[ADWD spoilers] Jon Snow's Fate

[eloquentrave]

Eh.

At this point, I'm wondering if GRRM isn't just going to say "Hey! Snow is melted, Bran is AA, Dany is fishy like sanguine herring, and Deux Ex Machina really IS TPTWP."

Given the absolute travesty that he green-lighted on HBO, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

[RedDeath]

Do we know how grave the wounds are? Is it possible that some of the people doing the stabbing were under orders from Bowen Marsh but felt conflicted about it, so they might have stabbed with less force?

Very likely the wound to the stomach is bad enough to be fatal by itself given enough time. The others are impossible to tell given the lack of detail. But to have the knife stick in his stomach even through all the clothes would suggest that it went in a good 3+ inches and it would be very hard to miss something important if that is the case. Plus he really wasn't even trying after the belly wound so it was severe enough to take him down.

I wonder why Marsh is crying? If anything, it seems like he is the one who wants Jon dead and not the one to be crying about doing it. Perhaps he got warged by the other wildling and can't stop himself?

[King_In_The_North]

I thought it was pretty clear that Marsh was crying because he didn't hate Jon, he didn't want to kill anyone, yet he though he had to to save the Watch (hence the "for the Watch" remark).

[RedDeath]

I thought it was pretty clear that Marsh was crying because he didn't hate Jon, he didn't want to kill anyone, yet he though he had to to save the Watch (hence the "for the Watch" remark).

That was my first thought on reading it too. However, out of everyone, Marsh seemed to like Jon the least and yet he was the only one mentioned to have been crying.

[Kouran]

I suppose everyone here has made the logical connection between Jon and Caeser? Jon is in the process of making radical changes to the watch and what they do, ie bringing wildlings beyond the wall, adding wildlings to the watch, giving castles to the wildlings etc much like Caeser did with his reforms of the Roman state prior to his assassination. I mean the first thing I thought of when I read that chapter was et tu Marsh.

If the analogy is correct and Jon is Caesaer then he is well and truely dead. Which I suppose I have to agree with, he did afterall violate his oath there in the shieldhall.

[The Non-Human]

If he had been warged, he would have acted a lot more erratic. I believe he was crying because, even if he didnt *love* Jon, neither did he despise him to the point of cheerfully killing him. Its like how people break in movies, when they have to kill someone to save their lives, yet many times feel incapable.

@Kouran Jon was not Caesar, because there was no Brutus! I.e, according to legend, Caesar only accepts his fate when he see Brutus among those who are having at him. And Jon did not trust Marsh, nor any of those around him, for that matter! Besides, Mel is around the corner. It would be way too cheap if we are not shown how she at least try to save him, seeing as she cares about him, at least in relation to her plans.

[Buried Treasure]

Why is everyone overlooking the Warthog warg?

We know that wargs can...

1. Take over any animal they want.

2. Try to take over humans.

Jon gave the other warg as the reason Ghost was restless, but Greywind also was restless before the Red Wedding.

That warg could have...

1. Taken over Wun Wun

2. Attempted to control Jon as he was being stabbed (unable to get Longclaw out)

3. Taken over various of the Night's Watch (causing them to stab John) - as his first assailant seemed taken aback after Jon disarmed him.

From what we saw in Varamyr's prologue, when someone wargs into you, you feel quite distinctly. It seems to be highly unpleasant, or at least more than simple loss of control. Remember the woman screaming in agony and seemingly going mad?

Varamyr was a very powerful skinchanger (6 skins, and in the prologue he thinks about how he is more powerul than most, including Borroq) and he is unsucessful at slipping into a person - Thistle bites out her own tongue when he tries.

Bran is still more powerful, and the human he wargs is retarded. Yet the first time he tries he is still kicked out.

I don't think warging people is actually achievable for normal skinchangers, maybe only for Greenseers.

It's possible though that Borroq might attempt a forcible takeover of Ghost. It's starting to look like the Stark kids may be somewhat unusual in having a true partnership with their animals, and that the linked animals are often hostile. Will Ghost and memory-of-Jon have the strength to resist him?

[RedDeath]

Borroq might be helpful too. I thought that the animosity was mostly because Ghost wants to eat his big pig, but it could end up being Borroq is the only one that understands that Jon is in Ghost and therefore key to saving him. Or Bran my be able to communicate with him and thereby use him to help Jon.

[Ninotchka]

I didn't know where to link this... It's just a nonsense I made this afternoon (I was bored :rolleyes: ), another of those "Hitler finds out" videos as the one I made after episode 9 of the HBO series. Just for fun :lmao:

By the way, it's not that I actually think Jon is dead-dead... but for Hitler to have that reaction I thought it was better this way :blush:

[Brienne the Beauty]

I wonder why Marsh is crying? If anything, it seems like he is the one who wants Jon dead and not the one to be crying about doing it.

I interpret this as crying out of shame for killing his Lord Commander.

[Roza Ahai]

In the first Jon's chapter Jon thought about Mel's prophesy "king's blood and waking a dragon". Aemon thinks that this prophesy has a point and king's blood can do some magic stuff. The magic at the Wall is the strongest than anywhere else. In the last chapter Mormont's crow said a few words "corn, king, Jon Snow". If Jon is a king is there any chance to survive an assasination with mortal wounds?

[Brienne the Beauty]

Jon has two obvious ways to escape death close at hand.

Here's what I think will happen:

Jon wargs into Ghost at the point of death and escapes.

Melisandre breathes life into Jon's body but with the spirit left, it is empty and comatose like Drogo's body.

Jon wanders the wild as Ghost for a while, and finds out something important to do with the others, then returns to his real body.

Of course, this leaves him not quite alive, like Cat.

[Captain Know]

Very likely the wound to the stomach is bad enough to be fatal by itself given enough time. The others are impossible to tell given the lack of detail. But to have the knife stick in his stomach even through all the clothes would suggest that it went in a good 3+ inches and it would be very hard to miss something important if that is the case. Plus he really wasn't even trying after the belly wound so it was severe enough to take him down.

I wonder why Marsh is crying? If anything, it seems like he is the one who wants Jon dead and not the one to be crying about doing it. Perhaps he got warged by the other wildling and can't stop himself?

The knife stab in the abdomen is not fatal immediately unless the major blood vessels like the abdominal aorta or inferior vena cava are lacerated. Otherwise, it will be a slow death due to blood loss and fecal contamination of the abdominal cavity. The back stab is generally fatal. If the knife entry is on the left side of the spine, it can stab into the heart = dead. The right side will hit lung and cause a collapsed lung, bleeding and infection. so, basically, Jon will be pretty much dead...if not immediately, in a few hours.

All the previous comments about Mel being there, the smoke from the stab wounds (like Drogon's wounds in the pit that smoked) all point to a healing/resurrection by the Fire God. Jon is a product of Ice and Fire.

[Captain Know]

1. Jon survives by warging into Ghost: I don't think Jon lives on via Ghost. I believe it was Bran who was told that wargs who chose to stay in their animal host slowly faded away until very little trace is left. To take this fork in the road would have some major limitations on Jon's future role in plot.

2. Smoking wound: I can assure you a wound to the abdomen could smoke in cold weather. Take a bucket of hot tap water outside when the temps are hovering at 20 degrees and see what happens. It will smoke (water vapor.) Extrapolate that on a puncture of an abdomen, a puncture of a series of moist membranes which releases blood and other bodily fluids into contact with cold air. "Smoke" would be certain. The more problematic part is not the question of "would the wound smoke" but "could the smoke clear the clothing?" This attack happened in cold weather when everyone was wearing layers of clothing, to include heavy overcloaks of animal skins. This would significantly delay the contact of bodily fluids with cold air, depending on what Jon was wearing.

Jon having dragon blood is an infinitely more sexy explanation, but it is not the only explanation.

3. Unable to draw Longclaw: Longclaw is a bastard sword, longer than a longsword. We're talking a weapon with an overall length approaching four feet. This is not an easy weapon to draw in the best of circumstances, certainly not something easily whipped out in close quarters, and if four people get close enough to you to stab you with a dagger, you are at close quarter battle. Drawing a long sword when four people are within arms reach of you is going to be a problem, as one or more of them will have one hand on you somewhere trying to hold you still whilst they stab you with the other.

4. Survive/resurrect: Jon's wounds are fatal without treatment. Who better to treat such a wound than Melissandre? Agree with early comment that resurrection has not been overused. We are only 5 installments and ca 4000 pages into the story. If resurrection can happen, it is arguably surprising that it hasn't happened more often. Moreover, the resurrections south of the wall are all attributable to R'hllor, so Mel's resurrection of Jon would be entirely consistent with the storyline thus far.

I think the use of the word "smoke" is peculiar however, and therefore significant. Warm moisture would "steam' in that extreme cold. "Smoke" can be explained way as you mention above, but I do think it is somewhat peculiar and we need to pay attention to that, because the dragon's spear wounds "smoked' as well. (yes, the dragon has a furnace inside...but if Mel has a hand in this, Jon may well have "fire" inside to save him.)

Also, I thought the description of Jon not being about to pull the sword out was not because it was too long as a bastard sword, but I read it more as if he just couldn't get his hand to move...like he was drugged, or under a spell or something. In fact, I looked back to see if perhaps JOn had some ale to drink in hall (which could have been poisoned), but there is no mention. Instead, I believe some kind of magical effect is taking place. However...we have 3 to 5 years to find out. I hope Martin stays healthy to live long enough to finish everything.

[Slingingstones]

All living mammal fluid, waste, and breath vapor steam at 20 ̊f, it would be problematic for Jon and the storyline, lying face down in the snow if he wasn't steaming in one way or another. Sudden death causes the muscles that control the bladder and bowels to release. Gravity and ambient air temp do the rest.

[Total Depravity]

Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming.

This line could be construed to mean that Wick was warged. But I don' think it is likely. It seems to me more like he is yielding. If he was warged, would he act in such a self preserving way? I'm not sure.

Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. “Why?” “For the Watch.”....Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. “For the Watch.” He punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

1. FOR THE WATCH. I think that both of them say, "For the Watch" is pretty telling. I think it is fair to assume they had their wits about them and knew their reasons. They did this For the Watch. It is possible they were warged? Certainly. But I think it is unlikely.

2. BOWEN'S TEARS. I think it more likely that Bowen regrets having to kill the LC, a serious act of treason, and one that could shatter the NW. Not to mention he is one of the stewards. Not the most coldblooded of men on the Wall.

3. THE CONSPIRACY. When you add in the evidence posted here by others that parse out a plan to probably kill Jon on the way to Hardhome (in league with the Queen and her men perhaps) it becomes more likely that the timetable was moved up due to Bolton's letter.

4. WARGING TWO MEN AT ONCE? I am not convinced the skinchanger had the power to pull this off. Think about it. If you are correct, he warged two grown men at the same time, Men of the Night's Watch at that. That is no small feat. I don't think Bran or Jon could accomplish that. Now that I recall, Varamyr couldn't control Thistle. True, Varamyr was wounded, but I still think warging two grown men at the same time...if this guy is that powerful, he'd be more renowned than Sixskins.

5. THE BUILDING TENSION. It would also cheapen the plot development within the book itself if Jon's battle with the factions of the NW didn't materialize. This showdown had been building since he became LC. I find it odd to undercut it. I think the skinchanger was added only to give some sufficient reason to keep Ghost locked up somewhere (still stupid stupid stupid and makes no sense).

---

Mel is around the corner.

On a separate note, this was very intriguing to me. Why did we not get Mel's reaction to the Stannis letter? Why was she not even there? There is some purpose in her absence. It is not coincidence.

[Golden Imp]

I did not read though the whole thread, but did anyone mention what Melisandre saw in her fires? Where she saw daggers all around him and skulls and she said she saw as a man then a wolf then a man again? also the colors around him were red and orange.

I wonder if Mel saw not only his death but also him coming back from death, "A man then a wolf, then a man again"?

She said she prayed for a glimpse of AA and all she saw was Snow.

[ruffles589]

My question is where is Ghost? Cause most theories have Jon warging into him, but what if Ghost acts like Grey Wind and starts killing people.

[Ygritte]

On a separate note, this was very intriguing to me. Why did we not get Mel's reaction to the Stannis letter? Why was she not even there? There is some purpose in her absence. It is not coincidence.

I think the news (false or not) of Stannis's death, when it reaches Mel, is going to make her start up her Sekrit Azor Ahai Reviving Ritual and she'll raise Jon by accident, and that it's not in the book because it would be too big a clue that Jon is going to wake back up. But that's just one theory.

[Golden Imp]

My question is where is Ghost? Cause most theories have Jon warging into him, but what if Ghost acts like Grey Wind and starts killing people.

Ghost was lock in Jons room, because he did not want him to start fight with the boar. I am sure if Rob warged into Grey Wind he would want to fight given the situation going on at the Twins. Ghost/Jon may or may not do the same thing.