[Pre-ADwD Spoilers] Jon 2 - Spoilers for ADWD

[Ser Edmure of Coldstones]

Somehow I get the feeling the GRRM is placing more emphasis on Stannis in this book so that we can finally have him out of the picture, or nearly so.

I can't believe that GRRM would:

1) drag along such an undynamic character as Stannis. He has been been one of the more boring characters throughout, and althought that's not a reason in and of itself to eliminate him...

2) allow an obvious false prophet to exist near the end of the series. Clearly he is not going to rule the realm, and the North properly belongs to one of the 4 stark kids who are still running around. He is not the object of the prophecy, and as many mythologies/fantasies go, false prophets tend to die (or recant).

3) Allow such a poor tactician to win out the north. Jon's plan is good, but the best laid plans of mice and men... No matter what, Stannis has to devise his own strategies and win over the lords, which is tough for such a uncharismatic guy. I could just see an umber killing him halfway through ADWD and be happy with it.

So the question becomes, to what end is GRRM driving Stannis and Mel's characters? Clearly we don't have evidence of Dany stopping off at the North and burning Stannis with a dragon, so what is GRRM's endgame with stannis?

Any ideas?

[Mutethunder]

Actually I would like to see Stannis dead, and Jon somehow gain his army. I think STannis men has gone to far to just say to Cersei( or whoever is ruling at that point) "ok we give up". They would probably be sent to the wall anyway, or executed.

So Stannis die, Mel(just a hunch) gets the blame because they were making shadow babies at that time, Jon get army. Trades 100 men to get him out of NW(it's very unlike Jon, but it would be nice if it happened) and goes with his army to subdue boltons, make peace with Ironmen, secures the North. Learns from Theon somehow that Bran and Rickon is alive. Claim dreadfort as his own castle and winterfell for Bran.

ofcourse all of it ain't gonna happen, but Stannis is going to die because of him making shadowbabies. Maybe he'll do it so that the siege of dreadfort takes less time, like Storms end?

[Barba]

I don't think Stannis will die in ADWD. I don't think he will have much trouble with anyone in particular, either. FFC is about 3-4 months in expanse. In that time we didn't find out if Boltons acually won moat caitlin. I think Boltons will be occupied at the Moat, and we know stannis is heading towards Deepwood Mote, and with the host of wilding army and in hell of the winter his progress will be slow. We won't have a POV character with him, at least I don't think so. IMO we will see stannis only by the end of the book from Asha POV.

More interesting stuff will be happening at the wall. Wildings in Wall keeps, wildings beyond the wall, Black brothers, stannis' men and Mel's men. We might se the game of thrones on the wall. BTW I think Jon will be betrayed by his brothers and will be forced to escape.

[Ser Edmure of Coldstones]

That would be a very short stint as Lord Commander, indeed.

I think you are right, though, perhaps ADWD will be travel time for Stannis. I still don't think anyone has much an idea how long ADWD is supposed to span - perhaps not even GRRM. We know it takes place at the same time as AFFC, and may come back to POV's if he has time. I wonder if somehow he won't make a multi-year break within the book itself, but I can't think of a way he can write that without interupting the flow of the narratives. He may be trying (in this book) to set up a 3-4 year break at the end of the book, which would mean he would have to put all of the characters in a holding pattern by the end of ADWD so that characters like Bran can get past the ripe old age of 10.

[The Little Crannogman]

Sorry for dregding up an old thread, but I just read over it all and had to share my theories on what's gonna happen up north.

The North still has some strength left, but it's divided. The Umbers are torn with the Greatjon held hostage; the Boltons are traitors; who knows whose side the Karstarks are on these days; the Manderlys have some power left but they're clearly playing it safe. Above all, every bannerhouse sent away a large part of its strength, and none of those men are coming back; much of what has remained has been overrun by the ironmen. The Starks themselves, of course, are reduced to Arya (now very far away indeed), Bran who has other plans, Sansa who's caught in Littlefinger's web, and Rickon.

Where's Rickon bound? Well, Osha might make for White Harbor -- but more likely, I think, she'll go to Greywater Watch. I expect the Reed children gave her the idea.

The crannogmen are the only group that hasn't put forth its strength yet. Not that they have a lot, of course, but they're masters of their own domain... and they should not be underestimated. Howland Reed came out of the fight at the Tower of Joy when no one else did, and he was the one who saved Ned. Most important of all, I think, is that if Rickon winds up in Greywater, Howland Reed can guide him. Others have suggested this, of course, but I think the north will find a stronger rallying point in Rickon and Shaggy with Ned Stark's old war companion Howland guiding them, than in a Karstark put in Winterfell by Stannis.

[Guest Other-in-law]

This is as good a place as any to post this, but the talk of whether or not the Umbers would or should accept King Stannis, reminds me of the irony of their original decision to elevate King Robb, in aGoT. When his claim was proposed, the Greatjon dismissed it with:

"What does Stannis know about the Wall?!"

indicating a disinterest in wasting northern blood on faraway Kings who have little or no concern for the welfare of the North. Well, by the end of aSoS, I think it's safe to say that Stannis knows quite a lot about the Wall; more than any other King and probably the Greatjon, too.

[artimus_q]

And just because no kings ever imposed on the Night's Watch like this before (that we know of, anyway), doesn't mean that it isn't in their rights. Jon isn't independant of the realm simply because he's Lord Commander. He serves the realm, and thus the king.

You know I have been wondering about that very subject since AGoT, and still I would like to know what the NW charter says about things like this. I mean is the LC of the NW a subject of the King. How seperate and independent are they? What are the Kings responsibilty to the NW? I know they mention several times that the King has certain duties and responsibilities to the NW. It seems to me that in the past Kings of Westeros were much more active in the goings on of the NW.

[lokisnow]

Where's Rickon bound?

well Greywater Watch initially, but I imagine he gets ferretted off to Bear Island when Maege also shows up there.

[urizen]

well Greywater Watch initially, but I imagine he gets ferretted off to Bear Island when Maege also shows up there.

I dobut that unless of course a rebellion with Rickon as figurehead is brewing. Greywater watch is much safer for Rickon than Bear Island. Bear Island could conviceably be attacked by wildlings, Stannis and Bolton while the Mormonts don't have the strength to repel a serious invasion. Greywater Watch on the other hand is hard to find and the crannogmen seems to be disregarded as important by most people. the perfect place to hide Rickon until the time he can make an impression.

[Mezeh]

Where gone Osha with Rickon is not an easy guess. Rickon should be well separated from Bran and he need safe place where no one will likely find him. And don’t forget about his pet. Rickon by himself is but a small boy nobody will pay much attention but he could not be separated from his wolf that is obviously will draw unwanted attention.

Basically this excludes almost all remaining north lords from possible refuge list.

Now what remains?

Graywater watch seems to be the most favorite theory however there some troubles. It’s not likely that Osha ever was south of Winterfell and Graywater watch is very far to south so it will be very difficult to her to avoid attention on long way. Second she surely don’t know crannogmen and it will be difficult to find way inside. Third it wouldn’t be the best place for Rickon wolf among the bogs.

Bear Isle is not a bad place since it isolated and Mormonts seem to be loyal to Starks but how to get there? In order to reach Baer Isle Osha have to take approximately the same route and Bran with his companions and this will not be wise. The sea is plagues with ironmen so ferry to Bear Island will be dangerous as well. And besides Osha doesn’t know Mormonts.

Now what remains? Osha accustomed with north she is wilding after all but place beyond the Wall is already taken by Bran. Is there is a place that similar to Beyond the Wall? Actually there is one – Skagos. It’s inhabitants don’t differ much from wildings so they won’t react to direwolf. Skagos is well isolated and will become even more isolated when winter will began. It’s loosely connected with the rest of the North and there was rebellion a hundred years ago but they know Starks well and must honor them like Starks honored by wildings so they will most probably welcome Stark boy among them. And after all they have reputation and fierce warriors and Rickon is a fierce child so they could rise him as a fierce warrior and this is exactly what Rickon is about to become.

[sh_wulff]

Skagos is well isolated and will become even more isolated when winter will began

well that's the first time i heard of this

does not sound out there loopy either

waiting impatiently for ADWD to come out

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

Didn't Stannis say that he saw in the fires that he would die fighting the Others. I think that's how he's going to die. A noble death where his sacrifice buys the time for the NW to retreat.

[Barba]

Didn't Stannis say that he saw in the fires that he would die fighting the Others. I think that's how he's going to die. A noble death where his sacrifice buys the time for the NW to retreat.

Where? I don't remember this

[The Scabbard Of the Morning]

It's the passage where Davos tries to talk of out of sacrifice Edric Storm, and Stannis tells him that he knows the price is high but he himself will pay a even higher price, and that he saw a King consumed by flames in his vision, and presumes that it is himself, and that the coming conflict will kill him.

[Barba]

Now that would be cool death for such a cool guy.

Personally, I think Dany will be little late, and wall will be breached. I sure hope he will die then

[Jon Targaryen]

It's the passage where Davos tries to talk of out of sacrifice Edric Storm, and Stannis tells him that he knows the price is high but he himself will pay a even higher price, and that he saw a King consumed by flames in his vision, and presumes that it is himself, and that the coming conflict will kill him.

I thought he saw Viserys.

[MattTaz]

When Stannis saw himself consumed by flames I though of his health.

To start with he has a clenched jaw, later it's his neck as well and come SoS it;s his face, neck and right arm.

The guy is a walking heart attack and I think Melisandra has made it worse with her shadow babies.

Given we've seen Kings, stabbed, poisoned, thrown from a walkway etc, an actual physical sickness may be a change.

[BabberSher]

Hi people, this is my first post (thanks for all the information and spoilers... they really helped me through the long book gaps)

Ok, so Greatjon Umber is ALIVE?!?!! This could be very important in that he is the only survivor who had witnessed Robb actually proclaiming Jon Snow as his official heir in "A Storm of Swords". This has to be the reason why Martin kept him alive - and - the reason why the Freys didn't kill him... any thoughts? (Sure.. Catelyn was present, too... but she didn't care much for Jon)

Jon said he was no Stark, and he didn't want to become Lord of Winterfell because it wasn't his place... but if he found out that Robb had proclaimed him his heir - something might happen as a result of this (at least until Bran or Rickon comes back). Maybe, after Greatjon's release, the Umbers will go to Jon & as Robb's heir... Jon could command them to aid him on the wall (he will have the authority to raise the Silver Direwolf banners ---> this could unite the North once more against the Others, making it easier on Bran to rule the North when he comes back)... I don't know, just thought this might be important.

[Jughead of the Round]

Arkan,

Maybe, after Greatjon's release, the Umbers will go to Jon & as Robb's heir... Jon could command them to aid him on the wall

Yeah, I agree that something along these lines could happen. I see the Umbers secretly recognizing Jon as their King, and Jon refusing to lead them (because of his vows to the Watch), but saying if they wanted to help, they could assist in defending the Wall. Of course, this would all happen after the Greatjon was released.

This could be very important in that he is the only survivor who had witnessed Robb actually proclaiming Jon Snow as his official heir in "A Storm of Swords".

Edmure Tully was also there, though he seems to have given up the good fight now by living out his life as a Lannister hostage with his wife. Lord Glover and Lady Mormont were also witnesses, and are somewhere around Greywater Watch. I believe they have the copy of Robb's letter.

[BabberSher]

Arkan,

Yeah, I agree that something along these lines could happen. I see the Umbers secretly recognizing Jon as their King, and Jon refusing to lead them (because of his vows to the Watch), but saying if they wanted to help, they could assist in defending the Wall. Of course, this would all happen after the Greatjon was released.

Edmure Tully was also there, though he seems to have given up the good fight now by living out his life as a Lannister hostage with his wife. Lord Glover and Lady Mormont were also witnesses, and are somewhere around Greywater Watch. I believe they have the copy of Robb's letter.

Interesting stuff... Thanks for the quick reply.

I forgot about Lady Mormont… I wish Sam was still on the wall, it would’ve been a nice if Sam could tell Lady Mormont of Lord Mormont’s dying words ---> and somehow Lady Mormont relaying the message to Jorah (Just kinda feel bad for the guy).