[TWoW Spoilers] Arianne I

[ARYa_Nym]

And this was before her character decided to become Doran part II after the "Fire and Blood" scene. Her character has obviously changed. I think you may have missed how she acted in Dance.

No he doesn't.

He will probably have wed someone long before Dany gets to Westeros.

She spurned Dorne.

She isn't going to give a damn about Sansa being Ned's daughter. She doesn't hold sins against children. And she will have to ally with some people who fought against her father, or she can't win.

The North does not matter, read my post above. Sansa brings the Vale because it will be Littlefinger who is exploiting her for alliance purposes. Sansa isn't going to be the one who logically proposes this match. The Vale is one of the two strongest armies in Westeros.

Yes she can because of Littlefinger, who is nominal Lord Paramount. LF's problem is that the Riverlords have no loyalty to him but if he is suddenly revealing he has been Sansa's guardian angel and proposing rebellion against the loathed Lannisters, he will rally the Riverlands with absolute ease. Edmure is irrelevant - the Riverlords cannot rally behind him. Sansa will be used to rally the Riverlands by Littlefinger regardless of whether she marries Aegon or Harry or whoever, you can bet on that.

The Vale will be LF's no matter what happens as long as he has Sansa - he's already winning them over, once he reveals himself as Sansa's protector they will be his entirely. Jon Arryn fighting Aerys means nothing to whether they'd ally with Aegon - it's Lannisters they hate.

Connington obviously wasn't aware of the facts and the situation will change. I don't see why he would refuse Littlefinger if Sansa was offered and Dany is not an option. Sansa is the total opposite of Quentyn - Quentyn had two knights. Sansa will bring with her the biggest army out there. Also one that is perfectly positioned to put King's Landing in a pincer movement.

Even if one doesn't think Sansa+YG is probable (which for the reasons I mention in my posts here, I do think it's probable) it is still very possible. Again - Sansa is literally the 2nd most politically and military valuable bride in the world. Aegon cannot possibly do better than her if Dany is ruled out. And it's also hard to see why Littlefinger wouldn't jump at this opportunity because it makes him the most powerful lord in the realm, for much less risk than he'd face trying to fight a rebellion on his own. And LF is without question planning a rebellion of some kind - but avoiding Stannis as king is the entire reason he betrayed Ned and he won't view Dany as a potential ally once news of her marriage comes. His only options are going it alone (in which case he'd have to fight the eventual winner of the Lannister/YG war) or declaring for YG. Allying with YG is easily the most logical move for him and Sansa is his means for this.

She spurned Dorne because she wanted Spears right at that moment just as Connington wants them right away. She had battles to fight in Mereen not Westeros. Quentyn could not immediately help her so she turned down his offer.

Yes YG will marry someone and I think it's likely that this person will be Arianne. She is going to him first. Why would Doran not support his heir especially when he finds out that his son Quentyn is dead? Doran has one foot in the grave and he now only has 2 children to leave behind him.

I'm not understanding why Doran doesn't have to support his heir Arianne but supporting Aegon the Pretender is a given? I'm sure he will ask why was Dorne not informed of the baby switch until now.

The Riverlands can barely act for themselves. Like I said it's overrun with Freys and Lannisters. They can't get rid of them but they have the power to join the fight against KL? I don't see it.

The Vale will be LF's as long as his plans go through. SweetRobin dies and Sansa and Harry have an heir. Until then his plans can go wrong.

Sansa is also wanted for regicide. She has to undo it. She can get the marriage annulled but Varys prevented Tyrion from dying so they will have to prove that the marriage wasn't consumated. It's not impossible to do but it will take time. The High Septon thinks that she is a warg who worships the Old Gods so he doesn't think well of her.

It can be undone but not at the drop of a hat. YG needs someone who can immediately offer him something.

[Kadence]

She spurned Dorne because she wanted Spears right at that moment just as Connington wants them right away. She had battles to fight in Mereen not Westeros. Quentyn could not immediately help her so she turned down his offer.

And the Vale is obviously in Westeros. Not to mention perfectly located to invade the Crownlands. I have no idea where you are seeing a problem.

Yes YG will marry someone and I think it's likely that this person will be Arianne.

For all the reasons I have stated this is pretty unlikely. You can argue against Sansa but arguing in favor of Arianne is highly illogical.

Why would Doran not support his heir especially when he finds out that his son Quentyn is dead? Doran has one foot in the grave and he now only has 2 children to leave behind him.

Firstly again, it is a huge assumption that Arianne would want this. Second there is no way she acts without Doran's approval. Third if Arianne marries Aegon...they probably lose, it almost dooms them. They don't really have any way to rally other great houses. So it would be foolish for Connington, Doran and Arianne to do this from each of their perspectives.

You seem to have some great emotional attachment to Aegon+Arianne, but the characters just don't have a sensible motive for it.

I'm not understanding why Doran doesn't have to support his heir Arianne but supporting Aegon the Pretender is a given? I'm sure he will ask why was Dorne not informed of the baby switch until now.

They will definitely be suspicious but when news of Dany's wedding breaks they will rally for Aegon. Especially once news of Robert Strong arrives as well. Dorne is itching for rebellion and Connington will know it, he will have informers and everyone already know Dorne's allegiance to the throne is hanging on a thread.

The Riverlands can barely act for themselves. Like I said it's overrun with Freys and Lannisters. They can't get rid of them but they have the power to join the fight against KL? I don't see it.

They won't be alone, they'll have the Vale with them. This is one thing that is a given, so you are mistaken - Littlefinger will definitely use Sansa to rally much of the Riverlands no matter who he marries Sansa to or if she's unmarried.

The Vale will be LF's as long as his plans go through. SweetRobin dies and Sansa and Harry have an heir. Until then his plans can go wrong.

Well of course, all plans can go wrong (though I'm not sure why you believe Sansa+Harry having an heir means anything for LF's plans). But LF is clearly shoring up his grip on the Vale pretty tightly and once he announces Sansa and war against the Lannisters they will be in the palm of his hand. Again, this will be the situation whoever Sansa marries or even if she doesn't marry anybody.

Sansa is also wanted for regicide.

Of Joffrey, a hated Lannister (who I'm sure they will announce was a bastard and never rightful king anyway). Anyone that would rally for Littlefinger and/or Aegon's cause would probably consider this a good thing. This is a non-issue.

She can get the marriage annulled but Varys prevented Tyrion from dying so they will have to prove that the marriage wasn't consumated. It's not impossible to do but it will take time.

Yes but news of Dany will take a bit of time. In any case it isn't a major hurdle, it's probably why he hasn't sexed Sansa up yet. Her virginity should be easy to prove. Also remember Connington and LF don't actually need to get them married to seal the alliance - a betrothal/agreement is probably enough for alliance building purposes, no one would have motive to break such a pact. Once they conquer King's Landing annuling the marriage is easy as pie. Now if they can get Aegon+Sansa married beforehand of course that's a plus but doing so is probably not a big deal politically. The actual ceremony can be held in conjunction with Aegon's coronoation, or slightly after - the High Septon can be coerced at that point. A little provably unconsummated marriage isn't going to get in the way of game of thrones politics on this scale.

[ARYa_Nym]

And the Vale is obviously in Westeros. Not to mention perfectly located to invade the Crownlands. I have no idea where you are seeing a problem.

For all the reasons I have stated this is pretty unlikely. You can argue against Sansa but arguing in favor of Arianne is highly illogical.

Firstly again, it is a huge assumption that Arianne would want this. Second there is no way she acts without Doran's approval. Third if Arianne marries Aegon...they probably lose, it almost dooms them. They don't really have any way to rally other great houses. So it would be foolish for Connington, Doran and Arianne to do this from each of their perspectives.

You seem to have some great emotional attachment to Aegon+Arianne, but the characters just don't have a sensible motive for it.

They will definitely be suspicious but when news of Dany's wedding breaks they will rally for Aegon. Especially once news of Robert Strong arrives as well. Dorne is itching for rebellion and Connington will know it, he will have informers and everyone already know Dorne's allegiance to the throne is hanging on a thread.

They won't be alone, they'll have the Vale with them. This is one thing that is a given, so you are mistaken - Littlefinger will definitely use Sansa to rally much of the Riverlands no matter who he marries Sansa to or if she's unmarried.

Well of course, all plans can go wrong (though I'm not sure why you believe Sansa+Harry having an heir means anything for LF's plans). But LF is clearly shoring up his grip on the Vale pretty tightly and once he announces Sansa and war against the Lannisters they will be in the palm of his hand. Again, this will be the situation whoever Sansa marries or even if she doesn't marry anybody.

Of Joffrey, a hated Lannister (who I'm sure they will announce was a bastard and never rightful king anyway). Anyone that would rally for Littlefinger and/or Aegon's cause would probably consider this a good thing. This is a non-issue.

Yes but news of Dany will take a bit of time. In any case it isn't a major hurdle, it's probably why he hasn't sexed Sansa up yet. Her virginity should be easy to prove. Also remember Connington and LF don't actually need to get them married to seal the alliance - a betrothal/agreement is probably enough for alliance building purposes, no one would have motive to break such a pact. Once they conquer King's Landing annuling the marriage is easy as pie. Now if they can get Aegon+Sansa married beforehand of course that's a plus but doing so is probably not a big deal politically. The actual ceremony can be held in conjunction with Aegon's coronoation, or slightly after - the High Septon can be coerced at that point. A little provably unconsummated marriage isn't going to get in the way of game of thrones politics on this scale.

How is being wanted for regicide a non-issue when the Lannisters are still in power? LF thought that Cersei was done remember. Varys is putting her back in power.

& it was the Lannisters who made LF Lord Paramount if he gets too bold they can strip him of his position easily. Surely he must know this.

Connington said that the Vale was too far away despite it being in Westeros.

It's also an assumption that Sansa would want to be Aegon's Queen. She dreamt of Winterfell not KL. I already explained how Arianne could act without Doran's approval just as she has done in the past.

I have no emotional attatchment to Arianne/YG. Why would I when they are doomed to fail anyway?

Dorne wants to rebel and Arianne could be the one who causes them to rebel much faster than intended.

& the Riverlands can barely defend their own lands so why would they fight for Sansa? They are much too busy with the Freys atm.

The Vale has loyalty first to SweetRobin then to Harry the Heir. Not to Sansa. Harry the Heir could want her for himself as well as the other Vale lords.

The High Septon doesn't like her or women in particular. Getting the marriage annulled will be much easier than convincing him that she didn't kill Joffrey.

[Wouter]

I don't see Margaery as a threat to Tommen - yet. She has tried to help the rather isolated child have a better life, have him go riding with her and her maids, which he would enjoy, have him go with her into King's Landing (which would be good for him, in terms of seeing somewhere else than the palace, and let his people see him in a positive light), I think she recommended that Tommen attend a council meeting, but am not sure about that. Margaery is also a smart girl; during AFFC, her destiny was tied to Tommen's, she wanted to see him grow up healthy and also gain some kingly experience and popularity (which he wasn't doing while tied to Cersei's apronstrings).

When I mentioned that Margaery may be in the process of taking Tommen, I did not mean in the sense of killing him, but rather gaining his trust and loyalty while Cersei more and more has to take a backseat. Margaery may be taking over Cersei's role as the person Tommen trusts and likes most.

[Wouter]

Except this isn't really possible. If anything he'd plan to have an affair. LF knows he can't be King, but perhaps if he can make Sansa queen (presumably the original plan was Harry's Queen) he can perhaps seduce her and father the heir. Now that's a bold plan but LF is bold. But anyway that's totally speculative.

Not possible? LF already explicitly asked Cersei for Sansa's hand once. It seems very reasonable that this is still his end goal. I also don't see Sansa becoming queen in her own right; Sansa has no claim whatsoever to the Iron Throne and the king/queen in the north stuff seems unworkable in the present situation (and probably in the future as well, with the dragons coming).

Littlefinger is not stupid and won't reach for things he can't have. He's going to get people to follow him by using Sansa as his trump card - her ties with the North, the Tullys and the Vale make her invaluable - but if he marries her he blows this. The Lords wouldn't accept that and LF is too smart to be ignorant of that. He needs puppet leaders, he can't rule in his own name.

LF has made a point of reaching for things others say he can't have. He reached for Catelyn, and is still taking revenge on those who thwarted him (including Catelyn herself, actually). He reached for Sansa through Cersei, and he took revenge on Cersei for refusing him and he pretty much has Sansa now (though not entirely yet in the way he wants). People said he couldn't be a great lord, being from such lowly nobility himself, but he is now lord paramount of the riverlands, lord of Harrenhal and lord protector of the Vale - the latter through marriage with Lysa Tully, something else others said he could never have. And crucially, the lords of the Vale were forced to accept that after a fashion. Moreover, they were even forced to accept - for the time being - that he killed her and now he rules through his puppet, Robert Arryn. He can do the same using Harry's son by Sansa as his puppet.

Extremely speculative. I don't see any basis to believe this. Too risky and doesn't seem like LF's style whatsoever.

Risky not being LF's style? The man takes one enormous risk after another! And not his style whatsoever? He did something very similar with Jon Arryn and with Lysa. Twice over, even. First murder Jon and marry Lysa, then murder Lysa and rule as stepfather over her son. So, how terribly different is that from arranging a marriage between Harry and Sansa, wait till Sansa has a son and then kill off Harry and marry her himself? Then he has what he really wants, and he still gets to be lord protector.

These things are pretty clearly meaningless. Obviously you need strong allies to win a war. If they refused alliance with former enemies they are all hopeless and friendless. Both would probably refuse alliance with Lannisters (and Sansa with Freys), but everyone else is a possible ally.

I doubt it will be meaningless for lord Connington. The strong ally he needs is Dorne, anyway. And preferably some lords in the Reach who would be willing to turn their coat.

LF knows nothing yet about Varys, and why should he care? If anything he'd view being on the same side as Varys as a big plus - better Varys as friend than enemy. Varys clearly wants something with Aegon other than control (most likely Aegon is family to Varys) - because he has zero influence over Aegon. LF would be the one to have direct influence over YG as YG's most powerful supporter. Aegon has probably not even met Varys since he was a child. And Connington hates Varys. YG's is Connington's puppet, not Varys'. Varys seems to have motives other than power.

Ultimately, anybody involved with Aegon is dancing on the strings of Illyrio and Varys. Connington included, as he seems to have been duped by them. And LF is well aware of Varys, I'm pretty sure. I think both have a good idea what game the other one is playing.

I wouldn't view such a thing as an alliance anyway, because if LF wants a marriage between Aegon and Sansa than Varys should and would assume it is because LF has designs on Aegon to use him for his own ends.

Yes and this might be where LF becomes undone. But remember right now she hero worships LF anyway so she might not rebel, who knows. The character arc for LF might be to be brought down by Sansa, or perhaps Tyrion, or perhaps both; we don't really know where LF's arc is going other than him being set up to be a kingmaker/queenmaker.

I wouldn't say Sansa "hero worships" LF. She is wary of him, though she does admire his cleverness and resourcefullness. However, Sansa is playing a role in the Vale and this includes her interactions with LF. "tell people what they want to hear" was his advice, and Sansa does so even towards him.

Definitely not. Sansa's entire value is that she brings Littlefinger as an ally. Without LF she isn't worth much. LF is the key here, not Sansa. An alliance with Littlefinger would be Varys' best case scenario - The GC+Dorne+Littlefinger=almost certain victory. Littlefinger brings the Vale, one of the two most powerful armies in the realm, and probably half the Riverlands lords too with Sansa's Tully ties and LF being nominal Lord Paramount.

I would say that right now, Sansa's and LF's value is connected. You write "LF brings the Vale and probably half the Riverlands lords" but this is very much a simplification of the real situation.

LF is lord protector of the Vale, because he was married to Lysa. However, about half the lords in the Vale want him removed, the other half is for various reasons in his pocket. The most powerful of his Vale opponents, Yohn Royce, could be brought to support him if he revealed Sansa and might even approve of a Harry-Sansa marriage. Waynwood, one if his most powerful supporters, only supports him because of the agreement to drop much of their debt (which is owned by LF) in return for Harry marrying Alayne/Sansa. If Sansa were to marry Aegon instead, the arrangement with Waynwood would be null and void, and if lords like either of the Royces would be willing to go fight for the Targaryens (who are enemies of the Arryns) is doubtful. Moreover, the marriage couldn't take place until Sansa's marriage with Tyrion is annulled, and this almost requires Aegon to take KL (and practically win the war) first, so he can pressure the High Septon into doing as he wants. As long as Sansa doesn't get married though, the Vale lords have even less reason to march for him based on a vague promise (arranged by the unreliable LF) only.

The Riverlands are even more difficult. LF is their lord on paper only, and that paper is a Tommen-sealed one. The riverlords are not going to march against Tommen and pro Aegon based on a piece of paper made by the Lannisters! Moreover, the Riverland armies have suffered multiple defeats, the population will be facing starvation after the destruction of so many crops and Jaime Lannister has collected a load of young hostages, which the Lannisters will kill without hesitation. The real power in the Riverlands right now are the armies of the Freys and the Lannisters, and with them in the field the lords can't rise even if they would be willing to give up on the life of the hostages. LF could attempt to use a Vale army to defeat the Freys and the Lannister army present, but it would require getting the Vale firmly behind him first - and to do he would be best to marry Sansa to Harry.

Varys would definitely want LF as ally. This Varys/LF mortal enemies stuff is a fiction that seems to be based on the TV series. They aren't enemies, they are pragmatists who will work together if it suits their purposes. And their objectives seem to coincide nicely here - both can attain everything they want.

Varys knows LF is a schemer and a backstabber, and he may not know exactly what it is that LF wants. They don't need to be mortal enemies for Varys not to want LF within 100 leagues of Aegon.

Stannis and Varys and LF aren't mortal enemies either, but Stannis would still have kicked them out of the small council if not have them beheaded, anyway. It's the smart thing to do to remove the "players".

But from a character perspective this is not so at all. Her dragons aren't Balerion. And if YG can unite 6 of 7 kingdoms (excluding the North which should be Stannis'), Dany is the logical underdog from the perspective of a character. She'd be invading with a foreign army, and trying to usurp her "nephew's" claim. Aegon at this point could probably field an army of 80,000-100,000+. Militarily Aegon is the clear favorite there.

Why would Dany want to usurp her nephew? Lately she didn't even seem to want to go to Westeros Anyway, count on the side with the dragons to win anyway, should there be a conflict. I think it's more likely Aegon will enjoy some success, but things will then settle down into a stalemate of kinds.

[Wouter]

Dany would have travelled across the world on Quentyn's behest with the Iron Throne promise. Surely she wouldn't take this well.

Eh, Dany did not accept Quentyn's offer. She wasn't in any great rush to go to Westeros at all, because Meereen held priority for her.

Before, she also did accept Viserys as King. I think Dany would accept Aegon, and like Tyrion suspects, she would be willing to come to his aid and go to Westeros because of that, rather than go to Westeros to fight his claim.

I think Dany would be thrilled to know she has family still living - at least as long as she believed him to be genuine. I suppose it may come down to what Barristan, Tyrion and maybe Jorah will advise her. Neither of them trusts Illyrio much, as I recall.

[CrypticWeirwood]

There is just no chance Arianne marries without Doran's permission. Especially under the context you claim, about grievance with calling her brother king - she's declaring civil war on her brother! She wouldn't do it in any context anyway because an heir marrying without liege's consent is just not done.

It's not done because it's not legal. Remember that Prince William had to have Elizabeth's formal consent to marry. There's good reason for that. A ruling dynasty has to control its own alliances by marriage. If it does not and cannot, it does not rule.

[Lord Varys]

As to Varys and Littlefinger:

Aegon is Varys's pet project, apparently. He has invested nearly two decades of scheming into that plot, and I don't see him allowing anyone to endanger its outcome. Meaning that, if Littlefinger was trying to exploit Aegon for his own ends, he would risk Varys's wrath - most likely without knowing that, as there is little chance that Littlefinger has any clue about the fact that Varys is the guy behind Aegon.

Seeing how ruthlessly Varys murdered Pycelle and Kevan when they became a threat to his plans, it is clear that Littlefinger's days would be numbered if he ended up trying to wriggle himself into Aegon's trust. After all, Varys is the one player in Westeros who should know Littlefinger best, what he is capable of, and that he could never be counted upon as a loyal ally. Thus it would be best to get rid of him.

It might be difficult for Varys to assassinate Littlefinger while he is in the Vale, but if he should leave it if he ends up playing the Sansa-Aegon-card, he would be much more vulnerable.

[Gaston de Foix]

Guys, I'm all for vigorous and heated discussion of the series, but can we confine this thread to Arianne I? There are any number of threads to discuss Young Grif or Littlefinger. It's really sad that since ADWD came out, the quality of engagement and discussion on this board has actually dropped as everybody shouts and nobody listens :0( .

[Wouter]

Guys, I'm all for vigorous and heated discussion of the series, but can we confine this thread to Arianne I? There are any number of threads to discuss Young Grif or Littlefinger. It's really sad that since ADWD came out, the quality of engagement and discussion on this board has actually dropped as everybody shouts and nobody listens :0( .

It would be helpful if there was more/new info on this chapter. The amount of reports of readings also seems to have dropped significantly since ADWD came out.

[Faint]

It might be difficult for Varys to assassinate Littlefinger while he is in the Vale, but if he should leave it if he ends up playing the Sansa-Aegon-card, he would be much more vulnerable.

Or, he and Illyrio can hire the Faceless Men to do it, who end up sending Arya (thereby bringing her back into the main story). Just a thought.

[Alexia]

She isn't going to give a damn about Sansa being Ned's daughter. She doesn't hold sins against children.

I think it is relevant here that Sansa is only two and a half years younger than Daenerys herself, and if Daenerys doesn't show up until ADOS Sansa may reach her age of majority (16) by then. Although hopefully she will recall that Ned spoke up to save her own life...

[Wouter]

I think it is relevant here that Sansa is only two and a half years younger than Daenerys herself, and if Daenerys doesn't show up until ADOS Sansa may reach her age of majority (16) by then. Although hopefully she will recall that Ned spoke up to save her own life...

Sansa isn't even 14 yet in AFFC. About 2 years or a little more have passed since early AGOT, I doubt Dany will take 2 full years more to reach Westeros. Sansa will probably be late 14 or early 15 then.

If Dany would want to hurt her or not will mostly depend on whether Sansa bends the knee, keeps a low profile or actively resists her, though. If she doesn't do the latter, I think she's safe from harm though not from being taken hostage.

[CrypticWeirwood]

I think it is relevant here that Sansa is only two and a half years younger than Daenerys herself, and if Daenerys doesn't show up until ADOS Sansa may reach her age of majority (16) by then.

Do we have any idea what the "age of majority" means in Westeros? I'm particularly interested in how it may apply differently to women than to men. I get the idea that women really have very few rights, just as in historical times. I don't know that being aged 16 would allow a woman the right to make her own decisions contrary to her father's wishes.

[Alexia]

Sansa should be 14 by the end of ADWD though, which goes several months past the end of AFFC at the least.

[Alexia]

Do we have any idea what the "age of majority" means in Westeros? I'm particularly interested in how it may apply differently to women than to men. I get the idea that women really have very few rights, just as in historical times. I don't know that being aged 16 would allow a woman the right to make her own decisions contrary to her father's wishes.

Good question but probably worth a different thread to discuss, no?

[Kadence]

How is being wanted for regicide a non-issue when the Lannisters are still in power? LF thought that Cersei was done remember. Varys is putting her back in power.

Because they are trying to push the Lannisters out of power, obviously. Odd that you think Lannisters authority would matter to rebels.

& it was the Lannisters who made LF Lord Paramount if he gets too bold they can strip him of his position easily. Surely he must know this.

He's rebelling against them, the Lannisters can say whatever they want. The Vale will be loyal to Sweetrobin's stepfather whatever Cersei does, especially after he portrays himself as Sansa's savior. The Vale lords will eat that up.

Connington said that the Vale was too far away despite it being in Westeros.

You are confusing what he meant. He was talking in an entirely different context. The Vale is perfectly situated to help them take King's Landing in a pincer move. You cannot say Connington would not value one of the strongest armies in the realm.

It's also an assumption that Sansa would want to be Aegon's Queen. She dreamt of Winterfell not KL. I already explained how Arianne could act without Doran's approval just as she has done in the past.

Sansa's wishes are irrelevant. And I explained clearly why Arianne would not ever marry to create a military alliance without Doran's permission.

I have no emotional attatchment to Arianne/YG. Why would I when they are doomed to fail anyway?

Then it's unclear why you are arguing so hard for something that does not make sense for any character to want?

& the Riverlands can barely defend their own lands so why would they fight for Sansa? They are much too busy with the Freys atm.

Many will definitely fight for Sansa as presented by their Lord Paramount. No question - they absolute loathe Lannisters and Freys. The Freys would be huge underdogs in that struggle. They cannot quell a Riverlands uprising that has Vale support.

The Vale has loyalty first to SweetRobin then to Harry the Heir. Not to Sansa. Harry the Heir could want her for himself as well as the other Vale lords.

Harry might do something LF can't predict, but he isn't lord now anyway and Littlefinger can deal with him later if he needs to.

The High Septon doesn't like her or women in particular. Getting the marriage annulled will be much easier than convincing him that she didn't kill Joffrey.

As I said, getting the marriage annulled is a given once they take power in King's Landing. High Septons can be removed if they do not cooperate.

[Kadence]

As to Varys and Littlefinger:

Aegon is Varys's pet project, apparently. He has invested nearly two decades of scheming into that plot, and I don't see him allowing anyone to endanger its outcome. Meaning that, if Littlefinger was trying to exploit Aegon for his own ends, he would risk Varys's wrath - most likely without knowing that, as there is little chance that Littlefinger has any clue about the fact that Varys is the guy behind Aegon.

Seeing how ruthlessly Varys murdered Pycelle and Kevan when they became a threat to his plans, it is clear that Littlefinger's days would be numbered if he ended up trying to wriggle himself into Aegon's trust. After all, Varys is the one player in Westeros who should know Littlefinger best, what he is capable of, and that he could never be counted upon as a loyal ally. Thus it would be best to get rid of him.

It might be difficult for Varys to assassinate Littlefinger while he is in the Vale, but if he should leave it if he ends up playing the Sansa-Aegon-card, he would be much more vulnerable.

Littlefinger would be the greatest ally Aegon could possibly hope for - Kevan was the leader of Aegon's enemies. You cannot compare the two. It does not make sense to say Varys won't want Littlefinger as an ally. A Littlefinger alliance means Aegon pretty easily wins the war, which is all that Varys is working towards. Varys would try to manipulate a Littlefinger alliance into happening, not against it.

If Varys was at all worried about Littlefinger he could deal with him after he helps Aegon win the war.

[ARYa_Nym]

This discussion is inappropriate for this thread so I won't bother with it anymore.

[Kadence]

I also don't see Sansa becoming queen in her own right; Sansa has no claim whatsoever to the Iron Throne and the king/queen in the north stuff seems unworkable in the present situation (and probably in the future as well, with the dragons coming).

She wouldn't be queen in "her own right". But she has the perfect ties for Littlefinger to prop her up and use her to garner allies and solidify his power in the Riverlands and Vale.

LF has made a point of reaching for things others say he can't have.

LF is way too smart to reach for the throne itself, that opens him up to too much danger. I'll never buy into LF wants to be king theories. They don't seem credible to me. LF seems to want more of a Bloodraven type role. Regent, Hand etc.

He did something very similar with Jon Arryn and with Lysa.

Hmm. This is a very good point, but the series probably won't last long enough for this plan to really manifest anyway. But either way it's highly speculative so you certainly should not take it for granted.

I doubt it will be meaningless for lord Connington. The strong ally he needs is Dorne, anyway. And preferably some lords in the Reach who would be willing to turn their coat.

Dorne and a few friends alone will not win him the war. He needs powerful allies and will inevitably have to ally with former enemies - he can't go around killing and fighting everyone who ever opposed Rhaeghar. And Sansa wasn't even born then. He'll just view her as a pawn.

Ultimately, anybody involved with Aegon is dancing on the strings of Illyrio and Varys. Connington included, as he seems to have been duped by them. And LF is well aware of Varys, I'm pretty sure. I think both have a good idea what game the other one is playing.

Littlefinger has no way to have ever known about Aegon or Varys' true plans - the secret was too well protected. LF's only way to know about Varys supporting Aegon is if Connington tells people how Varys saved Aegon. Not like LF should view this as a bad thing anyway, better to be Varys' friend than his enemy. And yes Connington is dancing to their tune but he is the one with influence over Aegon, not them.

I wouldn't view such a thing as an alliance anyway, because if LF wants a marriage between Aegon and Sansa than Varys should and would assume it is because LF has designs on Aegon to use him for his own ends.

Well of course he'd use him to his own ends. That's a given. It's what *all* lords do. Dorne is using Aegon to their own ends as well, and the Reach friends, and even the Golden Company and Connington.

I would say that right now, Sansa's and LF's value is connected. You write "LF brings the Vale and probably half the Riverlands lords" but this is very much a simplification of the real situation.

It's a simplification but it's also true. There is no doubt that the Vale will be LF's once he unveils Sansa. And the Riverlords who love Tullys and/or hate Freys as well.

If Sansa were to marry Aegon instead, the arrangement with Waynwood would be null and void

This wouldn't be hard to deal with as LF controls the debt.

and if lords like either of the Royces would be willing to go fight for the Targaryens (who are enemies of the Arryns) is doubtful.

Jon Arryn fought Aerys - this hardly means Royce won't fight for Aegon if it means having allies against the Lannisters. The Lannisters are the only people the Vale lords are really interested in fighting.

As long as Sansa doesn't get married though, the Vale lords have even less reason to march for him based on a vague promise (arranged by the unreliable LF) only.

Many if not most political deals are made by promises. The Tyrion marriage is an issue but a minor one. Again, both sides here have very strong motive to want this deal.

The Riverlands are even more difficult. LF is their lord on paper only, and that paper is a Tommen-sealed one.

Which is exactly why he needs Sansa so badly (regardless of who she marries). She is his key to controlling the Riverlands. Littlefinger is planning rebellion and Sansa is his key to getting support. Without Sansa, his rebellion would be short lived.

Stannis and Varys and LF aren't mortal enemies either, but Stannis would still have kicked them out of the small council if not have them beheaded, anyway.

Exactly, LF and Varys worked on the same side against Stannis because it served their mutual self-interest. Their mutual self-interest is clearly better served by working on the same side here. They are highly unlikely to have any interaction anyway - LF works in the open with lords, Varys works behind the scenes.

Why would Dany want to usurp her nephew? Lately she didn't even seem to want to go to Westeros Anyway, count on the side with the dragons to win anyway, should there be a conflict. I think it's more likely Aegon will enjoy some success, but things will then settle down into a stalemate of kinds.

Aegon has no proof of identity so they may or may not come into conflict. Most readers are assuming there will be an Aegon-Dany war, I'm less sure (doesn't seem to be time for it with only 3 books left). If there is war Dany will win but that's speaking as a reader - if you were a character then Aegon would be the favorite based on what they know. In any case as I said, Dany will not factor into Connington's and LF's plans. They'll assume that she's stuck in Meereen or dead.