[ADWD SPOILERS] Ned, Brandon and Ashara

[Whatever]

Barristan appears to 'know' at least in his own mind, what happened. He could be wrong. If he is not, how could he 'know'?

well, he *knows* ashara had an affair. I don't think he could know whether she really had a stillborn daughter because he was fighting in the war. Arthur probably told him, but i don't know if he had any reason to lie. probably not, because the child was born to soon to be a part in a hypotetical baby-switch related to the ToJ thing.

Talking about time, i read somewhere above that the war started like 1-2 years after harrenhall... as far as i know, the war *ended* 2 years after harrenhall (jaime was 17) and lasted more than one year (18-16 months is my guess). A child conceived at harrenhall (because barristan said ashara was "dishonored" at harrenhall - by the way, i don't think he meant "raped" if he did, he would have said so) would have born 3 months into the war, which is WAY before ashara killed herself. Whoever the child's father was, we know that by the time of the birth, brandon was already dead (was killed just before the beginning of the war) and ned was married to cat (he got married right after he reached the riverlands with his bannermen. Three months are [barely] enough to go from the vale to winterfell and come back with an army). So, if ashara really killed herself over grief for her dead baby and lost lover... why did she waited so long?

my guesses are either

1)arthur's death by ned's hand (if he's the father. I believe he's more likely than brandon) was the last drop, expecially because ashara was likely the one who said to ned where to find lyanna/arthur. She felt guilty

2)she didn't kill herself. bla, bla, bla, septa lenore, bla.

Ashara as septa lenore makes more sense than tyene's mother, by the way. We know tyene is blonde, oberyn was not, so her mother surely was - yet septa lenore has light brown hairs, i think. We don't know about ashara's hair color - we only know she was "tall and fair" with purple eyes.

[MtnLion]

I don't believe he connects Stark directly to Harrenhal, but it doesn't say anything about looking to Stark after the birth. No timeline indication for when she "looked to" Stark is given.

The timeline by inference is the last thing that Barristan thinks of, after Harrenhal, after the stillbirth, implicitly just before she leaps.

Nothing to grieve for regarding Oberyn. Quite doubtful therefore that he was the man who dishonored her, and obviously he's not Stark either :) And he's only an option if Stark and the dishonor man are different, and I really don't think they are, although it's possible.

Nothing to grieve for in Oberyn, nothing to grieve for in Brandon, as she was probably in the Red Keep when Aerys murdered him. What about her brother, though?

Edit:

The way I originally read it was that the day he told her of the betrothal was their last night together, but no date info was given. It's also quite possible that the last night they spent together was just before he went to Riverrun which would I believe be years after the betrothal.

There is no reason to assume anything other than honorable for any of the Starks, and you are lending credance to a story that in my opinion is completely a fabrication intended to determine Theon's loyalties. She still has tender feelings for Brandon and Rickon, by her actions, but one would expect a different action from her. I suspect that she has tender feelings for Ned and Robb, too, in spite of what she says.

[Dragonfish]

DP

[Dragonfish]

There is nothing to suggest that it was not the same day that she learned of the betrothal, either is there?

You're the one who was trying to disqualify the B+A theory by saying that Brandon broke off his affair immediately after being betrothed to Catelyn, and therefore was not likely to start another affair with another woman after being betrothed. My point was that we actually don't know when Brandon broke it off, and therefore your disqualification of the theory doesn't hold.

The point is that making a lot of assumptions you can turn a vague bit of text into whatever is desired. To say that Brandon and Eddard dishonored anyone is a stretch.

This is pretty funny coming from the guy who thinks Oberyn was the father.

[ishmael]

"Soon after", not 'shortly after'.

And that doesn't give us a good idea of the time. We just know that it is a period that a 60+ year old man who wasn't even present at one of the events conflates two events from nearly 20 years back as being relatively close - very vague, and not at all specific.

For example, a legendary NZ sportsperson Sir Richard Hadlee passed a major world record barrier (first person past 400 Test Wickets) in 1988 on his home ground in my home town. As far as I am concerned he retired 'soon after', but if I look it up it is actually mid 1990 that he played his last game and retired.

Please define the difference between "soon after" and "shortly after."

I would buy your argument of him condensing the event surrounding Ashara if he did not have two major events to use as a point of reference when thinking about them. Just because he links those two things (the stillbirth and the dishonoring)together in a thought 20 years after the fact does not mean that those two events occurred at or near the same time in real time. For example, Ashara could have had sex with Ned at Harrenhal (which Barristan would have considered dishonoring her), but she did not actually get pregnant until just after the start of the war. This example would allow for her to have been dishonored at Harrenhal and had a stillbirth near the end of the war, which would match up better with the facts that we know abotu her death, but the two events are mutually exclusive of each other.

Yes.

We do know he was there.

We saw in his mind he loved her, and thus had motive to be paying attention to what was happening with her while he was around.

We also saw in his mind that he thinks he 'knows' what happened with her.

We also know her 'job' was Handmaid to Elia, which puts her in his proximity in the Red Keep most of the time - that was how he had the opportunity to fall in love with her in the first place we assume.

He doesn't ever need to approach her. He has means, motive and opportunity to be paying close attention to her doings. We know he was 'around', we know he paid special attention to her, and we know he thinks he knows. That's a fairly good case, though definitely not open and shut. He could be wrong. Its certainly a lot better case than anyone else whose evidence we are looking at!

He was there, but he has two primary jobs while there. He is competing, and makes the finals of the jousting, and to protect the King and the royal family. While he would have some down time or some free time, he would not have had the freedom to watch her so closely that he would know everything she is doing. He would get to see bits and pieces of her comings and goings, so what he would know might not be very accurate.

How do we know she returned to Starfall and spent time there with her family? We have no information on her whereabouts between Harrenhal and post ToJ. Her 'job' was at KL.

In fact GRRM has specifically said she was not nailed down to Starfall through the war.

We know because GRRM's response places her at Starfall during the war. GRRM's response implies that Starfall is her home base so to speak, but she can freely move about. She was also there when the war ended, and for the months after the end of the war until Ned arrives.

Sorry, but 'soon after' is practically the definition of vague. It can mean anything depending on context and the viewer. A kid says 'soon after' and it probably means a very short time. A retiree says 'soon after' and it could be several years. Or 5 minutes. Someone says 'soon after' talking about geological progression and it could be 10 million years.

We know she committed suicide after Ned arrived at Starfall. This occurs better than 2 years after Harrenhal. Nothing about Barristan gives us the impression that his mind is not very clear or that he muddles things together. The stillbirth and the suicide did occur close in time relative to each other. Her dishonoring at Harrenhal happened about two years prior. Just because he thinks about two events in Ashara's life that could have contributed to her suicide does not mean that those two events are closely related in time.

Possibly he could if he was trying to figure it out. But he wasn't, at all. He was musing on relationships, not timing details.

GRRM is good. His people think like real people, not some machine that spits out facts for the readers. Time compression for distantly past events is common. It is not a requirement, but that fact that it happens, is real and is common gives a solid reason why Barristan's otherwise reliable evidence about relationships might be slightly less reliable about timing.

I'm not saying it must be true.

I'm saying that this removes the 'timing doesn't fit perfectly' as a disqualifier. It can;t be a disqualifier because it makes reasonable sense for it to be slightly disconnected given the circumstances.

If Barristan was 20, thinking about last month, then we wouldn't accept this sort of timing disconnect. But he isn't, he's 60+ thinking about events nearly 20 years ago. Not getting the timing right when he isn't concentrating on it is probably more realistic than getting it right!

The "soon after" only applies to the stillbirth, and does have any relation to what happened at Harrenhal. He just combined two thought into one sentence. This does not mean that these two things are related. I don't think what he said was all that vague, but you are trying to make seem vague to bolster your argument.

Right. Basically Winterfell men, more or less. Who know Ned went to Starfall, came back with Jon and a wetnurse, and hear that the beautiful Ashara Dayne committed suicide after Ned's visit.

Some may even remember, or later connect, rumours about Ashara from Harrenhal. How she had an affair with a Stark, or something similar.

When the gossip mill starts, the back gossip gets raked up too.

The point is that these rumours start after the war, but even as they start may include older rumours from Harrenhal. After all, Ned returning with Jon and Ashara jumping into the sea are perfect subjects for speculating on those old rumours about Harrenhal that were never very clear... "Hah, now we (old winterfel soldier) 'know' what happened at Harrenhal after all. It all makes sense."

Note that this line of speculation and rumouring follows exactly the same regardless of what actually happened at Harrenhal as long as no one really knew everything that happened.

Which tells us nothing about N+A relationship.

It tells us Ned was shy, though does not say if it means generally shy or specifically-to-Ashara shy.

It tells us Brandon and Ned both had contact with Ashara.

It tells us she danced with Ned at Brandon's request - which could be the start of a romance (N+A) or could just as easily be B+A with Brandon asking Ashara to help out his shy little brother. We don't know.

Little important detail there.

We have a Dayne, who was probably too young to be involved, or even be Ashara's confidante (read up the rest of the thread if you don't know about this), telling another Dayne who was definitely not even born at the time.

We aren't seeing a Dayne official family story here, we are just seeing one second hand account becoming a third hand account.

It might be the Dayne official history. It might be truth. But we don't know that and we don't have any evidence that Allyria knows more than anyone else in Westeros about what really happened.

What we have here is three separate groups coming to the same conclusion about the same two people. The first we hear of it is from Cat. She confronts Ned about whether Ashara is Jon's mother, and Ned becomes very angry. She is actually scared of him. Many want to quote the "he is my blood..." line and leave out the rest where he asks where she heard that name and how Ashara's name was never whispered again in Winterfell. I disagree with your theory that the men are only taking into account what happened after the war. When Ned returned with "his" bastard, he would have had to have had a story to go along with it. The only story we know of from Ned was Wylla the commoner. The problem is that his men believe their Lord defeated Arthur Dayne in single combat, something he doesn't talk about much, but do not beleive that he fathered a bastard on a common woman during the war, despite that being the story he has to tell. Instead, they whisper about Ashara Dayne and their Lord. Harrenhal would have been about 3 year ago at this point, so most would not have known anything about N+A there, and they most likely would not give it any credence when the Lord is telling them something else.

The Reed story is the truthful introduction to how Ned and Ashara first met. This is later supported by Harwin, but in his telling we are given the reasons why it would not be such a big deal for Ned to be involved with her more than we are given details. Although, we are told that Brandon was already betrothed at Harrehal, and later Lady Dustin indicates that her relationship (or whatever you want to call their time together) ended shortly after Brandon learned of the betrothal.

The Daynes are the most interesting part of this puzzle. I agree that Allyria and Eddric were too young and not born at the time of the events surrounding Ned and Ashara, that's not the point and you are the one that keeps missing that. They are only tailend of this rumor and only gathered this information from the Daynes who were around and had knowledge of the events, for example Mother and Father Dayne or Eddric's father. These are the people who have passed the information about Ashara and Ned being in love. Allyria and Eddric would have been, what, at least 8 before this information was passed on. Allyria didn't just pull it out of her butt and decide, yeah that makes a good story I'll tell Eddic that. She had to be told the information she passed on to Eddric from one of the adults present during the romance.

The question that has been asked and you still have not answered is: Why have the Daynes (not Allyria and Eddric0 passed this information on within their family if the entire Ned+Ashara story is just a story? Allyria and Eddric were too young to have any knowledge about anything that happened during and certainly before the war, but the Daynes make sure they know about their feelings for each other. They very easily could have let the rumor die, but instead kept it alive by passing it on. This makes it the official Dayne story. Had Allyria not been told the story, it would not have been a second hand story to be passed on to become a third hand story. Allyria and Eddric are minor players as far as this rumor is concerned. The question is: Why were they ever told if it was all just a lie?

No, Ned has not admitted Wylla was the mother (that we know of). That was just dunderhead Robert making assumptions and Ned letting him believe them. Robert's just happy that Ned isn't as annoyingly perfect/boring as he always seemed and has no care beyond that (assuming it doesn't impact on Lyanna/Rhaegar of course).

It is clear that winterfell rumours had Ashara as Jon's mother as that was what Catelyn picked up from them.

Its very straitforward. Ned brings back Jon and says nothing other than this boy is my blood and will be raised in my household. Nothing at all about the mother. Winterfell gossip turns Ashara into the mother for obvious reasons - just come from starfall with baby Jon, Ashara suicided, possible connections between the young Starks and Ashara from a couple of years back at Harrenhal. Back in KL Robert is blythely ignorant and just assumes Wylla as mum as she was the one nursing Jon when Ned passed through on the way back to winterfell.

There is nothing inconsistent here, regardless of what the real Stark+Ashara story was.

Ned cannot allow there to be any real questions about who Jon's mother is. He would have to address this issue from the start. The questions are going to take one of two roads. Either Ned's loyalty would come into question or Jon's parentage would be questioned. Ned cannot afford either of these to occur. He must have a story to accompany him returning with a young child. I'm not say he held a parade and sent letters to every house in the realm or had a press conference at Winterfell where he announced he had an affair during the war and fathered a bastard. But, he would have to have a story to tell Robert, who would then pass that information along his inner circle. The "leaking" of his story would have been subtle, but still would have been effective. It was odd enough that Ned brought his bastard home, but if he did not have a cover story, he opens him and Jon up to too many questions. Robert would accept whatever Ned told him. If Ned said he had Jon with a baboon, then Robert would buy it. Varys, Littlefinger, and Tywin are not as gullible as Robert. These three men would not let the possibility of Ned fraternizing with the enemy during the war slide. The Daynes were the enemy. If it comes out that Ned had any involvement with Ashara during the war, he has committed treason against the new and rightful King. Ned cannot very well keep his promises to Lyanna if he gets his head lopped off for treason. He has to have a story to explain where is bastard came from, but also when the rumors about Ashara started getting louder in his castle, he shut them down hard.

While we have nothing that states outright that he did confess that Wylla is the mother of his child, it is only logical that he had a story concerning Jon's mother ready to make it not something all that interesting that prying eyes might want to look into. I've gotten the impression that while Wylla being Jon's mother was not widely discussed or discussed regularly, it "was known" and just accepted (especially after Ned laid the smack down over the Ashara rumors at Winterfell).

[MtnLion]

You're the one who was trying to disqualify the B+A theory by saying that Brandon broke off his affair immediately after being betrothed to Catelyn, and therefore was not likely to start another affair with another woman after being betrothed. My point was that we actually don't know when Brandon broke it off, and therefore your disqualification of the theory doesn't hold.

This is pretty funny coming from the guy who thinks Oberyn was the father.

Personally, I don't know who, but we have Barristan saying the young girls tend to choose fire over mud. You and your buddy point to that to indicate that it is Brandon. I say why couldn't the other firey individual, known to consort with noblewomen out of wedlock (lots of proof), have been the one to dishonor Ashara. When there is something that is more likely, turn your blind eye to it, it will go away. :P

[Dragonfish]

Personally, I don't know who, but we have Barristan saying the young girls tend to choose fire over mud. You and your buddy point to that to indicate that it is Brandon. I say why couldn't the other firey individual, known to consort with noblewomen out of wedlock (lots of proof), have been the one to dishonor Ashara. When there is something that is more likely, turn your blind eye to it, it will go away. :P

Well, there is no "lots of proof" that Oberyn was known to consort with noblewomen out of wedlock. You only gave me one good example.

But anyway, as I and others have said before, there is no reason why Ashara would grieve for Oberyn. You have yet to offer an adequate explanation for why she would. It seems to me that you're the only one who is turning a blind eye to more likely theories, in order to cling to your pet theory.

[Jon AS]

Ned cannot allow there to be any real questions about who Jon's mother is. He would have to address this issue from the start. The questions are going to take one of two roads. Either Ned's loyalty would come into question or Jon's parentage would be questioned. Ned cannot afford either of these to occur. He must have a story to accompany him returning with a young child. I'm not say he held a parade and sent letters to every house in the realm or had a press conference at Winterfell where he announced he had an affair during the war and fathered a bastard. But, he would have to have a story to tell Robert, who would then pass that information along his inner circle. The "leaking" of his story would have been subtle, but still would have been effective. It was odd enough that Ned brought his bastard home, but if he did not have a cover story, he opens him and Jon up to too many questions. Robert would accept whatever Ned told him. If Ned said he had Jon with a baboon, then Robert would buy it. Varys, Littlefinger, and Tywin are not as gullible as Robert. These three men would not let the possibility of Ned fraternizing with the enemy during the war slide. The Daynes were the enemy. If it comes out that Ned had any involvement with Ashara during the war, he has committed treason against the new and rightful King. Ned cannot very well keep his promises to Lyanna if he gets his head lopped off for treason. He has to have a story to explain where is bastard came from, but also when the rumors about Ashara started getting louder in his castle, he shut them down hard.

Actually not telling a clear story other than claiming Jon as his son is the best course of action here. If anybody really decided to investigate (as far as we know, nobody ever did; probably a bit of a social taboo, inquiring after another man's bastard children), a direct lie can be proven relatively easily, but if he's vague about it and lets others think that this is because he's embarassed for having had an extramarital affair, rumours are going to spring up in the most unexpected places (like the Sisters) and muddy the waters so much that nobody can discern the truth. And every rumour will agree on the one, undisputed (even by Ned) fact: that Jon is the son of Eddard Stark.

[Marix]

There is no reason to assume anything other than honorable for any of the Starks, and you are lending credance to a story that in my opinion is completely a fabrication intended to determine Theon's loyalties. She still has tender feelings for Brandon and Rickon, by her actions, but one would expect a different action from her. I suspect that she has tender feelings for Ned and Robb, too, in spite of what she says.

Rather than think about possible motives the lady might have for sharing that story, think about what the author's motives might be for putting it into the book. There are a million things she could have told Theon if she wanted to test his loyalty...if that was what the author intended - which I doubt.

Why would Martin write a scene like that, only to drop the whole Theon/Lady Dustin interaction when Theon escapes Winterfell? I would argue that the whole scene was included only to inform us of Brandon's true character.

[Brucolac]

You not only can, you must unless you infer another occasion that isn't referenced.

Barristan mused he maybe she would have looked to him instead of Stark.

That means, whenever she looked to Stark, Barristan must have been a viable choice to look to instead. Therefore Barristan and Stark must have both been available for her to look to.

The only place we know they are together is at the tourney in Harrenhal. Which also follows the general train of thought.

It is possible to separate the 'looked to Stark' from Harrenhal, but only by postulating an unknown location and time where Ashara looked to someone and both Stark and Barristan were there to be looked to.

This is possible, but it is far more logical to go with what we actually know about - which sees Ashara Dayne, Starks and Barristan all in the same place and time at Harrnehal.

You are absolutely wrong about that, Selmy thinks Harrenhal was his chance to show her how he felt if he had won and been able to name her queen of beauty. He then muses would she have looked to me instead of Stark. It doesn't mean a choice was made there at all, it just means it was Barristan's last chance to express his feelings. Someone who is not sworn to celibacy and is free to go wherever he pleases can pursue her at any time and place.

[MtnLion]

Rather than think about possible motives the lady might have for sharing that story, think about what the author's motives might be for putting it into the book. There are a million things she could have told Theon if she wanted to test his loyalty...if that was what the author intended - which I doubt.

Why would Martin write a scene like that, only to drop the whole Theon/Lady Dustin interaction when Theon escapes Winterfell? I would argue that the whole scene was included only to inform us of Brandon's true character.

To buffalo those who have guessed some specifics about the end-game of the books.

[ishmael]

Not odd at all.

Wylla is nursing Jon when Ned returns to Winterfell. After ToJ-Starfall. Ned almost certainly called in on Robert on the way home and Robert happily jumped to conclusions when Ned is taking a bastard home. After all, it's the way Robert operates (humping whoever he can), with a bit of extra honour thrown in (looking after the babe and mother) to Ned-flavour it and it relieves Robert of that Ned -is-so-damned-perfectly-honourable-it-is-embarrassing problem he has.

Ned has just been to Starfall, so it makes sense to Robert that he went there to pick up his byblow.

For us it makes sense that Wylla is from Starfall because she was probably chosen as wetnurse for Lyanna by Arthur Dayne, in charge at ToJ after Rhaegar leaves and handily a Dayne with Starfall the nearest location. Not that Robert knows about that, nor would care about where Wylla has been or will be ever again.

I don't disagree with you about Wylla's wetnurse duties. I believe she was also at the TOJ. I find it amusing that Ned lets people believe that he had a bastard with someone named Wylla. Then when he returns from Starfall he places her right under their noses and none of them are any wiser. He claims he had a child with Wylla. As he travels home, "Oh, this is Jon's wetnurse Wylla." She then travels back to Starfall, and no one ever stops to think: Isn't it odd that Ned had a bastard with a Wylla and then was able to find a wetnurse named Wylla, too. My observation about it being odd had nothing really to do with the overall discussion we were having. It could be Martin's way of showing us just how dense Robert really was.

Ned doesn't say what the dishonour was, nor when.

In Ned's mind he is speaking of what he has to put his wife through, dishonouring her by bringing his bastard into her household, and himself by letting everyone believe Jon is his. But he knows Robert will understand it differently.

His belief of what the dishonor is could be one or more of several things. The problem is that Martin does not give us all of Ned's thoughts or memories. Giving it all to us would kill the a big portion of the story he is tryig to tell.

Ned also does not name Wylla as a woman he had relations with. Read it carefully. He names Wylla as 'that other woman' whose name Robert is trying to remember and Robert says Wylla is Jon's mother, not Ned. It is a subtle piece of lying without lying, but it is right there for you to read if you are a bit sharper than Robert.

I'm considerably sharper than Robert. I got that he let Robert jump to that conclusion. I miss stated my point there. In order for Robert to jump out on the limb we see here, they would have had to have had conversation in the past where Ned wold have had to

Go back and read it again. Ned was icily angry from the instant Catelyn mentioned Jon's mother and used that term himself. Ashara Dayne was entirely secondary and he never uttered the name himself.

And I believe you are completely wrong that they had ever discussed the matter before. You will need to provide a citation that they had ever talked about it before, and in fact I think if you check the part shortly before the usual angry, icy Ned quote you'll find that it was explicitly the first and only time Catelyn ever bought up the subject of Jon's mother.

I don't have the books with me, so I'll have to look at it. However, when I last read it, the question she asked was if Ashara was Jon's mother. It wasn't a general "who is Jon's mother" question, it was about a specific person. He follows up the "he is my blood" statement with "Now, I'll know where you heard that name." She recounts how all whispers of Ashara Dayne's name stopped after that. It was not the question about Jon that made him so angry, it was the question about both that angered him.

[inkasrain]

Page 547 American Hardback 3rd full paragraph (the first full paragraph is one line).It is fairly obvious that she is actually in the crypts for another reason, but is also feeling Theon out to see if there is anything left of who he used to be.

I'm really not getting that. Sounds like wistful musing to me.

Women will always know for sure whether a child is theirs, whereas men cannot ever have been sure until recently. Birth control changed the social dynamics by allowing women to control which lover could be the father, and even more importantly to avoid all children.

Right, I'm just saying that it's logical that the same importance of paternity seems to exist in Dorne, and therefore Ashara's giving birth to a bastard child wouldn't have been accepted in the way that the Sand Snakes are.

[Shea]

I just realized that Barristan was crushing on the young, fair Ashara when he was... 45+ years old. Ew...

[Aelinor Keath]

Exactly. How do we know Barbray Dustin is telling the truth? She could be a lying social climber with the same memory problem Sansa has about Sandor.

I think you're presupposing a lot here.

You're just basing a lot on Brandon based off very little, and potentially biased, information.

Sort of the same deal with Ned. I think a lot of the theories that suggest Ned was with Ashara suggest that he was willing to forego his honor out of love, which would be extremely consistent with his character.

[ARYa_Nym]

I just realized that Barristan was crushing on the young, fair Ashara when he was... 45+ years old. Ew...

Yeah a lot of people are going to be fire compared to him. I like Selmy though.