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[aDwD spoilers] Revisiting Rhaegar


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I really don't buy this one. Even if we assume that Elia believed in the prophecy of TPTWP, and then if we also assume she held Oberyn's type of views on sexuality rather than Doran's or Quentyn's, why would she not demand that Rhaegar take a woman of low birth?

I believe this is because of the prophecy stating something about "a song of ice and fire". Ice = Stark, Fire = Targaryen.

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Why would being a great fighter mean you aren't worthy of hate? Even before becoming fat Robert was still basically a deadbeat dad and absentee father a million times over - "he was always there to catch me, until one day he wasn't". He might have even looked the other way when Cersei killed his kids at Casterly Rock. He was a not a good person at all. Fun to hang out with sure, guy who'd want on your side in a fight sure. A respectable person or father, not even close.

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As far as I remember, he had only fathered one bastard, in the Vale, at the time of the Rebellion. Eighteen in all. If I was married to Cersei, I'd be looking elsewhere too. He wasn't a deadbeat, he was a man's man in a very masculine world. Drinking and whoring are not things which are looked upon unfavourably in this world. I accept that he was not a good King after Greyjoy's rebellion, but I think that the way he appears in A Game of Thrones is misleading in terms of how he was before. Stannis, for example, discusses how much everyone loved Robert, would fight and die for him and his charisma. Not a million miles away from some of the things said about Rhaegar. Remember, even Barristan, who had a tremendous amount of respect for Rhaegar, took Robert's pardon because of Robert's chivalrous nature and martial prowess. I think the thing is, Rhaegar and Robert are supposed to have parallels, two men who both might be king, and who are both tragically flawed. Robert thinks Rhaegar died at the Trident but still won, because ultimately, Rhaegar got Lyanna and Robert got Cersei. It's a tragic story, and part of the reason why the backstory is so emotionally fraught.

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Why would being a great fighter mean you aren't worthy of hate? Even before becoming fat Robert was still basically a deadbeat dad and absentee father a million times over - "he was always there to catch me, until one day he wasn't". He might have even looked the other way when Cersei killed his kids at Casterly Rock. He was a not a good person at all. Fun to hang out with sure, guy who'd want on your side in a fight sure. A respectable person or father, not even close.

As opposed to a man that leaves his wife and children at the palace with his known to be crazy father and runs off with another woman? Or a man who publicly humiliates his wife in front of half the realm and goes after his cousin's fiance. Why is what Robert did worthy of hate, but not what Rhaegar did? Just because Rhaegar wasn't drunk when he was doing those things doesn't make his actions any better.

Ned, Barristan Selmy, Kevan Lannister and the Reed kids all noted the crowning of Lyanna at the tournament as the event that sparked the war. Both Barristan and Lannister said that, if he had made a different choice, it would have saved them a lot of sorrow. So, him crowning her was seen to be an insult to his wife. Maybe it wouldn't have been in medieval Europe but, in Westeros, it was. His actions are what lead to the war. Even people who admired him said that.

Also, I don't buy that he didn't know the consequences of taking Lyanna. Abducting/imprisoning family members of great houses always seems to lead to war in this series. We saw it with both Tyrion and Ned. War was expected after both events, so if Rhaegar didn't expect war after abducting the daughter of the Warden of the North, then he is an idiot.

Rhaegar made idiotic mistakes just as Robert did. The one thing you can say about Robert is that he kept the people out of war.

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But here are some basic background facts (as we known them at least), and some associated unknowns or possibilities for you all.

Fact 1: Rhaegar was a bookish lad who changed his life based on something he read, presumably a prophecy.

Fact 2: This isn't our world and prophecies can have real, critical importance.

Unknown 3: We don't know how prophecy and events and causation flows. At all. At the very least, the characters in the story know as well as us, and quite possibly better.

Fact 4: Rhaegar is seen in a vision by Dany with his family saying "there must be one more", whch we take to mean three heads of the dragon and thus three kids for Rhaegar.

Fact 5: Elia has been diagnosed as unable to, or too risky to have further children.

Fact 6: Targaryens have a dynastic history of polygamy, and not just within their own house. If Rhaegar wants a second wife, there is nothing to stop him legally doing so, that we are aware of. And it's not a massive insult to Dorne - they still have their blood as heir, nor Stark - they get a better marriage than Baratheon, and probably compensation to boot, for their honour.

Probability 7.1: Lyanna was the KotLT.

Probability 7.2: Rhaegar found out.

Fact 7: When Rhaegar gave the Crown of Love and Beauty to Lyanna 'all the smiles died'.

Fact 8: We don't know why the smiles died and there must have been many different reasons.

Probability 8.1: The only likely unified reason would be shock at the unexpectedness of it. Which still could be because of many different reasons.

Fact 9: It wasn't a 'nice' thing to do to Elia.

Unknown 9.1: But he may have had fair reasons and we don't know how 'bad' it was or what she really thought.

Probability 9.2: It was a bad move rather than a good one, but not as bad as people make out. It's not such a massive insult as all that!

Fact 10: Rhaegar was not getting on well with Aerys, who mistrusted him due to increasing paranoia and not delivering the KotLT up for punishment.

Fact 11: Rhaegar and Lyanna disappeared together

Probability/possibility 10.1: They were hiding from both their families. Lyanna's because she was breaking a betrothal, Rhaegar's because he distrusted Aerys' reaction to Lyanna/eloping.

Fact 11.2: Hiding removed nearly all of the more violent response options available. No Military attacks to recover Lyanna, no daring 'rescues', no personal duels to the death. Unfortunately rash and stupid public treason and paranoia jumping to outright insanity were not ruled out.

Fact 12: Brandon reacted irresponsibly and treasonously and rode to KL (against advice) and demanded Rhaegar come out and die.

Fact 13: We don't know how Brandon got the news, or what news he got.

Unknown 13.1 We don't know what efforts Lyanna and Rheagar made to tell people, what they told them if they made efforts, nor if any of those efforts were successful.

Possibility 13.1.1 Rickard and/or Aerys might well have gotten messages from R+L, we can't tell. Or maybe they didn't.

Possibility 13.1.2 Even Brandon may have gotten a message and simply reacted to the insult to family honour (betrothal breaking)

Possibility 13.1.3 There was a message and it was tampered with or not delivered.

Possibility 13.1.3.1 Young Littlefinger was in the vicinity, having just left Riverrun after recovering from his duel with Brandon. He could easily have encountered them, volunteered to take a message to the families, them thrown the message away and told Brandon about having seen an abduction. Or something similar. Pure speculation without evidence, but I love this little theory and can't resist throwing it in there.

Possibility 13.1.4 R+L made no efforts to tell anyone. Not wise.

Fact 14: Rhaegar and Lyanna were not there (at KL) (almost certainly travelling to ToJ) and no one at KL knew (or admitted to knowing) where they were.

Fact 15: Rickard reacted calmly and came south to deal calmly with Aerys over Brandon (and maybe R+L).

Fact 16: Aerys did his nut and war started.

Fact 17: By this stage there was nothing Rhaegar could do.

Probability 17.1: In fact, if he'd started back north straight after reaching ToJ he may still have been too late. TOJ is almost as far south of KL as Winterfell is north, and word KL -> Winterfell can be by raven.

Fact 18: Removing the king is treason. Even by the crown prince.

Fact 19: Nobody took the rebellion seriously until he Battle of the Bells. Robert was slapped down by Mace Tyrells van initially.

Fact 20: The Others are rising and Winter is Coming. It appears the prophecy might have been necessary after all, even if Rhaegar didn't get the interpretation right.

Probability 20.1: What Rhaegar did was clearly aimed at preparing the realm for the external threat of the Others. Whereas the Lannisters, Tyrells, Baratheons, Greyjoys, Boltons, Freys, ... even Starks, were only interested in fighting over the scraps, Stannis aside.

Some of these facts are actually assumptions. If Rhaegar's actions aren't insulting to House Stark, then why did the Starks and Baratheons feel insulted? (We have no way of knowing how the Martells initially reacted, so I won't mention them.) There is no evidence in the text that Rhaegar proposed marriage to Lyanna Stark and there is no evidence in the text that Lord Rickard Stark would have approved of his daughter being a second wife. You've assumed all of this based on a threadbare precedent of polygamous marriage which the Targaryens hardly used after Aegon and his sisters joined the Faith of Seven. It's possible to assume that the Seven don't condone polygamous marriage, because you don't see any tradition of that in Westeros.

So you're assuming (and calling it "Fact") that the Targaryens' bannermen are okay with the Targaryen custom of polygamous marriage, when we have no evidence of that. The Starks hold to the old gods and, while the old gods have no rules, there's clearly no evidence of second and third wives among the major northern families. And all of this is assuming that Rhaegar actually had the intention to marry Lyanna Stark and made those intentions clear, which he didn't. Even if he wanted to marry her, he's breaking her betrothal to Robert Baratheon and abducting her/eloping with her without her father's consent. This is a reckless, irresponsible action that is guaranteed to piss off powerful people.

You're also stating your opinion about Brandon and calling it fact:

Fact 12: Brandon reacted irresponsibly and treasonously and rode to KL (against advice) and demanded Rhaegar come out and die.

Fact 13: We don't know how Brandon got the news, or what news he got.

You've admitted yourself that we don't know what news Brandon is reacting to, so in that case, how can we judge his reaction? I actually agree that Brandon was reckless, but he was in the right. Since we don't know the details of the abduction or whether Rhaegar and Lyanna tried to spread word about what they were doing, let's not assume that they might have. No character seems to think it was anything other than a romantic affair or an abduction, and even Barristan - who would be in the know, if there was something else behind it - doesn't excuse Rhaegar for what he did.

Rickard Stark's reaction is even murkier, since like you said, we don't know what he knew, what messages he received, or what he was doing and planning. He does not seem to have realized that his son was in mortal danger, however, since if he had I think it more likely that he would have answered the king's summons by turning up with an army...but this is all conjecture.

Let me clarify what I've been saying about Rhaegar. I do think he might have had noble intentions, but I fail to see any evidence that he tried to make these intentions known, or even palatable, to all parties involved (besides Elia and Lyanna). I disagree with the decision to publicly crown Lyanna, to run away with her, to hide in the Tower of Joy (if that's what they did) and to do all of these things in belief that there will be no unpleasant consequences. Everything that has been put forward as evidence that these were not bad decisions are conjecture with weak evidence in the text.

Remember that the textual evidence for Ned and Ashara seemed pretty strong, until ADWD came along and it suddenly appeared that the evidence seems to suggest Brandon and Ashara instead. This is another reason why I'm not convinced that the text supports Rhaegar's actions and decisions...though if GRRM explains everything in the 6th book and 7th book and proves me wrong, THEN I might accept it.

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Perhaps I came across too harsh on the OP, though I would not go so far as to call it "Rhaegar hating", insofar as I don't actually hate characters in a book. Rhaegar, to me, shows a sense of entitlement and selfeshness, and his actions appear ill-conceived at best. Perhaps my "Rhaegar hate" is borne from all of the "Rhaegar love" that seems to be going around. All we have at this point is rumor and conjecture, and can only assume what he was really like, though as I said in the OP, I think there are clues.

We have a few random thoughts or words. From Griff (who is supposedly in love with Rhaegar) "your lands are beautiful" maybe that was well intended, just comes across as bland and impersonal to me (I could easily be wrong) and Rhaegar is conspicously absent when this great friend is exiled for failing Rhaegar, whereas I tend to think Rhaegar failed him. Jorah, who fought against Rhaegar, speaks highly of him to the woman he loves who happens to be Rhaegar's sister. Selmy's rememberance doesn't exactly drip praise. Ned's lone thought of the man I think is purposefully misleading, again I could be wrong. Cersei saying the commonfolk cheered him, yet they've cheered Loras and Tywin as well, so there you go.

With the prophesy aspect, a lot of horrible and ignorant things have been done because of religion and trying to force prophesy. Rhaegar is supposedly some introverted scholar, he doesn't know this? Prophecy, from my understanding, is a viewing of the future, no amount of trying to start it or stop it will help, it has already been seen. Perhaps he did exactly what his viewing showed, if so then I am dead wrong. But I am not so sure how far prophecy can be trusted within aSoIaF anyway.

Mostly everything regarding Rhaegar is speculation. My gut feeling is that he was not an upstanding guy. My belief is that he thought that the people existed to provide him with position, whereas truly his position existed to provide for his people (I heard that somewhere, and I think it applies). In that vein, why was it any harder for Ned to stand up to a man he loved closer than any brother (after he saw the dead direwolf with the stag's antler and all that it implied) then it would be for Rhaegar to stand up to Aerys. Or Davos to Stannis. If he was such a great guy, then he would have been willing to risk his life for the lives of innocents. Or for what was right. Ned risked his life for the children of the man who tried to murder his son, Davos risk his life for a bastard kid. I can not see Rhaegar doing this. I just don't understand why Rhaegar gets a pass on his transgressions, if that is "Rhaegar hate" then so be it.

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Ned, Barristan Selmy, Kevan Lannister and the Reed kids all noted the crowning of Lyanna at the tournament as the event that sparked the war. Both Barristan and Lannister said that, if he had made a different choice, it would have saved them a lot of sorrow. So, him crowning her was seen to be an insult to his wife. Maybe it wouldn't have been in medieval Europe but, in Westeros, it was. His actions are what lead to the war. Even people who admired him said that.

But I think they're meaning that not as "The crowning actually caused the war" but more like "If only we'd seen the whole mess coming when this happened." In hindsight, you can see the chain of cause and effect starting there and snowballing, but if he had just crowned Lyanna and then nothing else ever happened, there would have been no war. Gossip, maybe, but that's about it.

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I think the whole 'crowning Lyanna caused the war' thing is too overstretched. I have always assumed people looked at it this way because of the abduction accident and the war. It's easy for them to see it as a first step in a dangerous journey now. Back then, I don't think 'all smiles died' because everyone could feel the war looming near. I think it was just a moment of a shock - Rhaegar was supposed to be so decent, the knight in a shining armour. He was practically obliged to crown Elia and he didn't. The shock of the unexpected event, the social awkwardness, the pity for a young sickly woman whose husband coldly stepped past her to crown a beautiful maiden - well, I can see why all smiles would die, too, without any hint of the upcoming war.

I am not a Rheagar lover but I like him a notch better than Robert. His problem was that his mind was so wrapped in his lofty ideals that whenever he needed to do something in the real world, it came either as awkwardly - crowning Lyanna, for example, - or downright stupid - taking her at the end of the world, practically. If he wanted her so much, he should have married her as soon as he got her. With his family traditions of bigamy, I don't think someone would hold it against him, except for the Baratheons and maybe the Starks (losing their new Baratheon union) who could be compensated in other ways. But no, he had to do just the silliest thing imaginable. He must have been influenced by some still unknown details regarding the prophecy. I cannot find any plausible explanation for this shining example of sheer idiocy otherwise. And Rhaegar was not an idiot. If he were, someone would have noticed and commented on it, like they did with Aerys. Rhaegar obviously cared for his wife - the scene on the ACOK implies that the two of them were close and Selmy says he was fond of her, - yet he still made her food for gossip, first with the crowning thing and then running off with Lyanna. If someone told him that, I suppose he'd be really surprised by this little glitch in his Great Prophecy Plan. And don't get me started with his certainty that he'd win against Robert. One would think that with all the reading he did, he should be aware that one wins and another loses?

Overall, the ADWD did nothing to change my opinion of Rhaegar. If anything, it just reinforced it.

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Doesn't matter. Courtly love rules do not strictly apply to Westeros. Aegon V actually married for love, and allowed his sons to do the same. Also, courtly love as you're describing it usually happened between a lower-status man and a higher-status woman. That's why she's unattainable. A higher-status man can have her, even if she's married, but not a lower-status man.

It's also pretty clear, from the way other characters describe the scene, that nobody expected troubadours to burst into song at that moment. Nobody laughed or cheered. "All the smiles died" <-- That was the reaction at Harrenhal.

Rhaegar's action was taken as an insult.

I am sure that "the all the smiles died" is not an immediate effect. That is how I have always read it at least. All the smiles died because that action indicated Rhaegar was interested/in love with Lyanna and the smiles died after the elopement / adbuction , and we all know that Lyanna wasn't nearly as thrilled at the prospect of marrying Robert as he was.

As for courtly love one of the best known examples is that of Theobald de Champagne, Troubadour and King of Navarre and Queen Blanche of Castile, widow of Louis VIII and mother of St. Louis IX, what so so unattainable there? Also royal mistresses are a fact that queens have had to live with since forever. I can think of only a handful of kings who didn't have mistresses, sometimes several at the same time: Henri II of France had a maitresse-en-titre, Diane de Poitiers, but that didn't prevent him from dallying with Janet Fleming (Mary Stuart's governess) and having a son with her.

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I like Rhaegar less if he absconded with Lyanna b/c of some stupid prophecy. Thats too calculated and boring. I think he's a rock star if he just said f*ck it, eff my family, eff ol robby baratheon, eff the starks, eff connington, eff elia, eff my kids, eff my dad, eff tradition, eff war, eff concequences, eff logic, ima get my nut off. Now if that is the case, as i sincerely hope it is, Rhaegar is my favorite character in the history of fantasy fiction. IF it turns out Rhaegar read some book that talked about fire and ice or wolf and dragon or had some crappy dream of a dragon mounting a wolf and took lyanna against her will, i say eff rhaegar, what a boring ol douche.

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Why does it always have to be an extreme with Rhaegar?

It's always either he was a perfect paragon of humanity who could do no wrong or he's a horrible, wife-mistreating douche who single-handedly started a war.

He was great in some ways, very flawed in others. In other words, a human being.

I don't think Rhaegar is either all bad or all good. However, I don't understand the double standards between Robert and Rhaegar. Robert leaving his bastards makes him a ass, but Rhaegar leaving his wife and kids with his psycho father to be with another woman doesn't make him one? Both mistreated their wives and kids.

I do hold him most responsible for the war. The crowning is what sparked the tension between the families, but the abduction is what started the war. I don't buy that he didn't see that coming. As I mentioned before, Catelyn taking Tyrion started a war between the Lannister's and the Starks and Ned being imprisoned caused Robb to declare war. In both cases, war was an expected result. So, Rhaegar had to have seen it coming when he took the daughter of the Warden of the North.

His actions not only put the realm in danger but the lives of his wife and kids as well. What he did was selfish and irresponsible. Barriston's point when he mentioned Rhaegar was that he didn't make the decisions that a leader should make and the realm suffered because of that.

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Some of these facts are actually assumptions. If Rhaegar's actions aren't insulting to House Stark, then why did the Starks and Baratheons feel insulted? (We have no way of knowing how the Martells initially reacted, so I won't mention them.)

One of us is not very good at reading compregension, because I'm struggling to connect just about any of your post to my list of facts and probabilities/possibilities/unknowns that it complains about.

Care to indicate where in that list I said that Rhaegars actions weren't insulting to House Stark, or House Baratheon?

There is no evidence in the text that Rhaegar proposed marriage to Lyanna Stark

First, care to indicate where on the list I said he did?

Second, there isn't any other good reason, or at least not one that has been brought up to date, why the 3KG are still at ToJ, except Rhaegar and Lyanna were married. Viserys is rightful king unless someone higher in the line of succession is around, which is only possible if Rhaegar and Lyanna's issue is legitimate, since everyone else is dead. The primary, though not only, purpose of the KG is to protect the king and it is not believable that any previous order would usurp that primary purpose to the extent that they would not even detach one member to go and guard the unprotected King Viserys.

That is textual evidence. The KG ignored the King entirely, right there in the text, unless the King was not the King.

and there is no evidence in the text that Lord Rickard Stark would have approved of his daughter being a second wife. You've assumed all of this based on a threadbare precedent of polygamous marriage which the Targaryens hardly used after Aegon and his sisters joined the Faith of Seven. It's possible to assume that the Seven don't condone polygamous marriage, because you don't see any tradition of that in Westeros.

I'm sorry, and what part of the list is this breaking?

That the precedent exists is undeniable, and that we have yet to see any evidence of a change to the law is also undeniable.

So you're assuming (and calling it "Fact") that the Targaryens' bannermen are okay with the Targaryen custom of polygamous marriage, when we have no evidence of that. The Starks hold to the old gods and, while the old gods have no rules, there's clearly no evidence of second and third wives among the major northern families. And all of this is assuming that Rhaegar actually had the intention to marry Lyanna Stark and made those intentions clear, which he didn't. Even if he wanted to marry her, he's breaking her betrothal to Robert Baratheon and abducting her/eloping with her without her father's consent. This is a reckless, irresponsible action that is guaranteed to piss off powerful people.

blah blah blah <peeks, oops, yes, a break in the rant>

What part of the list again?

You're also stating your opinion about Brandon and calling it fact:

You've admitted yourself that we don't know what news Brandon is reacting to, so in that case, how can we judge his reaction? I actually agree that Brandon was reckless, but he was in the right.

Well, yes, fair enough. Calling him reckless is opinion not fact.

Good enough for you to agree with though!

It was clearly reckless, even you admit that. It was clearly irresponsible - it could do nothing but inflame the situation and had virtually no chance of success.

So technically, not a fact, but I'm happy to let it stand frankly.

Being in the 'right' (maybe) isn't relevant here. The issue isn't whether a response was justified, but whether this response appropriate.

Since we don't know the details of the abduction or whether Rhaegar and Lyanna tried to spread word about what they were doing, let's not assume that they might have. No character seems to think it was anything other than a romantic affair or an abduction, and even Barristan - who would be in the know, if there was something else behind it - doesn't excuse Rhaegar for what he did.

Umm, which part is an assumption?

Oh, that would be the parts labeled clearly as possibilities, which explicitly include the possibility that no effort to communicate was made at all. Basically I thought I covered everything.

And for all your rant about not assuming they might have, you might remind yourself that by refusing to consider the possibility that they did you are assuming they did not - something we have no evidence of either. Certainly Brandon got word somehow.

Rickard Stark's reaction is even murkier, since like you said, we don't know what he knew, what messages he received, or what he was doing and planning. He does not seem to have realized that his son was in mortal danger, however, since if he had I think it more likely that he would have answered the king's summons by turning up with an army...but this is all conjecture.

Umm, exactly.

He didn't react crazily, like Brandon. He didn't react aggressively, calling his Banners. He reacted quite ordinarily, calmly you might say (I did), and came down to KL to sort it all out like it was no big deal at all. That is about all we know - and I might point out, that 'calmly' means in the big picture here, not personal emotional feelings.

Remember that the textual evidence for Ned and Ashara seemed pretty strong, until ADWD came along and it suddenly appeared that the evidence seems to suggest Brandon and Ashara instead. This is another reason why I'm not convinced that the text supports Rhaegar's actions and decisions...

So your argument here is... since the evidence has proven capable of changing directions, when it points north, we can't think it points north because it might change later? :bang:

In that case, why are you here? Come back when the last book is out and the evidence can't change anymore!

though if GRRM explains everything in the 6th book and 7th book and proves me wrong, THEN I might accept it.

I note the might, and am not surprised. :P

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He fell in love with Lyanna, and love makes fools of us all

Perhaps I could have been more concise, because you possibly hit the nail on the head. Rhaegar is a much more forgivable character if he erred from love rather than erring from trying to enact prophecy. From what we know of Rhaegar we can think the very best of him (IMHO) that he is a lovestruck, well-intentioned goofball, or we can go to the opposite end of the spectrum and think he is a man coldly calculating prophecy (or anywhere in between). I want to think the former, because otherwise I feel he must be villian. Neither scenario paints him in a particular heroic light, but at least if you are mad with love, well, then, that is somewhat forgivable.

Unfortunately, I don't see it that way.

I believe the most telling sentence of Selmy's chapter was not that a "Stark" dishonored Ashara, but that everyone had secrets, even Rhaegar, Rhaegar didn't trust him as much as Arthur, Harrenhal proved that. This is after Oswell went to speak with his brother who then called for a tourney, could be coincidence, but more and more I see Rhaegar trying to force prophecy and whoever it hurts be damned.

He mysteriously had control over most of the KG at that time.

It seems there are a lot of factors that point to him thinking he "knows" what doing, and not just being a hopeless romantic.

And Mel is critized for trying to "force" prophecy, yet it seems Rhaegar was doing the same, yet he gets a pass.

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Perhaps I could have been more concise, because you possibly hit the nail on the head. Rhaegar is a much more forgivable character if he erred from love rather than erring from trying to enact prophecy. From what we know of Rhaegar we can think the very best of him (IMHO) that he is a lovestruck, well-intentioned goofball, or we can go to the opposite end of the spectrum and think he is a man coldly calculating prophecy (or anywhere in between).

My personal theory is, it's a bit of both. I think he fell in love with her but was going to suppress it and be faithful. The prophecy gave him the excuse. See? Even the GODS want me to make little prophecy babies with Lyanna! :laugh: He did want to fulfill the prophecy, but unless it was extremely specific, there are probably any number of women he could have had an affair or marriage with--he just wanted that one.(And we as readers have reason to suspect Stark blood might really have been important, but I don't think Rhaegar knew that, else why think his child by Elia of Dorne was the linchpin of the prophecy?)

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I don't think Rhaegar is either all bad or all good. However, I don't understand the double standards between Robert and Rhaegar. Robert leaving his bastards makes him a ass, but Rhaegar leaving his wife and kids with his psycho father to be with another woman doesn't make him one? Both mistreated their wives and kids.

I do hold him most responsible for the war. The crowning is what sparked the tension between the families, but the abduction is what started the war. I don't buy that he didn't see that coming. As I mentioned before, Catelyn taking Tyrion started a war between the Lannister's and the Starks and Ned being imprisoned caused Robb to declare war. In both cases, war was an expected result. So, Rhaegar had to have seen it coming when he took the daughter of the Warden of the North.

His actions not only put the realm in danger but the lives of his wife and kids as well. What he did was selfish and irresponsible. Barriston's point when he mentioned Rhaegar was that he didn't make the decisions that a leader should make and the realm suffered because of that.

Catelyn taking tyrion and R + L are apples and oranges. And more importantly, it wasnt the kidnapping of tyrion that in any way started the war, it was ned stark claiming the kidnapping to be his action, not his wife's. If ned had instead said, "I'll talk to Cat and get Tyrion back", there would have been no war.

Similarilly, if the starks had used more political methods of inquiring about Lyanna, instead of storming kings landing demanding blood and death, there may not have been a war. SOMEONE (read: a certain eunich) knew exactly where lyanna was, and if handled correcly, that information would have come to light and history would have unfolded differently.

Lets look at Rhaegar in a different light for a second. When you say "what he did was selfish and irresponsible" i can see your point, if you look at rhaegar as a lusty young man thinking with the wrong head.

OR

lets look at it another way. Lets say Rhaegar had ZERO interest in the nubile young wolf. Perhaps he found her manly ways unseemly, or was the odd westerosi male who wasnt attracted to 15 year old children. But he was convinced of the veracity of his prophetic dreams, in conjunction with the books he had read. He KNOWS that the future of the entire world is at stake if he doesnt give up his wife and kids to make The Prince who was Promised. The last thing he wanted to do was steal away with Lyanna Stark; in fact it was an absolutely INCREDIBLE sacrafice he made for the future of the world. It would have selfish and irresponsible for him to ignore his prophetic dreams, which he is 100% certain are correct. I mean how stupid would it have been for him to choose elia and the kids, no matter how much he wanted to, if it meant the destruction of westeros? The man made the most difficult choice a person could make, for the sake of the world, and here you all just get on him like that. FOR SHAME.

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If I am reading the timelines after the Harrenhal tourney are correct, Rhaegar had to have returned to KL before he went anywhere.

Since Elia was at Harrenhal, then Aegon could not have been born yet (or she would be bed ridden.)

This is assuming that Dany's vision of Rhaegar, Elia and baby is an actual event.

Could Lyanna have been elsewhere after Harrenhal, then met up with Rhaegar?

There is a gap of time after Harrenhal, when Brandon/Petyr have the duel and the Brandon takes off again.

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Both Robert and Rhaegar's main flaw was that they were living in a fantasy land. Robert obviously idolized Lyanna and thought that his marriage with Lyanna would have been peaches and cream when it wouldn't have been. What we know of Rhaegar is that he was very emo and lived in a fantasy land to some extent. The guy would go off for weeks and wander around the ruins of Summerhall and write dreamy poems and songs about it. He was obsessed above about all the book notions about the code of knighthood and courtly love. Such a guy would probably become obsessed with fulfilling a prophecy after reading about it and would probably focus on the prophecy and ignore the realpolitick implications of his actions.

What is ironic about the situation is that Rhaegar and Lyanna's doomed affair (emphasis on the doomed part) was necessary to fulfill the Azor Ahai prophecy. You'd want your savior to be near where the threat is (at the Wall). And I'd highly doubt that Jon would have become a sworn brother of the Night's Watch if he hadn't grown up the bastard son of Ned Stark; Jon Targaryen would probably have gotten a fakeAegon style education in preparation for being the world's savior. Also, the dragons seem like necessary tools in the fight against the Others. Without Dany fleeing for her life her entire childhood, the events in GOT culminating with the baby dragons would not have happened.

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If I am reading the timelines after the Harrenhal tourney are correct, Rhaegar had to have returned to KL before he went anywhere.

Since Elia was at Harrenhal, then Aegon could not have been born yet (or she would be bed ridden.)

This is assuming that Dany's vision of Rhaegar, Elia and baby is an actual event.

Could Lyanna have been elsewhere after Harrenhal, then met up with Rhaegar?

There is a gap of time after Harrenhal, when Brandon/Petyr have the duel and the Brandon takes off again.

There's definitely a big gap. It's about a year between Harrenhal and Rhaegar's abduction or "abduction" of Lyanna, IIRC, during which time Aegon was born. We don't know where everybody was; Lyanna could have been back at Winterfell, or a lady in waiting in KL, or probably other possibilities I haven't thought of yet.

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