illyrio a few months before the start of GOT. And the first thing they did with them - sold Dany to Dothraki where they expected her to die soon. There was a chance that Vyseris would have gained an army from this deal but that wasn't garantied and there was no clear timeframe and there was a huge issue of how would that army get to Westeros considering Dothraki's aversion to traveling by sea. Dany and Vyseris were always an afterthought for Varys and Illyrio, they never tried to help them during their long years of poverty and exile until the time they saw some opportunity to use them or when it was time for them to pay their role (don't know exactly when they decided on Dothraki plan).

It's Dany's sheer luck that she managed to survive all that and birth dragons in the process. Now they decided to use that too - marry her to Aegon and make his claim even better.

[tipopellet]

A fake Aegon is as good as a real Aegon in Vary's plans, it really doesn't make any difference, it's the perception of legitimacy and the character of Aegon that matter in his scheme.

This.

The Dany marriage may have just been a long shot they could afford to play because Dany wasn't of any real importance, chances were nothing comes of it and they'd be no worse off, but there's also a slight hope it'd reap dividends, Illyrio and Varys may have had differing levels of hope for the plan. It never really should have been seen as a good bet for them as the Dorthraki don't cross the sea. Or perhaps it was just a fund raising venture as Dany points out Illyrio made big coin from the deal.

Good point. The one thing about the whole deal that doesn't make sense is dragon eggs. They are very expensive, was it really neccessary to give them away like that with the girl you don't expect to live long? Some "rabbit ears" reason there?

Also for the op, the marriage pact between Dorne and Viserys gives reason for their nurturing of Viserys and later Dany when Viserys dies. The marriage pact was essentially keeping Martell subdued and Dorne from open war.

Are we sure that Illyrio and Varys even know about this pact? They weren't the ones who formed it after all.

[mormont]

I doubt there is a way to unmask Aegon's fakeness even if he is fake.

No conclusive proof, perhaps. But the 'lost-baby-Aegon' story starts with a much, much lower base of credibility than 'of course these are Robert's legitimate children'. Stannis' allegations could be discounted in part because they told an unlikely story: but in the case of Aegon, it's the story he's telling in the first place that's unlikely. Any counterclaims are consequently going to be stronger. You wouldn't need much to discredit his claim. Jorah or Barristan could probably do serious damage to Aegon's claim simply by revealing the Illyrio-Varys connections that they personally know about. That alone could make the whole thing look distinctly fishy.

Dany in Vyseris only came to live with Illyrio a few months before the start of GOT. And the first thing they did with them - sold Dany to Dothraki where they expected her to die soon. There was a chance that Vyseris would have gained an army from this deal but that wasn't garantied and there was no clear timeframe and there was a huge issue of how would that army get to Westeros considering Dothraki's aversion to traveling by sea. Dany and Vyseris were always an afterthought for Varys and Illyrio, they never tried to help them during their long years of poverty and exile until the time they saw some opportunity to use them or when it was time for them to pay their role (don't know exactly when they decided on Dothraki plan).

As I've pointed out in another thread, the Golden Company believe that joining up with Viserys and his Dothraki army was part of the original plan. However far back their involvement goes, it would appear that the Dothraki involvement goes back that far too: and that the Dothraki were always an integral part of that original plan. This makes sense. Without the Dothraki, the Targaryen forces are somewhat light, and in any case you don't throw away two indisputable Targaryen heirs just on the off-chance of getting some extra help. How were they planning to address the issue of getting them across the sea? Don't know, but to suggest that they had no plans to do so just doesn't fit with anything else we know, so we must assume there was some plan.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

Good point. The one thing about the whole deal that doesn't make sense is dragon eggs. They are very expensive, was it really neccessary to give them away like that with the girl you don't expect to live long? Some "rabbit ears" reason there?

Yeah this is odd. I can only assume that Illyrio hoped that Dany or Viserys would be able to hatch the eggs, thereby creating the ultimate weapon for a Targ restoration (not to mention greatly increasing their worth). And he didn't give them to "Aegon" because he knows Young Griff is really no Targ and could never hatch them...

It's Dany's sheer luck that she managed to survive all that and birth dragons in the process. Now they decided to use that too - marry her to Aegon and make his claim even better. in any way legitimate

Fix'd. :lol:

Yeah it's puzzling though. Why did Varys/Illyrio mishandle the Vis/Dany situation so terribly??? They utterly neglected the education of both of Aerys' children while grooming YG for Kingship... honestly Dany could have turned out way worse in such circumstances. I suppose it's possible that they simply didn't know about Vis/Dany until she came to Illyrio's manse? And the Dothraki strategy was just... plain... dumb... to be honest.

Another idea, if YG is really Illyrio's son, he might have wanted him to be the more acceptable candidate for personal reasons. You compare a young man groomed from a young age for leadership to either a young girl raised in the gutters or her already-half-mad brother and most of the nobles will more likely accept the well-spoken boy.

[Hielo y Fuego]

Who was going to ummask YG though?...

All your points are valid. A credible fake Aegon still stands a much better claim than either Vis or Dany. A fake Aegon could help raise some armies (like the Golden Co. for instance). A fake Aegon could destabilize Westeros. A fake Aegon would be hard to unmask if no one's into the conspiracy, except for...

Dragons.

How would they respond to a fake Targaryen?

That pretty much could make everything unravel in a heartbeat. Kid could very well end up as roasted as Quentyn Martell. And that's a serious risk to take into consideration, when you're thinking about marrying the kid off to Dany. Sooner or later, Aegon would have to prove himself via the dragons, I would think, and that could very well be his undoing.

Now, being the mastermind planners and schemers that they are, I'm sure Illyrio and Varys would have thought about this. Why would they risk their mummer's dragon in this fashion? Surely, they must have known Dany would wish to prove Aegon's legitimacy, I would think. And, what better way to prove a dragon's legitimacy than with real dragons?

Unless this is the reason why GRRM had the kid sail to Westeros instead of Meereen, to me this means he is the real thing alright.

Oh, as for Robert's bastards, I'm perfectly aware of a bastard's limitations in the 7K's. I know they must be legitimized by royal decree in order to stake their claim and I wouldn't underestimate the eunuch. I'm pretty sure Varys would find a way to legitimize Gendry or Edric Storm with little difficulty, having seen what's he's capable of accomplishing so far. IMO, this would be easy pickings for him. So I still see this as an "ace up the sleeve" kind of backup plan, in case everything else goes awry.

[Hielo y Fuego]

I doubt there is a way to unmask Aegon's fakeness even if he is fake. There are no DNA tests, so it's looks and who supports his claim. Having Rhaegar's best friend at his side is more than enough, I'd say.

No DNA tests, of course. Only magic, dragons, visions in fires, etc. Yeah, I'm pretty sure there's no way to unmask a fake dragon hehehe...

Stannis sending letters about Cersei's bastards didn't bring her down. Just saying somebody's fake isn't going to accomplish much.

Who said anything about letters?

Don't know if you've noticed it but, other than Stannis, all the remaining kings in the 5K war are dead (Renly, Robb, Joff, Balon). Think it's coincidence? I see Lady Melisandre's hand all over it and I'm not just talking about Renly. In fact, IIRC, she did tell Stannis (or Davos) that any false pretender would pay the consequences.

So again, who needs letters when you have magic or dragons?

Dany in Vyseris only came to live with Illyrio a few months before the start of GOT. And the first thing they did with them - sold Dany to Dothraki where they expected her to die soon. There was a chance that Vyseris would have gained an army from this deal but that wasn't garantied and there was no clear timeframe and there was a huge issue of how would that army get to Westeros considering Dothraki's aversion to traveling by sea. Dany and Vyseris were always an afterthought for Varys and Illyrio, they never tried to help them during their long years of poverty and exile until the time they saw some opportunity to use them or when it was time for them to pay their role (don't know exactly when they decided on Dothraki plan).

It's Dany's sheer luck that she managed to survive all that and birth dragons in the process. Now they decided to use that too - marry her to Aegon and make his claim even better.

With all due respect, all of the above is based on your interpretation of the events and speculation based on such. I strongly disagree and I would rather drop it right here, because this would only lead to a sterile debate. You have your theories, I have mine and clearly, we'll just agree to disagree.

Again, all I can say is one word: Dragons.

After Dany's 3 hatched, it was a whole new game with a whole new set of rules for all participating players. Anything that came before that is pretty much rendered moot by the appearance of the 3 dragons and again, that could very well be a way to unmask a fake Aegon. In fact, should YG turn out to be a phony, I think this is exactly how it'll be proven, lest he kills himself before that first.

[Markus]

Dragons. How would they respond to a fake Targaryen? That pretty much could make everything unravel in a heartbeat. Kid could very well end up as roasted as Quentyn Martell. And that's a serious risk to take into consideration, when you're thinking about marrying the kid off to Dany. Sooner or later, Aegon would have to prove himself via the dragons, I would think, and that could very well be his undoing.

Targaryens aren't immune to fire. See Viserys and Quentyn who had some dragon blood. Even Dany is burned in ADwD. Nor do dragons never attack people with Targaryen blood. See Dany in ADwD or Rhaenyra or Quentyn. So I'm not quite sure if the dragons will really be proof of YG being fake or that anybody would expose YG to dragon fire to prove his identity in the first place.

What makes us think that the dragons could reveal a fake? The Targaryens practiced incest to keep their blood pure for some purpose and we have a vague hint that a bit of dragon blood makes the dragons friendlier. But is this enough to conclude YG can't be a Targaryen if the dragons aren't friendly? It might raise suspicion if it could be established that dragons are generally friendlier to Targaryens yes, but is this proof? And was this characteristic actually known to Varys and Illyrio? There haven't been any dragons for a long time after all.

Moreover, even when we assume that it's known that dragons can identify Targaryen blood, then YG could be expected to pass such a test although he isn't Rhaegar's son Aegon. He could be a descendant of a Targaryen bastard: A Blackfyre from the female line or a descendant of Bittersteel or of Bellegere Otherys. Or of Aerion Brightfire who may have fathered bastards in Lys while exiled there. Note that Illyrio's second wife came from Lys. Moreover, the Targaryens weren't the only dragon lords. YG could be a descendant of some other dragon lord family which might allow him to pass a test or so Illyrio/Varys may think.

[KhalRhaego]

Wasn't Varys the one who smuggled Dany and Viserys out before they were murdered? As far as I can see Varys and Illyrio might have always been keeping an eye on them even if they didn't move in with Illyrio until recently. I think one possible reason for the disparity between the way that Young Griff was treated and the way that Viserys was treated had to do more with keeping Viserys humble. YG was in their power since he was an infant, so they were able to mold him into who they wanted him to be and earn his loyalty that way. Viserys already had some experience with being a prince and an enormous sense of entitlement to contend with. If they didn't remind him that he was in fact a beggar and reliant on help, he would have just marched around acting like a prince demanding things (which we already see evidence of) without actually being grateful and realising the help could also end at any time. It was also a careful balancing act between keeping him alive, but not letting him get more powerful than YG.

[Frisco]

Good point. The one thing about the whole deal that doesn't make sense is dragon eggs. They are very expensive, was it really neccessary to give them away like that with the girl you don't expect to live long? Some "rabbit ears" reason there?

Maybe he thought there was more of a chance that she'd die trying to hatch dragons than of her actually hatching dragons.

[Hielo y Fuego]

Targaryens aren't immune to fire. See Viserys and Quentyn who had some dragon blood. Even Dany is burned in ADwD. Nor do dragons never attack people with Targaryen blood. See Dany in ADwD or Rhaenyra or Quentyn. So I'm not quite sure if the dragons will really be proof of YG being fake or that anybody would expose YG to dragon fire to prove his identity in the first place.

What makes us think that the dragons could reveal a fake? The Targaryens practiced incest to keep their blood pure for some purpose and we have a vague hint that a bit of dragon blood makes the dragons friendlier. But is this enough to conclude YG can't be a Targaryen if the dragons aren't friendly? It might raise suspicion if it could be established that dragons are generally friendlier to Targaryens yes, but is this proof? And was this characteristic actually known to Varys and Illyrio? There haven't been any dragons for a long time after all.

Moreover, even when we assume that it's known that dragons can identify Targaryen blood, then YG could be expected to pass such a test although he isn't Rhaegar's son Aegon. He could be a descendant of a Targaryen bastard: A Blackfyre from the female line or a descendant of Bittersteel. Or of Aerion Brightfire who may have fathered bastards in Lys while exiled there. Note that Illyrio's second wife came from Lys. Moreover, the Targaryens weren't the only dragon lords. YG could be a descendant of some other dragon lord family which might allow him to pass a test or so Illyrio/Varys may think.

True that Dany's dragons are too wild and unreliable to be counted for anything other than destruction, at this point (except for Drogon, perhaps and still, Dany doesn't trust him 100%). Clearly, the girl didn't know how to tame them and locking away poor Viserion and Rhaegal in some dark, underground dungeon didn't help matters at all in this sense. True also that Targs aren't 100% safe from either fire or the dragons, so that'd be unreliable proof also.

Still, the question you made which I've highlighted in bold say is it all, IMO...

Who's said that YG is a fake?

I didn't read anywhere in the book that YG is a fake, except for the Small Council's discussion in the epilogue, which only makes sense, of course. For all intents and purposes, the kid is Aegon Targaryen in the flesh. Connington seems to thinks so, Tyrion seems to thinks so and neither men strike me as gullible fools easy to scam.

The whole thing is based on some readers' speculation on what Dany learned in the House of the Undying concerning a false dragon. It could be YG or it could be someone or something else entirely that we haven't seen yet. Point is, no official source has ever confirmed this to be the case.

So, IMO, your question about the dragons revealing a fake is as fair as my question on how do we know the kid with the blue hair's a fake indeed. I could think of a thousand creative ways to make it possible for the dragons to reveal a fake...or Melisandre's fires or any other red priest of the order of R'hllor, for that matter...or a greenseer, be it Bran or Brynden Bloodraven, since they can see far away and far into the past...or some new, unexpected development that comes forth in the future.

Taking all that into consideration, I would think that the risks of creating a fake Aegon in a world with so many intangible risks wouldn't be worthy of 2 brilliant conspirators such as the eunuch and the cheesemonger. Surely, they must have thought of everything, just to put a fake on the Iron Throne and, personally, I don't think that'd be wise in such an environment.

Edit: for spelling and grammar corrections.

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

Again, all I can say is one word: Dragons.

After Dany's 3 hatched, it was a whole new game with a whole new set of rules for all participating players. Anything that came before that is pretty much rendered moot by the appearance of the 3 dragons and again, that could very well be a way to unmask a fake Aegon. In fact, should YG turn out to be a phony, I think this is exactly how it'll be proven, lest he kills himself before that first.

Dragons have nothing to do with Targaryen legitimacy. Dozens of real true blooded Targs have been killed by dragons. There is no "Dragon legitimacy test".

[Hielo y Fuego]

Dragons have nothing to do with Targaryen legitimacy. Dozens of real true blooded Targs have been killed by dragons. There is no "Dragon legitimacy test".

Right. My bad then.

Still, that doesn't make YG a fake, only because a handful of readers have decided to interpret a certain prophecy that way.

[Markus]

Connington seems to thinks so, Tyrion seems to thinks so and neither men strike me as gullible fools easy to scam.

How would Connington or Tyrion know "Aegon" is a fake or not? Why should we believe that Connington would be able to recognize that a ca. five year old with the right coloring isn't Rhaegar's son? In particular when Connington would wish the child to be real so that he could redeem himself for his earlier failure. And Tyrion knew even less about the real Aegon or Rhaegar so probably wouldn't be able to recognize a fake with the right coloring. Note that Tyrion isn't convinced that YG is real.

The whole thing is based on some readers' speculation on what Dany learned in the House of the Undying concerning a false dragon. It could be YG or it could be someone or something else entirely that we haven't seen yet.

Dany's vision is fairly suggestive though. Plus, there is Moqorro's vision of dragons which includes at least one false one.

I could think of a thousand creative ways to make it possible for the dragons to reveal a fake...or Melisandre's fires or any other red priest of the order of R'hllor, for that matter...or a greenseer, be it Bran or Brynden Bloodraven, since they can see far away and far into the past...or some new, unexpected development that comes forth in the future.

Sure, there may well be all sorts of ways to reveal a fake Targaryen. The question is which of these ways would've been known and considered dangerous by Varys and Illyrio twelve years ago. There were no dragons then. Bran wasn't born yet and Bloodraven was "dead". Melisandre was probably in Asshai or abouts and the red priests' magic was a lot less powerful because powerful magic hadn't yet returned to the world. Moreover, some guy having a vision isn't necessarily a threat to YG's fake identity. Who is going to verify such a vision and how?

I would think that the risks of creating a fake Aegon in a world with so many intangible risks wouldn't be worthy of 2 brilliant conspirators such as the eunuch and the cheesemonger. Surely, they must have thought of everything, just to put a fake on the Iron Throne and, personally, I don't think that'd be wise in such an environment.

Nobody thinks of "everything". V/I are clever not omniscient. We see that their plans with Viserys and Dany have gone frequently wrong for example. And you've to think in alternatives. A fake Aegon may have carried some risks but so would mad Viserys and a girl have had their very considerable risks. And then there is the possible personal connection. If YG is a relative of both or one of them this would've been yet another reason to favor a fake Aegon over Viserys and Dany.

[Jon AS]

Wasn't Varys the one who smuggled Dany and Viserys out before they were murdered?

No, that was Ser Willem Darry, who had accompanied Viserys and the queen to Dragonstone. He took the children to Braavos shortly before Stannis captured the island. He was also the one who signed the pact with Doran, and it was only after his death that Viserys and Dany started wandering the Free Cities.

[Hielo y Fuego]

How would Connington or Tyrion know "Aegon" is a fake or not? Why should we believe that Connington would be able to recognize that a ca. five year old with the right coloring isn't Rhaegar's son? In particular when Connington would wish the child to be real so that he could redeem himself for his earlier failure. And Tyrion knew even less about the real Aegon or Rhaegar so probably wouldn't be able to recognize a fake with the right coloring. Note that Tyrion isn't convinced that YG is real.

So, you mean to say Connington doesn't really care about putting a phony on the Iron Throne, even when he's thoroughly convinced that he will not fail his beloved prince's son the way he failed Rhaegar himself?

OK, for the sake of argument, I'll say it's possible that he's deluding himself out of wishful thinking. But I do believe he would want to confirm on the boy's identity as much as possible at least, before taking a couple of sneaky, cunning bastards such as V & I on their word alone. Too much at stake here for him as well, just to piss it all away on naïve wishful thinking.

As for Tyrion, I may be mistaken, but I don't recall him doubting Aegon's legitimacy. Not to say that he didn't, given his sharp wits, his guile and his natural mistrust of anything and anyone. Guy's a hound when it comes to noticing scams of any kind, so if he did doubt that YG's legit, I wouldn't be surprised. I just don't remember him saying/thinking anything in this sense, is all.

Dany's vision is fairly suggestive though. Plus, there is Moqorro's vision of dragons which includes at least one false one.

Dany's vision is suggestive depending on each reader's POV, IMO. To some it may be fairly obvious, while to others it may be a red herring the size of Meereen's pyramids. I just happen to be part of the latter. Ditto for Moqorro's vision.

Just for the record, though, I'm not contesting the existence of a false dragon (or more), just that Aegon strikes me as too obvious a choice for someone like GRRM. Almost to the point of lameness, actually.

Sure, there may well be all sorts of ways to reveal a fake Targaryen. The question is which of these ways would've been known and considered dangerous by Varys and Illyrio twelve years ago. There were no dragons then. Bran wasn't born and Bloodraven was "dead". Melisandre was probably in Asshai or abouts and the red priests magic was a lot less powerful because powerful magic hadn't yet returned to the world. Moreover, some guy having a vision isn't necessarily a threat to YG's fake identity. Who is going to verify such a vision and how?

Bran wasn't born and BR was rendered ineffectual, I agree. But as greenseers, that matters little since they can log into the weirwood network and see deep into the past. Could this play a major role, as in them being in a position of revealing anything? Not likely and not their role in the story, I would think, because the Bran thread seems to be linked to the Others and the North rather than the Targs, but still possible. So, I wouldn't rule it out completely.

Same goes for all other kinds of magic that GRRM has been revealing with each book. The fact that it wasn't around in full force before AGoT doesn't mean it can't be used now to reveal many things in the past, such as this or Jon's true parents, for instance. Again, unlikely perhaps, but not completely out of the question.

Nobody thinks of "everything". V/I are clever not omniscient. We see that their plans with Viserys and Dany have gone frequently wrong for example. And you've to think in alternatives. A fake Aegon may have carried some risks but so would mad Viserys and a girl have had their very considerable risks. And then there is the possible personal connection. If YG is a relative of both or either of them this would've been yet another reason to favor a fake Aegon over Viserys and Dany.

V & I are not omniscient or even clairvoyant (at least as far as we know), of course. Point well taken. But in the end, I believe we have to be aware of what we have been debating and that is the possibility of Aegon being legit vs. him being a phony. In that sense, I'd dare say there's enough evidence to sustain both claims. So, we're all entitled to support the theory that feels best to us.

In my case, I didn't even like GRRM adding this new twist so late in the ballgame. IMO, he had enough loose ends as it was to go adding more fuel to the fire. But he did lol! And in this case, I just feel that the sudden emergence of another legit Targ makes for a much more interesting potential climax than a fake. Though in truth, I think YG's true identity may not affect the eventual outcome of events either way. It's just a matter of what "feels right" to each one of us, I would think. And in that sense, till GRRM himself reveals the truth behind this new twist, Aeg will remain legit to me ;)

[MyDogIsNamedDanerys]

OK, for the sake of argument, I'll say it's possible that he's deluding himself out of wishful thinking. But I do believe he would want to confirm on the boy's identity as much as possible at least, before taking a couple of sneaky, cunning bastards such as V & I on their word alone. Too much at stake here for him as well, just to piss it all away on naïve wishful thinking.

I'm certain that Jon Connington is 100% convinced that Aegon is Rhaegar's son. But I don't understand what you imagine this "confirmation of the boy's identity" to be. What could Varys and Illyrio have done to "prove" it other than tell a plausible origin story? You yourself have already pointed out how there are no real tests for legitimacy. All Griff knows is what Varys and Illyrio have told him. And like all "hidden heir" tales in real life there are always good, honest people who are convinced of both sides of the issue because there is only circumstantial evidence.

Plus Jon has two personal reasons to wish Aegon to be Rhaegar's true son and this would color his judgement subconsciously, leading him to be more likely to believe V/I's tale.

1) His unresolved feelings for Rhaegar drive him to want to do well by his dead beloved - Aegon is a way to "prove himself" to Rhaegar and make up for his past failure.

2) He wants to regain his homeland - Aegon is a great way to do this.

The whole thing is based on some readers' speculation on what Dany learned in the House of the Undying concerning a false dragon. It could be YG or it could be someone or something else entirely that we haven't seen yet. Point is, no official source has ever confirmed this to be the case.

Believe it or not, I did not consider Dany's "Mummer's Dragon" prophecy as evidence when I came to the conclusion that Aegon is probably fake. IMO Mummer's Dragon has nothing to do with Aegon's legitimacy (Varys was a mummer, therefore Aegon is the Mummer's Dragon, whether legit or not).

Instead it's two things that convince me: 1) GRRM taking the time to point out Illyrio's crippling Sadness when YG is brought up and 2) the dragon eggs