[ ADwD Spoilers ] Jon Connington and Young Griff

[the Scorpion Knight]

As much as I love a good baby switch theory - and believe me I do love them, the more complicated the better - I think the most likely scenario will be that Varys simply took advantage of the opportunities of the situation.

Something like... Varys is visiting his friends Illyrio and Serra (a Blackfyre and possibly a relative of Varys). Serra has just had a baby boy, she is still bitter over the downfall of the Blackfyres, she is having a rant..."if it wasn't for those bloody Targaryens my son would be king!". Varys thinks..."well that little Aegon, his head was beaten to a bloody pulp, no one could really identify who he was. Lets just say that in 17 years time, if a boy turned up claiming to be that dead baby, well, no one could confirm that he wasn't...Hey sweet sister Serra, let's make your little boy a star!"

So I think it will be most likely that Varys and Illyrio just took advantage of the circumstances and ran with the plan from there.

OR

Imagine that Varys and Illyrio had been planning a baby swap right from the beginning. Maybe right after Aegon is born Varys whispers poison into Rhaegar's ear, something about Aerys wanting to do harm to the baby. The ever helpful Varys suggests substituting Aegon with a common baby and taking Aegon into safe keeping with his very good and trusted friends across the narrow sea, just until Rhaegar can get his crazy dad sorted out. The plan being that once Rhaegar has disposed of Aerys, say after a few months or so, "Aegon" is returned to Rhaegar, only it is not really Aegon but Serra's Blackfyre baby who is approximately the same age as the real Aegon - putting a Blackfyre cuckoo into the Targaryen nest. Probably not, but still I do love a good baby swap theory!

your theorxy has a hole as wide the himalaya :

then why did varys fuel the paranioa of king aerys ?

[The Great Cornholio!]

Excellent point that I haven't seen so far. People are thinking in terms of, "Well of course it could be a switch, the kid's head was bashed in!" But that could also work in reverse — Varys knew after the fact that the child's head was bashed in and that, in hindsight, a switch would be seen as plausible. But it seems hard to believe that, at the time, a fake could have worked if Aegon had just been, say, smothered. The point about him being beaten to the point of being unrecognizable actually aids the idea of a fraud as much as if not more than the idea of a switch, if you believe that Varys was working backward.

This, too. Everyone during Robert's reign knew that Viserys and Dany were still alive and didn't really seem to care until it looked like the Dothraki were involved. In that case, why let everyone continue thinking the kid was dead? Like you said, it'd be easier to build up support for a Targaryen heir if everyone knows the heir is alive and has been alive. This secret business of brought-back-from-the-dead baby is only the kind of thing you pull when the kid you have isn't the real kid.

My point exactly. This sums up to me why Young Griff is a fake. Nobody knew Gregor was gonna go baby bashing that day.

If your concerned for the families safety, then smuggle them out. Vary's had to know before hand that Lannister forces were going to take the Red Keep. Using the hidden tunnels he could have smuggled them out. If not Elia at least Rhaenys and Aegon. I would want to have an heir and a spare for the type of plans he's got.

[Jem]

your theorxy has a hole as wide the himalaya :

then why did varys fuel the paranioa of king aerys ?

Hmmm...hardly as wide as the Himalayas, certainly nothing a little creative thinking wouldn't solve.

Maybe Varys was playing Aerys and Rhaegar off each other, whispering in both their ears that the other was out to get them. If you are trying to ruin a family, particularly a family that has a predisposition towards paranoia and madness, what better way to do it then to play up to each side, pit them against each other by making up false stories, and then stand back and watch them ruin themselves.

It's just a theory, if you don't like it I am happy for you to come up with your own.

[Bear Grylls of Skagos]

Can it be that Varys was castrated for being an abomination of incest?

The blackfyres have maintained their targ traits.So it is possible that they practiced incest too.

[Brucolac]

I don't think he made up the story about being castrated by a wizard/warlock.

[Ladywhiskers]

Those long list of titles made me laugh when she only ruled Meereen. Talk about having to feed your ego.

At least she's ruled someplace. And she's conquered, very cleverly I thought. She's lived through unbelievable tragedy and she's accomplished a few things. She's tried to abolish slavery, and she's grappled with a lot of people who were at least as smart as she was, if not smarter, and she's been learning things.

What's this Aegon done? Where's he ruled? What incredibly difficult, sensitive situations has he tried to figure out? What traitors or plots against him has he had to sniff out and quell? If it's a contest between which of these two would be a better ruler, well, for all of her naivete, Dany is the clear winner there.

Stack Aegon next to Stannis or Jon Snow and he fares even worse by comparison. Just about the only claimant who doesn't completely blow Aegon out of the water, is poor little Tommen.

[Red Rain]

if YG is a set-up then I believe it was almost definitely varys after all hasn't he always said he serves the realm he never said anything about the king or the targs and who better to rule then a boy trained from day one.

[Silent_Hero]

your theorxy has a hole as wide the himalaya :

then why did varys fuel the paranioa of king aerys ?

i personally believe Varys was pointing out the right people. I mean Aerys had a very well loved son and a better Hand than him and combined with the natural rebelling thats been in every rulership ever that would make a whole lot of people plotting.

[hiraeth]

Everything Varys and Illyrio do is fishy - that's why I think Aegon VI is a fake - I just can't believe they are motivated by something as noble as the well-being of the people in Westeros. IMO Aegon is a fake, a mummer's dragon - I think those two are after absolute power through a young and impressionable prince... Try as I might, I just can't see the two of them+Littlefinger doing something for the good of the whole realm...

[Aquaman]

My point exactly. This sums up to me why Young Griff is a fake. Nobody knew Gregor was gonna go baby bashing that day.

If your concerned for the families safety, then smuggle them out. Vary's had to know before hand that Lannister forces were going to take the Red Keep. Using the hidden tunnels he could have smuggled them out. If not Elia at least Rhaenys and Aegon. I would want to have an heir and a spare for the type of plans he's got.

Varys knew that the Lannister army had harmful intentions and tried to persuade Aerys to not let them in. That is perfect motivation to swap the heir with another child.

[Stubby]

[MOD]

There are three current threads dealing with whether the truth or otherwise of Young Griff's claim to Aegon.

I have made the arbitrary decision to leave the one with the most recent post active and this one is therefore closed.

[/MOD]