[ADWD SPOILERS] Ned, Brandon and Ashara

[Kadence]

Really? But all we had was one stylised line in the KotLT story and a reported suicide. We made the connections, not GRRM.

Hm? It is pretty much always us making the connections. Martin rarely spells things out for us. These connections like this are what make this series great. And Ned/Ashara being in love was actually about as spelled out as anything Martin does.

I don't think it is any less beautifully (and sparsely!) written just because it was deceptive, if accurate.

If it was Brandon not Ned, it goes from epic tragedy to just distasteful and ugly.

And yes, Ned at least appears to have had a crush on Ashara, and that doesn't change, so neither does the impact of ToJ scene. If anything, it is expanded now.

A crush doesn't really make for tragedy. An actual romance is far more meanginful and sad.

It is clear, now that we know to pay attention, that Ashara was hanging with an older and more powerful/promising 'set' than Ned at Harrenhal. Before, the other dance partners we were given told us nothing much (so why were they added), now they are a clue.

Not really. Firstly only Brandon is more promising, and politically he's out of Ashara's league in terms of marriage. Those partners are only a "clue" in retrospect, at the time it seemed like Ned standing out was the "clue" if anything. Saying this is a clue really sounds like people trying to force things. And again everything pointed to Ned+Ashara. There was nothing of Brandon+Ashara which is why no one talked about it. It was unsupported.

Further, we now have explanations that have characters acting within character. Ned is honourable, Brandon is not (Lady Dustin as evidence). Thus, a dishonourable action is more likely to come from Brandon.

Except up until this book there was no reason to believe Ned and Ashara ever had sex. The "dishonoring" only comes from after Martin seeming to possibly alter the story. There was never a need to assume Ned dishonored Ashara, just that they were in love but the war tore them apart.

One last point.

How much is it Martin's style to have a true, honest to goodness, romantic tragedy, with all the right (wrong) moves?

Or, to start with what appears to be a great romantic tragedy and deconstruct it into something a lot more sordid and messed up and REAL? Yet STILL tragic.

The original Ned/Ashara story is much tragic and heart-wrenching and emotionally impactful. This new version is much less so. And at heart Martin is a romantic - hence Lyanna/Rhaehgar. A well-intended romance leading to disaster is more Martin's style.

[Kadence]

Has anyone considered that the "dishonouring" could be... rape? What if a drunk Brandon Stark raped Ashara at Harrenhal? I know, the Starks are all the heroes and stuff and we don't want to think of them like that, but we don't really know a lot about Brandon Stark. The whole "dishonouring" part is throwing me off though.

If it was rape, why would she mourn him as Barristan said she mourned the father of her child?

I always felt that it was very contrived, personally. Such love, such tragedy and Ned never even thought about Ashara? Not one single time? And he never felt crushing guilt for what happened? Made him look like a callous jerk to me. IMHO, the Brandon thing fits much better.

Ned talked about the cost of the promise he kept. The lie leading to Ashara's broken heart and suicide would explain a lot of the pain he felt. Because the other costs seem mainly Cat-related, and while it hurt their relationship they still did OK, so it doesn't really seem like some tragic price. If the price Ned paid was Ashara's life (or if he thought she died, or asking her to go into hiding and leave her life behind), he'd be forever haunted.

Also if he did think about Ashara in GoT it would probably make the reader assume Ned+Ashara=Jon more strongly than Martin intended, Martin seems to have always intended to not give any particular mother for Jon a strong case. Ned rarely thinks about Rhaeghar either, he doesn't even think of Lyanna all that much until the ToJ scene. Ned's thoughts aren't evidence of much because much of them are hidden and not expanded on.

BTW we had one more hint re: Brandon - when Tywin said "Robb is his father's son" in the context of Robb breaking his Frey betrothal for another. It never made sense in the terms of Ned+Ashara, but now it does.

I don't understand this - can you please explain?

Lemore is too old to be her, IMHO and Ashara's violet eyes were her most arresting feature, which I don't see Tyrion not noticing/mentioning.

Lemore and Ashara actually seem to be of similar age. Also if Tyrion mentioned her eyes it would make it too obvious. Lemore as Ashara fits. Not sure if I like it, but it fits. There's also the theory that the "betrayal for love" Dany will suffer is Barristan leaving her for YG when he sees Lemore/Ashara. Dany probably trusts Barristan more than anyone she's ever trusted, so that would definitely sting her.

[Morrigan]

If it was rape, why would she mourn him as Barristan said she mourned the father of her child?

Hmm forgot about that. Nevermind then, not sure what Barristan means by dishonoring her though. Maybe he's just conservative. :P

[corbon]

Hm? It is pretty much always us making the connections. Martin rarely spells things out for us. These connections like this are what make this series great. And Ned/Ashara being in love was actually about as spelled out as anything Martin does.

'We' (me included) made a lot of connections from just two tiny facts, and rumours.

Shy Ned danced with Ashara at Brandon's request (to her).

Ashara suicided after/during Ned's visit to Starfall (which was always dodgy).

I totally fail to see anything spelled out by the facts.

What spelled it out for us was the same rumour from three sources - Starfall (Ned Dayne, courtesy of Allyria, Ashara's sister), Winterfell (various, including Catelyn, and Harlaw(?) telling Arya) and Cersei.

But with Martin we know that rumours aren't necessarily true, and when we look at the sources, none of them were involved. Furthermore, we could invent that same rumour ourselves if we put ourselves in their positions. After the war Ned disappears. He reappears at Starfall, leaving Starfall with a bastard son and Ashara suiciding. Plus maybe there were rumours of Ashara being dishonoured at Harrenhal, possibly by a Stark. 2+2 = N+A=J, but we already know that that is probably wrong.

When you look at it with a clear vision, not obscured by previous theory, you see that the miniscule 'facts' we had fit Brandon equally well as Ned - but there was no supporting evidence for Brandon so we did not look at him.

If it was Brandon not Ned, it goes from epic tragedy to just distasteful and ugly.

A crush doesn't really make for tragedy. An actual romance is far more meanginful and sad.

Does Martin do epic, classic, storybook plot-lines?

Or subvert them?

Is not the story of Ashara Dayne, who chose the 'bad boy' older brother over the good boy younger brother who loved her, but was dishonoured and abandoned by him, then has the brother who truly loved her be forced to kill her brother, both a true, more real, tragedy, and a subversion?

Not really. Firstly only Brandon is more promising, and politically he's out of Ashara's league in terms of marriage. Those partners are only a "clue" in retrospect, at the time it seemed like Ned standing out was the "clue" if anything. Saying this is a clue really sounds like people trying to force things. And again everything pointed to Ned+Ashara. There was nothing of Brandon+Ashara which is why no one talked about it. It was unsupported.

Its not forcing things, its re-examining the old evidence in light of the new.

The Daynes are one of the oldest and most honoured families in Westeros, with a unique lineage and history including the Sword of the Morning. Ashara is handmaid to the Crown Princess. Arthur is BFF to the Crown Prince. Ashara is very much in the league of the most eligible men in Westeros.

And yes, Ashara+Brandon was unsupported. No one talked about it. That is why we didn't consider it.

But now we have new information.

Information that says Ashara was dishonoured at Harrenhal.

Information that says Brandon, unlike what we know of Ned, was not above dishonouring a young noblewoman.

Information that says Barristan loved Ashara. Yet neither he nor Arthur seem to have any dislike or hold and rancor toward Ned.

NOW, Ashara + Brandon is supported. And with an alternate theory to Ned+Ashara, the weakness of N+A is exposed. It has little supporting data beyond rumour, and goes against character.

Except up until this book there was no reason to believe Ned and Ashara ever had sex. The "dishonoring" only comes from after Martin seeming to possibly alter the story. There was never a need to assume Ned dishonored Ashara, just that they were in love but the war tore them apart.

What is your point?

So we based a theory on what data we had. Then we got new data (GRRM filled in some more blanks, not 'altered the story').

That the 'new' theory was unnecessary and had very few pointers when we only had the 'old' information is entirely natural. It does not make the 'new theory' any less likely. THe fact is we did have some clues, but they were very sparse and easily missed when we had the great big screaming rumour which fitted most of the clues we had.

The point is, that there are new 'facts'. And the new 'facts' all point to Brandon, not Ned. And the old 'facts' also pointed to Brandon equally (or better with hindsight) than to Ned, though with the rumour throwing massive weight behind Ned, we didn't even notice that.

The original Ned/Ashara story is much tragic and heart-wrenching and emotionally impactful. This new version is much less so. And at heart Martin is a romantic - hence Lyanna/Rhaehgar. A well-intended romance leading to disaster is more Martin's style.

A well intended romance leading to a simple tragic end is story-book.

A mixed up romance with multilayered tragedy is much more Martin's style.

[Selmy]

I think it was Eddard that knocked up Ashara.

I think he had a crush on her, but knew they couldn't be together as he was a younger son.

She gets pregnant, returns to Starfall, and has a stillbirth.

Ned married Catelyn in place of his brother in the interim.

After the war Ned shows up at Starfall to tell his former love that he's married and has a bastard.

Ashara, overcome with grief by the loss of her baby, the idea that her love is married to another chick, and the idea that he had a baby with some tavern wench, takes a leap.

[corbon]

I think it was Eddard that knocked up Ashara.

I think he had a crush on her, but knew they couldn't be together as he was a younger son.

Being a younger son is not necessarily a barrier.

She gets pregnant, returns to Starfall, and has a stillbirth.

Ned married Catelyn in place of his brother in the interim.

Both these fit with either Ned or Brandon knocking up Ashara.

After the war Ned shows up at Starfall to tell his former love that he's married and has a bastard.

Ashara, overcome with grief by the loss of her baby, the idea that her love is married to another chick, and the idea that he had a baby with some tavern wench, takes a leap.

Assuming Ashara suicided at all...

Grief for her 'love being married to another' isn;t necessary to explain suicide anyway, its just cherry on the top.

Explain the following:

- Barristan, who loved Ashara, seems to respect and honour Ned Stark despite Ned being the man who dishonoured her at Harrenhal.

- Arthur Dayne seems sad to have to fight Ned Stark at ToJ despite Ned being the man who dishonoured his sister.

- A Stark dishonoured Ashara at Harrenhal. Brandon, with a track record of the same behaviour (Lady Dustin) is not involved but honourable Ned Stark is?

- Barristan's experience is that a young woman always chooses wildness (fire?) over stability (mud). His experience is basically Ashara at Harrenhal and Dany. So he is characterising Ned Stark as wild/firey?

[Akhôrahil]

I could see a Ned/Ashara/Brandon triangle. Brandon just wants to do the hottest girl in the realm, Ashara initially falls for him before she realizes he's a jerk. Eddard falls in love with her, and Ashara reciprocates, perhaps after Eddard comforts her (no, just comforts her - I don't think they ever got in bed).

If Eddard had slept with her, I'm pretty sure he would have brought up the prospect of marriage the morning after, and since he's the second son and she's a heiress (Arthur being in the KG), it would be a very good deal for House Stark, especially considering Rickard's Southern Strategy.

Now, there's something that bugs me about the suicide - it happened after Eddard got to Starfall, but what triggered it?

Brandon being dead? He'd been dead for months and months.

Eddard not being available any longer? Surely the news of his betrothal to Catelyn would have reached Starfall long ago?

The dead baby? But that was weeks ago or more, surely?

News of Arthur's death? That's a new piece of information, and sure, bad news, but is it really something to suicide over? Perhaps the straw that broke the camel's back, but...

[jxd]

Edric Dayne heard from his aunt that Ashara and Ned were in love. I think that is pretty conclusive, if someone knows, it'd be her sister

Ps, Ashara had an older brother - Edric's father, she wasn't an heiress. So I guess she and Ned are a match, not that I am an expert.

[Akhôrahil]

Ps, Ashara had an older brother - Edric's father, she wasn't an heiress. So I guess she and Ned are a match, not that I am an expert.

Thanks, my mistake. Still, he would want to marry her, and the Daynes might think it acceptable to have her marry a second son, especially since she was already 'soiled'.

[georgeforeman]

Clearly Ned and Ashara could've been married given that they loved eachother. What prevented that Brandon's death prior to his marriage to Cat, which necessitated Ned marrying her in his stead. That's part of this whole tragedy.

[Markus]

What Allyria Dayne thinks about Ned and Ashara has to be taken with caution. As she is betrothed and not yet married she might still be a girl/young woman, which would make her a very young child or even unborn at the time of Robert's Rebellion. If she acquired her knowledge about Ashara and Ned second-hand her sources may or may not have been well informed. We can't say for sure at this point.

People who think Selmy's thoughts about Ashara in particular and young girls in general are too ambiguous to conclude Ashara was involved with Brandon and not Ned will have to explain why Ned supposedly had sex with Ashara at Harrenhal but then didn't marry her. At the time he wasn't bound to anybody and the war probably didn't start for about a year yet and there shouldn't have been more than six months between Brandon storming to KL and the start of the war either. Which gave Ned several months to marry Ashara.

When one considers the respective personalities of Ned and Brandon it just makes much more sense for Brandon "never shy about taking what he wanted" Stark to have sex with Ashara and then not marrying her because he was already engaged than for Ned to dishonor Ashara. Look at what Ned's son, Robb, did when he had sex with an other unmarried maiden. He was even willing to break his word to the Freys and lose them because he refused to dishonor Jeyne. So why should we think Ned wouldn't marry Ashara after Harrenhal when he didn't even have to break of any prior engagements?

[variance]

Clearly Ned and Ashara could've been married given that they loved eachother. What prevented that Brandon's death prior to his marriage to Cat, which necessitated Ned marrying her in his stead. That's part of this whole tragedy.

Except the timeline doesn't fit. Brandon died a year after Harrenhal. That is three months after any birth. A long time for Ned to marry her.

[reiver]

Robb was king and not requiring permission from anyone to wed. Ned would have needed Rickard's approval, Ashara's father's approval maybe even an approval from the King since Ashara was Elia's Lady in waiting. Promises may have been made and events prevented them from being fulfilled.

So if, as you insist i have to explain why Ned didn't marry her i see the events going like this:

They hook up, make promises to wed and return to where they were so that agreements can be reached. Before Ashara finds out she's pregnant the whole Rhaegar thing blows up and Ned has no chance to find out until he actually reaches Starfall. This wouldn't be something widely publicised and maybe only Barristan knows through Arthur Dayne or guarding Elia and overhearing. Maybe even Arthur doesn't know the truth.

Ned goes north and calls the banners but when he sends ravens to Hoster Tully for support Hoster needs incentive. Ned finds himself in a situation not unlike Robb did at the twins, where he has to make a hard choice to ensure the success of the war effort. He's also put in a situation where he has two conflicting responsibilities. He chooses to do his duty as head of House Stark.

[variance]

Robb was king and not requiring permission from anyone to wed. Ned would have needed Rickard's approval, Ashara's father's approval maybe even an approval from the King since Ashara was Elia's Lady in waiting. Promises may have been made and events prevented them from being fulfilled.

So if, as you insist i have to explain why Ned didn't marry her i see the events going like this:

They hook up, make promises to wed and return to where they were so that agreements can be reached. Before Ashara finds out she's pregnant the whole Rhaegar thing blows up and Ned has no chance to find out until he actually reaches Starfall. This wouldn't be something widely publicised and maybe only Barristan knows through Arthur Dayne or guarding Elia and overhearing. Maybe even Arthur doesn't know the truth.

Ned goes north and calls the banners but when he sends ravens to Hoster Tully for support Hoster needs incentive. Ned finds himself in a situation not unlike Robb did at the twins, where he has to make a hard choice to ensure the success of the war effort. He's also put in a situation where he has two conflicting responsibilities. He chooses to do his duty as head of House Stark.

Jon Snow was born in 283 AL. Harrenhal happened in 281 AL. Timeline doesn't add up. For him to have been conceived at Harrenhal, he would have needed to have been born in 281 AL or 282 AL.

[Akhôrahil]

While I don't actually believe it (I think a straight-up R+L=J is far more likely), I think it's possible to construct a case for E+A=J and R+L=YG:

Brandon seduces Ashara at Harrenhal. No pregnancy. Ser Barristan notices.

Eddard and Ashara fall in love, Ashara pregnant. (Ser Barristan doesn't notice)

{Basic R+L stuff.}

Eddard comes to Starfall with Dawn and the son of R&L.

Ashara has birthed her son.

Wylla has a stillborn child. They've pretended it's Ashara's while the real child is hidden (it would be bad to have Ned's bastard known while the war was yet undecided).

Complication: Under this theory, the son of R&L is an obvious Targaryen from his looks. He won't be safe anywhere in Westeros.

Complication: Ashara isn't going to have a fun time in Westeros after this. Everyone thinks she's soiled, and she can't have the man she loves.

Solution (most likely not Eddard's - not his style): Eddard takes Jon (E+A) to raise him at Winterfell.

Solution: Ashara fakes a suicide, goes to Essos, and brings the son of R&L (the future Young Griff). Getting support for this from Illyrio shouldn't be a problem. Ashara might be Septa Lemore, or not.

Ridiculous result: 'Young Griff' isn't Aegon, but would still be the Targaryen heir if R&L were married.

Also: When Jon does the baby-swap at the wall, he's re-enacting something that happened when he was a baby. :blink:

Why it's not likely: It's ridiculously complicated.

Also: The timeline doesn't work if the conception happened at Harrenhall, right? There has to be a non-Harrenhal hook-up for the pregnancy?

Also: Why wouldn't Ashara bring her own son as well in this situation? Too much risk of discovery that her story doesn't make sense with two different babies?

Also: Ned wouldn't support actual treason, and smuggling away a Targ heir overseas to Targ supporters would be a bit much for him (in a way that secretely raising R+L=J wouldn't).

Also: They managed to keep all of this secret at Starfall? Really?!

Also: Why the secrecy about Jon? There would be no need to hide his parentage.

Also: Why no marriage - at least an attempt at it - between Eddard and Ashara?

Also: In all the Eddard chapters and fever dreams, this never comes up?!

[reiver]

Jon Snow was born in 283 AL. Harrenhal happened in 281 AL. Timeline doesn't add up. For him to have been conceived at Harrenhal, he would have needed to have been born in 282 AL.

Nothing in my post assumes N+A=J though (i don't buy that theory, R+L=J has my vote). I was replying to the post that was above me that said:

"People who think Selmy's thoughts about Ashara in particular and young girls in general are too ambiguous to conclude Ashara was involved with Brandon and not Ned will have to explain why Ned supposedly had sex with Ashara at Harrenhal but then didn't marry her."

[Mark3]

I completely agree that Ashara's story has a lot more emotional weight if it was Ned she loved. The man she loved on opposing sides of the war, being forced to kill her brother - that's tragic stuff. Getting seduced by a womanizer who was engaged to someone else at the time - not much there to waste tears over.

Also, the pre-ADWD clues in favor of Ashara/Ned are pretty hefty: they danced at Harrenhal. Ashara's sister thought they were in love. There are rumors all over Winterfell of Ned and Ashara being an item (Harwin and Catelyn have both heard them), Cersei has heard these same rumors. The Reeds certainly seem to think it was Ned/Ashara. Also, Ashara's suicide follows her final meeting with Ned, while Brandon had already been dead for well over a year. So if she killed herself in despair over Brandon (and his stillborn love child), she took her sweet time about it. The wording in Barristan's chapter certainly clouds the issue, but there is a lot more actual evidence in favor of Ned/Ashara.

It's also possible George may have changed his mind w/r/t what happened at Harrenhal. I hope not, but it's possible.

[Markus]

Robb was king and not requiring permission from anyone to wed. Ned would have needed Rickard's approval, Ashara's father's approval maybe even an approval from the King since Ashara was Elia's Lady in waiting. Promises may have been made and events prevented them from being fulfilled.

I seriously doubt the king had to be consulted. A match between a non-heir and the daughter of a relatively minor dornish House? That's not really the kind of alliance the king would need to be consulted about. And Ashara was Elia's Lady in waiting, not Rhaella's. So if anything Elia and Doran's mother may have had a say, but under the circumstances I don't see them refusing Ashara when she wanted it and was already pregnant.

As for Rickard and Ashara's father, I don't see why they wouldn't have agreed to a match. Olenna Tyrell states that Rickard had a reputation as an honorable man and the honorable thing would surely have been to let Ned marry Ashara after he had "damaged" her value and even gotten her pregnant. Ashara's father would likely have been very happy to marry Ashara into the Starks when she was already pregnant.

So when Ned and Ashara asked their parents to be allowed to marry at or directly after Harrenhal there would have been a lot of time for them to get married before the war started, before Brandon was murdered and even before the whole mess with Lyanna started when our understanding of the timeline of the war and Rhaegar's motives -- Harrenhal being at least a year before the war, Aegon being born only a few months before the war, and Rhaegar deciding to go after Lyanna only after Aegon's birth -- is near correct. More, since Ashara was pregnant all people involved would have wanted the marriage to happen as soon as possible.

We never heard anything about any plans for a marriage though. We also _never_ saw Ned thinking about Ashara, which is simply implausible if she was a woman whom he loved, who bore him a child, and who presumably committed suicide partly because he abandoned her. It just doesn't add up for Ned to have been involved with Ashara whereas it makes sense for Brandon to have been the "Stark" in question.

[Lost Time]

I have an issue with the argument of "he liked Ned so no way would he say he dishonored Ashara".

Ned is a real liked guy overall. Highly known for his honor. That doesn't stop the entire continent of Westeros -- from peasants to nobles to his wife -- gossiping about where he planted his dick during Robert's Rebellion to create Jon and dishonor himself. You can love/respect a guy but be displeased/call out that single dishonorable act he did during his life.

Anyways, I too have some questions involving timelines and potential Ned marriages before the Rebellion. According to Dustin, her father had hoped to marry Ned to her after Brandon's engagement was formally announced (which happens after Harrenhall), but she remarks how Catelyn Tully got him too so she was left with Lord Dustin. But she was married to this Lord Dustin "not half a year" (which means half a year) before Robert's Rebellion officially got underway.

I'm assuming that there was a decent amount of time between the Brandon/Catelyn announcement and his death within that year or two after Harrenhall. So the Catelyn marriage to Ned shouldn't have obstructed a Ned/Dustin marriage. So what were Rickard's plans for Ned? What did Ned expect himself?

[Mark3]

When one considers the respective personalities of Ned and Brandon it just makes much more sense for Brandon "never shy about taking what he wanted" Stark to have sex with Ashara and then not marrying her because he was already engaged than for Ned to dishonor Ashara. Look at what Ned's son, Robb, did when he had sex with an other unmarried maiden. He was even willing to break his word to the Freys and lose them because he refused to dishonor Jeyne. So why should we think Ned wouldn't marry Ashara after Harrenhal when he didn't even have to break of any prior engagements?

Ned might've had every intention of marrying her. But when war breaks out, and you find yourselves irrevocably on opposite sides (Ned is one of the leaders of the rebellion, and Dorne absolutely could not oppose the crown), a match becomes impossible. Throw in that Ned now had to marry Catelyn Tully to secure the Riverlands, and its doubly impossible.

Also, I posted Harwin's take on Ned/Ashara from STORM int eh other Ashara thread, but here it is:

"Aye, Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now. I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say. Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm inn that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

So that seems to indicate it would niot be a mark on Ned's honor if he had a tryst with Ashara at harrenhal.