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[ADwD Spoilers] Varys


sipho

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Exactly. A true peace, rather than one that must be constantly enforced with the threat of military intervention (i.e. the peace of Robert "fetch-me-my-hammer" Baratheon).

Except when in the history of the Westeros has this really occured?

It can't with the feudal setup of the continent. Vary's like everyone else is blinded by his own agenda. The Houses can be kept down with the threat of force (i.e. Dragons), but eventually they will want a bigger share of the pie or independence.

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This means very little, that's why it's obvious but unimportant, thus largely unmentioned. It would mean something but for the fact that there are quite a few non-Targaryens whose names end with -rys.

Examples:

Orys Baratheon

Arys Oakheart

Gorys Edoryen

Harys Swyft

Yes, there are other characters with names that end in rys, but one here or there.

Nearly a 3rd of the Targ rulers listed in the Wiki have names that end with rys. Add the nys and that is half of the Targ monarchs.

While it shows up a few other places, it dominates the Targaryen family tree.

EVERYTHING Vary's has done throughout the books has been done to restore the Targaryen's to power. EVERYTHING.

His conversation with Illyrio.

His pitting Stark against Lannister.

His sending a warning to Joreh/Viserys warning them of the price on Viserys/Dany's heads.

The YG plot.

All of his manipulation of the events in KL.

All of it is to put the Targaryens back in power, and what better motive than if he is a Targ himself.

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You're missing my entire point. Aegon is the one who he, and his, spent 17 years training to rule the realm in the way that they saw fit. Why even bother if you're going to give the crown to Renly, or someone like him? All of these people are lords who have never struggled a day in their lives. Illyrio and Varys came from nothing. They want someone who knows what that is like to have the rule, so that they might show some compassion to those that still live their lives the way that theirs began. Everything else they have done is a means to that end. Aegon is the king that they want because they made him into what they needed with their own persons, and resources.

Aegon was and is an untested boy. There's no reason to believe that he'd be more capable than Renly or some other noble, just because he had to struggle. Viserys had to struggle to survive too. Ramsay Bolton had a rough childhood. Rorge and Biter were pretty badly treated as kids too, I imagine. Aegon's possible leadership qualities are a question mark. Throwing away the peace and prosperity that did exist in hopes that Aegon could become a philosopher king from legend doesn't sound like the work of a man who cares primarily about the realm.

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Aegon was and is an untested boy. There's no reason to believe that he'd be more capable than Renly or some other noble, just because he had to struggle. Viserys had to struggle to survive too. Ramsay Bolton had a rough childhood. Rorge and Biter were pretty badly treated as kids too, I imagine. Aegon's possible leadership qualities are a question mark. Throwing away the peace and prosperity that did exist in hopes that Aegon could become a philosopher king from legend doesn't sound like the work of a man who cares primarily about the realm.

Which is why it only makes sense if Vary's end goal is to put a Targ on the throne. Varys doesn't work for peace. He doesn't work for the small folk. He might use those justifications when convincing people of his motivations, but the only thing he has consistently worked for is putting a Targ on the iron throne.

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Varys doesn't want a stable realm if that stability is under a ruler who believes he's entitled. If he encouraged the mad king, it was to bring about his ultimate downfall. And Tommen might have a heart of gold...but he's still a product of the system that Varys hates. It's like that riddle he asked Tyrion about where authority lies. True authority lies with the people who allow rulers like the mad king, or Joffery, or even Cersei and Tommen to treat them the way they do. (Maybe his eastern origins have influenced his political beliefs, what with the Free Cities and all. Aren't they more democratic?) But he's not above getting his hands dirty to accomplish his ultimate goal. He wants peace, but he's willing to put the realm through war to get to it. He wants a worthy ruler on the throne, but he's willing to depose Tommen (who's not a bad person, not yet...not that that would make him a good ruler) to get there. He plays all sides, such as when he supported Robert's assassination attempt on Dany instead of sticking up for her like Ned and Ser Barristan. There's no way he could have predicted the dragons being born, and considering his hatred of all things Magic, I don't know if she really has any of his support right now. And, if his Aegon is the real thing, who was the little boy who got his head smashed in? Did Varys have anything to do with that? Even if he is all about the children, I wouldn't put such a monstrosity beyond him. The ends justify the means for him. He's all about the ultimate greater good. And that might make him a monster, but to him the monsters are the ones who, for the sake of peace or even honor, allow things to keep going on the way they are. In other words, even while helping Ned to save Robert, he is ultimately working toward Robert's downfall because he's the kind of king who lets a poor butcher's boy get murdered by a noble and won't give him justice for it. He works alongside the mad king just like Ser Barristan, but while Barristan honorably serves a king who has descended into madness, Varys dishonorably encourages his paranoia to bring about his downfall all the quicker. Cersei, Joffery, Tommen...none of them are good enough for Varys. He wants to see a king on the throne who is all about the people, and he'll see a lot of "the people" dead to get there.

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He wants to see a king on the throne who is all about the people, and he'll see a lot of "the people" dead to get there.

Okay. I could see a version of Varys that is a fanatical extremist in service to some credo or other, and I've often theorized along similar lines. But then Varys isn't really serving the realm or the greater good at all.

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One thing that gets me is that YG hasn't really shown any signs of being the wonderful ruler Varys believes he is. I can't remember him ever talking about the common people of Westeros, only about how he's going to gain power.

If Varys truly wants what he says he wants, he's probably going to be very disappointed in YG.

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He wants to see a king on the throne who is all about the people, and he'll see a lot of "the people" dead to get there.

I don't want to make this personal, but don't you see how the second half of this sentence contradicts the first half. Varys' own actions contradict the idea that his motivation is the "good of the realm" or the "plight of the people" or any other noble cause you can assign him. The only motivation for which he is consistent is to restore the Targaryens to power. Plain and simple. He is a Targ man.

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Varys didn't dispose of Aerys. Jaime disposed of Aerys. Varys actively encouraged Aerys's insanity, leading him to be so overwhelmed by paranoia that he planned to burn down King's Landing.

In fairness, we don't know that. We have someone thinking that's the case, someone who has reason to distrust Varys. And we have Barristan thinking something along those lines, but Barristan's not exactly a "spymaster" type of guy.

I'm not saying Varys didn't, but we don't have a reliable source to confirm that he was the one who fueled Aerys' paranoia. It's quite possible, but we don't know yet.

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Varys' own actions contradict the idea that his motivation is the "good of the realm" or the "plight of the people" or any other noble cause you can assign him. The only motivation for which he is consistent is to restore the Targaryens to power. Plain and simple. He is a Targ man.

People delude themselves all the time that their candidate is the best person for the country, and they're often willing to sustain collateral damage along the way in the name of the "greater good." That's the contradiction at the heart of utilitarianism.

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In fairness, we don't know that. We have someone thinking that's the case, someone who has reason to distrust Varys. And we have Barristan thinking something along those lines, but Barristan's not exactly a "spymaster" type of guy.

Jaime doesn't have reason to distrust Varys, aside from watching how he acted under Aerys. Jaime didn't give a fig about the politics of the realm before late in ASOS, so he wouldn't have been tangling with Varys the way that Cersei would.

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Which is why it only makes sense if Vary's end goal is to put a Targ on the throne. Varys doesn't work for peace. He doesn't work for the small folk. He might use those justifications when convincing people of his motivations, but the only thing he has consistently worked for is putting a Targ on the iron throne.

Yes. Either he has a fanatical belief that only descendants of Aegon the Conqueror are the true rulers of Westeros or he himself is a Targ and and as was stated, wants to restore his family to power. I'm leaning towards a Varys Targaryen myself. I read where GRRM stated that the names of the characters were a better indicator of heritage than physical characteristics. He mentioned the "ae" combination in most of the Targ line. "Viserys" violates this rule, so perhaps "Varys" is close enough as well.

Also I'm starting to wonder if he is even a eunuch. As Kevan is dying he thinks to himself that Varys voice seems deeper. That is an odd thought to write in if it isn't a hint that Varys may be even more of a mystery than we think.

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The only motivation for which he is consistent is to restore the Targaryens to power. Plain and simple. He is a Targ man.

Yet he is widely accused of being the person who poisoned the mind of King Aerys. What sense does it make for Varys to drive Aerys to insanity, to the point where he fears his own shadow, and ends up causing a major war that nearly wipes out every living Targ? Everyone in the books thinks that Rhaeger would have been this incredible and amazing ruler. And Rhaeger is one of the only characters who realizes that The Others are coming back and Dragons will be needed to stop them. The crowds of people cheered Rhager louder than anyone else alive.

Varys causes the downfall of Aerys and Rhaegar and so many Targ loyalists. The Targs lose the throne and Robert strips tons of Targ loyalists of their Lordships and gives them to his own people. And Robert elevates the Lannisters to a position of extreme authority. The Targs had literally no chance of coming back after that war without a miracle. Only Dany giving birth to three Dragons gives them a chance and Varys could not have predicted that. Without Dany and her Dragons the Targs would have no chance of doing much of anything. Viserys was wild and broken and almost suicidal. Fake Aegon is foolish and is duped by Tyrion in a few sentences. Dany's rise to power is pure luck for Varys and he doesn't even care about her it seems.

I doubt that Varys is a Targ loyalist. We can infer from the House of the Undying that this New Aegon isn't even a Targ. He's the Mummer's Dragon and Dany will cut him down. "Slayer of lies". If Varys is a Targ loyalist he's woefully inefficient at being one considering he drives Aerys insane and causes a war that gets Rhaegar killed.

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I am not convinced that Varys had that much to do with making Aerys crazy. We have the speculation of several people including a man who admittedly has no interest in castle intrigues and despises Varys just because of what he is.

I will have to reread looking for details of Vary's actions during those times, but I can't think of anything specific that Varys had done that contributed to the downfall of Aerys or Rhaegar.

Of all the actions that we know he did, they are all to put a Targ on the throne.

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One thing that gets me is that YG hasn't really shown any signs of being the wonderful ruler Varys believes he is. I can't remember him ever talking about the common people of Westeros, only about how he's going to gain power.

If Varys truly wants what he says he wants, he's probably going to be very disappointed in YG.

Yup, this. We got the same look at Aegon that Tyrion did, and more. He may have "lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes", but he still acts like a spoiled, entitled fool - far more so than Tommen, who is a child. Aegon throws a tantrum when Tyrion beats him at cyvasse, he's obviously never considered the possibility that his aunt might not want to marry him, he has already started to disregard Jon Connington's advice, and the ease with which Tyrion manipulates him into wanting to invade Westeros instead of going to Daenerys doesn't indicate much wit or intelligence.

Varys tells Kevan he did it "for the realm. For the children" - if Aegon really is the son of Rhaegar, I can believe that Varys is doing it for the children of Rhaegar. He is certainly not doing it for welfare of the people in the realm, which Kevan was pacifying and stabilizing.

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Greatjon Umber explained it before proclaiming the King in the North:

"MY LORDS!" he shouted . . . "Here is what I say to these two kings!" He spat. "Renly Baratheon is nothing to me, nor Stannis neither. Why should they rule over me and mine, from some flowery seat in Highgarden or Dorne? What do they know of the Wall or the wolfswood or the barrows fo the First Men? Even their gods are wrong. The others take the Lannisters too, I've had a bellyful of them." . . . "Why shouldn't we rule ourselves again? It was the dragons we married, and the dragons are all dead!" . . . "There sits the only king I mean to bow my knee to, m'lords . . ."

There were seven independent kingdoms for the thousands of years since the Andal invasion, with kingdoms of the First Men going back further than that. They likely fought continually, making and breaking alliances, dynasties rising and falling, but none ever conquered the others. The Targaryeans came from outside and climbed on top of the feudal hierarchy. Just another liege to bend the knee to. But the seven recognized them, because they soundly beat all of them (yes, Dorne too, eventually), and more importantly, they were not one of the seven. The seven remained equal, but recognized another as overlord.

Without the Targaryeans, the options are only independence, or constant war. The seven will not tolerate one of their own ruling the others, not forever. The Targaryeans ruled for almost 300 years. The next house for only 17, and then an immediate succession war. Not just a dynastic conflict, but an all-out, continent-wide civil war. One of the great houses has been nearly destroyed, one stripped of its titie, four have had their heads murdered and many others killed, and the las two are bloodied, with the latest alliances chilly at best. What is the greater number, five, or one? And winter is coming.

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Aegon was and is an untested boy. There's no reason to believe that he'd be more capable than Renly or some other noble, just because he had to struggle. Viserys had to struggle to survive too. Ramsay Bolton had a rough childhood. Rorge and Biter were pretty badly treated as kids too, I imagine. Aegon's possible leadership qualities are a question mark. Throwing away the peace and prosperity that did exist in hopes that Aegon could become a philosopher king from legend doesn't sound like the work of a man who cares primarily about the realm.

I can see this is going nowhere, but it's more than that. They controlled what he learned and from who. They know what his personality type is. They know what he likes, loves, hates, and what his dreams are. I'm not saying that's how it's gonna go down, but I am that is what Varys and Illyrio believe will happen based on their extensive efforts to mold and shape the boy. They didn't know those other people (who WERE all pieces of trash, btw). They don't really know Tommen either. They put their trust in Aegon because they KNOW him. They and their people were with him every step of the way through his life. How could they not? That is where their confidence comes from.

I'm not predicting the future, just saying what I think is on Varys' mind. Who knows if he is right or not, but going with the option that you oversaw, who is actually the rightful king besides, certainly makes more sense than hanging all your hopes on a random lord who raises a rebellion against the current regime with no rightful claim to power. Aegon's claim and his carefully molded life and education make him the perfect candidate for this plan, both politically and in practice. From the perspective of Varys and Illyrio, that is. Again, I don't know if it will work out that way, I'm not GRRM, but that is what Varys says with his own words when he's speaking to dying Kevan Lannister. From the text:

“Aegon?” For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. “Dead. He’s dead.”

“No.” The eunuch’s voice seemed deeper. “He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”

Which is why it only makes sense if Vary's end goal is to put a Targ on the throne. Varys doesn't work for peace. He doesn't work for the small folk. He might use those justifications when convincing people of his motivations, but the only thing he has consistently worked for is putting a Targ on the iron throne.

In this case, working for the greater good IS putting a Targaryen on the throne. He is the rightful king of the seven kingdoms, if he really is Aegon (which I believe he is). When he took him from the crib he did so because he saw an opportunity to use his birthright for the greater good by molding Aegon into a man fit to be a king. And, for me, this is totally not personal. I'm just arguing for what I strongly believe are the motives for all of this. If you notice, the only people to whom Varys has revealed what he claims to be his true motives are co-conspiritors, and dead men (Kevan Lannister and Ned Stark). That speaks volumes, in and of itself.

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"Aegon" might be Varys plan C or D. IF he really wanted to do the best for the realm his original plan was to replace the Mad King with Rhaegar. When Rhaegar died he knew he had to bide his time until younger Targaeryans grew up and decided to support Robert for a while, already planning to remove him. Fast forward until Viserys is old enough: he starts the civil war in hope that Viserys uses the opportunity to invade. Viserys is crowned but Danaerys takes his place, even getting Dragons. This gives the opportunity to bring "Aegon" into play (perhaps to take more control) but Dany sits in Mereen and Aegon invades on his own.

Varys is, like Littlefinger, no Chessmaster, he is more a Xanatos Roulette player with a bit Xanatos Speed Chess included: they both try to keep up as much confusion and chaos as possible and hope that they are the fastest to react to opportunities. That gives them the air of great planners while they are just lucky. Westeros needs Lord Vetinari...

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