[TWoW Spoilers] Arianne I

[Wouter]

I'm of the belief that Margaery ends up being executed by the Faith for adultery and her brother ends up being executed with her ala Anne Boleyn, I frankly think that the High Sparrow thinks that right is on his side and won't be deterred by an army, but it does prevent the Tyrells from staging a rescue attempt. Diverting the army suggests that that plot point will happen and that there will be fighting in the streets of King's Landing when the Tyrell army doesn't arrive in time to save Margaery.

I think that is what probably breaks the Tyrell siege of Storm's End and King's Landing welcomes Aegon due to the bloodshed in the streets. I expect fakeAegon to become king for a while, but things to start going really badly for him with plagues and famine.

At this time, there is no Tyrell siege of Storm's End and Jon Connington is apparently planning to meet the Tyrell army in the field, so there may not even be a siege at all anymore (though it could be Connington loses but is able to withdraw in the castle, in which case there would be a siege again).

The High Sparrow is a zealot but he also has proven to take practical considerations into account; he wants Tommens edict concerning the Faith's armies to stand, and he needs Tommen to remain king for that. That entails keeping the support of the Tyrells and not convicting Cersei of incest. So, I don't think he won't be deterred; if he makes enemies out of the Tyrells, everything he has reached under Tommen is for naught (Aegon hasn't promised him anything and could undo everything Tommen did).

Moreover, Margaery is in the Red Keep surrounded by Gold Cloaks and Tyrell guardsmen, and the latter won't all leave - a few hundred or so won't make much difference for Tyrell armies numbering in the tens of thousands with all their levies. If the Faith wants to take and execute her, they'll have to cut a path through those guards and thus effectively declare war on the Reach. Tommen can impossibly stay king after that, and the likely Tyrell reaction would be to negotiate a settlement with Aegon enabling them to take revenge on the Faith and smash the Sparrows and co.

[kg1982]

Well.. there is a big wildcard in the mix named Varys. It would be in Varys interest to add some more fuel to the fire concerning the Tyrells, so why not lodge some new allegations against Margaery, have her convicted and executed for them, and increase tensions to the 11. Plus, he has two accomplices named Nymeria and Tyene who can unwittingly help him out. While they are accusing Margaery of treason, they can even assure the High Sparrow that fakeAegon will provide him with the same protection as he is well versed in the Faith and an ardent follower of the Seven. It is a win-win for the High Sparrow; he gets the protections promised by Cersei as well as getting a pious upright young king rather than the awful fornicating, sinful women he has to deal with right now. The only thing that might prevent the execution in that scenario is a Tyrell rescue. Well... if the Tyrells are dealing with the Golden Company, then they cannot rescue Margaery in time.

[longlivestark]

There is a limit to what Vary's can do, he was only able to get into the Tower of the Hand because of his knowledge of tunnels. He has already lit the fuse, now he is probably hoping it will keep going and explode.

[kg1982]

Varys has Tyene and Nymeria to help him out now, especially since Arianne seems to be siding with fakeAegon.

[1000th LC of the NW]

It's entirely probable that we will see the end of House Lannister and House Baratheon if/when Aegon takes the throne, and quite possibly House Stark (although I could see a pardon for the Starks, since Ned's actions were a direct result of his family being murdered/"kidnapped").

At the very least, Sansa would not be a very desirable bride. Lets not forget that she's technically Sansa Lannister.

[Clash]

It's entirely probable that we will see the end of House Lannister and House Baratheon if/when Aegon takes the throne, and quite possibly House Stark (although I could see a pardon for the Starks, since Ned's actions were a direct result of his family being murdered/"kidnapped").

I'm not sure Aegon will ever actually take the Iron Throne. I've always felt that Maggy the Frog's prophecy referred to Dany and not Margaery, a delicious irony in my mind that Cersei spent all her energy and almost her life trying to protect herself from the wrong threat.

So for Cersei to be 'cast down' she has still to remain in control of the Iron Throne until Dany arrives. This may mean that Margaery must die in order for Cersei to be in a fools paradise until the dragons darken the sky over Kings Landing :)

[dreamcatcher]

The fact that Aegon conquered Storm's end so quickly makes me hope that TWoW will be a faster-paced book. :thumbsup: This sounds like something from the first three books and it's thrilling.

[Vympel]

It's entirely probable that we will see the end of House Lannister and House Baratheon if/when Aegon takes the throne, and quite possibly House Stark (although I could see a pardon for the Starks, since Ned's actions were a direct result of his family being murdered/"kidnapped").

Its one thing to declare the end of a House, another to make it so. House Lannister won't end unless Aegon invades the West and takes Casterly Rock.

In any event, this talk of Sansa marrying Aegon doesn't work for me at all. We know plans often get screwed over, but I like to think Sansa drawing the Vale around her through Harry the Heir (or someone else) to be something that pretty much has to happen. The Vale hasn't participated in this conflict at all.

Besides, I don't think Aegon will ever take the Iron Throne either. Or if he does, he won't sit on it long. He's nothing but a cloth, mummer's dragon, and Dany is the slayer of lies.

[longlivestark]

I'm not sure Aegon will ever actually take the Iron Throne. I've always felt that Maggy the Frog's prophecy referred to Dany and not Margaery, a delicious irony in my mind that Cersei spent all her energy and almost her life trying to protect herself from the wrong threat.

So for Cersei to be 'cast down' she has still to remain in control of the Iron Throne until Dany arrives. This may mean that Margaery must die in order for Cersei to be in a fools paradise until the dragons darken the sky over Kings Landing :)

I am starting to think Margaery will be the younger queen, but because of Cersei's own doing, like Cersei's friend only died because Cersei killed her, the only reason Margaery will be queen is by Cersei own doing. Then there is also the fact it doesn't look like Dany is going to show up for awhile, and by then Aegon could hold the throne, of course he will then lose it when the Others invade.

[Wouter]

Well.. there is a big wildcard in the mix named Varys. It would be in Varys interest to add some more fuel to the fire concerning the Tyrells, so why not lodge some new allegations against Margaery, have her convicted and executed for them, and increase tensions to the 11. Plus, he has two accomplices named Nymeria and Tyene who can unwittingly help him out. While they are accusing Margaery of treason, they can even assure the High Sparrow that fakeAegon will provide him with the same protection as he is well versed in the Faith and an ardent follower of the Seven. It is a win-win for the High Sparrow; he gets the protections promised by Cersei as well as getting a pious upright young king rather than the awful fornicating, sinful women he has to deal with right now. The only thing that might prevent the execution in that scenario is a Tyrell rescue. Well... if the Tyrells are dealing with the Golden Company, then they cannot rescue Margaery in time.

The Tyrells have enormous armies, as I have mentioned twice in this thread. They can perfectly send a large army to deal with Aegon and keep a sizable force at KL to protect Margaery as well, and Mace surely will not neglect to protect his precious daughter. He knows Cersei wants her dead, that the High Septon is an unpredictable zealot with a hatred of young maidens and he knows that people are getting assassinated left and right in KL. No way is he going to leave her unprotected at KL. There is no rescue needed if Margaery is safely protected by plenty of Tyrell swords to start with. A small matter is also that Margaery has already been falsely accused and the High septon knows this; more false accusations from Varys wouldn't be any more credible and probably be blamed on further Cersei scheming anyway.

Tyene and Nymeria are not in league with Varys; they act on orders from Doran, and Varys has always left Doran in the cold about his plots (probably exactly because Aegon is fake, and he did not want Martell interference with his own power grabbing). Whether Aegon is willing to go along with Cersei's promises is also doubtful; most potential kings would not want an armed faith if they can avoid it, it was a Targaryen king who outlawed those religious militias in the first place.

In any event, this talk of Sansa marrying Aegon doesn't work for me at all. We know plans often get screwed over, but I like to think Sansa drawing the Vale around her through Harry the Heir (or someone else) to be something that pretty much has to happen. The Vale hasn't participated in this conflict at all.

It can't happen though, as long as Sansa remains married to Tyrion and getting rid of that will be very difficult until the regime in KL changes to one of LF's liking (not sure if Aegon would be, and I suspect LF is aware of Dany and may wait till her arrival to really play his cards).

Sansa could potentially gain support from (a lot of) the Vale in her own right though, by making common cause with Bronze Yohn (openly as Sansa) and/or by gaining the trust of Sweetrobin, who isn't dead yet and the lawful lord of the Vale until further notice.

[skins7778]

I don't see a big chance of Aegon marrying Arianne, her name was brought up as a match for Connington if I remember correctly not for Aegon. Its Dany or bust in my opinion because of the lack of options. Margery is currently accused oftreason and is married not to mention those other two marriages that ended badly. Sansa is effectivley to the world missing and if and when she resurfaces there is the whole pesky Sansa Lannister issue. What other highborn ladies are available? Asha? ...... not a chance plus she's married. Shireen is a monster, half of Myrcella's face is scarred thanks to god awful Dorkstar. I realize that through political wrangling Sansa or Margery could become available but the simple move is wait for Dany. Oddly enough she will finally show up just in time to somehow get rid of Aegon the mummers dragon and marry someone else.

[kg1982]

I'm not sure Aegon will ever actually take the Iron Throne. I've always felt that Maggy the Frog's prophecy referred to Dany and not Margaery, a delicious irony in my mind that Cersei spent all her energy and almost her life trying to protect herself from the wrong threat.

So for Cersei to be 'cast down' she has still to remain in control of the Iron Throne until Dany arrives. This may mean that Margaery must die in order for Cersei to be in a fools paradise until the dragons darken the sky over Kings Landing

The younger queen is most definitely Dany. The one thing that we know about prophecies is that everyone tends to interpret them wrong. Cersei thinks it is Margaery, but Margaery really isn't a threat to her at all. What Margaery is doing isn't any more threatening than Michelle Obama listening to kids reading at an inner city public school. That Cersei doesn't get that simple PR idea means that she is really stupid.

The Tyrells have enormous armies, as I have mentioned twice in this thread. They can perfectly send a large army to deal with Aegon and keep a sizable force at KL to protect Margaery as well, and Mace surely will not neglect to protect his precious daughter. He knows Cersei wants her dead, that the High Septon is an unpredictable zealot with a hatred of young maidens and he knows that people are getting assassinated left and right in KL. No way is he going to leave her unprotected at KL. There is no rescue needed if Margaery is safely protected by plenty of Tyrell swords to start with. A small matter is also that Margaery has already been falsely accused and the High septon knows this; more false accusations from Varys wouldn't be any more credible and probably be blamed on further Cersei scheming anyway.

It is a fictional army. If George Martin wants to shift the Tyrell army away from King's Landing in order to increase the tension surrounding Margaery and to lead to her demise, then I think that he will. I just cannot see Margaery surviving the series; she is a likable supporting character, just the sort that Martin likes killing off. Having her executed by the Faith serves some important story purposes. First, the Faith is one of the Chekov guns that have to be resolved in the next two books; there has to be bigger consequences to the renewed zealotry and Cersei's decision to allow the Faith to rearm other than Cersei's slut walk. Having Margaery executed serves that. Cersei won't be executed because the prophecy suggests that Jaime kills her. Second, it makes it easy for FakeAegon to waltz in and take over the Iron Throne. The mummer's dragon is loudly proclaimed as a hero. I think that Aegon ends up winning earlier than we may expect in TWOW, but then things go south for him.

Tyene and Nymeria are not in league with Varys; they act on orders from Doran, and Varys has always left Doran in the cold about his plots (probably exactly because Aegon is fake, and he did not want Martell interference with his own power grabbing). Whether Aegon is willing to go along with Cersei's promises is also doubtful; most potential kings would not want an armed faith if they can avoid it, it was a Targaryen king who outlawed those religious militias in the first place.

There are lots of things that could complicate the situation with the Sand Snakes, such as Doran dying, which could lead to Tyene and Nym becoming free agents. They could become useful pawns for Varys. Additionally, it seems based on reading reports that Arianne may forge an alliance with fakeAegon (and by alliance, I mean seduce him).

As for keeping the Faith rearmed, Varys only has to give the High Septon that promise; it doesn't mean that fakeAegon has to go through with the promise.

[Nightstar]

I don't see a big chance of Aegon marrying Arianne, her name was brought up as a match for Connington if I remember correctly not for Aegon. Its Dany or bust in my opinion because of the lack of options. Margery is currently accused oftreason and is married not to mention those other two marriages that ended badly. Sansa is effectivley to the world missing and if and when she resurfaces there is the whole pesky Sansa Lannister issue. What other highborn ladies are available? Asha? ...... not a chance plus she's married. Shireen is a monster, half of Myrcella's face is scarred thanks to god awful Dorkstar. I realize that through political wrangling Sansa or Margery could become available but the simple move is wait for Dany. Oddly enough she will finally show up just in time to somehow get rid of Aegon the mummers dragon and marry someone else.

I believe Aegon's best match would be Shireen, scarred or not.

She is Stannis' sole heir, he is unlikely to have another while Selyse lives.

I think he might do a deal with Aegon and step aside provided his daughter became queen.

[King Stannis]

Aegon needs to die and get out of the series. He was introduced way too late in the game with NO foreshadowing

[Galen M]

Aegon needs to die and get out of the series. He was introduced way too late in the game with NO foreshadowing

there was lots of foreshadowing for him. The concept of the Mummer's dragon was introduced in Clash.

[Urien the Ragged]

i really don't see how aegon could be a fake. he has the targaryen features. if he wasn't a targaryen, varys would have gotten extremely lucky with how he turned out in terms of appearance.

[History of Westeros]

there was lots of foreshadowing for him. The concept of the Mummer's dragon was introduced in Clash.

Agree. This has been foreshadowed since the House of the Undying or thereabouts.

To be fair it was very subtle, and unspecific. Very easy to miss or to interpret otherwise.

[Wouter]

The younger queen is most definitely Dany. The one thing that we know about prophecies is that everyone tends to interpret them wrong. Cersei thinks it is Margaery, but Margaery really isn't a threat to her at all. What Margaery is doing isn't any more threatening than Michelle Obama listening to kids reading at an inner city public school. That Cersei doesn't get that simple PR idea means that she is really stupid.

There is nothing definite about this; Margaery, Dany and even Sansa are all still viable candidates.

I don't understand how you can dismiss Margaery as a non-threat, when she has already brought great harm to Cersei. Margaery was involved in or sometimes directly responsible for:

-killing Joffrey

-competing for influence over Tommen, who has grown very fond of Margaery to Cersei's distress

-removing Cersei from the position of queen-regent, ironically exactly because Cersei took action against Margaery that backfired big time on her

-by the same token, the "walk of shame" was indirectly brough upon her by the "duel" with Margaery

-and Cersei is increasingly losing Jaime, and the truth about the Kettleblacks came out again due to her attempt to bring Margaery down

All in all, Cersei may be self-fulfilling the prophecy by the way she attempts to bring Margaery down. Her fixation on Marge may end up costing her everything; she is lucky enough that Varys murdering Kevan may bring her back in a position of power within the Lannister hierarchy and Ser Robert Strong will let her escape her trial. Still, she is in a bad position as she needs the Tyrell swords to protect Tommen from Aegon yet she wants to remove them from power at the same time.

That's not to say it can't be Dany, but Margaery (and to a lesser extent Sansa, who was at least involved in Joffrey's death) has a good headstart on her as far as taking things Cersei cares about goes. Will there be anything left for Dany to take from Cersei by the time she finally arrives in Westeros? Maybe Casterly Rock I suppose, but we'll see what happens.

Having her executed by the Faith serves some important story purposes. First, the Faith is one of the Chekov guns that have to be resolved in the next two books; there has to be bigger consequences to the renewed zealotry and Cersei's decision to allow the Faith to rearm other than Cersei's slut walk. Having Margaery executed serves that. Cersei won't be executed because the prophecy suggests that Jaime kills her. Second, it makes it easy for FakeAegon to waltz in and take over the Iron Throne. The mummer's dragon is loudly proclaimed as a hero. I think that Aegon ends up winning earlier than we may expect in TWOW, but then things go south for him.

It could well be Margaery is killed (or Tommen, another thing which would mean the end of the Tyrell-Lannister alliance) so Aegon gets a quick win by default - I agree the mummer's drafon will be applauded as shown in the house of the undying (though taking Storm's End is already a measure of success, we will see how far it goes - could go all the way to KL I guess, but it remains to be seen).

However, Mace leaving Marge unprotected would be wildly out of character and thus bad writing. If she is killed, it may be Varys' doing instead (he seems to be able to assassinate inside the Red Keep almost at will) or the work of the presumably nigh-unstoppable killing machine "Ser Robert Strong". Though Cersei would have to be mad to kill Margaery that way, maybe she is mad enough.

There are lots of things that could complicate the situation with the Sand Snakes, such as Doran dying, which could lead to Tyene and Nym becoming free agents. They could become useful pawns for Varys. Additionally, it seems based on reading reports that Arianne may forge an alliance with fakeAegon (and by alliance, I mean seduce him).

If Doran dies, the allegiance of Tyene and Nym would switch to Arianne (who is not only Doran's heir, they are close to her as well), who is also not in league with Varys until further notice. Arianna (and Doran, for that matter) may well chose to forge an alliance with Aegon, but even so they wouldn't exactly be in Varys' camp especially if Aegon is not who Varys says he is (he would be effectively be a con artist toward Dorne).

i really don't see how aegon could be a fake. he has the targaryen features. if he wasn't a targaryen, varys would have gotten extremely lucky with how he turned out in terms of appearance.

Illyrio's own wife, a girl from Lys, had Targaryen coloring. So does Ashara Dayne (well, only the eyes, but Barristan thought Dany could be Ashara's daughter by appearance), though she is entirely unrelated to them. Then there are some leftover Valyrians like the Velaryons (remember Aurane Waters, which was theorised to become the "mummers dragon" after AFFC). And of course, there is the offspring of Targaryen branches like those of prince "Aerion Brightflame" who fought as a mercenary in the free cities, and last but not least we have some surviving offspring of the female line of the Blackfyres.

Hell, the girl with Jorah in the whorehouse in Selhorys has Targaryen coloring and no doubt looked a bit like Dany does.

All in all, plenty of possibilities for a man like Illyrio to find a child with the correct colouring. He already has access to a number of children to supply Varys with "little birds".

[skins7778]

The way I see it playing out with Cersei's prophecy is with Dany being the younger queen. It wouldn't surprise me to see Cersei held up in Maegors holdfast while under seige by Aegon while Dany makes her Westeros appearance by joining the fight and melting it down similiar to Harrenhal. It was a younger and more beautiful queen and while pretty, Marge isn't described as better looking than Cersei while Dany has been mentioned as the most beautiful girl in the world.

[Davos' Middle Finger]

Illyrio's own wife, a girl from Lys, had Targaryen coloring. So does Ashara Dayne (well, only the eyes, but Barristan thought Dany could be Ashara's daughter by appearance), though she is entirely unrelated to them. Then there are some leftover Valyrians like the Velaryons (remember Aurane Waters, which was theorised to become the "mummers dragon" after AFFC). And of course, there is the offspring of Targaryen branches like those of prince "Aerion Brightflame" who fought as a mercenary in the free cities, and last but not least we have some surviving offspring of the female line of the Blackfyres.

Hell, the girl with Jorah in the whorehouse in Selhorys has Targaryen coloring and no doubt looked a bit like Dany does.

All in all, plenty of possibilities for a man like Illyrio to find a child with the correct colouring. He already has access to a number of children to supply Varys with "little birds".

We haven't actually had confirmation that there is a female line of the Blackfyres still around. Very possible though.

We do know that Aerion Brightflame left at least one legitimate child (who was considered at the Great Council) as well as several bastards from his time in the Free Cities.

My personal theory is that Serra is a descendant of Aerion and that YG is her son by Illyrio.