[ADWD SPOILERS] Ned, Brandon and Ashara

[jxd]

The dishonor could be something relatively minor like Ned had a tryst with Ashara (similar to Rob and Jeyne), promised to marry her but then was compelled to marry Cat instead. The Daynes may not consider it a big deal, but Barristan might.

[reiver]

There was an awful lot we never saw Ned think about. George showed us as much as he wanted to. Almost all the POV characters know more or see more than we the readers are allowed to see. So i don't consider Ned not thinking about her to be particuarly meaningful.

Where is the source of Harrenhal being "at least a year before the war"? I'm not disagreeing with that assertion but i don't remember seeing it either. I've seen timelines but the books are so vague that i'm uncomfortable taking them as definitive unless there's some other sources they draw upon.

There's no evidence that there wasn't an attempt by either to marry or instigate a marriage (alhough that's the sort of thing Robert might have mentioned). Ashara's pregnancy may not have been known beyond two or three people and it probably wasn't going to be sent on a raven to Winterfell and the Eyrie. Certainly Cat never appeared to know of it since she suspected Jon was Ashara's son and a rumour of her being pregnant previously to Ned would have given her her suspicions, not the gossip of a winterfell servant.

There's too many 9deliberate) gaps in our knowledge and too many unreliable narrators in this story to be convincing either way. One thing is for sure though, absence of proof is not proof that it never happened.

[Lost Time]

The timeline is definitely not concrete especially when you start delving into months/weeks, but the Harrenhall tournament happened during the year of the False Spring, and GRRM mentions in this So Spake Martin segment that the Year of the false spring happened a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion.And this timeline faq goes into why it was probably at least a year before the Rebellion.

[Mark3]

Where is the source of Harrenhal being "at least a year before the war"?

I believe it comes from Jaime being 15 at Harrenhal and 17 when he slew Aerys.

ETA: I went back and confirmed this. Jaime is 15 when he joins the Kingsguard at Harrenhal. And according to Robert in AGOT he was "all of seventeen" when Ned found him stitting on the iron Throne over Aerys's corpse.

So that puts the Harrenhal tourney anywhere from 13 to 35 months before the sack of KL.

[Markus]

Ned might've had every intention of marrying her. But when war breaks out, and you find yourselves irrevocably on opposite sides (Ned is one of the leaders of the rebellion, and Dorne absolutely could not oppose the crown), a match becomes impossible. Throw in that Ned now had to marry Catelyn Tully to secure the Riverlands, and its doubly impossible.

The timeline doesn't support this scenario though. The year of the False Spring and thereby Harrenhal was a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion. Aegon was about a year old when KL was sacked which means he was born about three months before the war started.

If Rhaegar only went after Lyanna to father the third head of the dragon when he was told that Elia couldn't have a third child after the birth of Aegon then the trouble with Lyanna started less than three months before the war started. If Ashara became pregnant from being "dishonored" at Harrenhal by Ned her child would have been born before or at about the time the war started though. If Ned wanted to marry Ashara he had therefore plenty of time to do it if their respective parents didn't disallow it, and it's quite clear that any marriage should have been before a bastard was born.

Also, I posted Harwin's take on Ned/Ashara from STORM int eh other Ashara thread, but here it is: ... So that seems to indicate it would niot be a mark on Ned's honor if he had a tryst with Ashara at harrenhal.

Note that Harwin states that he doubts the truth of the rumors of Ned and Ashara.

Harwin's standard of honour may also be quite different from Ned's. He doesn't say anything about what would be honorable if a child was involved either. And one may doubt that Harwin was inclined to speak badly of Ned to Ned's daughter in any case.

[sphealey]

The timeline is definitely not concrete especially when you start delving into months/weeks, but the Harrenhall tournament happened during the year of the False Spring, and GRRM mentions in this So Spake Martin segment that the Year of the false spring happened a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion.And this timeline faq goes into why it was probably at least a year before the Rebellion.

One has to factor in "raven transit time" as well, however. Smart as the ravens may be they don't fly supersonically [1]; I would guess it would take at least two weeks in each direction counting a transfer at some intermediate point (the Winterfell rookery probably not being stocked up with Starfall ravens). Two or three exchanges of letters, plus time for analysis, sounding out key bannermen (more raven time), etc could easily take 4-6 months.

sPh

[1] Pity; we could use a raven like that.

[Markus]

You can love/respect a guy but be displeased/call out that single dishonorable act he did during his life.

That's true enough. However, Ned wouldn't have dishonored anybody. He would have dishonored the woman Selmy was in love with. The woman who killed herself for the child she lost -- fathered by Ned in this scenario -- and for the man who had dishonored her by refusing to marry her.

So the Catelyn marriage to Ned shouldn't have obstructed a Ned/Dustin marriage. So what were Rickard's plans for Ned? What did Ned expect himself?

Ned may not have expected anything in particular at this point. But you raise an interesting point with regard to Rickard's plans. He must have refused Lord Ryswell or Ryswell wouldn't have married his daughter to Lord Dustin. Perhaps Rickard had southron ambitions for Ned too? Tywin would probably have preferred to marry Cersei to some heir not a second son. But Arianne was already born so may have been a suitable candidate down the line in Rickard's mind.

[Mark3]

Note that Harwin states that he doubts the truth of the rumors of Ned and Ashara.

He says that, but he is talking to Arya, who does not want to believe it's true. He's trying to soften the blow, by saying, "Well I don't think it's true, but even if it is, so what?"

The timeline doesn't support this scenario though. The year of the False Spring and thereby Harrenhal was a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion. Aegon was about a year old when KL was sacked which means he was born about three months before the war started.

IMO, the timeline of False Spring/Robert's Rebellion is too vague to support or deny any of these scenarios, really. FWIW, it seems to me like it makes the Brandon/Ashara thing even less likely than Ned/Ashara though. But we just do not have enough detail on the chronology to make definitive statements.

[Markus]

There was an awful lot we never saw Ned think about. George showed us as much as he wanted to. Almost all the POV characters know more or see more than we the readers are allowed to see. So i don't consider Ned not thinking about her to be particuarly meaningful.

But there are points where GRRM probably _should_ have let Ned think about Ashara if he was in love with her, fathered a child with her, was denied a chance to marry her and if she died for all of this.

We're in Ned's head when Cersei brings up Ashara. But there is _nothing_ about Ashara in Ned's thoughts. We're also in Ned's head when he wonders about men being filled with lusts and fathering bastards. Again, nothing about Ashara and his dead child.

I'm left with the impression that Ned is either great at suppressing memories and feelings or that his involvement with Ashara was much more slight than some readers believe. And Ned isn't really all that great at suppressing his memories of another thing if you will recall: Promise me, Ned.

[reiver]

The timeline is definitely not concrete especially when you start delving into months/weeks, but the Harrenhall tournament happened during the year of the False Spring, and GRRM mentions in this So Spake Martin segment that the Year of the false spring happened a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion.And this timeline faq goes into why it was probably at least a year before the Rebellion.

Thanks for the links. Interesting reading and better than what i'd found on google.

The timeline doesn't support this scenario though. The year of the False Spring and thereby Harrenhal was a year or two before the start of Robert's Rebellion. Aegon was about a year old when KL was sacked which means he was born about three months before the war started.

If Rhaegar only went after Lyanna to father the third head of the dragon when he was told that Elia couldn't have a third child after the birth of Aegon then the trouble with Lyanna started less than three months before the war started. If Ashara became pregnant from being "dishonored" at Harrenhal by Ned her child would have been born before or at about the time the war started though. If Ned wanted to marry Ashara he had therefore plenty of time to do it if their respective parents didn't disallow it, and it's quite clear that any marriage should have been before a bastard was born.

The problem with this timeline is it makes the Brandon one seem just as unlikely as it pushes the death of her child and Brandon over a year away from her "suicide". Why would Barristan think stuff that happened over a year before her death caused her suicide at that point? Also with this timeline Brandon's death wouldn't have been such a loss for her in some ways as she'd have known for almost certain that she was never going to have anything to do with him since he was marrying Cat (since this is pre-war i'm imagining news travels better).

If Ned promised to marry Ashara when they were both 20 or when Ned had finished his fostering at the eyrie and become a man then them not being married yet is not too improbable. He didn't have to know about the baby as it's not something that would be broadcast or sent by raven.

But there are points where GRRM probably _should_ have let Ned think about Ashara if he was in love with her, fathered a child with her, was denied a chance to marry her and if she died for all of this.

We're in Ned's head when Cersei brings up Ashara. But there is _nothing_ about Ashara in Ned's thoughts. We're also in Ned's head when he wonders about men being filled with lusts and fathering bastards. Again, nothing about Ashara and his dead child.

I'm left with the impression that Ned is either great at suppressing memories and feelings or that his involvement with Ashara was much more slight than some readers believe. And Ned isn't really all that great at suppressing his memories of another thing if you will recall: Promise me, Ned.

Agreed. There's definitely points where it would have been logical for him to think certain things but his thoughts are deliberately cryptic elsewhere (especially around Lyanna) that i think we have to accept it as a writers conceit to make a better story and not kill the mystery.

When talking about fathering bastards it would've been logical for him to think "like the one i pretended to father" or "like the one my brother fathered on Ashara Dayne. A girl, stillborn" or similar. Just like he never though "oh, Ashara Dayne, that girl i only danced with and my brother bonked. Everyone seems to think it was me though". This sort of thing is too slippery to know the difference between natural exclusion due to him just not having a reaction or exclusion by the writer to keep the mystery. Either way it's shaky ground to support an argument.

[wallofice]

I'm left with the impression that Ned is either great at suppressing memories and feelings or that his involvement with Ashara was much more slight than some readers believe. And Ned isn't really all that great at suppressing his memories of another thing if you will recall: Promise me, Ned.

This was my thought exactly. We've gotten several hints about the Lyanna situation from Ned's mind, so it would make sense to get one or two about Ashara. Even looking at Jon should have reminded Ned of his own dead bastard baby at least once. And obviously he wouldn't be explicit about it, but there couldn't have been something to hang the theory on.

I never thought Ned and Ashara made sense given his character, so for me the Brandon theory is a relief. I can understand how other who did think the evidence was compelling could now feel gypped over the new information that's been presented, but I don't think we can actually say that Martin changed the original story or anything.

Now, as far as Ashara's suicide (or "suicide") goes, I have to think it's a straw that broke the camel's back situation if it's true. She's been dishonored by Brandon, then she has a child but it's stillborn, and then her brother is killed? Yikes.

BUT the fact that the Dornish are Targaryen loyalists does make it possible in my mind for her to have escaped with baby Aegon in order to smuggle him out. She had nothing else to lose, after all.

[Markus]

IMO, the timeline of False Spring/Robert's Rebellion is too vague to support or deny any of these scenarios, really. FWIW, it seems to me like it makes the Brandon/Ashara thing even less likely than Ned/Ashara though. But we just do not have enough detail on the chronology to make definitive statements.

I'm not trying to make definitive statements. But if the timeline as we understand it now is correct -- even taking some vagueness into account -- then there was more than enough time and opportunity for Ned and Ashara to arrange a marriage and marry before their child was born, not least because the trouble with Lyanna probably started at about the time the baby was born or after.

Frankly, I fail to see how an approximate nine month period or even more wasn't enough for Ned and Ashara to marry when that's what Ned and Ashara wanted to do. The most plausible explanation for this is that it wasn't Ned who was involved with Ashara but Brandon, who of course couldn't marry Ashara because he was already betrothed to Cat. This scenario makes an awful lot of sense to me, in particular when one considers Selmy's thoughts about Ashara in particular and young girls in general -- who always prefer fire over mud -- and what we learn about Brandon in ADwD.

The only thing this scenario really has to explain is why some people believe(d) Ned was involved with Ashara. But this can be explained by deliberate subterfuge to protect Jon or rumor born of simple misunderstandings.

[Lost Time]

But there are points where GRRM probably _should_ have let Ned think about Ashara if he was in love with her, fathered a child with her, was denied a chance to marry her and if she died for all of this.

We're in Ned's head when Cersei brings up Ashara. But there is _nothing_ about Ashara in Ned's thoughts. We're also in Ned's head when he wonders about men being filled with lusts and fathering bastards. Again, nothing about Ashara and his dead child.

I'm left with the impression that Ned is either great at suppressing memories and feelings or that his involvement with Ashara was much more slight than some readers believe. And Ned isn't really all that great at suppressing his memories of another thing if you will recall: Promise me, Ned.

Well not all memories are created equal. He's recalling his sister's last dying wish, and even then he stops short of what this wish actually was (of course for literature purposes).

[Mark3]

I'm not trying to make definitive statements. But if the timeline as we understand it now is correct -- even taking some vagueness into account -- then there was more than enough time and opportunity for Ned and Ashara to arrange a marriage and marry before their child was born, not least because the trouble with Lyanna probably started at about the time the baby was born or after.

Well, that all depends on how long after Harrenhal Brandon is arrested - it may have been a matter of a couple months. AndiIt had to be some time after Harrenhal before Ashara even knew she pregnant (and that's assuming it was there that she conceived), and Ned and Ashara would have been a long way away from each other.

To be honest, there's something strange about the whole Ashara stillbirth thing. It's odd that we've only just heard that she was even pregnant in the first place - and Barristan seems to be the only one that's heard? Very weird. It seems to me the pregnancy had to have been kept hush-hush, and it's possible Ned himself never even know about it.

[Markus]

The problem with this timeline is it makes the Brandon one seem just as unlikely as it pushes the death of her child and Brandon over a year away from her "suicide". Why would Barristan think stuff that happened over a year before her death caused her suicide at that point? Also with this timeline Brandon's death wouldn't have been such a loss for her in some ways as she'd have known for almost certain that she was never going to have anything to do with him since he was marrying Cat (since this is pre-war i'm imagining news travels better).

When we suppose that Brandon died before the start of the war, the start being Jon Arryn refusing an order to hand over Ned and Robert and calling his banners, or Arryn's attack on Gulltown, then there can be no doubt that Brandon died more than a year before Ned came to Starfall. It explicitly says in AGoT that the war had lasted close to a year when KL was sacked, which probably was a few months before Ned came to Starfall.

Ashara knowing about Brandon's death for some time wouldn't be much different from her knowing about Ned's marriage to Cat, besides. Ned married Cat some few months into the war, long before he came to Starfall. And the death of Ashara's child, the principal reason for Ashara's suicide in Selmy's mind also happened more than a year before it if the child was conceived at Harrenhal. So either Selmy didn't give enough weight to the death of Ashara's brother or he assumed that it wasn't a sudden decision but a depression started by the loss of her child and Brandon culminating in an eventual suicide. Or Selmy is wrong altogether and Ashara never died in the first place.

In any case, I don't see Ned's marriage to Cat being some months closer to her suicide than Brandon's death as compelling evidence against Brandon as the father when the death of the child was probably before Brandon's death and the suicide was nearly a year or more after all these events.

If Ned promised to marry Ashara when they were both 20 or when Ned had finished his fostering at the eyrie and become a man then them not being married yet is not too improbable. He didn't have to know about the baby as it's not something that would be broadcast or sent by raven.

Ned was already legally a man -- he was 18 at Harrenhal -- and had ended his official fostering at the Eyrie. If he had sex with Ashara at Harrenhal I don't see why he wouldn't have tried to make an "honest woman" of her as soon as possible. And I can well see Ashara trying to inform Ned about her being pregnant when she has hopes of a marriage being possible before their child is born a bastard. Letters can be sealed. A pregnancy will be seen eventually anyway. And a child will have to be explained too. So it would have been the prudent course to inform Ned that they shouldn't wait because of Ashara already being pregnant.

Either way it's shaky ground to support an argument.

The argument for Brandon and against Ned as Ashara's love interest doesn't really rely upon it being not very plausible for Ned never to think about Ashara if he were the one. There are plenty of other points which speak for Brandon and against Ned. And while one may perhaps debate where exactly Ned should have thought about Asahara, I would maintain that he should have thought about her at least once in AGoT, in particular compared to the many hints we're given about Jon and Lyanna. GRRM just isn't as circumspect about Ned's demons as some would like to believe it seems to me.

[Mark3]

Ashara knowing about Brandon's death for some time wouldn't be much different from her knowing about Ned's marriage to Cat, besides.

You don't think so? There's a lot of difference between the guy you love being forced into a political marriage with another woman (happens all the time) and being horrifically tortured to death (that would be worse). The latter would be more akin to say...the man you loved bringing you your dead brother's sword after having just killed him.

Ned was already legally a man -- he was 18 at Harrenhal -- and had ended his official fostering at the Eyrie. If he had sex with Ashara at Harrenhal I don't see why he wouldn't have tried to make an "honest woman" of her as soon as possible.

Regardless of how much he wants to protect her honor, Ned would still need permission from his father and the Lord of Starfall. It's not a Robb situation where is King and can marry her on the spot. That permission may or may not have been in the works when all the trouble breaks out following Lyanna's disappearance.

And while one may perhaps debate where exactly Ned should have thought about Asahara, I would maintain that he should have thought about her at least once in AGoT, in particular compared to the many hints we're given about Jon and Lyanna. GRRM just isn't as circumspect about Ned's demons as some would like to believe it seems to me.

Well, he doesn't think about the horrific deaths of his father and brother, either - even when Robert brings up that what happened to them was "unthinkable." There are traumas that he reflects on, and traumas he does not over the course of AGoT.

[Markus]

Well, that all depends on how long after Harrenhal Brandon is arrested - it may have been a matter of a couple months.

Brandon wouldn't have been arrested before Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna. And we've reason to suspect that Rhaegar didn't kidnap Lyanna before Aegon was born, before he was told that Elia couldn't give him a third child, which he probably believed was necessary to have a third head of the dragon (see Dany's vision of Rhaegar, Elia and Aegon in the House of the Undying in ACoK). And we know that Aegon was a year old at the Sack of KL. Which means he was born close to three months before the start of the war. A war which was a year or two after Harrenhal. So it doesn't seem very likely to me that Brandon was arrested only a couple months after Harrenhal.

AndiIt had to be some time after Harrenhal before Ashara even knew she pregnant (and that's assuming it was there that she conceived), and Ned and Ashara would have been a long way away from each other.

Ashara was Elia's lady in waiting in KL where there are plenty of fast ravens. So I'm sure she had an opportunity to reach Ned within weeks at most. Besides, if Robb is any guide Ned wouldn't have waited for Ashara becoming pregnant before he felt compelled to marry her if he would have had sex with her at Harrenhal, and so he probably would already have asked his father's permission to marry her as soon as he could.

To be honest, there's something strange about the whole Ashara stillbirth thing. It's odd that we've only just heard that she was even pregnant in the first place - and Barristan seems to be the only one that's heard? Very weird. It seems to me the pregnancy had to have been kept hush-hush, and it's possible Ned himself never even know about it.

If Brandon was the father and Ashara knew there was no hope of Brandon marrying her I can well see why Ned wouldn't have been informed about a baby by Ashara until she met him again after the war. In any case, I certainly agree that there is a lot of room left to speculate about Ashara's role in events and even her fate: her lover and baby and its fate, her moving around during Robert's Rebellion, her (possible) connection to Jon, Lyanna and Wylla at the Tower of Joy and/or Starfall, her alleged suicide and her reasons for it and her body never been found. There are so many unanswered questioned she is connected to that one might suspect that the best way to resolve them is to let Ashara answer them herself.

[Mark3]

Also, another thing occurs to me...if we're going with the "Brandon was a womanizing jerk" theory, why do we have exactly zero mentions of any of Brandon's bastards? Surely there were a few floating around if he was fertile enough to father a child and caddish enough to go around deflowering half the realm. Wouldn't Ned have noted any of them? He cares about Robert's bastards but not Brandon's? Wouldn't such bastards be at least of SOME political significance considering what is happening to the Stark line and the turmoil in the North?

[Markus]

You don't think so? There's a lot of difference between the guy you love being forced into a political marriage with another woman (happens all the time) and being horrifically tortured to death (that would be worse). The latter would be more akin to say...the man you loved bringing you your dead brother's sword after having just killed him.

I was addressing the timing of the events, not their content. I agree that your lover being tortured to death can well be seen as more horrible than him having to marry somebody else for political reasons. Which might be an argument for Brandon's death being the more likely source for Ashara's suicide in Selmy's mind than Ned marrying Cat.

Well, he doesn't think about the horrific deaths of his father and brother, either - even when Robert brings up that what happened to them was "unthinkable." There are traumas that he reflects on, and traumas he does not over the course of AGoT.

Ned had no personal memories of what happened to Brandon and his father. He had nothing immediate to do with what happened to them either. Ashara's case is very different. What happened to her and her child would be all about what he did to her.

[Markus]

Also, another thing occurs to me...if we're going with the "Brandon was a womanizing jerk" theory, why do we have exactly zero mentions of any of Brandon's bastards? Surely there were a few floating around if he was fertile enough to father a child and caddish enough to go around deflowering half the realm. Wouldn't Ned have noted any of them? He cares about Robert's bastards but not Brandon's? Wouldn't such bastards be at least of SOME political significance considering what is happening to the Stark line and the turmoil in the North

Who says Brandon deflowered half the realm? You exaggerate. In fact, we've yet to hear if Brandon was even promiscuous. What's suggested in the text is merely that Brandon was the sort of guy who would sleep with noble girls and then not marry them.

Moreover, Brandon was just 20 years old when he died. One bastard with Ashara doesn't seem too low I would say when he was particular about the quality of his conquests.