[TWoW Spoilers] Arianne I

[SerFelixCulpa]

Predictions:

Arriane's tits will be described yet again. Extensively. (Seriously, even given the boob fetish shown in these books-- even twelve year old Sansa's "teats" are lovingly, lustfully, PANTINGLY described-- the hang up on Arriane's breast's is so blatant to the extent that it's downright laughable.)

Second prediction:

Arriane's putting the little sand snake in her place will have something to do with said sandsnake either a. acting vengeful, or b. talking back/ rebelling against or insulting the wise and criminally disrespected patriarch Doran.

(Meh, maybe this second one won't happen... fair chance though.)

Third and most defininate prediction:

Arrianne's little venture to see "the dragon" will end in disaster. That is what happens every time when she disobeys papa patriarch Doran. The last time she disobeyed him and former her own plan she failed epically, humiliatingly, and, the text emphasizes, stupidly. When Arrianne last acted for herself, she is portrayed as an idiot who thinks herself clever. (Like Cersei.) When she obeyed papa and did everything he said (bowed to his superior wisdom and happilly obeyed his will) she was portrayed as intelligent and "good." Now that she's disobeying him again, the result is sure to be disaster. Silly Arrianne!

Once again Myr, I think your comments reflect more on your own perceptive filters and outlook rather than what GRRM actually put down on paper. I don't recall either Sansa or Arianne's "teats" having been described except in fairly general terms...though with enough information for the reader to gather they are both very visually attractive young women. Which is important to the plot for multiple reasons. Certainly, your use of the color adjectives "lovingly, lustfully, PANTINGLY" with reference to this issue needs textual support. Please provide what you contend amounts to this. I might add, with respect to Arianne, that most if not all of the passages to which you could possibly refer to as being "lovingly," "lustfully," and/or "PANTINGLY" descriptive occur in the context of sex scenes -- which in Martin and elsewhere don't tend to be clinically descriptive (edit: especially when sex scenes occur in the context of a POV format!) for fairly apparent reasons. Even so, I don't personally recall them as being anything other than more or less normal literary description of sex and the people involved. So is your problem really with how Martin wrote it, or with sex scenes in general?

Your point re: Elia acting "vengeful" and/or disrespectful of Doran's authority is unclear to me. I understand that you think Doran is the patriarchy-made-flesh-with-a-side-of-gout. It has also been pretty well established that the sandsnakes' primary problem with Doran is that they are angry at him and blame him (whether fairly or unfairly) for the death of Oberyn and/or Doran's lackluster response to same. So evidence of their loyalty to their father and/or taking after him personality wise is supposed to be evidence that Doran is unfairly or unrealistically portrayed as an "infallible" patriarch? The sandsnakes are portrayed as young, hotblooded, and impulsive. Isn't it just as easy to assume that GRRM is portraying this characteristic as unwise (just as it was with Oberyn) rather than trying to assert that young girls inevitably regret not following the directions of their authorized patriarch? I also disagree that Doran is portrayed as infallible. He's old, patient, desires to expand his own power, repay old grudges, and ruthless. In fact, he reminds me of no one quite so much as Olenna Redwyne, only probably less effective in the end. On that note, his plans are hardly turning up roses...he failed to prevent the kidnap and maiming of Myrcella despite having taken steps to rein in the sandsnakes, his plan to send his son off to Daenerys obviously didn't work out very well, and his very last ADwD line rather plainly indicated he is riddled with doubts and insecurities about his decisions. I suspect disaster will come to Dorne in large part, if anything, because despite his cunning Doran Martell is both fallible and not powerful enough to predict or control the larger forces at work.

Finally, what is your evidence for Arianne in any way disobeying Doran in going to see the "Dragon"? You've set your prediction up so that even if you're wrong about the "disobeying" part you can still claim you were right. Wasn't Arianne being sent to see the "Dragon" one way or another? I think we're at least supposed to suspect this if nothing else, and it certainly seems likely that either Arianne or Elia are being sent to be dangled as marriage bait for him. Thus, whether the trip to see him ends in "disaster" one way or another, it's hardly proof that this results from Arianne's alleged failure to kowtow to the wise and infallible patriarch.

In summary, I think you have again construed the depiction of a medieval and patriarchal society as evidence of an intent on the part of the author to portray patriarchy as desirable. Well, if you're inclined to bring that baggage to the table you'll find "evidence" for it one way or another whether it exists or not.

[History of Westeros]

Once again Myr, I think your comments reflect more on your own perceptive filters and outlook rather than what GRRM actually put down on paper. I don't recall either Sansa or Arianne's "teats" having been described except in fairly general terms...though with enough information for the reader to gather they are both very visually attractive young women. Which is important to the plot for multiple reasons. Certainly, your use of the color adjectives "lovingly, lustfully, PANTINGLY" with reference to this issue needs textual support. Please provide what you contend amounts to this. I might add, with respect to Arianne, that most if not all of the passages to which you could possibly refer to as being "lovingly," "lustfully," and/or "PANTINGLY" descriptive occur in the context of sex scenes -- which in Martin and elsewhere don't tend to be clinically descriptive (edit: especially when sex scenes occur in the context of a POV format!) for fairly apparent reasons. Even so, I don't personally recall them as being anything other than more or less normal literary description of sex and the people involved. So is your problem really with how Martin wrote it, or with sex scenes in general?

Your point re: Elia acting "vengeful" and/or disrespectful of Doran's authority is unclear to me. I understand that you think Doran is the patriarchy-made-flesh-with-a-side-of-gout. It has also been pretty well established that the sandsnakes' primary problem with Doran is that they are angry at him and blame him (whether fairly or unfairly) for the death of Oberyn and/or Doran's lackluster response to same. So evidence of their loyalty to their father and/or taking after him personality wise is supposed to be evidence that Doran is unfairly or unrealistically portrayed as an "infallible" patriarch? The sandsnakes are portrayed as young, hotblooded, and impulsive. Isn't it just as easy to assume that GRRM is portraying this characteristic as unwise (just as it was with Oberyn) rather than trying to assert that young girls inevitably regret not following the directions of their authorized patriarch? I also disagree that Doran is portrayed as infallible. He's old, patient, desires to expand his own power, repay old grudges, and ruthless. In fact, he reminds me of no one quite so much as Olenna Redwyne, only probably less effective in the end. On that note, his plans are hardly turning up roses...he failed to prevent the kidnap and maiming of Myrcella despite having taken steps to rein in the sandsnakes, his plan to send his son off to Daenerys obviously didn't work out very well, and his very last ADwD line rather plainly indicated he is riddled with doubts and insecurities about his decisions. I suspect disaster will come to Dorne in large part, if anything, because despite his cunning Doran Martell is both fallible and not powerful enough to predict or control the larger forces at work.

Finally, what is your evidence for Arianne in any way disobeying Doran in going to see the "Dragon"? You've set your prediction up so that even if you're wrong about the "disobeying" part you can still claim you were right. Wasn't Arianne being sent to see the "Dragon" one way or another? I think we're at least supposed to suspect this if nothing else, and it certainly seems likely that either Arianne or Elia are being sent to be dangled as marriage bait for him. Thus, whether the trip to see him ends in "disaster" one way or another, it's hardly proof that this results from Arianne's alleged failure to kowtow to the wise and infallible patriarch.

In summary, I think you have again construed the depiction of a medieval and patriarchal society as evidence of an intent on the part of the author to portray patriarchy as desirable. Well, if you're inclined to bring that baggage to the table you'll find "evidence" for it one way or another whether it exists or not.

Amen. The gears were turning in my head as I pondered my own response to Myr. I think you nailed it however, and I will content myself with praising you for it.

[Urien the Ragged]

I wonder if the Tyrells have neglected to throw quite as much of their lot in with the Lannisters as everyone was meant to think. Between Lady Olenna's involvement in Joffery's murder, the conveniently vague and protracted "death" of Loras, and two fishy conquests of Storms End in a row, I'm starting to think that Highgarden has been playing a much longer game than it's seemed.

i'm pretty sure lady olenna had nothing to do with joffrey's death and it was all littlefinger or varys. i mean, how would littlefinger know to have the ship waiting for sansa?

[lord ryan]

As usual on this board, this thread has gone way off topic … honestly, I don’t feel like digging through 13 pages of random ramblings and miscellaneous musings just to find out if or if not Trebla has already posted her complete notes on the reading. — A link to the relevant post (if existant) edited into the original post would be much appreciated, perhaps not only by me.

a-men thats the only reason i keep coming back

[Galen M]

i'm pretty sure lady olenna had nothing to do with joffrey's death and it was all littlefinger or varys. i mean, how would littlefinger know to have the ship waiting for sansa?

uh, please reread Storm.

She was the one who removed the stone from Sansa's hairnet, and she clearly planned the whole thing with LF.

[Landis]

Just going to switch gears here for a second and talk about another power that hasn't been mentioned here at all: Braavos. We don't really know much about the moves that they have made, but we do know that the Iron Bank is well pissed with Kings Landing over the enormous debt the crown owes them, and have thrown in support for the Night's Watch and Stannis. There's also the Faceless Men and the pervasiveness of the organization within Braavosi culture. Is it just me, or does it seem a little odd that the "valar morghulis"/"valar doheris" proverb is known to so many in Braavos, and not just people affiliated with the Faceless Men?

I'd also point to Jaqen H'ghar randomly turning up in Oldtown and takes Pate's face, which is another instance where Braavos meets up with the Night's Watch (Sam, who arrives shortly thereafter) at approximately the same chronological time as the Iron Bank's approach. We also know (not for a certainty, but I don't presently harbour any doubts) that Sarella Sand is undercover in the Citadel as Alleras, the Sphinx. SOMETHING is going to happen in Oldtown, Doran seems to know that, and if I'm guessing correctly, Braavos does as well, hence Jaqen's presence. In case I'm being less than clear here, I'm of the speculative opinion that the Faceless Men are a fighting force loyal to Braavos at this point, not so much a hired force as they have been to our knowledge thus far.

If Jaqen is on some secret mission for Braavos/Faceless Men and not simply a hired kill, it seems to me increasingly likely that Arya's tutelage with the Faceless Men was not so accidental as it seemed. If you think about it, Syrio was a Braavosi (and a fairly important one at that, assuming "Syrio" isn't just another face of Jaqen's, though that would also play into this theory) who was in Kings Landing teaching Arya swordskills; Arya, daughter of the King's Hand. Not exactly the worst of (political) views from that window. Jaqen sends her to Braavos after becoming familiar with Arya's vengeful nature, surely knowing that this would conflict with her duties if she were to become a Faceless Man. But he wouldn't have failed to note other important things about her as well: her hit list, comprised of minor and major players in the Lannister regime; and her noble birth. Arya is a potential heir to one of the major houses, and she holds enormous animosity towards the Lannisters and the present king (being Joffery, at the time when Jaqen knew Arya), both of which play in rather nicely to my proposed Braavosi plot to take over the world/do something nuts. As a Faceless Man, Arya makes for a perfect pawn to be used against the present rulers in Westeros (noting that the Iron Bank is apparently only throwing in lots with those not in league with the Lannisters).

Less seriously: in other threads, I've given Arya as a potential fulfiller of Cersei's prophecy being both the "younger, prettier queen" and the valonqar. Seeing as a Faceless Man can be whoever they want, I find it compelling to contemplate the possibility that the queen and the valonqar might in fact be two faces of the same person. Well, that and I really want Arya to cross all the names off her list, Cersei dearest included.

Crackpot theory aside though, it seems to me that there is a lot we have yet to learn about Braavos and their motives in the game of thrones.

[Manderly`s Personal Chef]

After reading this, the waiting for tWoW has already become unbearable. JonCon is more badass than most of the other characters, Arianne is shaping into a very interesting character (compared to AFfC), YG might be more able than he shows (he took Storm`s End!)...very, very good George.

[Urien the Ragged]

uh, please reread Storm.

She was the one who removed the stone from Sansa's hairnet, and she clearly planned the whole thing with LF.

the purple wedding was never explicitly explained like the red wedding was. littlefinger says all sorts of things to all sorts of people.

[Galen M]

the purple wedding was never explicitly explained like the red wedding was. littlefinger says all sorts of things to all sorts of people.

it's pretty clear what he says to Sansa. Olenna took the poison from the hairnet and passed it off to someone (either Garlan or Marg), who then put it in the drink. Anyway, this is wildly off topic.

[Urien the Ragged]

it's pretty clear what he says to Sansa. Olenna took the poison from the hairnet and passed it off to someone (either Garlan or Marg), who then put it in the drink. Anyway, this is wildly off topic.

i remember him hinting strongly that this is what happened. it's possible he just knew who did it and was simply casting blame upon the tyrells.

[Galen M]

i remember him hinting strongly that this is what happened. it's possible he just knew who did it and was simply casting blame upon the tyrells.

care to posit an alternate explanation for what happened with the hairnet, all the way from LF making sure Sansa had it, to Olenna taking the stone out?

[Urien the Ragged]

i lent all of my books out so i'll have to research and get back to you on that.

[Weirwood hugger]

i love the braavosi conspiracy theory. There's a lot of fishy things in the works at the end of DWD that could really go any direction which in my opinion was a huge positive to the book even though it's no SoS.

Anyway back on topic Arienne I think may being going rogue on her father again here. I don't know if she wants a marriage with Aegon or just to set up some new scheme, but it's not in her nature to go to Storm's End just to see a Targ.

And in terms with the Tyrell's I'm pretty suspicious that they might actually be switching sides...again. With the Lannister Alliance in shambles, between the fall of Cersei, deaths of Kevan and Pycelle, the boy-king curse, and disappearance of Jaime, I really think the Tyrell's are done with dealing with Lannisters and Tommen. As mentioned before they had a shady role in the death of Joffrey so I wouldn't be surprised at all if they kidnap Tommen via Margy and join Aegon/Connington, putting Aegon on the Iron Throne and Tommen being cast out smoothly. Hopefully this leads to Cersei retreating to the Rock (finally can we see this place!?) and attempting to get Tommen and Myrcella back through Cersei-type methods. She needs to stick to her guns and work behind the scenes.

[Daralys]

I get the feeling that Arianne has serious issues in regards to Quentyn. I doubt she likes the thought of Quentyn outranking her and can easily see her trying to seduce "Aegon", and I can see him going with it. Even though "Aegon" and Jon Connington are determined to see "Aegon" married to Dany, I could see Arianne arguing that if Aegon the Conqueror had two wives, Aegon VI should be able to have the same. Despite what Varys said (hardcover page 959: "Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."), I got the impression that "Aegon" felt he was entitled to the throne, and if he's here to conquer with Dany and 3 dragons, it doesn't seem like much of a stretch for him to feel he's entitled to two wives as well.

[Chris Fudge]

What if Arianne surprises us all? What if she finds that seducing YG is beneath her due to age diff and tries to form an alliance through JonCon? I know he has greyscale, but he could use protection...gloves maybe. I am not sure how the grey scale works.

Meanwhile, Dany gets the khalasar that we saw at the end of her last chapter. Why would they follow her? Lets see, Drogon for one, and they respect strength. The practical reason is that they live off the grass sea, it is clearly stated that the grass seas are dying with the onset of winter. They have no where else to go, why wouldn't they cast their lot with her and help her crush the Yunkai and the Harpy? So then she has her infantry with the Unsullied and her light cavalry with her Dothraki and her air force with the dragons. Then when Victarion arrives, she will have a navy. The fly in the ointment is the horn Victarion carries and his agenda. However, Black Flame might have an agenda that ends up getting the horn to Dany so she can choose who will be the other riders.

It would be nice to also have heavy infantry and heavy cavalry to counter those of Westeros, but she might not need them. Not only could she create pikemen units among her freedmen to stop cavalry charges, but she has the dragons and they will surely make even a warhorse balk. Or maybe I have been playing too much cyvasse...lol

[History of Westeros]

What if Arianne surprises us all? What if she finds that seducing YG is beneath her due to age diff and tries to form an alliance through JonCon? I know he has greyscale, but he could use protection...gloves maybe. I am not sure how the grey scale works.

Meanwhile, Dany gets the khalasar that we saw at the end of her last chapter. Why would they follow her? Lets see, Drogon for one, and they respect strength. The practical reason is that they live off the grass sea, it is clearly stated that the grass seas are dying with the onset of winter. They have no where else to go, why wouldn't they cast their lot with her and help her crush the Yunkai and the Harpy? So then she has her infantry with the Unsullied and her light cavalry with her Dothraki and her air force with the dragons. Then when Victarion arrives, she will have a navy. The fly in the ointment is the horn Victarion carries and his agenda. However, Black Flame might have an agenda that ends up getting the horn to Dany so she can choose who will be the other riders.

It would be nice to also have heavy infantry and heavy cavalry to counter those of Westeros, but she might not need them. Not only could she create pikemen units among her freedmen to stop cavalry charges, but she has the dragons and they will surely make even a warhorse balk. Or maybe I have been playing too much cyvasse...lol

Jon Connington is gay.. he's not getting seduced by Arianne.

[The Pale Griffin]

Can I just put in a word for Mace Tyrell. He's besieged Storm's End in two separate wars with massive hosts at his back and been unable to take the castle. Jon Connington manages to take it with a ruse. Mace Tyrell's ability to lead an army takes yet another hit. Poor Mace. He never had a chance.

[Kadence]

Sounds like a real good chapter. The speedy flow of information and plot developments reminds me of GoT and Storm. Interesting stuff about the CotF - Martin always maintains that "everything is connected" vibe. I wonder if they'll be paying a visit to Bloodraven's Weirwood Internet? :)

On Arianne trying to manipulate JonCon - I'd like see Arianne going all-out to seduce Connington, failing miserably to even alter his facial expression then feeling the blow to her ego while not realizing he's gay :D

Anyway, lots of "who will Aegon marry" discussion in here. My best bet is Sansa - I made a thread where I discuss it in more detail. But a summary of some of the most important stuff:

Political reasons

Currently Connington is going to refuse all offers out of hand. He's waiting for Dany. There's even a chance Littlefinger wanted to ally with Dany. All that will change because news of Dany's marriage will reach Westeros, perhaps rumors of her disappearance or death. At that point people are not going to expect her to arrive any time soon, if ever, and everyone will move on with their plans.

At that point there aren't many good options for Connington to pick from. Arianne is an awful choice - she brings an ally that should join them anyway, and with the Martells the only great house backing them they cannot win. Or if they win, they'd have a short shelf-life. Arianne would be incredibly short-sighted and I don't see it happening.

Margaery isn't happening. People are actually saying the Tyrells kill Tommen to support YG - who in their right minds would marry a thrice-widowed woman whose family had her last husband/king killed? No one would want a wife that treacherous. Only way YG+Margaery is even possible is if Tommen randomly dies before YG makes a play for King's Landing.

While Dany is the most valuable bride on the planet, Sansa is currently the second most valuable bride on the planet. Because she is the key to allying with Littlefinger. He is nomimal ruler of the Riverlands and de facto leader of the Vale. The Vale is probably one of the two strongest armies in all Westeros right now, along with Dorne. So Littlefinger offering Sansa's hand to seal the alliance would be a godsend for Connington once Dany is off the table.

Sansa being married isn't really a big hurdle because she's a virgin - this is probably the only reason LF hasn't tried to have sex with her yet. With provable virginity, he can get the marriage put aside if he needs to. Though he might need to ally with the High Septon, he's LF. He'd get it done.

Also Littlefinger we know is greedy, and we also know he's given the Lannisters up as a lost cause. I suspect his plans were to declare independence and use Sansa's ties to everybody to unify the Vale, Riverlands and North. But I don't see LF settling for half the kingdom when he could have the whole kingdom - he never foresaw YG. This is the opportunity of his life to become the most powerful lord in Westeros, the kingmaker behind the Iron Throne.

Textual Reasons

Then there's textual reasons. We know Martin loves two things: 1) surprises 2) emotional payoffs (good and bad). Everyone is expecting Dany to be the "Younger Queen". And yet, she's probably not going to appear in Westeros for ages - is Cersei really going to last that long?

Also Dany overthrowing Cersei offers no payoff whatsoever. Dany is hardly aware the woman exists. In fact it doesn't even have a "Cersei caused the prophecy to happen by trying to avoid it" payoff because Dany is unrelated to all of that stuff Cersei has been doing.

Yet Cersei has been a huge part of the ruination of Sansa's life and the destruction of her family. Queen Sansa "Targaryen" waltzing in and bouncing Cersei from power would be fitting and drive Cersei nuts.

Many of us think YG will sit the Iron Throne at the end of Winds of Winter - I think this is supported by the astonishing speed at which his arc is moving. Guy was just in Volantis, before you know it he's in Westeros and has conquered Storm's End? That's Ludicrous Speed! He's gone into plaid! Sitting the throne at the end of the book seems quite possible when at Ludicrous Speed. If YG sits the Iron Throne he needs to be married for a Younger Queen to exist because YG's win will be when Cersei officially ceases to be Queen, and it's hard to see any of the non-Dany candidates other than Sansa in that role. I think Dany and Sansa are the only two Younger Queen candidates who really make sense from a literary perspective.

Now there are also a couple good literary reasons for me to doubt Sansa: 1) The incredible detail Martin is going to with the Cersei/Dany parallels (poor leadership, hairless walks of shame, no sandals) - these parallels might be a setup to a future confrontation and 2) That once Aegon is exposed as not being Rhaeghar's son by Dany's people, it would be bad for Sansa, and I'm not sure if Martin would do grieving widow Sansa. But I do think a happy ending for Aegon/Sansa is possible even in that case - I don't think Aegon is necessarily doomed to die, widowing Sansa. With Blackfyre blood Aegon even has a decent shot to be a dragonrider. I don't expect Aegon=dragonrider myself but it's possible. It would be quite the subversion - the failed pretender becomes a prophecized hero anyway.

[ARYa_Nym]

Someone brought up the prospect of marriage to Connington already and he shot that down quickly. Arianne is going to set her sights on YG to one-up her brother most likely. They also want the usually cautious Doran to act fast and Arianne might force his hand.

[Wouter]

Littlefinger does not want to marry Sansa to Aegon; he wants to marry her himself, as his proposal to Cersei and his entire behaviour with her shows.

If LF is genuine about his plan to marry her to Harry, then this is only with the ultimate aim of arranging an accident for Harry once Sansa births a heir.

There is no way he is going to do something similar with Aegon though, not with Varys and Illyrio watching. He just doesn't have the means to manipulate events that he has in the Vale, which is LF's own turf.

Moreover, it is questionable if Sansa would want to marry a Targaryen considering what she has been told about the war, and equally questionable if Aegon would want to marry a daughter of Eddard Stark - especially with Jon Connington being his mentor, the man not exactly having fond memories of Eddard. Especially considering Aegon wouldn't even see her beforehand - there is a chance he will fall for Arianne and disregard Connington's advice because he wants to marry her (and he may estimate Dany isn't coming), but with Sansa being many leagues off there is no chance Aegon would be smitten enough with her to throw Connington's advice overboard.

Even if LF could and would arrange it, he would not control the kingdom. Varys would see to it that Sansa would be brought under their control, not the other way round (Aegon being brought under LF's control). There are signs that Aegon isn't that willing to be a puppet on a string for anyone, anyway. If he would happen to like Sansa and she would come to like him, Sansa would not be tied to LF at all anymore as she would get a power base of her own as Aegon's beloved wife.

If Varys would want Sansa as bride for Aegon (and I think both Varys and Connington will aim for Dany until it is "mathematically impossibly"), he would rather want her kidnapped out of the Vale rather than have LF being involved, I suspect.

LF is also likely to be aware of Dany and her dragons, and it would be prudent to not make a big move until he has a good idea what she is going to do. The dragons will always win out in the end, so being on the same side as Dany (or at least not being viewed as an enemy by her) is essential should she ever come to Westeros.

As for the younger queen, don't count out Margaery. She has done tons of damage to Cersei, has taken Joffrey and seems in the process of taking Tommen. If it is Dany, she will have to hurry up or there is nothing left for her to take. Sansa also isn't exactly in a position to do much about Cersei right now.