[TWoW Spoilers] Arianne I

[Alexia]

She means Storm' End. A "citadel" as in a fortress, not THE citadel in Oldtown.

Thanks for clarifying, Wouter. What can I say; I am a space case. :)

[Karen Freeman-Smith]

The Lannister line would be extinct unless a male heir took it up.

How hard would it be for Sansa to show up with a male heir? With all the baby swapping that goes on in the 7 kingdoms, and LF's devious mind... no one has seen her to know she wasn't pregnant.

[Jon AS]

Good to know, thanks for the citations. Again though, I do not see this as evidence of them being fodder for every conqueror. Fewer assumptions involved in just assuming they contribute whatever the minimum level of troop or other support they can get away with when called on by Highgarden and/or the Iron Throne, and do not like to get involved in civil wars if they can credibly stay out of them. It would be interesting to know what involvement they had at the FoF, and more recently, what their contributions were in Robert's Rebellion and the Greyjoy Rebellion. My feeling is that in the former they probably did hold back as much as possible, and did not in the latter since ironmen reaving the west coast of Westeros strikes them rather close to home.

They aren't "fodder", they just don't consider war profitable and look for alternatives if at all possible. Their great power means that any conquerors will likewise do a cost-benefit analysis and realise that allowing them to keep on doing their own thing is preferable to armed conflict, as long as they pay their taxes. It says that they gave up their crown but were allowed to keep most of their priviledges, I wouldn't be surprised if they were exempt from having to provide troops to their liege lord as would be normally expected.

Their power and influence of course also stretches beyond the military and economic spheres, they are also the protectors of the Citadel and Oldtown was the seat of the High Septon before he relocated to King's Landing.

All that of course means that if House Hightower ever decides to throw in with anyone, it will be a big deal.

[Été]

How hard would it be for Sansa to show up with a male heir? With all the baby swapping that goes on in the 7 kingdoms, and LF's devious mind... no one has seen her to know she wasn't pregnant.

It would involve a total 180 on LF's current plan to marry Sansa off. Legally, Tyrion should have been heir regardless of Tywin's wishes, but that was before he was condemned as a regicide. Surely his claim to Casterly Rock is now forfeit, as of Oberyn Martell's demise?

If Sansa turned up with a baby anyway, its claim (if Tyrion's remains valid) would be disputed straight away. Sansa would have had to conceive before the Purple Wedding, which took place a few days after the Red Wedding - so at the latest, Sansa had to fall pregnant around the same time as Roslin Tully, and she's got to be due any day now. So any child of Sansa's would be the wrong age to be Tyrion's. Even if LF bought an appropriately-aged baby, it's common knowledge that Tyrion and Sansa weren't sleeping together, so the baby's parentage would be questioned although it can't be proven.

[Alexia]

It would involve a total 180 on LF's current plan to marry Sansa off. Legally, Tyrion should have been heir regardless of Tywin's wishes, but that was before he was condemned as a regicide. Surely his claim to Casterly Rock is now forfeit, as of Oberyn Martell's demise?

If Sansa turned up with a baby anyway, its claim (if Tyrion's remains valid) would be disputed straight away. Sansa would have had to conceive before the Purple Wedding, which took place a few days after the Red Wedding - so at the latest, Sansa had to fall pregnant around the same time as Roslin Tully, and she's got to be due any day now. So any child of Sansa's would be the wrong age to be Tyrion's. Even if LF bought an appropriately-aged baby, it's common knowledge that Tyrion and Sansa weren't sleeping together, so the baby's parentage would be questioned although it can't be proven.

Half the realm, including all the nobles of the court, for reasons that utterly mystify me think that Sansa and Tyrion planned to kill Joffrey together and that they are hiding out together. Tyrion's claim being forfeit doesn't affect that of his heir; even attainted, his son or daughter would be the heir to Casterly Rock. However, given their limited understanding of genetics in Westeros they might regard normal stature as evidence that the child is not Tyrion's.

However, amusing as the idea of Sansa pulling a Cersei is, she wants Winterfell not Casterly Rock so I think the Lannisters don't need to worry about something like that happening.

[Urien the Ragged]

I'm not sure if this is serious or not.

There are a LOT of people with Valaryan features out there, even in Westeros (the Driftmark clan and the Daynes). Essos seems to be crawling with them, which makes sense as the Valaryan race wasn't made extinct by the Doom, they just suffered massive population loss. The survivors spread out and married around in Essos. And Jon Con didn't get Aegon until he was a kid, which gave Varys plenty of time to find a nice hair/eye match.

a "lot"? it seems like the driftmarks are the only ones mentioned who have enough valyrian features to be mistaken for targaryens. the dayne's have some of them, but have dark hair.

if these features are so common (in westeros or across the narrow sea), why is it that aegon's hair is dyed blue, only to be washed out when he reaches westeros? seems to me like he would have just blended in.

[Wouter]

a "lot"? it seems like the driftmarks are the only ones mentioned who have enough valyrian features to be mistaken for targaryens. the dayne's have some of them, but have dark hair.

if these features are so common (in westeros or across the narrow sea), why is it that aegon's hair is dyed blue, only to be washed out when he reaches westeros? seems to me like he would have just blended in.

The features aren't common - but not super rare either, at least not in parts of Essos.

We have:

Serra (and by repute, other girls in Lys with similar colouring)

Jorah's whore in Selhorys

Ashara Dayne - ser Barristan says that Dany looks like she could be her daughter

the Velaryons of Driftmark, and the Celtigars of Claw's Island (IIRC)

surviving Blackfyre offspring

surviving offspring from Targ side-branches (Aerion Brightflame, possibly others)

[SerFelixCulpa]

They aren't "fodder", they just don't consider war profitable and look for alternatives if at all possible. Their great power means that any conquerors will likewise do a cost-benefit analysis and realise that allowing them to keep on doing their own thing is preferable to armed conflict, as long as they pay their taxes. It says that they gave up their crown but were allowed to keep most of their priviledges, I wouldn't be surprised if they were exempt from having to provide troops to their liege lord as would be normally expected.

Their power and influence of course also stretches beyond the military and economic spheres, they are also the protectors of the Citadel and Oldtown was the seat of the High Septon before he relocated to King's Landing.

All that of course means that if House Hightower ever decides to throw in with anyone, it will be a big deal.

That's all as may be, but we'll have to await confirmation. Certainly, we have good reason to believe they aren't a very significant naval power: else they'd not be having as much trouble with the Ironborn as they are. We have no idea of their overall military strength, but certainly, I don't think we have much reason to believe they're sitting on a huge army just drilling and biding its time. "Privileges" is subject to many interpretations, particularly in a feudal context, though I agree it probably means they have a lesser duty than others in the provision of men or materiel (possibly both). And it remains to be seen just what their influence over the Citadel is: there is increasing reason to believe that the Maesters have their own agenda and it might be the Hightowers that dance to their tune, not vice versa.

[Wouter]

The Oldtown city watch probably is a rather powerful defensive force - after all, the city is wealthy and has a lot of population to call on so it should be well staffed, equipped and trained unless the Hightowers aren't doing their job.

Maybe the Hightowers don't have that many knights or "normal" levies to contribute though, and the city watch is held back to protect their prized and precious possesion, the city itself and the citadel.

[Été]

a "lot"? it seems like the driftmarks are the only ones mentioned who have enough valyrian features to be mistaken for targaryens. the dayne's have some of them, but have dark hair.

if these features are so common (in westeros or across the narrow sea), why is it that aegon's hair is dyed blue, only to be washed out when he reaches westeros? seems to me like he would have just blended in.

Ashara is the only Dayne noted to have dark hair; Edric and Darkstar are both silver-blond. The Daynes and the Velaryons are seemingly the only other families in Westeros with typical Valyrian-looking features. They're a lot more common in places like Lys than in Andal populations like Westeros or the northern parts of Essos.

Red-headed Jon Connington is trying to pass Aegon off as his son; the story is easier to sell if at least their hair is similar (even dyed). Aegon's natural hair colour would stand out more given the motley crew with whom he's travelling, and although it's not distinctive in itself, among Westerosi it would be another clue to his identity.

[SerFelixCulpa]

The Oldtown city watch probably is a rather powerful defensive force - after all, the city is wealthy and has a lot of population to call on so it should be well staffed, equipped and trained unless the Hightowers aren't doing their job.

Maybe the Hightowers don't have that many knights or "normal" levies to contribute though, and the city watch is held back to protect their prized and precious possesion, the city itself and the citadel.

:agree: This seems likely to me. I imagine the provision of maesters to the Seven Kingdoms and probably some other forms of monetary or other tributes serve to lessen Oldtown's military obligations elsewhere. I can't imagine in a feudal system they escape the levy system entirely, but I think we're agreed it's likely that particularly for a population center its size it definitely does not have to punch its weight.

[Jon AS]

This seems likely to me. I imagine the provision of maesters to the Seven Kingdoms and probably some other forms of monetary or other tributes serve to lessen Oldtown's military obligations elsewhere. I can't imagine in a feudal system they escape the levy system entirely, but I think we're agreed it's likely that particularly for a population center its size it definitely does not have to punch its weight.

I don't think the maesters are considered part of House Hightowers obligations the Tyrells. The Citadel may enjoy close relationships with them, but they are an independent entity and provide maesters all over the realm (where presumably the local lord is responsible for their upkeep).

Since members of several houses sworn to Oldtown have been involved in fighting during the War of Five Kings (I at the very least remember references to Mullendore, Costayne and Cuy) either those lesser lords are still obliged to provide military assistance or at least lord Hightower didn't stop them from participating voluntarily.

[AudiS423]

Hey Everyone,

My first post here and have to say its been very enjoyable to read all the ideas/speculation and its definitely given me some different ideas to think about. A few things I have noticed lacking that just started to get some discussion is the maesters. I think Samwell's part in this is far from over and with all the new info on Aegon, Bran is getting lost in all this as he is probably the most powerful of anyone given his abilities. "You will fly" keeps ringing in my head and I cant get the thought out of my head that he will be sharing space with Drogon at some point. I do think that Aegon is too good to be true but the reality is that its going to be very difficult to doubt his claim even with whispers otherwise or even potential facial differences. See Cersi's kids for that. I also cant wait to see how Arya, Gendry, Davos, Victarion, and Stoneheart(Catelyn)/Brienne/Jamie figure back into this. I can see how GRRM may need to do another book after I Dream of Spring as there is still a lot of story left to be told.

[direWolfDel]

Did GRRM say anything about the other moved chapter?

Wait moved to ADWD or moved from ADWD?

[SerFelixCulpa]

I don't think the maesters are considered part of House Hightowers obligations the Tyrells. The Citadel may enjoy close relationships with them, but they are an independent entity and provide maesters all over the realm (where presumably the local lord is responsible for their upkeep).

Since members of several houses sworn to Oldtown have been involved in fighting during the War of Five Kings (I at the very least remember references to Mullendore, Costayne and Cuy) either those lesser lords are still obliged to provide military assistance or at least lord Hightower didn't stop them from participating voluntarily.

We don't know exactly what the relationship with the Hightowers and the Citadel is, though we do know the Hightowers are styled as "protectors" of the Citadel of some sort. There's too little evidence as to how the Citadel operates (and who finances it) to go any further with this, though I agree it is unlikely that providing maesters is in any way part of their obligations to the Tyrells (or for that matter the Gardeners before them). It may or may not be an obligation to the realm and/or the throne, to the extent those propositions differ.

Interesting question: were maesters provided by the Citadel to lords all over the Seven Kingdoms prior to Aegon the Conqueror? Is there anything which gets to this question either way? I can't recall.

[MillerEP]

A couple of my thoughts:

1. Concerning Sansa's Marriage:

Regardless of who they swore the weeding too, etc, the wedding HAS to be concumated in order for it to count and be binding. GRRM said in the google interview that the 7 was just a play on the Catholic Church which he was raised in, so outside of splitting one God up into 3 parts (the Holy Trinity), one is split up into 7, etc. So it stands to reason that he would take most of it's other tenants, such as the concepts of consumation and rules for annulment. Also, as far as we all know Sansa has yet to have sex with anyone, therefore just like in real life, a simple hymen check would be all that is necessary to confirm her maidenhood.

She also still has some significant part to play and with LF's help has the entire army of the Vale still.

2. Concerning Lannister's line:

There still are a bunch of Lannisters running around, there is still Lancel (assuming he can marry in the rainbow warriors), Ser Daven Lannister (Stafford's son), Squire Martyn Lannister (Kevan's son), Tyvek (if he isn't dead), Jaime (assuming he leaves the Kingsguard and/or isn't killed off), Tyrion (assuming he isn't killed off), and he cousins Damion Lannister, and Lucian Lannister (sitting in Crakehall)

3. Concerning Maggy's prophecy:

What is the Cercei's prophecy was about herself? Maybe the younger and more beautiful proncess to come about which will be the end to her is herself or her young friend that she killed? (i.e. the young version of herself) For instance, maybe it was her own fear of the prophecy that ultimately was her downfall, since everything she did was self inflicted because of her young self wanted to go to Maggy (who she treated poorly). That would also mean that the prophecy about being strangled to death by the younger brother was actually A) Jaime or B) Tyrion, but not a literal strangulation but a literal one, which would mean A) if Jaime, then she'll hang for her crimes (choking to death/strangualtion) because he did not come to her pleas for help, i.e. in-directly strangling her or B) It was her fear and poor treatment of Tyrion which will ultimately cause her death by a real or imagined strangulation...

Most of GRRM's prophecies or foreshadowing are like IRL prophecies which sometimes is more literal than an actual event, so it stands to reason that this prophecy is like the Mummer's dragon one, all of Mel's which turn out to misinterpretted, and the rest of the AA ones.

[Urien the Ragged]

i don't know, maggy's prophecy has been pretty literal up until now. i think the only interpretation will be which brother is the volanqar.

[Été]

2. Concerning Lannister's line:

There still are a bunch of Lannisters running around, there is still Lancel (assuming he can marry in the rainbow warriors), Ser Daven Lannister (Stafford's son), Squire Martyn Lannister (Kevan's son), Tyvek (if he isn't dead), Jaime (assuming he leaves the Kingsguard and/or isn't killed off), Tyrion (assuming he isn't killed off), and he cousins Damion Lannister, and Lucian Lannister (sitting in Crakehall)

Just to let you know, Lancel can't marry as one of the Warrior's Sons. They give up their lands and titles when they join the brotherhood, and his marriage to Gatehouse Ami is now forfeit. Cross him out of the Lannister succession.

[oath breaker]

Hey Everyone,

My first post here and have to say its been very enjoyable to read all the ideas/speculation and its definitely given me some different ideas to think about. A few things I have noticed lacking that just started to get some discussion is the maesters. I think Samwell's part in this is far from over and with all the new info on Aegon, Bran is getting lost in all this as he is probably the most powerful of anyone given his abilities. "You will fly" keeps ringing in my head and I cant get the thought out of my head that he will be sharing space with Drogon at some point. I do think that Aegon is too good to be true but the reality is that its going to be very difficult to doubt his claim even with whispers otherwise or even potential facial differences. See Cersi's kids for that. I also cant wait to see how Arya, Gendry, Davos, Victarion, and Stoneheart(Catelyn)/Brienne/Jamie figure back into this. I can see how GRRM may need to do another book after I Dream of Spring as there is still a lot of story left to be told.

There is good reason for thinking Aegon is fake but i remember when Dany was in the house of the undying Rhaegar (whilst holding his newborn brat) seemed to look at her and tell her there is one more because the dragon always has 3 heads so im thinking he's real.

[ARYa_Nym]

Rhaegar was wrong about the prophecy though. He thought that he was the promised prince but he isn't. & I'm suspecting that he thought that Jon was going to be a girl. He named his son Aegon and his daughter Rhaenys which tells me that he was expecting Jon to be Visenya. Dany might be the one and Rhaegar never anticipated her.