[Pre-ADwD Spoilers] Daenerys 3 - Spoilers for ADWD

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Good question. But we know so little about him that he could be anything and all other position are taken unless he is mummers dragon but this is not likely.

He need not occupy a position at all. Sea travel in autumn is treacherous.

[Mezeh]

He need not occupy a position at all. Sea travel in autumn is treacherous.

I don’t think that Martin would introduce him in TFFC only to kill him on the way o Dany.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I'm not a hundred percent certain that Marwyn will die, but given the situation I can easily see why he might. It raises the stakes; we know--or are led to believe, at least--that there's a conspiracy against Dany that she can't even guess at, and without Marwyn to alert her, it's suddenly a lot less clear how she could escape it. It's like when Scatman Caruthers dies in THE SHINING; suddenly, it's like, "Jesus Christ, what are they going to do now?"

[Mezeh]

I'm not a hundred percent certain that Marwyn will die, but given the situation I can easily see why he might. It raises the stakes; we know--or are led to believe, at least--that there's a conspiracy against Dany that she can't even guess at, and without Marwyn to alert her, it's suddenly a lot less clear how she could escape it. It's like when Scatman Caruthers dies in THE SHINING; suddenly, it's like, "Jesus Christ, what are they going to do now?"

Marwyn surely could die like anybody else Martin said that no one safe in his book. But I don’t think that he will die to soon not before he will fulfill the purpose Martin brought him in. There were some characters that died in the same chapter they first appeared but those who survived the first had tendency to last a little longer.

[Lion]

I would like to know more about that dream in beginig of chapter!

[Ser Greguh]

It seems to me that Varys is by far and away the most promising candidate for the perfumed seneschal of which she should be wary. I would also like to submit my hypothesis that his betrayal will also be the "treason for blood".

First, the betrayal angle. Obviously, by saying that Varys will betray Dany for blood, I'm assuming that it was not MMD, as most people here seem to think. I'm totally not convinced that MMD's actions constituted a treason; she did, after all, give Dany exactly what Dany asked for. Dany's problem was that she did not know what she was asking for. MMD also, to my knowledge, never gave Dany any oath of fealty, direct or implied. Exacting revenge? Sure. Betrayal or treason? Not in my book. Dany has all three of her treasons forthcoming in my opinion.

With that out of the way, consider some points of interest:

1) Varys told Ned that his motive was peace. He had no reason to lie to Ned (who was condemned to die or go to the wall, where his opinion of Varys would not matter). Yet he supports a conspiracy with Illyrio to bring Viserys, and then Daenerys, across to conquer Westeros in (dragon)fire and blood? That's a crappy kind of peace.

UNLESS you consider that Varys may want both peace, and revenge. He's finding an opportunity to worm his way into her inner circle, and stab Daenerys in the back. This prevents an invasion, but also puts forth an ulterior motive:

2) Varys hates magic. Yet dragons are magical, and their arrival has brought magic back into the world. Supporting the person that brought magic back into the world seems awfully illogical for someone that hates magic.

Unless, of course, his support for Dany is a scheme to exact revenge ... of a sort ... on the mages that robbed him of his manhood, which dovetails nicely into the "betrayal for blood" angle.

3) He is not really a seneschal in Westeros ... he's a spymaster ... but it's not at all unlikely that Dany would make him a seneschal of some sort. He is, after all, going to be very ill-suited to keep his old position, assuming he joins Dany. What made him such a great spymaster was that he had a massive network of "little birds" set up, and a castle riddled with secret passages to make use of, neither of which he will have in Mereen. He has a good head on his shoulders, though, so Dany could very rationally set him up to run her household.

4) The use of the adjective "perfumed" is the real kicker. It's one thing to provide a title of seneschal, and fudge someone's position to meet it, it's another thing entirely to use the word "perfumed" as the primary adjective to describe someone. Varys is the only character we've met in the books that fits that description (in fact, everyone that's met him up to this point uses that word to describe him). Barring the possibility that it's someone we haven't met yet (which isn't nearly as much fun, since it gives us nothing to speculate about), Varys is the only character that we've met in the series who could be described as "perfumed" before any other adjectives popped to mind.

In a way, in fact, that may actually count against the theory, based on the meta-analysis that that's way too obvious for GRRM. But we shall see.

Thoughts?

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I'm not sure I agree with your "treason for blood analysis". Two points:

1) MMD doesn't have to offer Dany her fealty. Dany claimed her as a slave to save her from the Dothraki, and didn't free her afterwards.

2) She didn't give Dany exactly what she was asking for; Dany never asks that her unborn child be turned into a dead and rotting monster, and in fact the last thing she wants at the end of that chapter is to be carried into the tent. She claims afterwards that Dany knew the price, but of course MMD would be a lot better off if Dany blamed herself for Rhaego's death so that's hardly trustworthy.

[Barba]

I don't think Varys is perfumed senescal.

1) The way Quaithe says it, by the end of the propercy, it always makes me belive that perfumed senescal is someone who is now (or will be very soon) near Dany.

2) Martin said that Varys did not leave KL and that:" He still has a lot of things to do there". Now, for Dany to conquer westeros in next three books, I think she has to leave Mereen by the end of DWD. So, assuming Varys is in KL during FFC (very likley situation), and Dany leaves Mereen by the end of DWD(my oppinion), Varys and Dany will defenetley not meet in Mereen.

[Daedalus V2.0]

Sorry if this is a little bit off topic, but... Is there any proof that Quaithe is a real person? Has anybody other than Dany actually seen her?

[Barba]

Sorry if this is a little bit off topic, but... Is there any proof that Quaithe is a real person? Has anybody other than Dany actually seen her?

Dosen't matter. When she appears she says prophecy and on us is to figure out what it is

[Mezeh]

I don't think Varys is perfumed senescal.

1) The way Quaithe says it, by the end of the propercy, it always makes me belive that perfumed senescal is someone who is now (or will be very soon) near Dany.

2) Martin said that Varys did not leave KL and that:" He still has a lot of things to do there". Now, for Dany to conquer westeros in next three books, I think she has to leave Mereen by the end of DWD. So, assuming Varys is in KL during FFC (very likley situation), and Dany leaves Mereen by the end of DWD(my oppinion), Varys and Dany will defenetley not meet in Mereen.

I completely agree with you and IMHO the same could be applied to Illirio as well. He is sending Tyrion with Grif’s company and this clearly point that he is not going to go himself.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Sorry if this is a little bit off topic, but... Is there any proof that Quaithe is a real person? Has anybody other than Dany actually seen her?

Jorah's seen her, and mentions her in Dany's second ACoK chapter. It seems reasonable to me that she's a real person using the glass candles to talk to Dany.

[Paul H]

Jorah's seen her, and mentions her in Dany's second ACoK chapter. It seems reasonable to me that she's a real person using the glass candles to talk to Dany.

The glass candle angle is an excellent catch.

[Daedalus V2.0]

Jorah's seen her, and mentions her in Dany's second ACoK chapter. It seems reasonable to me that she's a real person using the glass candles to talk to Dany.

That is an excellent theory. I had a little conspiracy theory going, but if somebody other than Dany has seen her then she does exist. It does seem obvious that Qaithe is using a glass candle, when you consider the context of her statement.

Frankly, the 'Perfumed Seneschal' could be a character not yet introduced. I prefer to hold judgement and cease speculation until more information is provided.

I am much more interested in the various signs said to be arriving soon. While it seems likely that the Pale Mare will be a completely new character, I believe that all of the 'sign' arrivals are characters that have already been introduced by this point (reasonable to assume Tyrion 2 is before Dany 3). This means that several major options for the crow are: The Crow's Eye, an as yet unnamed brother of the Night's watch (I believe Samwell Tarly may be a cantidate for this), or, possibly, Maester Marwyn (maesters and crows go hand in hand in Westeros).

Personally, at the current point in time, I think that Marwyn and Tarly hold top spot for the position of 'Crow'. You guys have gone much farther than me for the mummer's Dragon, and I don't really know enough to properly speculate there.

[Benjen]

Quaithe is real. She rode with Jhogo, Pyat Pree, and Xaro Zhoan Daxos from Qarth to Vaes Tolorro to see the dragons. Then rode with Dany and the whole party back to Qarth again, and was the last of the "three seekers" to leave Dany's company when they arrived in Qarth.

The Pale mare reference ... I think it'll be one of the dosh khaleen from Vaes Dothrak, accompanying one of the four Khals mentioned in the AFFC appendix, Pono, Jhaqo, Morro, or Jommo.

The Crow reference... It doesn't make sense to me that Marwyn or Sam would be able to get to Meereen before the rest do, and Euron seems to be staying home (though he could change his mind). I'll go with Euron for now, the crow is such a tricksy bird.

[sandy cleggers]

Hello,

This may have been disproved already (sorry) but I've always been unclear about the vision that Dany has in the house of the undying, where shee sees a corpse in the prow of ship. Could it be possible that Martin is using a variant of the"pale horse" expression to point to that character? There do seem to be a lot of dead (kind of) characters roaming about.

[Mezeh]

The Pale mare reference ... I think it'll be one of the dosh khaleen from Vaes Dothrak, accompanying one of the four Khals mentioned in the AFFC appendix, Pono, Jhaqo, Morro, or Jommo.

The Crow reference... It doesn't make sense to me that Marwyn or Sam would be able to get to Meereen before the rest do, and Euron seems to be staying home (though he could change his mind). I'll go with Euron for now, the crow is such a tricksy bird.

Dothraki never followed any woman before Dany so why to nention female follower without of mentioning others? Besides crones never leave Vaes Dothrak.

As for Sam he is going to forge his chain. Leaving Oldtown would be breaking his orders and his vows as well. He will never do it unless Jon would command him and there is a very little chance that Jon would.

[Daedalus V2.0]

Hello,

This may have been disproved already (sorry) but I've always been unclear about the vision that Dany has in the house of the undying, where shee sees a corpse in the prow of ship. Could it be possible that Martin is using a variant of the"pale horse" expression to point to that character? There do seem to be a lot of dead (kind of) characters roaming about.

Most people attribute the corpse on the ship to Maester Aemon, as the description fits fairly well, and is a significant event with important consequences for Dany. I tend to agree with them, in this case.

Is there any possibility that Auraine (sp) Waters is the 'Mummer's Dragon' mentioned by the prophecy. Cercei notes that he has vaguely Targ features, and at the head of a fleet of ships Dany might well nelieve him if he says that he is a descendant of her house.

[Mezeh]

Is there any possibility that Auraine (sp) Waters is the 'Mummer's Dragon' mentioned by the prophecy. Cercei notes that he has vaguely Targ features, and at the head of a fleet of ships Dany might well nelieve him if he says that he is a descendant of her house.

Barely. He has a valyrian look not Targaryen and he is too old to pass for Aegon.

[Lord Varys]

On the Varys issue:

As GRRM has stated that Varys has not left King's Landing, I don't think Dany will met him in the near future (it's probable that they will never met, for both are mortal, and Varys has all reason to avoid the presence of the authorities in King's Landing), and so I don't think he will be the parfumed seneschal.

But it should be difficult for Varys to get Dany's trust, as for now just the reader knew about the Illyrio-Varys-connection - Jorah Mormont is forsaken for sending reports to Varys. Daenerys consinders Varys as traitor. Neither Tyrion nor Barristan Selmy (both ended joining Dany's cause because of Varys's schemes) seems to realize that it was Varys who orchestrated their fates.

So there is in my opinion no indication in the near furure that Dany is going to be that intimate with Varys that he could betray her.

The whole Varys-Illyrio-thing is still clouded. Why should they support or betray any Targaryen? Illyrio has everything he wants, and Varys could serve any King in Westeros as Master of Whisperers much easier, if he would be completely loyal to him, and only him ;-).

Even if we think Varys's motivation is his hate of magic (I would rather consider it as hate of sorcerers/magicans - and that's something he shares with Daenerys), there's no reason to support Viserys Targaryen if you hate magic. You should rather eradicate the House utterly, as (as Varys) you should know about the magical quality of some members of this house.

So there's actually no reason for Varys to support House Targaryen if his only motivation is this magic-thing.

On the short way there are traitors/enemies in the East, Dany should be worry about. That's the thing ADwD will be about. Truly, the Westerosi visitors will come, but rather in the end of the book, but neither Varys nor Illyrio will be among them.

Of course it's possible that Quaithe's prophecy extends to events in TWoW and ADoS (actually it's likely, as the visions in the House of Dust have a similar quality).