R + L = J Part XXIV

[The Greatmatt]

This is what I take issue with, for a couple reasons I've mostly spelled out before:

1) Ned telling Catelyn the truth about Jon is dangerous, for both her and Jon. This is a momentous secret, and even telling one more person risks letting the whole thing get out. And if Catelyn is discovered to have known all along, she herself would likely be executed for treason.

2) Catelyn really didn't treat Jon that badly, per the quote from George above. However, if you think she's a danger to Jon while she thinks he's Ned's son, just imagine how she would feel if she found out about Jon's true parentage. Surely harboring the son of Rhaegar is more dangerous than raising Ned's biological son? I think Catelyn would be even more insistent that he could not stay at Winterfell, because he would be even more of a danger to her children as Rhaegar's son.

Cat treating Jon bad is what makes her have to share the responsibility. "Honey, I wanted to protect you from this, but I didn't make a promise to my dying sister so that she could look down from the afterlife and see you treating him like dirt. So now you have to protect him too."

Re: "even more dangerous if R's son". Ah this is an interesting contingency as well.

First, let's note 2 that there are two very different dangers here. Cat sees Jon as a personal betrayal by her husband that basically no woman of her stature should have to deal with (because of how he's being treated by Ned, nod simply due to his existence) as well as someone who may very well attempt violence on her children or their descendants.

This is very different from including her in a family secret which btw if it's potentially dangerous at all is probably dangerous regardless of whether she knows about it. If Robert's really willing to kill Ned over this, no one in the family is truly safe.

So I think it's an entirely reasonable risk to take depending on Cat's mentality.

Now of course, if he thinks she may go insane when hearing this news, he shouldn't tell her, but that comes back to the trust issue. If he doesn't trust her, then there's nothing else to be done with her.

[The_BlauerDragon]

I'm new to these boards so I haven't heard the counterarguments. Care to expound?

I gave up on trying to introduce reason to the followers of this insane crack-pot nonsense many years ago... but I will try to figure out a way to search back to the old posts where the litany of counterarguments were hashed and rehashed and subsequently ignored by the followers of the theory which shall not be named.

ETA: If I find it, I will post a link for you to follow.

[TippsBlackandWhite]

There's many counterarguements.

Found this old thread detailing the pros and cons of many different possibilities.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/8085-the-lyanna-rhaegar-jon-thread/page__st__120__p__282523#entry282523

There's also the FAQ (more detailed) from here:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/2291/

[LadyMary]

And this is why Ned's actions make total sense from a narrative perspective, but when the time came where she was essentially saying "When you go to KL, I will not let Jon stay here" and thus forcing the boy to be tossed in with the worst criminals in the 7 Kingdoms, I would say this was quite foolish on Ned's part.

Also interesting: It makes sense to say he didn't tell Cat because he didn't trust her, HOWEVER, as we've seen in the series it's not that out of the ordinary for wives to kill bastard children they see as threats. If Cat truly was untrustworthy, letting her think Jon was a bastard is maybe the most dangerous thing he could have done, and if Cat was trustworthy, then it's probably better for all involved if she knows the truth.

You're forgetting that Ned loved Jon and cared about his well-being and Cat knew that. Perhaps some men who fathered bastards didn't care enough to be bothered with them at all and let their wives decide how to dispose of them, but that's not Ned's way. After all, Ned was estranged from Robert over the murders of Targaryen children. Nor for that matter, is it Catelyn's way. She was resentful of Jon, not murderous. Why would Cat try to kill one of Ned's beloved children knowing that Ned would never forgive her for it?

On the other hand, if Ned had confessed the truth, then while Cat would have known Jon wasn't Ned's bastard son, she would have been made aware of her Husband's treason against the King and even more resentful of Jon for potentially endangering her family by his very presence. Do you really think Cat would have been more understanding if she knew that?

I think a little resentment from Cat to Jon for being a reminder of Ned's apparent infidelity probably seemed like a small price to pay to keep Jon and the rest of Ned's family safe from Robert's wrath.

[The Greatmatt]

You're forgetting that Ned loved Jon and cared about his well-being and Cat knew that. Perhaps some men who fathered bastards didn't care enough to be bothered with them at all and let their wives decide how to dispose of them, but that's not Ned's way. After all, Ned was estranged from Robert over the murders of Targaryen children. Nor for that matter, is it Catelyn's way. She was resentful of Jon, not murderous. Why would Cat try to kill one of Ned's beloved children knowing that Ned would never forgive her for it?

On the other hand, if Ned had confessed the truth, then while Cat would have known Jon wasn't Ned's bastard son, she would have been made aware of her Husband's treason against the King and even more resentful of Jon for potentially endangering her family by his very presence. Do you really think Cat would have been more understanding if she knew that?

I think a little resentment from Cat to Jon for being a reminder of Ned's apparent infidelity probably seemed like a small price to pay to keep Jon and the rest of Ned's family safe from Robert's wrath.

Not forgetting, talking as a conditional, i.e. "if she was untrustworthy...".

[The Greatmatt]

There's many counterarguements.

Found this old thread detailing the pros and cons of many different possibilities.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/8085-the-lyanna-rhaegar-jon-thread/page__st__120__p__282523#entry282523

There's also the FAQ (more detailed) from here:

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/FAQ/Entry/2291/

Thank you. I have seen at least some of these before, so maybe there's not much more for me to see. To me the problem with alternative theories is the set of facts:

1) Rheagar wants another baby

2) Rheagar steals Lyanna

3) She's next seen on a bloody bed dying

4) She makes Ned make a promise

5) Ned's promise weighs like a millstone around his neck for the rest of his life.

R+L=J explains all of these easily, I've yet to see anyone make a case for the alternatives that does and that's what I'd need to see. If someone has that, I'd love to see it.

That doesn't mean that another couldn't prove to be true when additional information is disclosed, but I until that happens R+L=J is clearly the leading contender.

[LadyMary]

Not forgetting, talking as a conditional, i.e. "if she was untrustworthy...".

I don't think it was necessarily a matter of Ned thinking Cat was "untrustworthy", but the more people who know the secret, the more likely it is someone will spill the secret to the wrong person and that would leave not only Jon but Ned, Cat and everyone who had that information in danger.

I think Ned probably felt keeping the secret from Cat and everyone else was the lesser of two "betrayals". Cat thinks Ned cheated on her and resents Jon for it, but she doesn't have to bear the burden of Ned's promise to protect a child who would have a target on his back if Robert found out Jon was Rhaegar's son. We know that even though Ned did the more honorable thing (presumably, protecting his sister's child), the lies he told to keep that promise weighed heavily on his conscience.

[George Snow]

I don't think it was necessarily a matter of Ned thinking Cat was "untrustworthy", but the more people who know the secret, the more likely it is someone will spill the secret to the wrong person and that would leave not only Jon but Ned, Cat and everyone who had that information in danger.

I think Ned probably felt keeping the secret from Cat and everyone else was the lesser of two "betrayals". Cat thinks Ned cheated on her and resents Jon for it, but she doesn't have to bear the burden of Ned's promise to protect a child who would have a target on his back if Robert found out Jon was Rhaegar's son. We know that even though Ned did the more honorable thing (presumably, protecting his sister's child), the lies he told to keep that promise weighed heavily on his conscience.

Think about this.

Jon being Ned's bastard son is a good cover story for him. In this case, you'd expect that Ned's wife would be cold to Jon.

If Ned's wife isn't cold to Jon, then people might start wondering why she isn't cold to Jon. Maybe she knows something about him that others do not. Then someone might start looking into what that secret might be. And they might realize that Jon came back to Winterfell with Ned, and the first place that Ned was seen with Jon was after he visited his sister at the Tower of Joy.

So while Catelyn being cold to Jon may not be the best thing in the world, it help preserve his cover, and keeps him safer.

GH

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't by it. If Lyanna was Jon's mother, I see no reason why Ned couldn't have told Catelyn. Lord knows Ned loved her, and trusted her fully. It's clear that Catelyn hates Jon believing him to be Ned's bastard, so why not just tell her if he wasn't his?

Obviously Lyanna probably would've requested he kept it all hush hush but surely Ned could trust Catelyn?

1. When Ned married Catelyn, they hardly knew each other. At the time, Ned had no way of knowing whether she'd keep the secret. By the time they grew closer, the lie about Jon's parentage was already pretty solid. It's not something you can lie about for years and then suddenly spring on someone.

2. If Catelyn doesn't know, she's protected by plausible deniability if Robert ever finds out. Ned can say, honestly, that she had nothing to do with the cover-up, and hopefully she'd be spared the punishment.

EDIT: And I think that this theory is hardly "crackpot." If anything, at this point in the series, I tend to see people as being more crackpot if they don't believe in it.

[The Greatmatt]

EDIT: And I think that this theory is hardly "crackpot." If anything, at this point in the series, I tend to see people as being more crackpot if they don't believe in it.

Agreed. The key thing for me is that knowing nothing else about R & L running off, you would expect that a child would be likely to come of it. And then Ned finds L, and she appears to have just given birth and forces him to make a promise that haunts Ned.

What's the most likely explanation? Obviously it's that there was a child involved, and she asked Ned to do something relating to that child.

We then actually have a major character raised by Ned with mysterious parentage and various prophecy stuff that seems to apply to him. Hard to imagine that there's a likelier candidate for that mystery child than him.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Agreed. The key thing for me is that knowing nothing else about R & L running off, you would expect that a child would be likely to come of it. And then Ned finds L, and she appears to have just given birth and forces him to make a promise that haunts Ned.

What's the most likely explanation? Obviously it's that there was a child involved, and she asked Ned to do something relating to that child.

We then actually have a major character raised by Ned with mysterious parentage and various prophecy stuff that seems to apply to him. Hard to imagine that there's a likelier candidate for that mystery child than him.

Well think of it this way, too: Jon is clearly, along with Dany and Tyrion, one of the principle players in the story. There's too much, for lack of a better term, going on there for him to be "just" the result of Ned Stark banging a wet nurse.

And if Jon's mother was anyone but Lyanna, Ned would have absolutely no reason to keep it a secret from anyone, either Jon or Catelyn. If it was Wylla, there's absolutely no political danger in admitting it. If it was Ashara, same situation: no political danger, because she's dead (officially, anyway). The only reason Ned could possibly have for keeping such a tight lid on Jon's mother's identity is if the truth could be dangerous if it was found out. The fewer people that know, the better, and the easier it is to keep the story straight. Ned knows, Howland Reed knows, Wylla knows and Ashara, if she's alive, probably knows. That's it.

I also caught on, in A Game of Thrones, that internally (in his own mind), Ned never refers to Jon as his son. It's always "the boy." He'll call Jon his son to other people, like when they find the direwolves, but he never thinks of Jon as his own flesh-and-blood child. He loves him and has affection for him, but he's not his son. And when he tells Catelyn that Jon is "his blood," he's telling her as much of the truth as he dares.

[The Greatmatt]

Well think of it this way, too: Jon is clearly, along with Dany and Tyrion, one of the principle players in the story. There's too much, for lack of a better term, going on there for him to be "just" the result of Ned Stark banging a wet nurse.

And if Jon's mother was anyone but Lyanna, Ned would have absolutely no reason to keep it a secret from anyone, either Jon or Catelyn. If it was Wylla, there's absolutely no political danger in admitting it. If it was Ashara, same situation: no political danger, because she's dead (officially, anyway). The only reason Ned could possibly have for keeping such a tight lid on Jon's mother's identity is if the truth could be dangerous if it was found out. The fewer people that know, the better, and the easier it is to keep the story straight. Ned knows, Howland Reed knows, Wylla knows and Ashara, if she's alive, probably knows. That's it.

I also caught on, in A Game of Thrones, that internally (in his own mind), Ned never refers to Jon as his son. It's always "the boy." He'll call Jon his son to other people, like when they find the direwolves, but he never thinks of Jon as his own flesh-and-blood child. He loves him and has affection for him, but he's not his son. And when he tells Catelyn that Jon is "his blood," he's telling her as much of the truth as he dares.

I don't disagree with you on any of this, but if Tyrion ends up a Targ and the 3 mains end up the 3 dragonriders, I'm going to be irritated. There's something to be said for major characters not achieving maximum imaginable glory/joy. Given that Dany has the dragons, and that AA is presumably coming back, there's going to be some maximum-ing going on, but a mature story should have room for more pedestrian ends as well.

[LadyMary]

Think about this.

Jon being Ned's bastard son is a good cover story for him. In this case, you'd expect that Ned's wife would be cold to Jon.

If Ned's wife isn't cold to Jon, then people might start wondering why she isn't cold to Jon. Maybe she knows something about him that others do not. Then someone might start looking into what that secret might be. And they might realize that Jon came back to Winterfell with Ned, and the first place that Ned was seen with Jon was after he visited his sister at the Tower of Joy.

So while Catelyn being cold to Jon may not be the best thing in the world, it help preserve his cover, and keeps him safer.

GH

Agreed.

It would be "normal" for Catelyn to be resentful of Jon and not normal for her to be a loving step-mother under the circumstances. Thus it's less worthy of gossip... Ned bringing Jon home to Winterfell was gossip-worthy enough.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't disagree with you on any of this, but if Tyrion ends up a Targ and the 3 mains end up the 3 dragonriders, I'm going to be irritated. There's something to be said for major characters not achieving maximum imaginable glory/joy. Given that Dany has the dragons, and that AA is presumably coming back, there's going to be some maximum-ing going on, but a mature story should have room for more pedestrian ends as well.

I don't think Tyrion is a Targaryen, especially given that Martin said that you don't have to be Targaryen to be one of the three heads of the dragon. People have convinced themselves that Tyrion is half-Targ, but I don't believe it, namely because we're so obviously being led that way.

[corbon]

but I don't believe it, namely because we're so obviously being led that way.

:rofl:

So obvious that a recent poster in the Tyrion a Targaryen thread complained that is it turned out true it would be one of the worst Asspulls he'd ever seen or read.

The weakness of the theory is that it is so very subtly hinted at.

[kg1982]

First, I think that Catelyn-Jon's relationship is filtered through the lenses of a 14-year-old boy who has a huge chip on his shoulder and spends quite a bit of time sulking. Catelyn wasn't actually nice to him and the scene in Bran's bedroom was awful, but Catelyn also whines about people that she is actually related to quite a bit as well. She spends quite a bit of time criticizing her brother and even annoys her beloved son with her "advice." Catelyn is just a whiny person in general. Secondly, Jon had a quite nice childhood compared to many other children we meet in the book. Growing up in Winterfell and getting the same upbringing as Ned Stark's legitimate children is a much than running around the free cities and being raised by a crazy abusive brother. The whole reason for his arc in GOT is the point out that he had it alot better than 99% of Westros did, other noble children and Targaryen heirs included.

[7V3N]

I am at the end of SoS, when Stannis is at the Wall, he specifically says to Jon Snow that he has Eddard's look. I know this can easily be countered by saying Lyanna was a Stark herself, but why would GRRM show every sign that Jon is Eddard's son. We may be looking too far into Jon's origin. Of course, this may be stupid because I am just about to start A Feast for Crows.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I am at the end of SoS, when Stannis is at the Wall, he specifically says to Jon Snow that he has Eddard's look. I know this can easily be countered by saying Lyanna was a Stark herself, but why would GRRM show every sign that Jon is Eddard's son. We may be looking too far into Jon's origin. Of course, this may be stupid because I am just about to start A Feast for Crows.

I'd argue that the only sign that Jon is Ned's son is Ned's word saying he is.

[The Greatmatt]

I am at the end of SoS, when Stannis is at the Wall, he specifically says to Jon Snow that he has Eddard's look. I know this can easily be countered by saying Lyanna was a Stark herself, but why would GRRM show every sign that Jon is Eddard's son. We may be looking too far into Jon's origin. Of course, this may be stupid because I am just about to start A Feast for Crows.

Well, I think the key thing here is where in the crossword puzzle you start from. Viewing Ned from the outside in, Jon as his son is clearly the most likely interpretation. If we didn't have his internal thoughts, it would indeed be crackpot territory to come to believe that that background isn't "special" enough for Jon.

But we do have access to Ned's internal thoughts, and they give us mysteries to ponder, and viewed from that lens Jon as Lyanna's son is clearly the most likely interpretation. And interestingly enough, when then you go back and check whether this new theory fits in the puzzle slot given the clues that made you think Jon was Ned's son, no contradictions emerge.

He's about the age Lyanna's son would have to be.

Lyanna would make him look Stark as easily as Ned would.

Ned mysteriously has a tendency to not call Jon his son while he treats him like his son.

The danger of the secret would make it understandable why Ned doesn't tell Jon the truth even when he knows he may never see him again. (Seriously, never being willing to tell your son about his mother is STRANGE behavior.)

So for me, counterarguments against R+L=J have to come from the point of tightest constraint, which has to do with the promise to Lyanna. I've yet to see any other candidate at all for what promise she would have made Ned keep that would have left him racked with guilt and angst a decade and a half later.

Consider also that GRRM makes a big deal about that secret. If it doesn't turn out to be something important in the series, that's simply bad writing. We're several books into what will theoretically be a 7 book series filled to the brim with foreshadowing. If the secret was something else, wouldn't we have seen some hints along those lines by now?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

^ All of this, basically.

I'll just add the rhetorical question: If Jon's mother is Wylla or Ashara, why couldn't Ned just come out and say so? There is absolutely nothing about either of them that could, would or should prevent Ned from telling Jon the truth about his mother, if one of them actually was his mother.

Whenever people try to write off Rhaegar and Lyanna, they never think to answer the above question.