The problem with prophecy...

[Michael Stephen Bell Jr.]

On the board for ACOK there is a topic dealing with the introduction of the supernatural, and I thought that I would start something similar here, although mine (at least in this initial posting) deals mostly with prophecies and why I generally dislike the use of prophecy as a plot device (sorry if this is kinda long).

What any reader should know by this point in the series (so I don't think I am spoiling anything) is that there was this dude named Rhaegar and this lady named Lyanna and although they were married/betrothed to other parties, either Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna or they ran away together. Now from what we read in the initial book this isn't a big deal as we see people do rotten things throughout, though we get some hints from other perspectives that indicate that this Rhaegar was a pretty good guy and not as big a jerk as Robert was making him out to be.

This continues in the next two books as we find that Rhaegar was noble and great at everything (all from different perspectives, so this is all subjective of course) so this continues to complicate matters a bit. It is from this is where many derive the 'they ran off together' scenario. Problem being that if they did elope it created a great deal of suffering for everyone else and the death of the two principles as well.

How to explain what motivated all of this misery? Well it could be that they were motivated by love or lust like many another person, and that would be reasonable but it would make Rhaegar and Lyanna a couple of self-involved douches. Or perhaps Rhaegar did kidnap Lyanna just making him one big jerk. But for those who like neither scenario we have an escape clause in the form of prophecy. Apparently Rhaegar was big on reading old scrolls that delved into this highly reliable way of forecasting, and that may have motivated him/them to get this big ball o' grief rolling.

My problems with that, it comes across as such a cop-out. I can't count how many bad stories have used vague prophecies found in old scrolls as a motivation for unusual behavior. It takes the choices that the main characters make outside of the realm of normal human motivation and tries to give them a metaphysical stamp of approval. So if Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna out of love/lust, or they ran away together because of a shared love, it would be bad; but if some god from on high or some ancient writing gives some cryptic warning that could be interpreted any number of ways, then no problem.

That to me is completely wrongheaded and bad for the story. For instance, Davos' disagreement with the sacrificing of Edric Storm is due to his belief that the murder of children is wrong. This doesn't matter whether some god supposedly commanded it or not, it is still just as wrong. Davos can be read as something of a moral anchor for the readers in these chapters I feel.

Getting back to why it is bad for the story, if you go the way of vague prophecy as being the primary motivator for much of the foregrounding for all the events we are witnessing, I feel you cheapen it by taking it out of the realm of human motivation and emotion. People fall in love, people lust, and they make poor decisions because of these elemental facts. Rhaegar kidnapping or running away with Lyanna seen from that angle would be pretty comparable to Rob's breaking his oath by marrying Jeyne Casterling. Not admirable to be sure, but hardly outside of what most consider understandable human behavior.

Actually given how prevalent the use of vague prophecy found in documents of dubious authenticity are used to make decisions in the real world, perhaps it is more sound than I thought. :blink:

[lezboyd]

... if you go the way of vague prophecy as being the primary motivator for much of the foregrounding for all the events we are witnessing,...

Honestly, I always thought Jon Arryn's death, and Robert's and Ned's deaths later on, is what started this whole conflict rolling. Robert's motivation for rebellion against the Mad King would just be a flashback story of sorts, and would be resolved as flashbacks. The only prophecies I am concentrating on are the ones regarding Daenerys, because depending on how you look at it, she still has either one or two betrayals left.

[GrandPoobah]

You're also leaving Lyanna's part out of all of this. Who's to say she didn't go willingly? Maybe she ran off with Rhaegar and her father deemed it a kidnapping?

The more and more we learn about Lyanna, the more we find out she was a lot more like Arya than Sansa. She liked fighting. There's a fairly good chance SHE was the mystery knight who defended Howland Reed at the tournament at Harrenhall. She was "wild." Tending towards "unladylike" behavior. Age her up to a teenager...

[GrandPoobah]

Double post, sorry.

[Silmarien]

On the board for ACOK there is a topic dealing with the introduction of the supernatural, and I thought that I would start something similar here, although mine (at least in this initial posting) deals mostly with prophecies and why I generally dislike the use of prophecy as a plot device (sorry if this is kinda long).

What any reader should know by this point in the series (so I don't think I am spoiling anything) is that there was this dude named Rhaegar and this lady named Lyanna and although they were married/betrothed to other parties, either Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna or they ran away together. Now from what we read in the initial book this isn't a big deal as we see people do rotten things throughout, though we get some hints from other perspectives that indicate that this Rhaegar was a pretty good guy and not as big a jerk as Robert was making him out to be.

This continues in the next two books as we find that Rhaegar was noble and great at everything (all from different perspectives, so this is all subjective of course) so this continues to complicate matters a bit. It is from this is where many derive the 'they ran off together' scenario. Problem being that if they did elope it created a great deal of suffering for everyone else and the death of the two principles as well.

How to explain what motivated all of this misery? Well it could be that they were motivated by love or lust like many another person, and that would be reasonable but it would make Rhaegar and Lyanna a couple of self-involved douches. Or perhaps Rhaegar did kidnap Lyanna just making him one big jerk. But for those who like neither scenario we have an escape clause in the form of prophecy. Apparently Rhaegar was big on reading old scrolls that delved into this highly reliable way of forecasting, and that may have motivated him/them to get this big ball o' grief rolling.

My problems with that, it comes across as such a cop-out. I can't count how many bad stories have used vague prophecies found in old scrolls as a motivation for unusual behavior. It takes the choices that the main characters make outside of the realm of normal human motivation and tries to give them a metaphysical stamp of approval. So if Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna out of love/lust, or they ran away together because of a shared love, it would be bad; but if some god from on high or some ancient writing gives some cryptic warning that could be interpreted any number of ways, then no problem.

That to me is completely wrongheaded and bad for the story. For instance, Davos' disagreement with the sacrificing of Edric Storm is due to his belief that the murder of children is wrong. This doesn't matter whether some god supposedly commanded it or not, it is still just as wrong. Davos can be read as something of a moral anchor for the readers in these chapters I feel.

Getting back to why it is bad for the story, if you go the way of vague prophecy as being the primary motivator for much of the foregrounding for all the events we are witnessing, I feel you cheapen it by taking it out of the realm of human motivation and emotion. People fall in love, people lust, and they make poor decisions because of these elemental facts. Rhaegar kidnapping or running away with Lyanna seen from that angle would be pretty comparable to Rob's breaking his oath by marrying Jeyne Casterling. Not admirable to be sure, but hardly outside of what most consider understandable human behavior.

Actually given how prevalent the use of vague prophecy found in documents of dubious authenticity are used to make decisions in the real world, perhaps it is more sound than I thought.

I actually think Rhaegar at least cared for Lyanna (and that their fondness was mutual). I don't think it makes sense to read into it as "Rhaegar only ran away with Lyanna because of a prophesy". His father disliked the Knight of the Laughing tree, and it's strongly implied that this was Lyanna. Aerys sent Rhaegar to find the identity of the KotLT, and perhaps, upon finding it was Lyanna Stark, he became smitten and admired her spirit. We also know Lyanna wasn't keen on marrying Robert, since he had a reputation as a whoremonger, which she wisely knew wouldn't change just because Robert thought he "looooved" her.

Also it is mentioned that Rhaegar played a song that made her weep. So it's implied there was at least a crush, or admiration, of Rhaegar on Lyanna's part. And we know that Rhaegar crowned Lyanna queen of love and beauty after winning the Harrenhall Tournament. He might have loved her.

Human motives and prophesy aren't mutually exclusive.

So, Rhaegar might've valued Lyanna Stark because she was "ice" whereas he was "fire", but I doubt that was his sole motivation for kidnapping/running off with her. There are human reasons this occurred, as well.

We know Rhaegar was convinced that his children would play out a prophesy that we know very little about, other than that it involves three Heads of the Dragon (which he believed would be Aegon, Rhaenys, and the child he had with Lyanna). Without knowing what specifically Rhaegar read in those scrolls, we're really just left to guess. And there's no definitive view of past events - we see them only through the lens of other characters' memories.

To say ASOIAF relies solely on prophesy is not accurate. Prophesy is a big part of ASOIAF, but it's also described as "a sword without a hilt - difficult to grasp without getting cut". Rhaegar discovered this, since he originally thought HE was the PWWP, then later thought it was Aegon. We still don't really know who the PWWP is (Jon? perhaps, if he is Lyanna and Rhaegar's son). Until we know exactly what the prophesy Rhaegar read states, it will be impossible to do more than conjecture about what it means.

We see the dangers of relying on prophesy in Cersei's POV - the Maggy the Frog prophesy, which causes severe paranoia on Cersei's part, and leads her to act in ways that make the prophesy self-fulfilling (she does this moreso in AFFC, so I won't further expand upon it).

Why is prophesy a bad thing to have in a story? Why does it mitigate human motives? I don't think it does. Just IMHO.